Who's unprotected

If you are wondering who could get taken from the Bucs in this year's Rule 5 draft, Robert Dvorchak has your answers.

Burnitz and Gibbons rumors

Ed Eagle reports that Littlefield may make a trade this weekend. Jay Gibbons and Jeromy Burnitz are mentioned as possible additions.

Here's my first impressions. Both these guys could be expected to hit more than Charles Johnson would. Bones has been a fan of Burnitz in the past; I'd like to see what he has to say about him now. Gibbons reminds me of a left-handed Craig Wilson. And that's a good thing.

Matt Lawton fan club forming here

I am a big fan of Matt Lawton, who I regard as the poor man's J.D. Drew - well, something like that - and I think he'd make a great addition to the current crop of Pirates. He's a tremendous leadoff hitter with all the patience of Kendall and more power. My memory (never to be trusted) says that some of the injuries that have made his career "injury-prone" were freak things and not the kind of injuries that actually suggest you can expect more injuries down the road. Not, that is, unless you believe in bad luck and think perhaps someone can be born under a bad sign.

He's gotten little love in Cleveland because he failed to meet expectations in his first season. If his health is sound and he can pass a Pirate physical, he's someone we could really use.

To complainers I'd say, put his .370 career OBP in your pipe, smoke it, and then tell us if you still feel like complaining.

OK, I wouldn't say that, because it would be ruude, but what's not to like?

Gammons: Fogg non-tendered?

The other PG is reporting that clubs think the Bucs might non-tender Josh Fogg. I'd be shocked if that happened. Perhaps they anticipate a huge payday in arbitration? I sure do wish I understood better how the arbiters arbitrate.

RockyMountainNews: details of Johnson deal

Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News reports (scroll down) that the Rockies and Pirates have some kind of tentative deal in place if the Rockies can't work something out with the Tampa Bay club. Ringolsby writes that the Rockies have agreed to pay $8.25M of Johnson's $10M salary ($9M + $1M bonus for waiving his no-trade clause). Johnson is also demanding a contract for 2006 worth about $1.25M. I don't report this as fact but as a summary of this Denver report. For all I know, it's wishful thinking on the part of this beat writer.

There's no word about who's the prospect the Pirates would send to Denver, if there is one. I hope it's not Zach Duke.

Steelerettes

These fine ladies were before my time. I had no idea the Steelers had ever had cheerleaders.

Check them out. They are too cute in those hats.

Here's a good wallpaper-worthy action shot.

There's a lot more here. Mon dieu.

Here Comes Roethlisberger

Bwa-ha-ha. In a related note, Mrs. Rowdy decided the best thing in the whole Steelers catalog is the black-and-gold Santa. Not this one, which is also cool. This one. Or I think that's the one. Rowdietta destroyed the catalog. This is also a good look for Santa. This one appears to be wearing the alternate home uniform. The Steelers don't go for alternate uniform looks so that one looks a little bogus to me.

Eagle answers

Ed Eagle answers a bunch of questions I could have written myself. Shorter Eagle: No Charles Johnson if he's $2M per year, Craig Wilson is not a catcher, Littlefield promised to re-invest the Kendall savings and there's no reason to doubt his word, JVB will have a shot at the fifth starter position.

One of my hobby horses has been the fact that the five-man rotation is a myth. A team doesn't need five starters on April first, they need more like nine starters. Otherwise there's no hope of successfully weathering injury and unexpected suckitude. The only way that the addition of Redman limits JVB's opportunity is this: if everyone else is healthy and up to speed, the odds are longer for JVB to start the season with the Pirates. Otherwise I'm sure we'll be seeing him at some point in the season.

Eagle's mailbag also calls our attention to this recent interview with DL. There's a lot of good stuff in there. Sounds to me like Littlefield is ready to do some more trading. I'm all for unloading some of the minor-league depth for the right big-league proven veterans.

Steelers at Jaguars

I'm looking forward to it.

...funny how the team of old Steelers played and lost like the old Steelers. The Jaguars "deserved" to win but handed it over in the final minutes. Not a great win for the Steelers, but that's a crushing loss for the Jacksonville team.

And we keep pace with the Patriots. If it's standard tournament seeding come playoff-bracket-makeup time, and if the Steelers retain the #1 seed they'd play the #4 - if that team can fend off a Wild Card team - to get to the Championship game. That may be the Jets, right? I'd have the Colts playing in Foxboro for the right to come to Heinz Field. But we get ahead of ourselves ... Steelers aren't going to win out if they continue to play like they did last night. Unlike the Colts and Patriots, they don't appear to be at the top of their game right now.

21 days of Clemente

If you're in New York City, you might want to check out this art exhibit:

"21 Days of Clemente" showcases the legacy of Baseball Hall of Famer Roberto Clemente in an exhibit Dec. 10-31 at 424 Grand Concourse, Bronx. Public schools in the Bronx will participate with art, poetry and essays about the late Pittsburgh Pirate all-star outfielder Clemente (1934-1972), who died in a plane crash during a humanitarian mission to earthquake-stricken Nicaragua. This exhibit will reflect the work, mission and generosity of Clemente. Students will receive certificates, and the top 20 winners will receive special prizes. Music by Yerba Buena. Call 718-402-9310.

That's what I would call a legacy.

Big Ben action figure available

Stocking stuffer. Ryan's on it.

Congratulations Dejan

The P-G has promoted/reassigned Dejan Kovacevic from the Penguins to the Pirates so he's our newest beat writer. Link here. Thanks to Paul for the link.

Sarah's Take

MLB.com has re-published the thoughts of a fan named Sarah. It's the Kendall reference that caught my eye. She thinks Kendall caused a lot of resentment among the Pirates because he made a lot of money. So, the Dodgers shouldn't pay a lot of money to Adrian Beltre.

I'd be curious to learn how she observed this. While I generally believe that stars & scrubs is not the best way to assemble a low-budget baseball team, I don't understand how a fan can say she saw resentment among Kendall's 2004 teammates. And, for the record, I don't think Kendall's salary last year was as much as an albatross as it would have been in the final year of his contract. There's no evidence that the Pirates' sub-.500 season had anything to do with the portion of total payroll consumed by Kendall's salary. There appears to be a reading of Littlefield's Alex Rodriguez comments which infers that the GM and maybe some fans blame Kendall's salary for the Pirates' inability to win a lot of games the last few years. While I don't know what the GM meant by those comments, I doubt that's what he meant to suggest. The problem with Kendall's salary is that it grows year after year. And as it grows, it would continue to restrict the team's ability to pay his teammates more than a scrub's salary if, as I think we all anticipate, the current ownership does not significantly grow the team's annual payroll.

