Monday, February 13, 2006

Lineup predictions

The PG ran this thinger on Sunday.

One of my pet peeves, no offense Ron Cook, is the whole "significant improvement, but not enough for a .500 season" hedge that we'll get everywhere from folks who want to be optimistic but are deathly afraid that others will regard them as pollyanna.

A .500 season is not that difficult to manage. It's what we ought to expect from most every team. It's winning half your games. As a fan, I'm more than a little annoyed by all the talk about .500 as though (a) it would represent some significant improvement, and (b) it would difficult to accomplish.

The Pirates' run of sub-.500 seasons has been assisted by a run of mid-season roster rebuildings. What made last year's team a 67-win team was not some inherent lack of quality among the players who started the season. What made them a 67-win team was the tearing down of the lineup, through injury and trade. Had they kept those same players they started the year with, and played with them through thick and thin and not lost some to injury, they may well have been a 75-win team.

No one can predict injury, so all we can do is evaluate the roster as it's constructed today. When I say I think this is a .500 looking team, an average roster, that's not meant as a great compliment or a great cause for optimism.

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