Mad as hell

Ian Snell. I like that guy.

Chris Duffy

What's up with Chris Duffy? It's night and day, the differing dope we hear on his play. Will Carroll just wrote in a for-pay section of Baseball Prospectus:

I’ve had at least three people tell me the Pirates' Chris Duffy looks terrible in camp, looking down and trying to say the right things. With his shoulder and hamstring taking away the strengths of his game, it’s going to be tough for him to hold onto CF, the position where the Bucs might be the strongest with Nate McLouth and Rajai Davis coming fast . . .

That paragraph is thoroughly laced with language straining toward hyperbole ("at least three," "looks terrible," "might be the strongest," "coming fast"). I read that as a combination of indecision (or imprecision) and general tendency. He's not sure how to spin the reports, so goes whole hog and moves on. Exaggeration is the easiest way to make a little thing big.

Yet with John Wehner, who coached Duffy some the last few years in the minors, now a broadcaster, and myself limited to what I hear on the radio for in-game analysis, I can only get the opposite picture. Wehner's promoting Duffy like crazy; so are the other guys. Wehner said today he's "running without a hint of trouble; free and easy; 100%" out there.

Here are my questions: (1) How does Duffy really look? I don't put a whole lot of stock into Carroll's comment, but let's assume he does have sources saying negative things. He did have to DH last week. (2) Are McLouth and Davis truly "coming fast"? I have not gotten that impression; not at all. Is there any chance either of those guys grabs the starting spot from Duffy before the end of the month? Finally, (3) if Duffy is looking "terrible" in the field, what business do the broadcasters have painting the opposite picture? Clapping harder is not going to influence Duffy's performance on the field. I'm all about the broadcasters being partisan, but they should also be professional, which includes being honest about the performance on the field. If they think it is virtuous or helping the team to do otherwise, I think they are mistaken.

My guess is Duffy looks good and bad; Carroll's sources call the glass half-empty and our broadcasters celebrate it as half-full.

Yet maybe one of you knows better? If so, fill me in.

Pirates and Twins

It's webcast only today. I have it on this computer. The starter for the Twins - LHP Glen Perkins - was awful in the first, throwing forty-some pitches, walking a bunch, and giving up extra-base hits to Jose Castillo and Jeromy Burnitz. It's hard to say how well Victor Santos ptiched; the broadcasters are clowing around, like no one is listening, carrying bullshit inter-inning conversations well into the action. More than once, Wehner had to slip in comments like "Santos takes ball one" because Lanny's head was somewhere else. Pay attention to the game, Lanny. It can suck for listeners, in any sport, when the play-by-play guy has such seniority over the color guys. There has to be at least one person more focussed on describing the action than on providing commentary--and that should be the play-by-play guy. No offense, but none of our broadcasters are that interesting in and of themselves. We tune into to learn not to hear John Wehner get cute with boasts about how he likes to eat cheeseburgers and knows nothing about wine. We tune into to hear the latest from the field.

Kip

Surgery is later today. Expert vascular surgeon Dr. Robert Thompson from Washington University in St. Louis will attempt to repair Kip's clogged axillary vein by replacing the damaged portion of the vein with a vein from Kip's leg. Dr. Thompson doesn't plan on removing the first rib, but will do what he has to once he gets in there. There's an outside chance Kip could be back later this season. Good luck, Kip, we're pulling for you.

Maddox released

In case you missed it, the Steelers released Tommy Maddox on Friday. So long, Tommy. Thanks for the memories. My favorite Tommy Maddox picture might be this one. Ryan chronicles the Life of Tommy here.

Pirates and Tigers

The still-undefeated exhibition Pirates play the Tigers at one Pirates lost this afternoon.

...I had the game streaming through the various computers and stereos around the house ... a few random notes ... not offered as highlights or anything ... just things I noted when near the computer with the open internets browser.

...Duckworth looked OK. Good breaking ball. Before the game, Littlefield did not name him as in the running for a rotation spot.

...Snell was good too.

...Eldred working the count, somewhat. He just went 3-2 and struck out on a pitch he regarded as a ball (he started walking to first). In his last at-bat, he backed away from a pitch that was not inside. He's working on it.

...joggin' Andrew: here toward the end of the game, McCutcheon lollygagged it on a non-infield-fly popup with runners on and two outs. Our KDKA guys duly noted it.

...web-only broadcasts tomorrow and tuesday. Back on the radio on Wednesday, against the Yankees, at 7:10.

Pirates and Red Sox

Red Socks? Never heard of them--this team any good? Game at 1pm on KDKA, gameday audio, MLB.tv too.

One for the sixth finger

Sixth finger? Dan Reynolds for the Pittsburgh Business Times:

[Tim] Schuldt [Pirates VP of marketing] also sought to remind reporters at a press conference at PNC Park's Home Plate Club Friday morning that although the Pittsburgh Steelers won their fifth world championship last month, the Pirates have been holders of five world championships for decades. "At the end of things, our vision for the club is to put that sixth ring on that sixth finger," Schuldt said."

Bones could find better, I'm sure, but in the meantime here are some pictures suggesting our dreams of much-be-blinged polydactylism.

WE WILL see KISS

Get used to the new slogan:

The phrase will be featured prominently throughout PNC Park and in the team's advertising. It applies to everyone from players and those in the front office to the grounds crew, Mr. McClatchy said in an interview.

WE WILL mow and water the grass. There'll be music too:

With less money going to professional fees, the team could create more spots, which include music from several recording artists including U2, KISS, John Lee Hooker and REO Speedwagon.

The 20 different TV ads begin airing on Monday. Rowdy and I used to have some KISS records. I wonder which song the Bucs will feature in their commercial. Great Expectations? Cold Gin? Sweet Pain? Psycho Circus? Lick it up?

Still undefeated

Every little bit counts.

Undefeated

Woo-hoo.

Based on that report from Dejan Kovacevic, it's looking the "we will" might end with "be patient at the plate."

"For the most part, we did an exceptional job," Tracy said. "We made defensive plays, we ran the bases very well, we threw a lot of quality strikes, made some quality pitches in situations when we needed them, and our at-bats today ..."

The patience at the plate clearly was Tracy's favorite aspect.

"I've told these guys: Get yourself in situations to swing in favorable counts. There are a lot of guys in Pirates uniforms who are going to get better if they maintain the approach they showed here. We did a terrific job of that."

Zach Duke starts today. There's no more radio, I think, until Saturday. Until then, we'll have to get out the baseball cards, spread them around the diamond, and fantasize our own play-by-play.

Play ball

This 1:05 game should be on your radio, your streaming MLB thinger, or maybe the what, the XM or the Sirius, I forget which.

New regalia

Just changed all the stuff in the store.

I know cafepress is not everyone's favorite purveyor of fine t-shirts. Any better ideas? It's free and it's easy, and the quality of the t-shirts is great. And where else can you get an Honest Wagner throw pillow? Tell me that wouldn't look great in your drinking room.

Game on

They will play some baseball today. Box score will be here.

I will have to go to the store to get some more beer. In the meantime, I will finish this Otter Creek Stovepipe Porter and get to bed.

We will

Hey, so that's gonna be the official slogan, DK reports.

2006 Pirate Slogans?

So what will replace the 2005 "Come hungry" slogan? Here's my preliminary thoughts - please help with better ideas:

"Come sleepy" (featuring Duke, Ollie, and Maholm striking people out, Jack and Jose turning circus double plays, and Jason Bay getting stranded at third by a Burnitz K. Camera zooms in on the scoreboard operator who dozes off after putting up another "0" in the 15th inning of a scoreless game. A montage follows of fans in the stands, happily sleeping through yet another low-scoring game.)

"Don't worry, be happy." (to music, featuring a smiling Randa, Casey, and Jack shaking hands and kissing babies in the stands.)

"Who let the vets out?" (to music, featuring Roberto, Casey, Randa, and Burnitz clowning around in the stands, shaking hands. Roberto playfully uses a walker.)

"New mascot!" (featuring Jolly Roger hugging fans and kissing babies in the stands.)

"Jason Bay!" (featuring Jason Bay roping extra-base-hits, healing the sick/deaf/blind, walking on water, etc.)

"Jacked up!" (featuring the suddenly beefy Jack breaking down bathroom doors to free various teammates, bowling catchers over Wiggy-style, and counting a huge stack of money.)

"The Pep Boys: Manny, Bay, and Jack!"

The umpire was kind of in my way

Andrew McCutcheon, the only teenager in camp.

Mardi Gras over

Last call.

Jack Wilson's three-year contract extension

Wow. ... I'm surprised. Can't think too clear-minded about it right now.

The Rotation

It's too early to panic about the rotation. Sure it's inexperienced and way left-handed. And it's thin too, as Dejan Kovacevic reports. Eight guys will not be enough for the season.

But eight guys should be plenty for March and April.

Defense

More from the Stats Geek.

Get well, Kip

Kip Wells faces season-ending surgery, Dejan Kovacevic reports, with a blood clot in his arm.

Reuters reports he could have the surgery next week.

Breakout candidates

So, how about that Tom Gorzelanny?