I think the trade looks OK for the Bucs because it frees money that can be used for the eventually arbitration-eligible guys we want to keep. Redman looks like a good replacement for Sean Burnett and, as unfashionable as it may be, I still think Rhodes is a bad-ass with at least one more dominant set-up season in his tank. All that said, we have to wait a few years before we can judge the trade with any justified conclusions. I've read a lot of commentary on the Kendall trade that reminds me of the cocksure snap judgments that were issued after the Pirates sent Giles to San Diego.

One more thing. Scroll to the bottom of Sarah's piece and click on her link. Is this something that would be called a blog?

Mother of All Depth Charts

Check it out.

Looks dubious to me. No way Albaladejo fits in the 2005 Lynchburg rotation.

Ah, just kidding. All hail Wilbur Miller.

Bucs in Winter Ball

Ed Eagle catches us up on Vogelsong, Castillo, Bautista, Ronny Paulino, and Leo Nunez.

How many years before we get these winter ball games on streaming audio? I'd kinda like to listen to one of Vogelsong's starts.

No great demand for Nunez, Alvarez, or Rivera

All three cleared waivers and become free agents. Thanks to Tom Veil for calling our attention to it.

On even more Steroids

Thanks to everyone for the thoughtful and wise and eloquent comments in the last thread.

Ban 'em I say. If that's what people want, give it to them.

If steroids are to be banned because they are hazardous to the athlete's health, OK.

If steroids are to be banned because young people might get the (possibly mistaken) idea that they improve a player's ability to compete, OK.

By the same logic, though, we'd also have to ban nicotine and caffeine. Should we put an asterisk next to Jim Leyland's managerial record because he won all those games on the performance-enhancing quality of cigarettes? Don't say there's a difference. Any serious cigarette smoker will tell you he or she just can't concentrate when they really need to smoke. Children already get the message that cigarettes will make you cool and sexy and athletic from the tobacco companies. And they've been getting that message for more than 100 years. Why shouldn't baseball recognize that cigarettes are harmful to their players and that cigarette (or chew) usage encourages children to pursue false "enhancement"? Ban 'em.

Should we invalidate all trades that are made after the GMs have stayed up all night drinking coffee? After all, there's no doubt that the performance-enhancing effects of caffeine played a role. Did Billy Beane or David Littlefield have an unfair advantage in the negotiations for Jason Kendall because the one had better or more high-potency coffee? Unless we ban coffee from the clubhouse, players will continue to sacrifice good sleep and better nutrition in the name of some false performance advantage. And young children will grow up thinking they have to consume eighteen lattes a week if they want to be General Manager.

Protect the kids, yes. Amen to that. The best way to protect the kids is to talk sense to them. They won't get the idea that juicing up will necessarily improve their ability to hit a baseball if their parents talk responsibly about the role steroids and muscle mass play in the ballplayer's ability. The way the current Hate-Barry debate is going, kids are getting the message that steroids, legal and illegal, made him a big home run hitter. They are getting the message that they need to juice up if they want to compete. That's the real shame.

Baseball isn't weightlifting or boxing or sprinting. This is a much more complicated sport. Baseball requires a far greater range of abilities than any of the more limited skill-set Olympic sports. To state categorically that legal and illegal steroids are "performance-enhancing" oversimplifies the game far too much for me. Caffeine is performance-enhancing. So is nicotine. So is Viagra. So is Prozac. So is spinach (well, maybe only for some people). LSD was performance-enhancing for Dock Ellis, to hear him talk about his experience that day. I'll agree that maybe sign-stealing is "part of the game," but putting Vaseline on the ball, or using sandpaper: that is cheating. If cheating is what this is all about, let's drag old Gaylord Perry from the Hall of Fame and give him the witch treatment too.

In the course of a year-round fitness regimen involving all the best medical and motivational advice that money can buy, an athlete uses a cream or a pill that increases the efficiency of his workouts by some unknown and unproven increment. He goes to the ballpark. Maybe he is still capable of hitting a baseball - Marty Cordova became so muscle-bound, he lost the flexibility to swing the bat as he once did. And maybe he is not facing a pitcher who, because of his own illegal perfromance-enhancing hobbies, throws just like pitchers used to throw in the old days. If he can still hit and the pitcher is not equally juiced, maybe the batter hits the ball another five or ten feet if he makes contact.

And this is more serious that applying a foreign substance to a ball that makes it dance and move in some unnatural fashion? I can't believe that.

Because I'm not all that alarmed about the way Perry cheated, I can't get upset and believe that Bonds would have hit 37 home runs instead of 73 home runs had he only worked out like mad and not used "the clear" or whatever it was he used.

The role of steroids in baseball performance is not simple. Bud Selig will serve up a simplistic solution because that's what the fans appear to want right now. No politician will ever be caught doing anything less than being "tough on drugs."

I'm sure there will be a witch hunt, the implementation of some draconian drug-testing bureaucracy, and a further increase in ticket prices to pay for Bud's crusade to look good while making the sport safe from this boogeyman.

Because I believe that sports operates as an outlet or an escape for most people, when they get really upset about something in sports, I usually suspect they are displacing some concern or anger about something else. Maybe they are pissed that their boss raided their pensions or that their son didn't get into an exclusive college. Maybe they have gotten older and can't hit a baseball out of the infield anymore. Maybe a hurricane destroyed their orange grove. Maybe they stepped in a puddle and are at work, right now, with wet socks. Maybe they can't or won't recognize or express that anger. Maybe they need a safer target. Some people kick the dog. Some take it out on their kids. Others appear to have found release in hating on the High-Tech High-Paid Disrespectful Home-Run Hitter.

I see all this as a Bad Sign. Something must be very wrong to have people so fired up about some crisis of intergrity in professional sports. The whole Ron Artest thing was just another scene in this unfolding drama. Something is Wrong with the world.

At least we aren't worried about some perceived epidemic of cheating at the circus. When I turned on the radio this morning, I did not hear someone saying, "I don't know what to tell my children now that we know the Alligator Lady is a fraud." For that I'm grateful.

P.S. If we're going to hate on Barry, and as a Pirate fan a part of me wants to do that for the 1990-1992 NLCS performance - let's pick on him for not having won a World Series. Aaron has a ring, Ruth had a bunch of them, even Mark McGwire has a ring. I'd so rather see all this anger channelled into some discussion of the efficacy of the stars & scrubs strategy. Here's the greatest player of all time, or one of the greatest players of all time, and he's unable to lead a team to the ultimate goal.

This is the last I'll write about this for a while because I find the whole subject depressing. Thanks for all your great comments, and thanks in advance for any comments you might want to leave here.

On Steroids

A conscience is the part of you that tells you, immediately and without reflection, if a certain act is lawful or unlawful. It's pretty clear that most everyone knows, in their gut, that it's not right for a ballplayer to use steroids.

