Saturday, February 04, 2006

Super Bowl Prediction: Rowdy

I expect no surprises from the Steeler offense: they will take what the Seahawks offer and score early. So far in the playoffs, the opponent has played like they were intimidated by the Steeler running game and underwhelmed by the passing game. The thinking appeared to be that the Steelers were one-dimensional, and if they could stop the run, Ben would force some throws - he has been playing more like a gunslinger - and turn the ball over.

It won't matter much what Seattle does. They won't come out with a run defense on every down, but it won't matter. The Steelers should be too much for them either way. Unless the wideouts drop an unusual number of passes, I see the Steelers getting an early lead and going into the half with the score 10-3 or 13-7 or 14-7.

If the Steelers can extend the lead to double digits, they will switch gears and go into pound, maybe punt, and always-bleed-the-clock mode. In other words, a Steeler victory tomorrow will look a lot like every other Steeler victory. Don't be surprised if the Seahawks drive the ball on the Steeler defense, especially if the secondary reverts to mid-season form and drops the easy INTs. Yardage is one thing, points are another. In fact, if the Steelers have a good lead, I am fine with seeing long, time-consuming drives, especially if they result only in three points for the blue team.

Shaun Alexander carried my FFL team to a championship this year, so I know what he's been all about. He has benefitted from the soft schedule, and the Seahawks have overindulged his taste for being a one-man offense. This kind of superstar-driven attack can be thwarted. A top-quality defense can take away the top threat of a top-quality offense. The Steeler defense is especially well prepared to contain Alexander. Once this happens, the Seahawks will be forced to throw the ball. And they could be effective; who knows; I don't; the Patriots, for example, were always able to throw the ball by spreading it around against the Steelers' defense. The wideouts would be better prepared to take over the game, however, if they had any experience doing so in the regular season. Seattle's offense has a chance, but it's not a good one.

The zebras will not flag much of anything in the game. This can only help Pittsburgh, since they've been -- I don't know, perhaps it is the style of play -- more hurt by big penalties recently. The officials never get much into meddling in the Super Bowl. It is a good time for illegal moves; the more aggressive team at the start will have an edge for it. I don't expect we'll see much in the way of questionable pass interference or holding calls. If we do, we know that someone has bought a little fixin'.

They lose if they do not score on their long drives -- Steeler football makes short games, games in which both sides do not get the ball all that often. They have to get points when they've had the ball for half a quarter. The Steelers also lose by letting the Seahawks jump out to an early lead. Well, they don't lose necessarily, but that's the last thing you want to see as a Steelers fan. The Steelers are not built for comebacks. They want to knock the Seahawk to the ground ten minutes into the game, and then get Casey Hampton to sit on him the rest of the way.

Also keep an eye on the special teams play. When they have been vulnerable the last few years, the special teams have given up big return yardage and turned over the momentum late in close games. I'll have my eye on the likes of Sean Morey. Special teams better bring an A game tomorrow.

My final score prediction: Steelers 27, Seahawks 17. What's yours?

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