Trouble for the Welfare Queens

Wilbur sums up the gathering suggestions that the next CBA will not shovel so much money in the direction of Pittsburgh.

One thought about the current payroll. Bones busted me for making some unclear comment in praise of DL for fielding a team that's built around giving chances to young guys and B prospects at half the positions and throughout the rotation.

Arguments that the Pirates' scouting and player development were not world-class are compelling, I think, simply in light of the talent that's been available on the field. My sense is that any time there is "regime change" within an organization, the new regime is pretty likely to screw things up pretty good for several years. Everyone has to make and learn from their own mistakes. The last few drafts have looked OK to me, and we do have Zach Duke, so I'm not sure that the drafting and player development remains the problem it surely was some time ago. It takes several years to judge a draft, right, and the current crop of the youngest guys, which includes Walker and McCutcheon, looks promising. So I'm no fan of arguments that we need a new owner & GM because I expect any new owner, most likely, would go back to screwing it up.

Acquiring players is one thing. Another thing is actually playing prospects at the major-league level. It can't be wise, I believe, to field a team that has prospects at every position. I'd guess that context has a lot to do with development. I'd rather see a player mature with habits of winning as opposed to improving with habits of losing. You may not win if you throw in some veterans on one-year deals, but you will surely lose if you tour the country with 25 college players.

This gets to the payroll. Clearly you want, as a team, to get the most value from your payroll dollars. This means exploiting the first six years of a player's career -- his indentured servitude, we might call it. To give up, right now, on low-cost players like Jose Castillo, Chris Duffy, Oliver Perez, and Paul Maholm, does not strike me as wise roster management. Some of these guys will have to come through for the Pirates to ever field a team that wins as many games as the high-payroll all-star teams assembled by more successful franchises.

It's also clear that a team should not invest much money in long-term deals. The good players, these days, always get long-term deals. I don't want to see the Pirates sign any pitcher, for example, to a five-year deal. The risk is too great.

The issue to me is not the payroll. If the Pirates were to have raised the payroll that much in the past offseason, it would have required that they spend their money less efficiently. About the only scenario I could concoct where they wisely blow huge sums of money involved the Pirates persuading another team to engage in a salary-dump that doubled the Sean Casey proportions. It's not going to happen; the Phillies will not trade us Bobby Abreu & his two remaining years for Oliver Perez and Craig Wilson.

The payroll is where it is because the team is (a) carrying a lot of indentured servants and (b) not participating in the market for free agents that demand long-term deals.

So the issue is this: what do they do with the rest of the money? If payroll is covered by revenue sharing, what do they do with the gate receipts, the TV money, the other ways they raise dough? We've been told the Pirates were in a lot of debt. If that's the case, have they paid it off? If they have, all of the remaining money should go into coaching, scouting, and player development. As I've said before, the Pirates need to become a research university of ball teams if they plan to contend with smaller payrolls. And, the owners and staff are entitled to some compensation. There are other ways of investing money; no one can credibly argue that the Pirates' owners have an ethical obligation to make nothing on their investment. We could never have a baseball team if that was the climate.

Until I know for sure that the Pirates' owners are "making money hand over fist" -- I don't think anyone has access to their finances and can prove that -- then all this hating on the small-franchise clubs strikes me as little more than the knee-jerk conservative mumbo-jumbo about bootstraps, hard work, and the good reasons we should hate on welfare mothers and further grind them beneath our heels. Of course the wealthiest teams want to grow their competitive advantage by choking off the revenue sharing. Duh. You don't get rich by giving your money away to competitors.

Why should fans sympathize with these most wealthiest owners? Both Wilbur Miller and Joe Sheehan seem to suggest that it's the Pirates and Royals who are in the wrong. How do they know that? Is this not jumping to conclusions? And if we are going to jump to conclusions, why are we choosing this of all conclusions?

Do the fans of the Yankees and Red Sox really want competition that is not competitive? If so, why don't those teams become the Harlem Globetrotters, and hire a team of patsies to trounce six days a week? Is that what the fans want?

There's no doubt that money plays a role in the kind of talent a team can field. We could point at the Steelers -- football's most popular franchise -- and argue that the Pirates can't really use the "small market" excuse. If the NFL would let the Steelers have their own cable channel, it would be available, by popular demand, in every quarter of the country.

But there's also no doubt that the Pirates are laid pretty low, and they are not going to become the Steelers of baseball this season or next or anytime soon, even if they win the World Series this year and next.

So what do the fans want? Because there is a perception that the owners might be profiting "excessively" from the team, now we are all to side with Steinbrenner and Red Sox?

Not me, man. Steinbrenner does not get an ounce of sympathy from me. I want more parity and competition. It will be hard enough for the Pirates to compete for the services of the best players graduating to unrestricted free agency, even with the current CBA. With this proposed CBA with reduced revenue sharing, teams laid low by incompetence and ill luck will have an even smaller chance of getting back up.

And it's not about the owners. Owners are a necessary evil. So too, these days, are many of the better players. The game and the CBA should be about the fans. Only fans of the Red Sox and the Yankees would be well served by a "winner takes all" CBA.

Pirate fans should be penalized because their owners were incompetent? C'mon, get real. The victor has gotten plenty of spoils under the current CBA. As fans, we have to get real about the next CBA and stop accepting whatever nonsense the victors want us to believe without study or reflection.

Defense = Good

All hail the Stats Geek, who finally returns from his six-month vacation. Must be a rough life, being a stats geek, with all that Honolulu down time.

Spring training reports

Jim Sullivan has contributed some quality, full reports for OnlyBucs. The news on Sean Burnett is encouraging, and the change of managers appears to have done much for the better.

Steeler merchandise

I highly recommend the Terrible Towel with the XL score printed on it. Looks killer on the wall of the old drinking room.

KHALIFA projections

So, should we do the KHALIFA projections this year, or should we just blow it off? The short version would be Good Jack, Good Casey, Mediocre Burnitz, .320/.420 Castillo, Average Randa. Since everyone is coming off a bad year, it can't get much worse. It's the starting pitching I worry about, when I worry, which is rare. Why worry? Give 'em hell, Kip. Throw strikes, Ollie. Not much else to say.

Jack Wilson a Pirate through 2007

Ed Eagle explains how it is the Pirates have his rights through the 2007 season. Like Eagle, I thought Wilson would be eligible to file for free agency at the end of the 2006 season.

...as a reminder, here's Jeff's site from last year with the rights info. Of the guys that have been around, only Kip and Craig will be free agents at the end of this season. Here's to hoping both those guys play well enough to attract interest at the trade deadline. And here's to hoping the team plays well enough to make such trades undesirable.

No greenies in baseball

2006 will be our first "amphetamine-free" season. If reports, such as those from Baseball Prospectus's Will Carroll, are accurate, players have already moved past Dexedrine and other street pills for drugs designed for ADHD. Carroll reports that teams have had to invent policies for granting the "therapeutic use" waivers that Ritalin etc. users (and abusers) might want to file to continue playing in their usual self-consciously "amped-up" condition. I wonder what's the Pirates' policy? And, will it matter?

Bones, who used to comb the news for evidence of sudden steroids use (looking for fantasy sleepers), may hope the team has, uh, the most competitive policy. My guess is the effects of any such drug, taken regularly, are as much imaginary or projected as real. Once a stimulant feels normal, it's no longer so much of a stimulant. When the relational shifts are so familiar, they aren't really shifts at all.

(This is not to say that drugs are not addictive, or that they do not cause real physical effects. My point is that a cup of coffee for the grizzled caffeine addict is not "doing" as much as it does for a first-time drinker or a young person in his first summer of semi-daily espressos. The habitual use of anything blunts the initial advantage that initially encouraged habitual use. [I write this while aiming an accusing, sleepy-eyed glare toward my third cup of coffee.])

Given the ballplayer's proverbial respect for superstition and ritual, we might expect they would stick with whatever "works" and not be so willing to experiment with any deviation from usual practice. So I guess they'll all be on something like Dexedrine that's not yet banned. Anyhoo, I doubt it matters much one way or the other, though I do wonder if a team could not gain a competitive advantage by improving their quality of sleep (and speed of recovery) over the course of a season.

Carroll writes that some teams have decided to implement polices that are "more strict." Any idea what the Pirates have done? Any reason we should care?

Bettis to join NBC

Good times. His first game will be opening day, which will also feature the ring ceremony for the Super Bowl champs.

Jose Castillo out of classic

Good idea; there was no sense in sending him there to stand around as a backup.

John Madden's lousy game

Compelling article by Fred Pasek of Draftboardinsider.com, breaking down Madden's lousy Super Bowl performance in considerable detail.

Here's to Clark Haggans.

A defensive Michael Vick

Here is a long article, a few days old, on Polamalu from Jim Corbett of USA Today Sports Weekly. Seeing that I regard Mike Vick as Kordell Stewart in a dome, I'm not a fan of that comparison. But the article was good to read.

Interesting take here on the Super Bowl as a battle of Big Plays:

LeBeau changed his scheme the night before the game. Instead of blitzing Polamalu from everywhere, LeBeau mainly dropped Polamalu as an extra man into coverage, anti-cipating the Seahawks' maximum protection scheme and limiting Seattle's big plays to a minimum.