I feel that way. But I do think there's a lot of overreaction to the Jason Giambi news. Steroids is cheating but baseball has always been full of cheating. Corked bats. Stolen signs. Overwatered infields. Foreign substances on the ball.

There's no conclusive proof that steroids do anything but help the body heal faster and help the body add muscle mass faster. There's no proof that they do anything to help a hitter hit a ball, and there's no proof that they help a pitcher to hit his spots. There's no proof that they do anything to turn a mediocre player into a superstar. Jason Giambi took them, if reports are to be believed, and so too did Jeremy Giambi.

People are overreacting to the steroids question. People have said that the 1951 Giants stole the pennant and there's been no movement to put an asterisk on their accomplishment. Guys are in the Hall of Fame for careers built on doctoring the baseball. Where is the outrage? There is none. There has always been a lot of winking when it comes to the usual forms of cheating in baseball.

We've always known that athletes have used and abused "recreational" drugs. Dock Ellis threw a no-hitter on LSD. We all know Ricky Williams has been running all stoned but there's no movement to put an asterisk on his accomplishments, either. And we know many athletes played high on cocaine or half-drunk. Amphetamines are reported to be totally common in sports, too. Would anyone have a problem with a ballplayer who's taking Prozac?

So why all the hullabaloo about steroids? What is it about this drug that has so many people convinced that it's the rock-solid iron-clad most-foolproof sure-thing way of cheating?

My response to news that players have been "juiced" is one of pity - it's the same reaction I have to news that players abused and suffered from their use of LSD, cocaine, amphetamines, alcohol, and marijuana. And I can't believe that steroids use is a threat to the "integrity of the game." Why do some people worry more about the integrity of a game than they worry, say, about the integrity of a business, of a political policy, of a college degree, or of a religious vow? The "integrity" of baseball was sacrificed long ago and since it's sport, it's no worse for wear for this habitual wanting of virtue and consistency.

On the scale of cheats, I'd rank steroid use below putting vaseline on the ball. I'd rank steroid use below sign-stealing schemes which involve more than one person. (If one person cheating in secret is bad, worse is two or more players helping each other to cheat.) My guess is that steroids have had no more impact on the outcome of games than alcohol, which is to say that it's probably had some influence but no more influence than dozens or even hundreds of other factors which have come and gone over the last hundred-and-fifty years.

If steroids helped players get stronger, it's not very clear that they helped the hitters more than it helped the pitchers. If they helped players heal faster and get back on the field, then I don't see why we should complain about them.

Compounding the dubious "criminality" of steroid use is the fact that they were legal until last year. And now that Bud Selig has banned some of them, I can still walk into any mall and go home with a big jug of Creatine. Are the illegal versions of steroids that much more effective than the legal ones?

Something tells me this is all about the home run record. I think that's sad. People can't help themselves from barrelling down this train of thought: Steroids -> Muscle -> Home Runs. Never mind the fact that this is only one of the many logical consequences of steroid use. How about Steroids -> Muscle -> Career-ending ligament damage? Or Steroids -> Muscle -> A home-run-preventing extra 5 mph on the fastball?

The more important question is this: who gives a damn about the home run record? I'd trade one playoff win for a home run record. If the home run record really is the most important thing to baseball fans, then the sport is in worse shape than I thought.

The fact that this might go down as the steroids era is sad, but no more sad that the fact that other eras might be remembered as the alcohol era, the cocaine era, the amphetamine era, the sign-stealing era, the spitball era, the vaseline era, the pine tar era, the body armor era, or the what have you era.

The game is just as strong as it has ever been. And it has just as much integrity as it has ever had.

Play ball.

Honest Wagner NFL pick 'em: week 13

VIS SPRD HME SCOOP BONES ROWDY
snf 10.5 STL ..STL ..snf ..STL
buf -3.5 MIA ..MIA .buf* ..buf
car 01.5 NWO .car* ..NWO ..NWO
hou 06.5 NYJ ..hou ..NYJ .NYJ*
atl 01.5 TAB ..atl .atl* ..TAB
cin 06.5 BAL ..cin ..cin .BAL*
min -7.5 CHI ..CHI ..CHI ..min
nwe -7.5 CLE .nwe* .nwe* ..nwe
arz 05.5 DET ..DET .arz* .DET*
ten 10.5 IND ..IND ..ten ..ten
ksc 01.5 OAK .OAK* ..OAK ..ksc
den 02.5 SND .SND* ..SND ..den
nyg 01.5 WAS ..WAS ..nyg ..nyg
gnb 05.5 PHL ..gnb ..gnb .gnb*
pit -3.5 JAX ..pit .pit* .pit*
dal 06.5 SEA ..SEA ..dal .SEA*
Asterisks indicate best bets.

Season to date:
Bones 98-78 .557
Scoop 96-80 .545
Rowdy 91-85 .517

Best bets
Bones 33-22 .600
Rowdy 35-26 .574
Scoop 21-16 .568

89 days until Spring Training opens

Schedule here.

Charles Johnson no D-Ray

The Denver Post reports that Johnson has some kind of $1M bonus that the D' Rays won't pay. Sounds like his real salary for 2005 is $10M, not $9M, so even if the Rockies absorb $8M it's still going to work out to about $2M per year plus some kind of prospect. Is that such a great deal for whoever takes Johnson off their hands?

The Black and Gold in Baghdad

All hail the troops.

File this one under what it means to be a fan. I like to write on this subject; I'm sure I'll come back to this essay by this apparently-anonymous sports guy. It's a great essay. Go read it.

Japan Times: Bucs interested in Nishi

The Japan Times, today:

Free agent and utility infielder Toshihisa Nishi, who has apparently drawn interest from the Pittsburgh Pirates, put on hold a two-year contract offered by the [Yomiuri] Giants in their talks Tuesday.

The 33-year-old Nishi told the Tokyo-based Central League team that it is difficult for him to respond immediately whether he will return for a 10th season as he hopes to find himself among the players on the checklist of teams at the Dec. 10-13 Major League Baseball winter meetings.

Sounds like the Pirates are getting creative in their search for appropriate free-agent signings. But how do we need another utility infielder? Is he left-handed? What's the angle here?

All hail the Curve

Our elite minor-league franchise.

Guess Craig Wilson's 2005 salary

Ed Eagle's new mailbag reminds me of a fun debate: what will Craig Wilson earn for 2005? Through arbitration or a pre-arbitration deal, at the All-Star Break I thought he'd be looking at David Ortiz money. But then he tailed off. The arbitration process is a little wacky and unpredictable. What do you think he'll make for next year? Surely more than $1.15M.

Honest Wagner NFL pick 'em: week 12 results

Best bets went Scoop 3-1, Bones 3-2, Rowdy 2-1. We got murdered in the guess 'em games. Overall numbers were Scoop 8-8, Bones 7-9, Rowdy 7-9. I stared at the three heavy home favorites (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Denver) and debated taking all three dogs or all three faves. Overreacting to the predictability of Week 11, I once again indulged one of my pet theories about the NFL - i.e. that Parity is Dead - and went with the faves.