One of the three times he did blitz, Polamalu pressured quarterback Matt Hasselbeck into a critical, fourth-quarter interception that set up Antwaan Randle El's 43-yard pass off a reverse for the game-sealing touchdown to Super Bowl MVP Hines Ward.

And now Polamalu pretty much walks on water for his peers:

"It's hard to say Troy Polamalu is not the best defensive player in the game right now," Buccaneers linebacker Derrick Brooks says. "I love Brian Urlacher and I understand the need for edge rushers. But as far as a guy having the most impact, I'm not sure there's anyone better than Troy Polamalu for his impact in the passing game, the running game and the blitz game."

With the draft coming up, I've been thinking about that 2003 draft. Polamalu was everyone's top safety, with Mike Doss a close second. If I remember right, a lot of mock drafts had him slipping -- because of injury concerns -- to the end of round 1. Then the Steelers traded lower picks to get him at #16. What was the injury concern? Concussions? Back problem? Maybe it wasn't injury concerns, but there was some knock on Polamalu that had him available on everyone's mock draft board for the Steelers. Then the Steelers had to go get him at #16, surprising a lot of people; was it because everyone knew the Steelers wanted him (and nobody else--remember the Dexter Jackson "snub")? And you know the rest of the league looks up to the Steelers when it's time to study the art of the draft. Did any other news about that trading up ever come out?

That was also the draft, right, where they "reached" on CB Ike Taylor?

How not to drink like a champion today

First example, Trai Essex.

Yurendell De Caster

Is he making this team? When you read about his winter play, you have to be rooting for him. He sounds like a super-Mackowiak.

And I wonder if & how it's true that versatility tends to hurt a player's statistics. I certainly believe that statistics do not wholly express a player's ability, and that one player in different situations will produce different rate stats at the plate. How would versatility depress slugging percentage, for example? In Mackowiak's case, it led the manager to start him in centerfield, which he obviously could not handle well enough to have good at-bats between innings.

Big Jack

He's ginormous. Right on. Good work, Jack, in the offseason.

I boggle at the news of players who fail to devote most of the offseason to whatever habits -- physical, mental -- will best prepare them for the upcoming season & the high likelihood, upon success, of many riches flowing their way.

You'd think that self-interest would have them at nothing but watching film, lifting weights, doing sit-ups, stretching, and whatever else they could do to better learn the strengths and weaknesses of themselves & opposing players.

Here's to Jack. Good work, bro. If the season does not go well for you, no one can blame you for a want of diligence.

February PT estimates

Any pro season is more enjoyable when you have realistic expectations. The better you understand how the season might unfold, the more you anticipate events as they unfold. The more clearly you anticipate, the more you enjoy the surprises and the long-awaited hard-earned clearing of goals. All this makes the soap opera more gripping.

Fantasy baseball is not such a big thing with me anymore, but in my days I gained a serious edge over rivals by plotting out my own depth charts and PT estimates for every team. While I was no more accurate than ZiPS or PECOTA, the exercise was enough to give me a thorough knowledge of the relative degrees and nature of each team's depth chart. There are always guys, like Rob Mackowiak last year, who lack a starting job but stand to easily inherit as much PT as they can handle.

This year I worked out some estimates a week or two before the Burnitz signing. I saw enough to believe the Pirates actually needed Burnitz or someone like him. Here are updated estimates. Tell me what you think; we can hammer out these expectations together.

A few ground rules. For one, it is not so common for players to manage 500 PA in a season. Every team will have, on average, four or five guys who do this. It's very rare to have more than six 500 PA players on the same roster. And while that's no guarantee of a winning season, a team that only has one or two 500 PA players almost always disappoints, like the 1939 or the 1985 Pirates. Many fantasy publications predict a full season for all regular players. Since it can be hard to predict injuries or sudden drops in productivity, this may make sense. But I prefer to make estimates for a team as a whole, and I prefer to limit the number of 500 PA guys in the course of being pretty conservative with estimates. No rookie or player who has never achieved 500 PA in a season, for example, will get a 500 PA projection from me.

Another ground rule: the total PAs must add up (for NL teams) to 5750, which is more or less exactly where the team will finish if they play all 162 games. This is 650-700 per position. Positions involving likely pinch-hitters and defensive replacements should get 675 or 700; positions involving a regular player of no great of offensive ability (an eight-hitting shortstop, for example) get 650. To make up 5750, I allot 300 PA for "miscellaneous," which includes pinch-hitting.

Going around the horn, we'll start at catcher. Right now I see Ryan Doumit getting 350 PA, Cota 300, a standard time-share. No PT for Paulino at the moment. Doumit could be available for about 50 PA in pinch-hitting, but he's not needed yet. The Pirates look set at catcher to me.

At first base, I guess Sean Casey takes the first 550 PA, and I slot Craig Wilson in there for 150 PA. No PT for Bradley Eldred. An trip to the DL, a trade, or sudden suckitude by Casey or Wilson would open up some PT for him. I've no problem seeing him get a cup of joe, so the Pirates look set here.

At second base, Jose Castillo weighs in with a claim for the first 450 PAs. He only managed 414 and 393 PA last year, so it would be overly optimistic to go higher. Freddy Sanchez is a most capable backup; he scores the remaining 200 PA. (200 PA, for what it's worth, is about two full months of everyday play.) This position looks good to me.

At short, Jack Wilson will probably lead the team in PT and take 650. Sanchez is around to back him up, so the position also looks solid.

At third, Joe Randa looks like a 575 PA player, with Sanchez (50), and, to keep his name before us, Bautista (50) behind him. Again the depth looks good.

In the outfield, I see Jason Bay getting 625 PA in left. The remaining 75 PA in left I see falling to Nate McLouth. In center, Chris Duffy looks iffy, with the hammy problem and the great need to maintain an improbably high BA (or not be any use at the plate). I put him down for 450 PA but think that might be overly generous. McLouth inherits the remaining 250 PA there. If he's not a good option at CF, in your opinion, then swap some of the CF appearances with Jason Bay. I'd guess in most ballparks, an outfield with Bay and McLouth should have Bay starting in center.

In right, Burnitz stands for 550 PA. There's word he might sit against some lefties. And with his age, he might need some pine time to nurse owies. Yet he's managed 600+ the last two seasons, so a 550 PA expectation looks sound to me.

This leaves 150 PA for Craig Wilson in right. Wilson picks up 150 or half of the miscellaneous at-bats, too. He'll be an every day player, though many days he'll not appear until the team needs a pinch-hitter. Jody Gerut, right now, looks to me to be the first beneficiary of any injury to Bay, Burnitz, or Wilson, as he only has about 100 PA of miscellaneous to call his own. The other 50 PA, which brings the total to 5750, goes to Sanchez.

To sum up, the PT looks to fall this way: Jack Wilson 650, Bay 625, Randa 575, Casey 550, Burnitz 550, Castillo 450, Craig Wilson 450, Duffy 450, Doumit 350, McLouth 325, Sanchez 325, Cota 300, Gerut 100, Bautista 50.

The Pirates do not have the best-looking group of position-player prospects here, but I've followed all these guys for years now and think they still deserve the chances they'll get. I certainly can't fault Littlefield--in fact, I'd praise him--for constructing a roster that looks to give this collection of young players a good chance to realize the 10% or whatever chance they have of becoming star players.

The team has a lot of flexibility, a lot of depth, and plenty of dependable veterans. The position players look solidly mediocre, at worst, to me right now. This is one of the reasons I think a solidly mediocre season--I call it .500 ball--is well within reach of this team.

No Honus Wagner Bed & Breakfast

Bummer.

Steelers shrine

This looks a little like my screensaver. Nice use of a matrix wipe on page one.

Kent Tekulve, Advance Scout

DK reports. Tekulve will travel around, scouting 150-160 games.

"The Pirates did not employ anyone in such a role the past three years, general manager Dave Littlefield explained yesterday, because the task of analyzing future opponents was performed through a combination of scouting agencies, statistical services and video analysis.

That method drew private grumblings late last season from a few coaches and players, who complained they were not as prepared as other teams. In September, one coach showed the Post-Gazette a scouting report on one of the Chicago Cubs' position players that left blank spots next to categories such as "hitting weaknesses" and "defensive weaknesses.""

I wonder if, to scrape up enough change for Teke, Ogden released the hounds on the computer simulation people responsible for the Tike-hits-third embarrassment.

Welcome back, Teke. All hail advance scouting!

Happy Valentine's Day

We like to start fun holidays at sundown the night before, so I'm off to celebrate a fun holiday in a fun style. Let's love, that's my motto. More rum in the punch!

I will be offline until Wednesday or Thursday. This is a good time to live the sports-free life if you can. Even the NHL is down for the Olympics (yawn).

One last bit of love. The NFL season will open in in Pittsburgh.

Lineup predictions

The PG ran this thinger on Sunday.