In other news, in our Brown family pick 'em pool, of which Bones and Rowdy are but two members, our charming and accomplished 21-year-old sister is beating the snot out of us with a gaudy .565 winning percentage. She's not old enough to remember the Super Bowl teams.

Bubby Brister may be her earliest Steeler memory. Our sister, we'll call her Annie for now, must have been six years old. She found one of the Steelers helmets that Bones and I used to wear as teenagers when we played "Earl Campbell" in the neighbor's backyard. She put on yellow sweatpants, rubbed black stuff under her eyes, and put on her Bubby Brister jersey. It was Halloween. We took a picture and mailed it to Bubby care of Three Rivers stadium for his amusement.

He mailed it back, which we never expected, with a short message addressed to our sister. "Dear Annie," it said, "Lookin' good!!! Signed, Bubby Brister #6" or whatever his number was, I forget now.

For her sake more than any other reason, I'd love to see the Steelers go to the Super Bowl and win big. Super Bowl XXX was okay but not all that.

Charles Johnson "leaning Pirates"

Joey G sends this report from the Denver Post: Charles Johnson would rather waive his no-trade clause to play in Pittsburgh than in Tampa Bay. Or so they conjecture.

I don't put any stock in this. Everyone knows we all look our best in black and gold, and any ballplayer with half a heart wants to play in Pittsburgh. Of course Charles Johnson would like to be a Pirate.

Next rumor please.

On Park Effects

It's the offseason so now is as good a time as ever to do some thinking about the way baseball players are evaluated and ranked.

One premise that I'd like to throw out there is that team-building strategies that may be sound and even very good in fantasy baseball won't work in real baseball. One example of a fantasy baseball strategy that works in fantasy but doesn't in real life is the "stars and scrubs" strategy. This says put all your eggs in one or two baskets and surround the stars with replacement-level freely-available talent. For now, rather than debate the merits of this strategy, I'd like to just stop with the proposal that we call this team-building strategy "stars and scrubs" and that, in light of Littlefield's recent comments about the A-Rod in Texas model, we agree that it's one the Pirates have considered and rejected.

Fantasy baseball players want good, accurate projections. Non-fantasy fans would also like them too and since most of the first group overlaps with the second group, it's fair to say that the various projection systems available to fantasy gamers (Rotowire's, Primer's ZiPS, Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA, etc.) have a growing influence on the expectations of the fans who actually buy tickets and go to the park.

The better projection systems use "park effects" to translate statistics from one environment to another. The theory is that a park like Coors field inflates offensive statistics in regular and predicable ways. Therefore any given player's real performance data can be "translated" or adjusted by multiplying his raw numbers against "a park effect" number.

The park-effect translation math also plays a key role in the various "unistats," or single measures of a player's overall contribution or value, and these things, be they Win Shares or VORP measures, appear to be having a growing influence as fans debate the relative merits and overall value of individual players.

A problem I have with park effects, as they are currently used (or as they are currently described), is that they seem to me to be amazingly crude and uneven. Some stadiums have years and years of data supporting their park effect. Others are one or two years old. And yet both park effect numbers appear to be trusted equally.

A second way that the park effect measures strike me as really crude is in their apparent inability to discriminate between kinds of players. All Pirate fans know that PNC Park is tougher on right-handed hitters, for example, than it is on left-handed hitters. Yet most park effect measures that I've seen describe the park as something like perfectly neutral. Handedness is only the most obvious way that all hitters can be broken down into subgroups. It seems pretty obvious to me that PNC ought to have one park effect for right-handed hitters and another for left-handed hitters. And ditto for pitchers. How much of an advantage will a lefty like Mark Redman have from PNC Park? So long as the park is described only as neutral, we can't get a good idea of that.

Hitters can be further broken down as power hitters and singles hitters, and pitchers can be broken down as soft-tossers and as power pitchers. Each group should have its own park effect.

The only protest I can imagine against providing more specific park effect numbers - what we need, really, are park effect tables for each park - is that by dividing the data the quality of the sample size will be compromised. Yet park effects are immediately provided for new parks like Petco and, at the end of the year, the VORP calculations of players in that one-year park appear on the same lists as if they were equally valid as the VORP calculations of players who have played half their games in much better-known ballparks.

Finally, I know that many calculations of park effects are not stadium-specific but look instead at the whole schedule of games a team played. So much Coors and so much Dodger stadium goes into some of those Petco numbers. But doesn't that compound the problem even further? The overall park effect number made up by averaging the various effects of all the parks a team played in may work with the aggregate numbers. But aren't these aggregates too muddled for use on the individual level? I wonder. Also, there's a problem with using the previous year's data to project the upcoming year. Last year the Pirates played many of their interleague games on the West Coast. Will those stadiums go into the calculation for the park effect for 2005, when the Pirates won't play any interleague games out there? Shouldn't a 2005 projection with an aggregated park effect measure consider the handful of games they'll play, for example, in Fenway Park? Maybe some of the systems already do this. It's not my intention to specifically single out one projection system or one measure of park effects and call it wrong, but to raise questions we ought to ask about these numbers before we trust them very much.

My guess is that ten years from now, we'll look back at the state of the easily-available advanced metrics today and marvel at their crudity, much as we look as the baseball video games of the 1980s and wonder how we could have ever thought they were so cutting-edge.

More post-Kendall news

Ed Eagle's long report of the trade and the fallout contains more stuff that was news to me.

Eagle quotes Littlefield talking along the lines of the Captain A-Rod argument I've made in defense of a trade in the past:

Despite Kendall's production, his contract had become a burden to an organization looking to rebuild around a core of young and inexpensive players. Kendall still has three years and $34 million remaining on the six-year, $60 million contract he signed prior to the 2001 season. He was expected to take up about one-fourth of the Bucs' projected $40 million payroll in 2005.

"The formula of one player eating up a significant portion of the payroll doesn't work," said Littlefield. "You can look at other teams, you can look at other years and it's just not a formula that is going to enable you to have a lot of success."

A winning team is a fused group, a collection of individuals who are all empowered and capable of rising up and leading in the short-term. Aaron is the hero of game 1, but no matter that he strikes out five times in game 2; Bobby hits two home runs and the team wins again. Aaron and Bobby play terribly in game 3, but Clay strikes out ten and Daniel has a big eighth-inning triple. There can be no permanent leadership; no one person is capable of winning every game by himself. Trot out all the platitudes that have been offered about the 2002-2004 New England Patriots and see if they don't fit this description.