One of my pet peeves, no offense Ron Cook, is the whole "significant improvement, but not enough for a .500 season" hedge that we'll get everywhere from folks who want to be optimistic but are deathly afraid that others will regard them as pollyanna.

A .500 season is not that difficult to manage. It's what we ought to expect from most every team. It's winning half your games. As a fan, I'm more than a little annoyed by all the talk about .500 as though (a) it would represent some significant improvement, and (b) it would difficult to accomplish.

The Pirates' run of sub-.500 seasons has been assisted by a run of mid-season roster rebuildings. What made last year's team a 67-win team was not some inherent lack of quality among the players who started the season. What made them a 67-win team was the tearing down of the lineup, through injury and trade. Had they kept those same players they started the year with, and played with them through thick and thin and not lost some to injury, they may well have been a 75-win team.

No one can predict injury, so all we can do is evaluate the roster as it's constructed today. When I say I think this is a .500 looking team, an average roster, that's not meant as a great compliment or a great cause for optimism.

How to get Super Bowl tickets

The February 2006 issue of GQ included an unsigned story (page 70) on how the NFL disbursed the tickets for this year's Super Bowl. It's not online; I don't know why. The subtitle was hilariously ironic: "We break down the crowd at this year's Super Bowl in Detroit. Don't look too hard for real fans!"

Here's the lowdown. The AFC Champ gets 17.5% of the tickets. The NFC Champ gets 17.5%. The host-city town (this year, Detroit) gets 5%. The other 29 teams gets 35%. That's 75%. The other 25% go to the NFL home office.

Teams that go to the game split them three ways: to players and staff, to sponsors, and to season-ticket holders. Sponsors are given the right to purchase Super Bowl tickets in their contracts. Players also have dibs over season-ticket holders, who receive the leftovers by lottery. If sponsors, players, and staff account for 75% of each team's ticket pool, that's about 26% of all tickets not going to season-ticket-holding fans.

Teams that are not playing or hosting typically hoard all their tickets for sponsors, players, and staff. So their 35% of all Super Bowl tickets were distributed to these people. Let's assume the host city gives most of their 5% to players, staff, and sponsors. The NFL office, the article reports, gives only 6% of their share (500 pairs) to fans.

To come to the point: add these numbers up, and you learn that 88% of all the Super Bowl tickets were given to former players, staff of NFL teams, sponsors of both the league and the individual teams, and whatever VIPs the NFL front office admires.

I would assume that none of those people paid for their tickets in the traditional sense. Staff and players paid dues, sure, and sponsors, well, they buy advertising that enriches the people who give them tickets in their contracts. Still, most of these people fly to Detroit with a ticket that could be easily flipped for $3,000 cash in the hours before the game. The temptation to party all weekend, go to the stadium, dump the tickets for massive cash on a last-minute decision, and then hit the shoe store--it must be pretty great.

So that's how the Steelers fans got their tickets--they bought them from people who are or got them from former players, NFL staff, or NFL sponsors.

And that's not all. Given the fact that Steeler fans are everywhere, I'd further guess that many people who got tickets through other teams were Steeler fans. It's not far-fetched to imagine a Steeler fan working at some bank, for example, in Denver that does business with the Broncos. And Steeler fans have a way of making themselves and their loyalty known. Some bank gets two tickets, the Steelers are in the game, how is the President not going to give them to the VP or branch manager who wears the Jack Lambert jersey on Sundays?

One last comment. I must admit, I don't buy GQ for the articles. They are nice benefit, though, something that occasionally catches my eye. I buy it strictly for the naked ladies, which are actually quite good.

World Baseball Classic

Players only manage so many professional PA per year. If these are exhibition games, they're an insult to the teams, who need to practice together to get ready for Opening Day. If these are not exhibition games, they will further dilute the talent pool in the big league games. It's obvious in the case of starting pitchers, who will have their seasons extended without having their professional expectations (say, 180 or 200 IP) reduced. But the same thing will happen to position players. The WBC games will put what, about 50 PA on some the game's best position players, who will then be asked to play 750 PA, which usually is not going to happen.

The teams most hurt will be the teams with the most to lose--the teams whose success or failure depends most on a smaller group of players. Every game Jason Bay plays for Canada is more or less one game less that he'll play for the Pirates. I'd believe otherwise if the AB distribution from year-to-year suggested that many guys are capable of staying healthy and competent for 700-PA years.

The season is already too long, and this makes it longer. What they could do, something I would support, is shorten the regular season. They could bring it back to about 144 games, add the WBC, open later and start the expanded playoffs sooner.

Whisenhunt to stay

All hail the Wiz, who has withdrawn from consideration for the Raiders' coaching job and will be back next year. His lowball gestures spurned by both Louisville coach Bobby Petrino and Whisenhunt, the diabolical Al Davis will now attempt to attach his marionette strings to Art Shell.

More Steelers Illustrated

If you count the mini-helmet on the Olympic issue, that was five Steeler covers in a row. I know most of them were regional, but think of the people in Cleveland getting that week after week after week.

Officials blame loss on Seahawks

The Sports Pickle has another scoop.

...updated ... OK, Ryan covered the handshake thing yesterday. When I see a post that starts off about Duke basketball, I admit my eyes glaze over ...

Pirates Q & A

This week's installment discusses promotion, mainly. Two thoughts come to mind. One, a lot of fans starve with the Pirates and feast with the Steelers. I'd go nuts or give up sports if I only had the Pirates to follow, but that may just be me. Two, the Pirates will sell new player jerseys when they win more than half of their games. There's little the promotion team can do. You can't sell a losing team. The core or majority of the Pirates' next big fanbase is pretty much like the Steelers' fan base. They will be purists of a sort, and purists can only get excited, generally speaking, about winning teams.

Tuesday Midnight Quarterback

Not a day that many Steeler fans could do much thinking on the internets, I suspect, with the likelihood of all-day Monday hangovers and all-day Tuesday hangovers and all-day Tuesday parade action, too.

So let's call it Wednesday Morning Quarterback, where Gregg Easterbrook stars in one of his best columns ever. In this one, Easterbrook is so right about so many things, I can only wonder if he's from Pittsburgh. Save it for tomorrow morning, when you are somewhat more fresh and clear-minded.

All hail Gregg with two g's.

Everyone loves a parade

If you can pull your kids out of school and still make it for the parade, by all means do it. It could be another 26 years before they have the chance to enjoy another one.

Tempers, tantrums, conspiracy theories

Wow, some heads sure did explode about the officiating. I did not realize the extent of the head-exploding among some self-styled "neutral" parties until the last hour or so, as I just scoured the coverage out there. The outrage! The hyperbole!

Some unsolicited advice: if your headline and argument is foaming at the mouth, you have no credibility when you claim "neutrality" or even rationality in paragraph one or three. Get a blog, you wacko nutjobs, until you get a more grown-up grip on your prose and emotions.

I can understand the bad press about the overall inconsistency of both teams. I can understand the thesis that runs, "both teams played bad, but Seattle played worse, so the Steelers won." OK, maybe. You could play it that way I suppose.

In contrast, some of the things people wrote last night and early this morning - for generally reputable sports sites - should be flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct. It's just embarrassing.

Neither team played a great game. The Steelers, however, had more and better big plays. And they were more poised, they were better coached, and they better executed on special teams. They did more little things better. Total yards? Time of possession? Since when did those stats determine the outcome? Quarterback rating? Who gives a damn? When did we start talking like QB rating "should" determine the final score--if the officiating is "perfect"? There are all kinds of ludicrous arguments out there to the effect that Seattle "won" or "dominated" (!) the game. Wow, wow, wow. I am shocked I say, shocked at the epidemic of unsportsmanlike SB analysis.

The team with the most points won. And they deserved to win - they scored twice as many points as the other team, for crissakes.

Steeler fans and Steeler players have nothing to apologize for, and nothing to feel guilty about. The idea did not even occur to me until I read it in print. I imagine 99.8% of all Steeler fans feel the same way. It was a football game like hundreds of other football games. A little disappointing to watch, but hardly a disappointment to finish. Or savor all day today, next week, and for years to come.

When did they perfect officiating, and since when did we have zero tolerance for close-call ambiguity? That should be water off the duck's back to any seasoned observer of the game. What's gotten into you non-Steeler fan people? Are you all so easily rattled as Mike Holmgren? He threw in-game tantrums and whined like a guilty child at the end of each half, and everyone identifies with him?

Why are some of you so high-strung? The paranoia about government and hatred of judicial authority. This is football: save that for your politics. Don't crap in the stands. The refs are firemen and ambulance drivers, Boy Scout leaders and church deacons, Dads and Pop-Pops, upstanding citizens in most every sense of those words. Get a grip, you crazy gripers.

Cowboys Nation?

Joel Ryan reports for E! Online that SB XL had the biggest audience since SB XXX.

Sunday's Super Bowl XL, pitting the Seahawks against the victorious Pittsburgh Steelers and featuring a muted halftime performance by the Stones, averaged an estimated 90.7 million viewers, ABC said Monday. That's up about 5 percent last year's big game, which typically is never quite as big as when the Dallas Cowboys are playing, which they weren't.