No team can be perfectly egalitarian, but too much pecking order hurts a team's ability to compete. There can be no division of caste in a winning team. The ramifications are many. For example, when one guy makes too large a share, it puts an impossible burden on his shoulders. There's no way he can perform well enough to "earn" that share of the total payroll. Teammates are not impressed with anything less than perfection, which is not possible to achieve. There's more sides to this but it's probably not worth an even long description. Suffice it to say that a team needs to be a rough circle of rough equals if it wants to win a lot of games. There's no other way to create the environment in which the players all take turns being The Man. And unless everyone gets a chance to be The Man, there's no way a baseball team is going to win a lot of games.

I have no idea what Kendall's role was in the chemistry of the clubhouse. I've never met him and I've never been in the clubhouse. But I can see why, in theory, the Captain A-Rod model is doomed to fail. I was never surprised when the Rangers failed to win with him. He was another owner, a player and co-manager, out there on the field, and all the wisdom and technique he had to share in practice only made his teammates look small on game day. Players can't be feeling or looking small if you want to have a winning team. So, I was not surprised to see them win without him. And of course he fits in just fine with the Yankees.

From college I remember Sartre's meditations on the French Revolution. Go read that if you really want to get deep on this subject. No mob will storm the Bastille while a member of the gentry leads them. It's basic human nature: a certain degree of equality is a prerequisite for meaningful team coordination. I'm not sure how Kendall was perceived by his 300K mates, but it didn't look good on paper.

I would like to see a study that compared income distribution and won/loss record. I would expect to see a correlation between payroll and winning, sure, but also a correlation between the equity of payroll distribution and winning. The fact that players have to put in three years at 300K-350K would probably exaggerate differences, however. There will also be guys on the payroll who aren't really on the team - Chan Ho Parks and Darren Dreiforts, for example - who make a shitload but aren't really in the mix of everyday players the way Lordship A-Rod was at Texas. This is a "team chemistry" thing. And it's a strength and a weakness of these arguments that they can't be settled with "advanced metrics." There's just no way any fan is going to know enough of what is going on behind-the-scenes to measure the degree to which the players intimidate, awe, resent, or just plain fuck with each other in the clubhouse.

Back to Eagle's report. Eagle also quotes Littlefield as suggesting the Pirates will get a catcher, but not necessarily a starting one:

With the durable Kendall out of the picture, backup catcher Humberto Cota will see more playing time. However, Cota, who has batted .241 with five home runs and 10 RBIs in 60 career big league games, will not be handed the starting job outright. Littlefield hopes to add a veteran backstop to the mix this offseason.

"We'll probably go out to get a catcher to add to Cota," said Littlefield. "I don't know that we have to designate one as a starting catcher necessarily. We do have a good feeling about Cota in the time that we've had him."

Because the Pirates recently discovered that catching prospect J.R. House still has a minor league option remaining, it is unlikely that the 25-year-old will be in competition for a starting job out of Spring Training.

I look forward to seeing the position settled. The temptation to run with Cota and House is pretty strong, especially if Craig Wilson could catch one day a week, but I have no idea how the Cota/House tandem would handle the young guys and/or if Craig Wilson remains fit for catching duties. Those would be good questions for Paul Meyer or Ed Eagle or David Littlefield. Somebody please ask them.

Finally, Redman said the right things:

"Six big league seasons and five different teams, I'm getting used to it," said Redman. "I'm glad to be back in the National League. I enjoyed it the one year I was in Florida. I look forward to coming there and pitching at PNC Park."

When asked if he was disappointed to be traded to a rebuilding team after spending the previous two seasons in the thick of playoff races, Redman cautioned reporters not to be so quick to count out the young Bucs' chances next season, using his 2003 Marlins team as an example of a club that came out of nowhere to win it all.

"No one expected them to be a championship-type team, especially the first two months of the season," said Redman. "We ended up going on and winning the World Series. Anything can happen in this game of baseball."

I like him already. He's my sleeper pick for the 2005 NL Cy Young award.

...bkopec of Batting Third thinks all the talk about having too much payroll in one player is a bunch of hooey. He found a number of teams with players eating a large share of the payroll and they weren't all bad. To that I'd say I'm not sure it refutes the claim that a team has to be a fused group, or a band of equals, to really succeed. I'm sure this is true in the "team chemistry" department. And while I might be right, bkopec is right to point out that the actual salary numbers probably don't tell us what we need to know about the effect uneven payroll can have on a team's ability to compete. Kendall certainly doesn't seem to have been a problem, and I'm definitely not laying the 2004 won-loss record at Kendall's feet. But he was due for a raise and we do have a whole bunch of other arbitration-eligible players who have also earned a raise. Anyway, huzza for bkopec for writing on the subject.

Trade frees $3M for 2005 payroll

Robert Dvorchak catches us up on this this and other details about the post-trade Pirates.

It sounds like the Pirates will acquire someone like Charles Johnson to catch. J.R. House can be returned to AAA and it sounds like he will return to AAA. Johnson's a guy who hit a ton when batting eighth or ninth in a loaded Chicago lineup. He's one of those guys that can surprise a team if they aren't paying a lot of attention to him as a threat. If you look at his three-year splits by batting position, you see he's only done regular 800 OPS service in the eighth spot. I doubt the Pirates could bat him eighth if they bring him in and pay him $1 or $2 million. His 2000 season - hitting at the bottom of a loaded lineup - and his 20-homer season as a Rockie will be two facts that will have him batting fifth or sixth or seventh for McClendon's team. And if pitchers key on him as one of the Pirates' main threats, they are going to beat him. That would be my expectation.

We can live with a no-hit catcher if he works wonders for the young pitchers. But Charles Johnson would come in with good-hit expectations and the odds are pretty good that he'll disappoint. I'd stay away from him if I was DL.

Redskins at Steelers

So far so good (Steelers 10, Redskins 0). What's up with Ben taking all these sacks? He's been a sackaholic.

Team 4: Bucs not making money

I should watch more TV if I want to learn more stuff like this.

Honest Wagner NFL pick 'em: week 12

VIS SPRD HME SCOOP BONES ROWDY
ind -8.5 DET ..DET ..ind ..ind
chi 03.5 DAL ..chi ..chi .chi*
cle 05.5 CIN .CIN* ..CIN ..CIN
snd -2.5 KSC .snd* .snd* ..KSC
jax 05.5 MIN ..MIN ..jax ..MIN
phl -6.5 NYG ..phl .phl* ..NYG
was 10.5 PIT ..PIT ..PIT ..PIT
tab -2.5 CAR ..tab ..tab .CAR*
ten -1.5 HOU ..ten .ten* .HOU*
nwo 09.5 ATL ..ATL ..ATL ..ATL
bal 06.5 NWE ..bal ..bal ..bal
mia 00.5 SNF ..mia ..mia ..SNF
buf 04.5 SEA .SEA* .SEA* ..buf
nyj -2.5 ARZ ..nyj ..nyj ..ARZ
oak 10.5 DEN ..oak ..DEN ..DEN
stl 06.5 GNB ..GNB .GNB* ..GNB
Asterisks indicate best bets.