Per Nielsen Media Research, Super Bowl XL's performance is the best since 1996 when, as is the rule, the Cowoys played.

What do those two Super Bowls have in common ... hmmm ... Ryan says XXX had the biggest because the Cowboys were in it. Why then was this a big audience? Seattle? Or maybe it was the Rolling Stones? Hard to say what XXX and XL had in common, or what there was about XL that might explain why the audience was so large. Luck? Oh I know--bad officiating!

Another thing I don't get is this. At every Steelers road game, there is a massive Steelers crowd. This is often interpreted as the Steelers' "travelling fans." Who travelled, for example, to Denver to see the Steelers? On one week's notice? When airfares were about a grand a pop?

What folks don't seem to get is that Steelers fans can be found, in great numbers, everywhere. Those 15,000 Steelers fans who got into Mile High for the AFC Championship live, for the most part, in Colorado. And a good share of those non-ticket having Steelers fans partying outside and around the stadium last night? They live in Detroit.

I know that Western PA buys a lot of jerseys and shirts and so forth, but the Steelers did not lead all NFL teams in 2005 apparel sales for that reason alone. And did not do that on the strength of the January 2006 playoff games.

Are the Cowboys really America's Team? (Azibuck, you don't answer this one OK.)

...UPDATE: E! Online edited out that stuff about the Cowboys. I did not make that up, and I'm glad I bothered to blockquote the relevant part. Someone must have smacked Joal Ryan on the ear for that nonsense. I guess it is E! and what can we expect.

Great moments in Super Bowl history

If you head over to SI's website, you can find this slideshow of the "Top 10 Super Bowl Moments" (under Super Bowl History, left side, "full coverage" page). Marcus Allen's 75-yard run appears as number 10. It put the Raiders up 35-9. It's no stretch to argue that Willie Parker's run will go down as a greater "moment": it was longer and far more important to the outcome of the game. But if that deserves recognition as the new #10 greatest moment in Super Bowl history, where do we rank the El pass to Ward, which was even more great and even more memorable?

Who will ever forget that play?

Nestled into a setting rich with mistakes and the mundane, were moments as great and as memorable as any in the history of the game.

Big plays

Some quick notes before we go out there and work like a champion today:

Back in the mid-90s, Ms. Rowdy, who is not much of a sports fan and never has been, caught an interview with Bill Cowher on the TV. Cowher's early teams were characterized by stifling defense and safe, ball-control offense. They had an annoying weakness: with a bounce here, a little luck there, and a 50-yard completion, another team could beat them after being shut down all game long. Witness that Championship game the Steelers lost to the San Diego Chargers. Cowher, probably thinking of that, was saying the team needed some big-play ability to get to the next level. "We need more BIG PLAYS," he said. Ms. Rowdy thought that was hilarious for some reason. For years, Ms. Rowdy offered that as her contribution to any sports conversation that broke out around her.

All hail the big play! We got big plays.

The Seahawks did not play like the second-best team in the NFL yesterday. On the other hand, that was not the best of the games the Steelers gave us in this year's playoff run. The early penalties on the Steelers' opening drive were a real buzzkill -- like someone turning on all the lights just when the party's getting started so they can look for their keys. The game played and looked more like your average 1pm Sunday game than it played and looked like an AFC playoff game.

The officials called way more penalties than I expected. I'll have to do the research some time and see if it is not the case that fewer penalties are called in the Super Bowl. Perhaps that impression was burned into my mind from Super Bowl XXX, when the Cowboys got away with everything.

Seahawk fans can complain about some of those calls, but there was nothing yesterday remotely like the Polamalu non-interception. It's a sorry reflection on the state of officiating in the NFL, that everyone watching the games these days expects to see the officials screw things up or make calls that scream "fix."

I did not like the pictures of the players with the Lombardi trophy. It creeped me out to see the Steelers mugging with a trophy they had not yet won. The best one was Cowher, holding it at arm's length and giving it a glare that said, "Why are they torturing me like this?" Players should have to win the big game before they are allowed to mug with Baby Lombardi.

Where was Terry Bradshaw? What a friggin' knucklehead.

When you are up by 11 points, there should be no passing on third-and-goal EVER. I thought we learned that lesson in that Denver AFC Championship game when Kordell threw the pick that went the other way & turned the game going into the half.

The Monday after the Super Bowl should be a national holiday.

Parade tomorrow. Enjoy the day.

Drink like a champion tonight

All hail the Steelers, your NFL Champions!

Super Bowl XL: Seahawks and Steelers

Here we go.

...halftime thoughts: well, huh. The score is about or close to what I expected, but how we got there, not what I expected. The Steelers did not come out with domination - they are playing a C game - and still they lead. The Seahawks looked rattled going into the half.

There should be no "we got a huge lead, there's 22 minutes left to play, what do we do now" type of mini-letdown, like we saw last week in Denver. Hopefully the team comes out with steadily increasing intensity and concentration (no more dropped passes, no more dropped INTs).

Cowher said something about getting the running game going, which is true. Seattle's the kind of team the Steelers want to drive a power back through. You have to take what they offer, and right now they are offering their gut with so many guys in pass coverage. Yet the team stayed with Willie Parker. Just as I was thinking they should start to lean on Bettis, Ben connects for some throws. Still I'd like to see more power running - for some first downs, for crissakes - in the second half.

Certainly better than the last Super Bowl. The Steelers have dodged a bullet or two and have the momentum and the opportunity coming out of the half.

Super Bowl prediction: Bones

Lopsided domination. Steelers' D shuts down Shaun and challenges Hasselbeck to step up. Despite his fearsome sagittal crest and perhaps due to improper nail care, Hasselbeck wears goat suit and wilts, Jake-style. Meanwhile, Ben plays like a champion today and lights up the Seattle secondary. ARE returns a punt back for a TD, and the Steelers serve up more whoop-ass: Steelers 41, Seahawks 13.

Super Bowl Prediction: Tunch

Tunch Ilkin describes his expectations for the Tribune-Review. It makes a world of sense to me. He's a fellow homer, but he's been as right as they come down the stretch.

Super Bowl Prediction: Rowdy

I expect no surprises from the Steeler offense: they will take what the Seahawks offer and score early. So far in the playoffs, the opponent has played like they were intimidated by the Steeler running game and underwhelmed by the passing game. The thinking appeared to be that the Steelers were one-dimensional, and if they could stop the run, Ben would force some throws - he has been playing more like a gunslinger - and turn the ball over.

It won't matter much what Seattle does. They won't come out with a run defense on every down, but it won't matter. The Steelers should be too much for them either way. Unless the wideouts drop an unusual number of passes, I see the Steelers getting an early lead and going into the half with the score 10-3 or 13-7 or 14-7.

If the Steelers can extend the lead to double digits, they will switch gears and go into pound, maybe punt, and always-bleed-the-clock mode. In other words, a Steeler victory tomorrow will look a lot like every other Steeler victory. Don't be surprised if the Seahawks drive the ball on the Steeler defense, especially if the secondary reverts to mid-season form and drops the easy INTs. Yardage is one thing, points are another. In fact, if the Steelers have a good lead, I am fine with seeing long, time-consuming drives, especially if they result only in three points for the blue team.

Shaun Alexander carried my FFL team to a championship this year, so I know what he's been all about. He has benefitted from the soft schedule, and the Seahawks have overindulged his taste for being a one-man offense. This kind of superstar-driven attack can be thwarted. A top-quality defense can take away the top threat of a top-quality offense. The Steeler defense is especially well prepared to contain Alexander. Once this happens, the Seahawks will be forced to throw the ball. And they could be effective; who knows; I don't; the Patriots, for example, were always able to throw the ball by spreading it around against the Steelers' defense. The wideouts would be better prepared to take over the game, however, if they had any experience doing so in the regular season. Seattle's offense has a chance, but it's not a good one.

The zebras will not flag much of anything in the game. This can only help Pittsburgh, since they've been -- I don't know, perhaps it is the style of play -- more hurt by big penalties recently. The officials never get much into meddling in the Super Bowl. It is a good time for illegal moves; the more aggressive team at the start will have an edge for it. I don't expect we'll see much in the way of questionable pass interference or holding calls. If we do, we know that someone has bought a little fixin'.

They lose if they do not score on their long drives -- Steeler football makes short games, games in which both sides do not get the ball all that often. They have to get points when they've had the ball for half a quarter. The Steelers also lose by letting the Seahawks jump out to an early lead. Well, they don't lose necessarily, but that's the last thing you want to see as a Steelers fan. The Steelers are not built for comebacks. They want to knock the Seahawk to the ground ten minutes into the game, and then get Casey Hampton to sit on him the rest of the way.

Also keep an eye on the special teams play. When they have been vulnerable the last few years, the special teams have given up big return yardage and turned over the momentum late in close games. I'll have my eye on the likes of Sean Morey. Special teams better bring an A game tomorrow.

My final score prediction: Steelers 27, Seahawks 17. What's yours?

Intense, vocal and spontaneous

Fun story in the Seattle Times about a Steeler fan who wore Seattle colors around town this week.