Season to date:
Bones 91-69 .569
Scoop 88-72 .550
Rowdy 84-76 .525

Best bets
Bones 30-20 .600
Rowdy 33-25 .569
Scoop 18-15 .545

Dr. Bones: The ten and a half keeps PIT off my best bet list, but I still think they'll cover easy. I just don't see how this anemic Washington offense will be able to do anything. Meanwhile Duce will run, run, run. Steelers 27, Redskins 9.

Scoop: Sorry about being late with these. Give me losses for the turkey day games -- I did my sister-in-law's picks on those games for her pool yeasterday and missed horribly on both.

Rowdy: If I had known the Bears were going to wear those throwup throwback uniforms, I'd have gone with Dallas. Also, my "Sportsrage" Sports Illustrated came Friday and my picks are looking very Dr. Z. Speaking of "sportsrage," I've heard nothing but massive overreaction to that NBA brawl. Folks inclined to do "cultural criticism" of "historical moments" like that could turn their attention to all kinds of cultural practices that are far more prevalent and far less analyzed. Take video games, for example. When's the last time a sports department bobblehead got upset about the "violence" in the video-game versions of our favorite sports? Anyway these comments are way off topic. As Sunday approaches (it's Saturday night), my picks look really good to me. Maybe it's the bottle of two-buck Chuck. Good luck all my fellow pick 'em-ers.

Two huge chunks of baseball dead wood

I found this amusing. Oakland fans are just as irrational and reactionary as every other kind of fan, Moneyball or no Moneyball. Because of that book, however, they proceed with the "Beane is a genius" stuff with innocent self-delusion, even when they have to point out that Beane must have made some colossal blunders to wind up with "two huge chunks of baseball dead wood" on his roster.

Eric Gilmore may have his case. Fantasy baseball players routinely evaluate trades with the question, "Who got the best player?" Let them look at the trade this way.

But the trade can't be wisely evaluated today. All of this is premature self-gratification. (For one, the players haven't even passed their physicals yet. It's not a done deal.)

We'll attempt a preliminary judgement of the trade on Opening Day when we know for sure what the Pirates were able to do with the savings. Rhodes, like Steve Kline, has been an outstanding left-handed specialist for years and years. And like Kline, he's been so good managers have wanted to make him a closer. And like Kline, he hasn't been suited for doing that. If we hold on to Rhodes and use him in the eighth inning ahead of Mesa, I imagine it's not insane to expect a bounce-back season from him.

Mark Redman had one bad year. In 2000, he was a rookie of the year candidate and paired with Brad Radke when writers discussed how bright the future of the young Twins. In 2002, he had a very good year in Detroit. In 2003, he had an even better year in Florida. In 2004, he had an off-year. He was freakishly bad at home and freakishly good on the road. Overall, it was a down year. Is he now a "huge chunk of baseball dead wood"?

We'll have to wait and see. I'm hoping that Littlefield has followed that other fantasy baseball trading maxim, sell high and buy low. We've been expecting and hoping that the Pirates would sign some back-of-the-rotation soft-tossing lefty with the belief that one would complement the current staff while taking better advantage of the shape of our ballpark. Redman fits that order so I'm in no mood to complain.

The season starts April 4, 2005, at home against the Brewers. If the national media parrots the lines of self-gratification suggested by at least this one Oakland dittohead, Pirate fans will be in for another off-season of Test Your Patience.

Good thing we have plenty of that P-stuff. How else could we be here?

Mark Redman: The difference a year makes

FYI.

Perrotto on the available catchers

John Perrotto reviews the market for starting catchers.

Offense can't be the only consideration for a team that is rebuilding around young starting pitching. The available options, including all the catchers currently on the 40-man roster, don't look able to replace Kendall's offensive production. But perhaps one of these guys is better suited to start in Kendall's place for his abilities as a field general. I dunno.

Bettis to rest

Staley will start Sunday, giving the Bus some time off. If I ran the circus, I'd consider planning a rest-him rotation like the one the Steelers have employed this year. We don't want to go into the playoffs with the one, now-worn-down back that got us there. We've done that before. Jerome proved that he doesn't rust in the garage these days, so I'm happy that we'll stash him there and have him, at least in reserve, when the playoffs begin in six weeks. As long as Bettis doesn't tear his groin by tripping over the cat, or pull some kind of Brian Griese Chevy Chase-impersonation, he should benefit from the time off.

Adios Jason Kendall

Jason Kendall to Oakland for Diamond-ear Rhodes and Mark Redman. Robert Dvorchak has details in the PG. Bob Smizik is on it with today's column. (What is he -- a blogger?) The AP story can be found here, among many places.

The San Francisco Chronicle has two reports, one here and another here.

It sounds like the deal isn't final yet. If it goes through, we'll have plenty to talk about.

...Blez and the Athletics Nation are pretty happy this morning. As they should be.

It's hard to lose a player like Kendall, but I can live with this deal. We have a bunch of catchers without him (Cota, House, Craig Wilson, Ronny Paulino, and later, we hope, Neil Walker). The A's were eager to hustle Redman out the door to make room for Joe Blanton, and Rhodes wore out his welcome there when they asked him to close after he had been on the record saying he wasn't a closer. If we hold onto Rhodes, the bullpen is looking pretty fierce, and that's good news for the young starters.

...fri...Brian O'Neill offers his take in today's PG.

Complete batting and pitching statistics from 1871-2004: free

Get yer free stats here. All hail Sean Lahman.

Saw it at Primer.

Cannonball Crew tryouts

If your interested in clowning around and dancing on top of the dugout during the home games, don't miss the tryouts.

Sean Burnett, Grand Marshal

Life is good for Sean this week.

Redskins mood meter still low

Today the Redskins mood meter reads three. I'd-a sworn it read two yesterday. Go see for yourself and read about their rookie right tackle.

The Washington Post is also reporting everything it can learn about Justin Strelzcyk.

The Steelers are ten-and-a-half point favorites. The over/under is 35.5. For perspective, the Colts are eight-and-a-half point road favorites with an over/under of 53.5. In the first case, the spread is nearly one-third of the estimated final score. In the second case, the spread is nearly one-sixth of the estimated final score. The oddsmakers are telling us there's a 50% chance of complete and total domination. Can you say trap?

I may take the Steelers anyway. Still thinking about it.

the .500 season

Ed Eagle's new mailbag leads with a great question about the importance of a .500 season.

We don't have to be so fatalistic or melodramatic. A .500 team is a reasonable expectation, payroll be damned, and one all fans should have for next year. It's one I had for last year. I honestly don't think that all of the Bucs' recent losing can be pinned on the payroll. There was certainly a great deal of misfortune and a lot of incompetence or plain ol' short-sightedness with the selection and retention of particular veteran players.

But so what about the .500 season? The final record doesn't really matter at all, as far as I'm concerned. Baseball is an everyday sport. It's de rigeur for coaches, GMs, athletes, etc., to say that winning the World Series is the only acceptable goal. Fine, let them say that. But me, as a fan, I think that's bullshit. The only acceptable goal is winning today. The Pirates could be a .550 ballclub and if they got swept by the Cardinals, I'd be just as pissed or disappointed as I am when they lose a third game in a row as a .450 ballclub. There's no fun in losing and, regardless of the team's overall record, every win is pretty much equally good.

Too many baseball fans today hang back and blow off the middle of the season. They pay attention in March and April and then hang back until the autumn, when they cast an eye at the standings and decide if it's time to buy a new jersey or make plans to have a party and watch a game with friends. The crime there is that they miss a lot of good baseball. For every house party thrown to watch a playoff game, there should be one or two thrown to watch a regular-season game. The average fan misses so many opportunities to really enjoy the season. The best games are not the playoff games but the unexpectedly good ones on random Sunday afternoons or Tuesday nights. If that sounds like sour grapes, so what of that?

Let the GM and the players and the coaches talk about winning a World Series. I'll hope for that when they get into the playoffs because, duh, then they will be playing a game today and I'll want them to win today. My gripe about 2004 is not so much that the Pirates finished with a lousy record or failed to make the playoffs. My gripe is that they subjected me to too many long periods when I felt I was better off listening to Ray Charles than listening to another game with the possibly vain hope that they would snap an outrageous losing streak. The final record is not much of a disappointment by itself. I rarely sit around and think about it. In fact, now that I'm doing just that, I don't like it, which should be no surprise. I don't know how many games they won or lost in 2004. And I don't care. When the games begin again, I'll tune in. If they play on Tuesday, winning on Tuesday is what I hope for. Ditto for Wednesday. Any other way of evaluating a season fails to seize all the opportunities a fan has to enjoy the season. I can't relate to the mindset that says "I can't enjoy baseball today if my team isn't projected to be in the playoffs." If you find the prospect of another losing season so depressing, give up baseball for Ray Charles. Or pour your heart into the Steelers. No hobby should be such a burden.

Cowher in the Washington Post

Ryan of Heels, Sox, and Steelers fame calls our attention to the Washington Post's attention to Bill Cowher this week.

In other news, the Redskins mood meter is currently at 2, on a scale of 1 to 10.

I've always dated Cowher's growing infatuation with the very-stupid "wide-open" gadgetry offense to the 1994 Championship game and the 1995 Super Bowl. Both those teams featured overwhelming defense, power running, sure receiving and a caretaker quarterback. And in both those big games, the Steelers dominated their opponents for most of the game and lost to a few "big plays." And Cowher could be seen ranting, throughout the rest of roaring nineties, that "we need more big plays." My wife took to doing a Coach Cowher impression, in fact, which featured snarling, the big jaw, and "we need more BIG PLAYS." She barely tolerates the existence of football. She may not understand the difference between a little and a big play. And even she could tell that Cowher's eyes would get a little buggy when this subject arose.

That's how I'd begin my sketch of Cowher's descent into offensive idiocy, which gradually accelerated over the course of a decade: lose big games to big plays, blame it on an offense that lacks big-play ability, defend and nuture Michael Vick Kordell Stewart, watch the Rams rise, mistake Tommy Maddox for Kurt Warner, get shredded by pass-happy Raiders and Patriots in high-profile games, hire a series of morons to install increasingly inappropriate offenses, etc. and so on.

I call it idiocy because the Steelers don't play in a dome. How Coach Cowher - and the responsibility ultimately falls on his shoulders - would think a dome offense could work for a team that plays its more important games in 32 degree winter weather, is beyond me. Despite his temporary Captain Ahab-like obsession with getting more "big plays," Cowher has always had a number of other serious strengths as a coach. Though I disagreed with Ray Sherman and all things Mike Mularkey, I never felt compelled to wish for a coaching change.

Anyway it sure is great to get back to Steeler football. Run the ball, run the ball, run the ball. It's not Steeler football unless (a) they know you are going to run, (b) you run anyway, and (c) you average four yards per carry. God I love it when that happens.

And all hail Dick LeBeau. It's good to have him back.

Honest Wagner pick 'em: week 11 results

It was a star hole as we all finished under par. Dr. Bones 12-4, Scoop 10-6, and Rowdy 9-7 overall with best bet records of Scoop 5-2, Dr. Bones 5-0, and Rowdy 3-1. Here's hoping that Clay parlayed Dr. Bones's best bets while he was in Vegas last weekend. The total records now look like Dr. Bones 91-69, Scoop 88-72, Rowdy 84-76 with best bet totals of Dr. Bones 30-20, Rowdy 33-25, and Scoop 18-15.

This is a short week with games to pick for Thursday. The Colts are favored by eight or nine over the Lions, which looks about right, and the Cowboys are spotting three or four to the Bears, which is probably fair. As Gregg Easterbrook often reminds his readers, the Lions and the Cowboys win a disproportionate number of these Turkey-day games.

Washington Nationals

Official site.

Kendall rumor, chapter 49

Joey G calls our attention to Ken Rosenthal's latest. Here is the relevant Kendall stuff:

In addition to exploring trades for one of their top three starting pitchers, the A's are also involved in two- and three-team discussions regarding Pirates C Jason Kendall, who is guaranteed $34 million over the next three seasons. A straight trade between the A's and Pirates likely would involve the Pirates receiving LHPs Mark Redman and Arthur Rhodes, who are owed $16.15 million combined over the next two seasons. Kendall also could land with the Dodgers--straight up or via the A's--with the Pirates possibly seeking Dodgers CF Milton Bradley. The expected loss of free-agent CF Steve Finley makes a trade of Bradley unlikely. . . .

So what do we think of these rumored deals?

I see the Kendall situation as pretty win-win. He's a great player for Pittsburgh and I'm happy to keep him around. On the other hand, he makes a large, perhaps too large, percentage of the team's overall salary.

More on this later. Thanks to Joey G for the link and the email.

... to clarify. It's win-win only if the savings gets re-invested. It's not win-win for the fans, obviously, if Kendall is given away Aramis Ramirez-style and the money is just so much more profit for the team owners. I have more to say and have said more about the possibility that it's bad for the team when one guy gets too much of the cake, and would point to the recent "Coach A-Rod" problem in Texas, but I'll have to save all that for another day.

More on Davis and Alvarez

Robert Dvorchak wrote up the recent 40-man transactions over the weekend. The Bucs have ten days to trade Davis, Alvarez, or Nunez before they must put them on waivers. If any of those guys have any value, they should receive an offer or two.