Is it me or has the Post-Gazette gotten a lot more bloggy on us? Lots of silliness that too many papers regard as "beneath" their "dignity." Good for them I say.

Cowher's win-one-for-Columbus speechifying reminds me of that other coach. I've long been boggled at the low opinion the self-styled sports punditry seem to have of Cowher. If the Steelers win Sunday, however, my guess is Cowher will finally cross into a New World. After winning a "big game," perhaps more attention will go where it ought to go. A .629 winning percentage over 13 seasons is, um, above average I think. Imagine if one manager were to guide a baseball team to thirteen straight years of .629 ball. That would be thirteen years averaging 102 wins per season.

I know, I know, there's no parity in football. So we're comparing apples and oranges. Still, despite whatever spittle and flat-earth nonsense comes pouring from his mouth, he's been remarkably good at winning.

Here's hoping that Coach Columbus can guide this ship to that earthly paradise . . .

Polamalu "tweaks" ankle

Story here.

For a moment there I thought they already played this game, and the Steelers won it.

Get well Troy. Get well quick.

Let's hear that Steelers polka one more time

Does any team in pro sports have better team songs? We have a Steelers song for fans of every genre.

If you've been living under a rock, and just crawled out, don't miss "Puhlahmahlu," the Mr. Devious take on the Sesame Street classic.

Steelers Fever has more. And the PG covered the subject a few weeks back.

Amateur and pro gamblers like Pittsburgh

Great report here by Stephen Nover for Covers.com.

Some have a clear perception the Steelers will be loose having experienced big games before, while the Seahawks could come out tight. They feel the Seahawks are vulnerable, stepping up in class having not faced a major challenge away from home.

The Seahawks have yet to beat a team with a winning record as the visitors. Seattle also has lost and failed to cover six of its past seven following a bye week.

The Steelers, on the other hand, are the best road team in the NFL having won 16 of their last 18 away games. They won nine road games this season, the first in history to accomplish the feat.

Pittsburgh ranked No. 3 in rush defense. Their physical 3-4 defense can cause problems for Shaun Alexander, who has rushed for more than 45 yards just once in four playoff games. Seattle led the NFL in scoring, averaging 28.3 points a game.

However, Seattle detractors can point out those statistics were padded by the Seahawks playing six games against weak division foes San Francisco, St. Louis and Arizona. The Seahawks averaged 34 points against those teams.

For sure I like the Steelers this Sunday, but there's no such thing as a lock in football. Seattle has probably at least a one-in-three chance of stealing the win here. Nover again:

Recently The Gold Sheet newsletter ranked the Giants-Ravens game in 2000 as the worst of the 39 Super Bowls.

Could this season’s Seahawks-Steelers matchup turn out just as bad?

Betting patterns indicate it’s possible. All the money came on the Ravens in Super Bowl XXXV and the bettors were right. The Ravens dominated the Giants 34-7, in what was a very boring non-contest.

Once again, as Nover reports, all the money appears to be on Pittsburgh.

I love a good rout. The more the Steelers score and the less the Seahawks score, the more I enjoy the game. No doubt about it. I watch too many football games to think a 24-21 game is a "better" game than one in which the Steelers win 41-0.

Not long now

So I've been blissfully mellow the last ten days or so, and I've been seeing all kinds of Steeler football in my sleep. For some reason they keep playing Denver again in my dreams. One night, they beat Denver and then they had to play Denver again. The game ended and the zebras started waving their arms and saying, OK, do-over, do it again, OK, that game didn't count.

I've seen some real highlights, too. One I can't forget went like this. Jerome Bettis takes the ball at the Steelers 20 and runs outside. Implausible, I know. But it gets better. He turns up field near the sideline and the ball pops out. It shoots maybe twenty yards down the field.

Sean Morey, running the other way for some reason, catches the ball on a wrong-way sprint toward Bettis. He sticks the ball out like a quarterback. Bettis takes the hand off from Morey, sheds and steamrolls tacklers, and rumbles the rest of the 80 yards for the touchdown.

I woke up before I could see if Bettis made it to the oxygen tank, or if they had to bring the oxygen to Bettis.

I can still see it. Sean Morey?

I don't know what it means--nothing, I guess--but I'll take it as a positive sign. Sean Morey must be destined for some kind of greatness this Sunday.

Jerramy flaps jaw

Peezy's pissed.

Media Day

From the Media Day blitz today:

Two feel-good stories about Larry Foote raising the son he sired when he was 14. The AP piece is marred by some trash-talking from Jerramy Stevens, who publicly requests an ass-whooping.

Hines Ward quotes Cowher quoting the famous Howard Beale "mad as hell" line.

Big Ben finds it easier to meet women on the internet. Don't laugh, some of these internet girls are hot.

Super Bowl music

In music news, Stevie Wonder will perform before the game, Aretha Franklin will sing the national anthem (along with Aaron Neville, Dr. John, and a 150-member choir), and at halftime we'll see the Rolling Stones. I'd much rather see Stevie and Aretha at halftime and the Stones do the anthem.

Bones to watch Super Bowl on TV

Bad news for me here, but this explains why Willie and Brett haven't been returning my calls.

All hail Detroit

Dan Wetzel reports for Yahoo! Sports that 98.9% of the good citizens of the Motor City will be rooting for the Steelers.

All hail that! More than anything this week, as we bask in the waiting for the big game, I want the win not for myself (so big of me) but for all the new Steeler fans who have never experienced a Super Bowl victory.

And welcome all new people on the bandwagon. Good seats are always available. Bring friends--the more the merrier.

Festival of Piracy

Sounds like PirateFest drew a lot of people.

DK had a prospect roundup in yesterday's PG.

John Perrotto reports Vogelsong will get another shot at the rotation.

No real news here. Now back to your recurring football daydreams.

No football today

Pretty good day off to have.

Steelers Illustrated

That's three straight covers on Sports Illustrated.

Lemieux vs. Wagner

Dejan Kovacevic tries to stir things up at the end of his Q&A. It must be frustrating for him, with the city thinking of only one thing (PirateFest!), and no one but the likes of me reading his spring training coverage.

Bill James says something that is true and hard to accept, namely, that you always assess a current or living player's rank in history as conservatively as possible. Here in the week Lemieux retires, he may look like the Wagner or better of professional baseball. Heck, Bettis may too, if he retires from the endzone of a victory in Ford Field. But raise that same question - who was better in his sport - fifty years from now ... what would you expect?

Plus you have to accept that hockey is somehow the equal of football or baseball. Even if we play anthropologist and argue that kumquats are equally good as apples and oranges, you're just plain nuts if you think hockey has been the equal of those sports in the life of Pittsburgh and the surrounding area. So ... the greatest athlete in the city's history? We could have all of history's greatest ping-pong player in this town - a ping-pong player who walks on water and never lost a game - and still she wouldn't be the greatest athlete in the city's history. No offense, Mario, but the city's sports history - at least in regards to the twentieth-century - will always be about football and baseball before it's about hockey. And that's not all that unusual for an American city; it's not like Pittsburghers ignore professional hockey any more than the average American sports fans of other major cities.

That said, all hail Mario!

Steelers envy

Here is some funny anti-Steelers snark. I like the poll, "Where is Jerome Bettis from?" and better, the story, "Seahawks glad they don’t have to watch a Super Bowl with the Seahawks in it."

“I got a really bad concussion two weeks ago and that could have ended my season,” [Shaun Alexander] said. “But thank God it didn’t because that means I’d have to sit on the sidelines and watch this horrendous team. Puke.”

Steelers Nation is quite large, consisting of what, half of all the more knowledgeable and serious fans and at least two-fifths of all the numbnuts. So there will be a lot of people riding the Bus come Super Bowl weekend.

The once-a-year fans--those hothouse flowers who watch the game "for the commercials"--will surely pile on the Seattle bandwagon. Anyone can root the underdog and get at least that milquetoast pleasure of having stood on the high moral ground. And a whole nother class of fans, say, the drunks in the Cleveland and Cincinnati bars, will wallow in the low moral ground and just root from pure hatred and envy.

It shocked me at first, but it makes some sense after contemplation: a lot of people will root against the Steelers next week.

White jerseys and memories of Super Bowl XXX

By now you should have heard that Cowher chose white when asked what unis the Steelers (the home team) want to wear in Detroit.

Sunday night, mid-Seahawks game, I surfed the NFL.com website trying to determine if Pittsburgh would be listed as the home team or the visitor. I wanted visitor; I wanted to see them in white again.

So all hail the white.

. . . When will they roll out the Super Bowl XL - Steelers shirts? (Will they?) Courtesy of Scoop, I've been wearing a Super Bowl XXX - Steelers t-shirt for ten years. It's sadly tattered and needs replacing. Maybe the AFC Champ shirt is all they are printing this year? Maybe I need to head down to the Giant Iggle?

. . . Super Bowl XXX was ten years ago from this coming Thursday - January 26, 1996. I barbecue'd outdoors in frigid, frigid weather, in Iowa, on one of those mini-Webers. I recommend the uber-Weber if you fire up the briquets in winter weather. That heat goes fast. The burgers changed color a little bit, the coals burnt out quickly, and I had to bring the meat indoors and finish them on the stovetop.

The Steelers played tight in the first quarter, and the Cowboys got some points. Then the Steelers kicked ass for three quarters but still managed to lose. In addition to the O'Donnell's INTs, which everyone remembers, the Cowboys also got points off a truly egregious illegal pick at the goalline. That don't flag that shit in the Super Bowl; Whisenhunt could look it up and add that play to the script, but the Steelers won't need to cheat I suspect. The game was much closer than the final score. There's little margin for error in a game at this level. The Steelers played well - especially the defense - but got outscored and lost. End of story.

The Steelers have never played poorly in a Super Bowl, and I don't expect that to change any time soon.

The job isn't done

Says Faneca.

I found it interesting to contrast the Steeler quotes, mostly all about winning the next game, with the Seahawk quotes, which touched upon domestic realities, but also admitted a preconceived plan to fail:

"You are looking at a very good Pittsburgh Steelers team. And that's real," Hasselbeck said. "Failure in this game is a real option. So we're going to have to work really hard and be as focused as we've ever been."

Translation: "Where are Troy and Ike? If I just throw it to them, maybe Peezy won't rip my head off."

Matt, failure might be an option, but usually crapping your pants is involuntary.

Champs!

WOW. The most enjoyable Steelers football game I've seen in 26 years. All hail the Steelers' coaches and players for a brilliant gameplan and nearly flawless execution today. Ben was en fuego, going 21 for 29 for 275 yards, 3 TDs and 0 turnovers. The defense pistol-whipped Plummer and his seemingly overrated squad. As predicted, Jake imploded and gave it up to the tune of 2 INTs and 2 fumbles lost.

The whoop-ass has generated lots of good quotes and commentary:

The AP has the Broncos as "outschemed, outplayed and pushed around all day."

Cris Carter on the Steelers:

"It's probably the most remarkable run of any playoff team ever, having beaten a division rival in Cincinnati, manhandled the Super Bowl favorite in Indianapolis and dominated the Broncos in Denver."

Ike Taylor admits 10 dropped INTs this season, but knew he'd catch one in the postseason.

For the Casey Hampton:Hungry Hippo analogy and more funny stuff, check out Ryan's blog.

The Super Bowl line opens with the Steelers being 3.5 to 4 point favorites.

Can of whoop-ass

It's open...

Game On

Steelers strike first! Here we go...

Steelers strike second! Sweet 10-0 early lead. Jake's gonna give it up some more...

AFC Championship Game: Steelers at Broncos

Bones has the prediction right. I will be at a bar where fire fighters and paramedics hang out. As the parrot says, Here we go Steelers.

Here we go.

Brad St. Louis snapped that ball from Cincinnati to St. Louis

I miss Myron Cope. Chico Harlan for the PG watched the game with him last Sunday and produced this long story.

Steeler superstitions

Story here. This one is the freakiest:

"Now this is going to sound disgusting," said Johnny Schmidt, 31, of New Matamoras in eastern Ohio. And he's right: Besides not eating or going to the bathroom for the entire game "under any circumstances," he leaves the same rub of snuff in his mouth for the entire game.

Without spitting.

He spit during the game when the Steelers lost to the Denver Broncos by one point in 1989. He's not spitting Sunday.

He knows his habit is unhealthy and he has kicked it except for game days. "Right now it's borderline making me sick because I have quit and I don't want to do it any more. But there's no way I'm screwing with it."

If I'm doing my math right Johnny started this when he was 14 years old. Good luck, Johnny.

AFC Championship Game prediction

With two great defenses that shut down the run, I see this eventually turning into Jake vs. Ben. Jake's career postseason stats feature 8 INTs and 6 TDs. (When I adjust these numbers for schedule and weather effects, I get 8 INTs, 0 TDs). I don't expect Jake to reverse that trend tomorrow. Instead, I see a late fourth quarter play where an unblocked Peezy plucks Plummer's beard, Polamalu picks a forced throw, turns upfield, plants a foot in Plummer's chest while breaking a tackle that Ben could've made, and takes it to the house, cementing the victory. Steelers 27, Broncos 13.

Chanting Parrot

It knows what's up.

Best Roethlisburger

Thanks to KM for sending this:

Scramble eggs with sausage and onions and steak-ums. Add American cheese and ketchup and put in a bun.

Anything with Steak-ums sounds good to me. Actually we could call this a Roethlischeesesteak, but we won't be doing that.

Black and Gold and Roethlisburgers

Raise your hand if you wore black and gold to work today. Also, post in comments or send me your recipes for "Roethlis-burgers." I am hungry.

Pete Morelli

SI's Pete McEntegart has fun with the poor sap who tried to fix the game for Indy:

A rock was tossed through the living-room window of NFL referee Pete Morelli's home on Sunday, just hours after he incorrectly overruled an interception by Steelers safety Troy Polamalu. Strangely, Morelli still insists that it's inconclusive whether the projectile broke the pane.

Link here.

Speaking of SI, my copy this week stars Ben in a blue border; the website has the same cover with Matt Hasselbeck. Are they often printing multiple covers these days? Or did they make this Ben cover just for me?

Crazy fans

Have fun.

And here's more. The more fans a team has, the more of this you get. Note too that all of these people look very happy. So what's not to like about it?

We may not win every AFC Championship game, but we sure go to a lot of them. And we enjoy that a lot, it appears.

So the dust has settled and the glow of Sunday's win has gone away. Reading all the papers, it looks like the rest of the world has grown more and more convinced Denver will cruise in this one. And the Broncos are now favored to win the Super Bowl.

Fine with me. Three more days ...

Magic beards

Joe Bendel reports.

Yeah. I hate shaving too.

No. 1 in NFL clothing sales

So much for being in a small market. That and other misc. stuff in Ed Bouchette's notebook.

Give the Pirates a year or two, and they too will lead the league in clothing sales.

Penguins for sale

Story here from the PG. Someone call Mark Cuban.

Pirates sign some guys

I'm paying attention, just have nothing to say. Guys will make what their service time warrants.

Capping the Steelers-Broncos game, pt 2

Last week I noted that teams do better in their second straight road game than they do in a road game off a home game. The Steelers are now playing their third straight road game. That happens so rarely, I don't know what to make of it. Everyone assumes it's a bad thing--could be. Playing in a second straight one looks like a plus to me. Maybe the third is too much.

What I do know for sure, though, is that a home team playing its second straight home game does better than a home team fresh off a road game. I won't bore you with the percentages.

That's the Broncos. So they not only have the home-field advantage, they also have the benefit of the extra week to settle in and improve fortifications.

There's one other angle in play here that I want to mention. The Steelers are a road dog going for a second straight road upset. That rarely happens. The home team wins in about 80% of games with that profile. Teams rarely go on the road and score a second-straight upset victory. A lot of suckers get encouraged by the first upset and think the second is probable. It's not.

The Steelers have something like a one in four chance of winning this, if I look only at the generic profile of the matchup as determined by the two teams' recent history. The Colts game looked much closer to 50-50; the Steelers looked like unusually good road dogs based on the recent play of the two teams. This situation is the opposite. The Steelers have an uphill fight here. Er, upmountain fight.

So I would look for hope in potential mismatches. Are the Broncos missing key players? Are they particularly weak against one of our strengths? That's where I will focus the rest of the week.

Like a lot of Steeler fans, I have the sense that this is a special group of players. And that they are only getting better game to game. Is that enough? We will see.

Heart attack

Literally, this Steeler fan had a heart attack when Bettis fumbled.

You have to love the Steeler fans. They are not the quintessential fan base. Every region has its own way of following their team, and what passes for faith, say, in California or Boston may bear little resemblence to how we do things in Steeler nation. Not everyone around the country or around the world can understand all the crazy things we do and say about our teams.

But there can be no doubt that very few professional sports teams command the respect and attention of their fans the way the Steelers do. Go read O'Neill's explanation of what stopped his heart.

Get well, Terry O'Neill. Maybe some of the players can pay him a visit after practice.

Capping the Steelers-Broncos game, pt 1

The 2005 Broncos played excellent football at home. It's proverbial, I think, not to bet against the Broncos (or the Chiefs) at home. And a little peek at their 2005 home record shows they've more than supported that folk wisdom.

They got the thin air. They got the huge crowds. They got the winning tradition. They got the plush amenities that enfeeble the legs of visiting teams. (Iowa, don't paint the visiting locker room pink: make it plush. Let the enemy overindulge his appetite for comfort before the game. Fire up the mammoth Trojan-Horse-brand hot tub. Stock and unlock the minibars. Spice up the cable television offerings. Even the most grizzled enemy will be a little weak in the legs come game time. And worse for them, they'll be secretly grateful - and soft - for the hospitality.)

The Broncos wined, dined, and laid waste to San Diego, Kansas City, Washington, New England, Philadelphia, the Jets, the Ravens, and the Raiders. This was a much tougher schedule than the one enjoyed by Peyton Manning's team. Note too that the Eagles had not yet self-destructed when they flew to Denver for week 8.

The Broncos won eight and covered six of those home games. They won five and covered four of the first five--and all five of those were like "games of the week." They earned a reputation for squandering big leads, but they finished the home games. So unlike the 2005 Colts, these Broncos have much recent experience playing the Big Game at home. And they did not let down in the others, either, covering two of the three games in which they were favored by two touchdowns. They are as good as it gets at home. Mike Tyson, not Bald Bull.

The Broncos should get four points for home field, not the usual three. And looking at measures like these, the Broncos should lay another point more.

So I think this should be Pittsburgh +5, not Pittsburgh +3. So I would lean Denver ATS for the value. And based on this alone, Denver must have - on paper - something like a 70% chance to win. That is not a prediction at this point. I have other ways of massaging the data. There are more bones to read.

Objectively, the odds are looking to me as about as long as they were against the Colts. Just as many people underestimated the Steelers' chances at Indy, so do many people overestimate their chances at Denver. This is not a 50-50 or 45-55 situation.

Subjectively, I still think the Steelers have yet to put all the parts together and play the game that wants to come out of them. But it's not impressive or noteworthy to say that a lifelong Steeler fan can imagine victory.

So no prediction, but so far the odds look grim and grimmer the more I look.

One last thing: a sidebar on the total. There's no clear pattern on the Denver totals. They went under mostly. Since the Steelers have often gone under on the road (see previous capping posts), I'm leaning toward the under here. But since the total is 41, I doubt there's much value in it as a wager. 20-10 is more likely than 30-20, but even 24-21 would go over. Odds are we'll see a low to average-scoring game.

This means we will see good defense from both teams. There will be plenty of punts. Field position will be as important as it ever is. The defense can regard a red-zone field goal as a small but real victory. Turnovers will cause as much irreparable harm as they ever do. Little mistakes will be magnified. Small leads will be difficult to overcome. Etc. etc. The usual stuff.

Still brain dead

I can't think much. I am making an effort.

The Broncos will be a tougher opponent than the Colts were. I know that for sure. Or, I think I know that. Do I know that? Now I am drawing a blank on the Broncos. Now I keep seeing former Browns on the d-line. Now I recollect that they cheat better than the Colts.

The oddsmakers are no help. They play Solomon on this one, saying "Cut the baby right down the middle": I see visitor +3 and a 41 total, which is like saying "50 heads" in a 100-coin-flip contest. +3 and 41 translates into a 22-19 final score, which is as average as they get.

I have no feel for the next game now. I began to worry, Sunday, that the unfolding victory over the Colts might be a Pyrrhic one. Today I doubt we need to worry about the Steelers being emotionally empty or too physically beat up. Still, the Broncos had a much easier win. Their game was more about the Patriots self-destructing than it was about the Broncos forcing that self-destruction. Denver fans will disagree with me I'm sure.

Bones and I talked last week about who we'd rather play in the AFC Championship, the Patriots or the Broncos, and we agreed we'd rather head to Foxboro to avenge some more.

I also see some things about this game which bode ill for the Steelers. I have to get out the data and confirm these things. You guys have any thoughts on how to handicap this game? No one will be saying the Steelers have no chance to win straight up. But is that chance 50%? or 46%? The Steeler fan in me says yes, the handicapper in me leans no.

More later when my brain comes back on.

Something about a leg in the air

Michael Rosenberg, Detroit Free Press:

Now the top-seeded Colts are out of the NFL playoffs, unless the league decides the clock malfunctioned and the Colts get another few minutes to try to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers - which, the way things unfolded Sunday, is possible.

...

First, they won it when Troy Polamalu intercepted a Peyton Manning pass with 5 minutes, 26 seconds left, giving Pittsburgh the ball with a 21-10 lead.

But wait. After further review (and, I would guess, some sort of pharmaceutical overdose) referee Pete Morelli said the pass was incomplete.

Joe Posnanski, Kansas City Star:

Referee Pete Morelli, in a move that seemed to surprise even the hometown Colts fans, overturned the interception. His explanation was as baffling as the overturn - something about a leg being up in the air - and Manning quickly drove the Colts to the Pittsburgh 3.

Michael Lev, Orange County Reporter:

Polamalu dove in front of Manning's pass for tight end Bryan Fletcher, caught the ball, then dropped it while getting up and attempting to run. The officials ruled it an interception, which would have given the Steelers the ball with 5:26 left and a 21-10 lead. But Colts coach Tony Dungy challenged the play, and referee Pete Morelli overturned it. Indianapolis drove for a touchdown and made a two-point conversion to trim the deficit to three.

Morelli explained that Polamalu lost the ball with one of his legs "still on the ground. Therefore he did not complete the catch."

Judy Battista, New York Times:

On the Colts' next possession, they got what might have been a game-turning call by officials. It appeared that Polamalu had intercepted a Manning pass at midfield and had then fumbled the ball as he began to run with it.

But officials overturned the call, ruling that the pass was incomplete, even though it appeared Polamalu had taken several steps while in possession.

FWIW. What a crazy game.

Also, Roethlisberger is completely right here:

I think the smart play was to give Jerome the ball and I guarantee if we got the chance 100 times, we’d do it every time.

There's no second-guessing that handoff to Jerome.

Playoff: Steelers at Colts

Game on. Here is a thread for your predictions, comments, and postmortem analysis.

... Tunch and Wolfley note the microphone stands, there every twenty feet in the MNF game, are not on the field. And, coincidentally, the noise level before the game is noticeably lower. Maybe the Indy fans have yet to crank it up. We'll see if noise is the same factor it was previously.

... All hail Heath Miller.

... All hail Randle El! Rout is on.

... These play fakes will win Ben an Oscar. Touchdown!

... 2nd Q ... Three and out for the Colts. Manning not playing well. If he would get off his ass, maybe he could figure something out against this D. Time for more points ... seems like we have not scored in an eternity.

... Verron Haynes carries some Blue for a big third-down conversion. Steelers are smart to get everyone involved.

... Now a great special teams play. Make Manning drive the length of the field.

... This long drive - I'm looking for it - but I don't see it in the Rout Plan. Two-minute warning.

... Oh, here it is. Last page, under Red-Zone Defense: hold Colts to humiliation of chip shot field goal. 14-3 Steelers. Now let's get some points before the end of the half.

... Halftime. Oh, baby. The Colts will have the ball at the start of the second half.

... Nice stop to open the 2nd half. Script says boot, throat time.

... So that was more like a slow squeeze. Six minutes left in the 3Q. I wonder if Jerome is fueled up and ready to let the air out of this game on the Steelers' next possession. In the meantime, let's see if our DBs can't hang onto one of these passes for the pick.

... Wow nice near-safety there. Rowdy Jr. runs some victory laps. Slow down, little man. He doesn't know what's going on; he's sixteen months old. Steelers to take over at the Indy 30. I'd run it non-stop and kick the field goal.

... We're jamming to Bo Diddley's "Bring It To Jerome" for this first and goal commercial break.

... Ingenious fumble-fake! Raise their hopes and dash them. Time to Bring It On Home.

... We so nearly named our boy Jerome. If Rowdy was not such the great name ... maybe the next son can be Jerome. Steelers 21-3. Rout is on again.

... OK, what do we have, sixteen minutes to kill? Time for Steeler football at its best.

... Manning doubles down recklessly; they convert 4th and 2. Nice play. They will need more of that.

... 4th quarter. Oh shit. The 50-yard touchdown. 21-10.

... 4th and inches. Colts self-destruct with that jumping and pointing. No penalty? Bad enough when you have to play Manning, now we have to play the refs too? No matter, I hope.

... So he has it? WTF? The look on Manning's face.

... More 4th and inches. Bussie has it. No. They will measure. Bussie has it. All hail! Steelers are eating the clock, and, we hope, will punch this in five minutes from now.

... Tunch with the nice Wizard of Oz analogy. The witch has tipped the hourglass, the monkeys are flying, and the Colts can only panic.

... So they punt. Colts will have the ball, 11 points down, six minutes plus, at the 20. Steelers need a stop. The Colts can score in a hurry; the Steelers know this I'm sure.

... INTERCEPTION! FUMBLE! Recovered! Red flag coming out? Polamalu WTF? This could be the killer.

... The challenge goes ... just got another Summit Great Northern Porter ... it goes ... booth review must be holding out for larger bribes ... damn ... they give the ball back to the Colts. I was joking about those bribes until they actually overruled that INT call on the field. WTF?

... Touchdown, then they get two points. Now it's a three-point lead. Four plus minutes. It's on the offense. Damn these nailbiters.

... ALL HAIL JOEY PORTER! Oh the sack.

... Bettis fumbles! They recover and run that shit to midfield. Holy shit. The Colts are still alive. Holy Miracle at the Meadowlands.

... The FG ... I T ' S N O G O O D! I T ' S N O G O O D!

... Final score, Steelers more, Colts less. Game over. Hug your momma, hug your papa, kiss your wife, pat the little children on the head. And everyone run some victory laps.

... Well, that went just about exactly as I called it.

... P.S. We'll still name the next boy Jerome.

History of the No-Huddle Offense

Ed Bouchette has it.