Steelers at Bengals, now with dancing

In the recap that appeared online right after the game, these were the last two paragraphs:

The heave to Johnson gave the chatty receiver a chance to make good on his promise of a new touchdown celebration. He stretched high above Deshea Townsend to make the catch, landed on the cornerback's back and rolled into the end zone, then popped up and did a jig that involved punching like a fighter.

[Kelley] Washington got to do his little touchdown dance – a squirm-and-shake called The Squirrel – after catching a 19-yard pass from Palmer, who finished 13-of-25 for 165 yards with three sacks.

Dance coverage! I love it.

But in the revised recap, the AP story reads like this:

Afterward, coach Marvin Lewis uncharacteristically screamed at his team in the locker room.

"This is the angriest I've been," said Lewis, who always tries to accentuate the positive. "We're not going to accept mediocrity. If we accept getting close, if we accept leading in the first half, we're not going to get any better. We're not going to accept that."

With Pittsburgh out of sync in the first half, the Bengals did a little dancing.

Chad Johnson made good on his promise of a new touchdown celebration, an end-zone boogie after his acrobatic 36-yard catch. Kelley Washington also swayed and squirmed in the end zone after his 19-yard touchdown put Cincinnati up 14-10.

In no time, the dancing ended and Lewis' screaming began.

"Everybody feels like that," said Palmer, who was 13-of-25 for 165 yards. "Everybody's frustrated. It makes everybody feel the way Marvin feels. Everybody knows he's right."

Not a kinder, gentler rewrite.

I may be alone with this opinion, but I'd like to see even more expanded coverage of the dancing players do on the field. Think about it. Would you rather read the revised version, with the light details of Johnson's "end-zone boogie," or the earlier revision, with the fuller details reporting how Johnson "popped up and did a jig that involved punching like a fighter." Also note that while a "jig" is in fact a dance, a "boogie" is not really a dance but a kind of music conducive for dancing. To really do an end-zone boogie, the receiver would have to squat and feign like he's playing the piano, Will Bradley-style.

Every generation has to take what they inherit from their grandparents and make it their own. The flying wedge; the forward pass; crash helmets and body armor; obviously the time has come to replace for the rising generation to re-make football. Why not replace the extra point with a dancing event? If the fans demand it, we can make it happen. A scoring player can spike the ball or slam-dunk it over the goal post for an easy one. By attempting more riskier, difficult, and potentially embarrassing moves, the scoring player should be able to earn (or give back) three additional points. The refs can use instant replay if necessary. What better way to bring the game of football into the twenty-first century?

I wouldn't be able to joke about all this if the Steelers lost, so here's to winning and getting other coaches all out of character. All hail the Steelers! With nine wins, I think we can start thinking about the playoffs without making the usual Jim Mora jokes.

Steelers at Bengals

I see a lot of reasons to like the Steelers today. If they win as they should against a well-known division opponent, they'll maintain that status, in my eyes, as Super Bowl contenders. If they fall on their face, I'll have serious doubts.

...well, the kinda fell on their face, but they still managed to win convincingly. Good omen.

40-man shuffle

Sweet.

All hail David Littlefield!

the Nationals

Ugh. Note how they blamed Pittsburgh for the decision not to honor the Grays. Weak.

Off to feast

I'm leaving now for Rowdietta's toddler-room Thanksgiving feast. I don't know when we'd hear news of any roster moves today even if they are to happen today, but I'd check the Pirates' home page and the ESPN news wire. The wire should contain some other fun news such as the trade of Jose Guillen to the Expos Grays.

... P.S. If you're the first to know, do us a favor and drop the news and/or a link in the comments.

Brian Graham on the AFL Pirates

Ed Eagle reports that the Pirates were pleased with their men in the AFL.

You have to think they plan to make room for the guys here who need protecting. Last year, when the Pirates sent players to the AFL and they went unprotected and were taken in the Rule V draft, at least one Pittsburgh columnist accused them of "showcasing" that talent so they could make $50,000 per prospect lost. It would be pretty self-destructive to find the front office repeating this process two years in a row.

One of the week's best games

ESPN's John Clayton tags the Steelers-Bengals game as one of the week's best.

Ever since the week 3 game at Miami on Sunday night, the Steelers have been playing in one of each week's most important or interesting games. This is the advantage of a demanding schedule: teams don't let up when they are so obviously in the spotlight. Freaky upsets are more common in the shitty games than they are in the marquee matchups. The fact that the Steelers and Bengals would be playing in one of the better games was a factor in my decision to best-bet them this weekend. I'd be more worried if the Steelers were flying to Oakland to play a game that would be overshadowed by others also taking place at that hour.

NFL pundits pay too much attention to strength of schedule going forward. If team A only plays in two tough, obviously-marquee games, and team B has five gems on the schedule, I'm not so sure team A has that great an advantage. Team A may be more likely to win more of the remaining games, but team B may be ready to whoop it up on team A when they meet in the playoffs.

Time to protect guys

Today or maybe tomorrow, the Bucs have to make a bunch of roster moves to protect some of their best minor-league talent from the Rule V draft.

As Clay points out in the comments, Joe Rutter is on the story. Rutter writes:

Littlefield not only must decide which players to add to the roster, but which to subtract. Although he currently has three roster vacancies, Littlefield has at least seven minor-league prospects vying for inclusion on the 40-man. They are first baseman Brad Eldred, outfielders Chris Duffy, Nate McLouth and Rajai Davis, and pitchers Matt Peterson, Leo Nunez and Jeff Miller.

If those prospects aren't protected, they could be lost in the Rule 5 draft next month.

I'd say the situation is a little different. If they aren't protected, it's not that they could be lost but that they will be lost. Hour one of any team's preparation for the Rule V draft - after last year - is scouring the Pirates' farm system. Hour two is deciding what the hell, even if there's little chance we'll be able to keep a player on the 25-man roster all year, let's go ahead and select him anyway. Hour three is coming up with plans to trade these guys back to the Pirates, Jose Bautista-style.

I'm not one of those whiny fatalists - like Kris Benson - who think the Pirates can't compete on a limited budget. The thing is, though, that small-budget teams must pursue different strategies than big-market teams. And lately, the big-market team strategy involves collecting and/or manufacturing "prospects" that can be traded to small-market teams for big-salary players. If the Yankees had the Pirates' minor-league depth, they'd trade it in two weeks to acquire Randy Johnson and other players who cannot be traded without a sufficiently face-saving number of "prospects." It may very well be the case that unproven prospects like Rajai Davis would have more trade value for teams like the Yankees than possibly-more-promising guys like J.J. Davis, who have already been given a bite at the apple. I think we've reached a point where untested Rule V nabs may be more valuable to some teams than "proven failures" nabbed off waivers. I just can't believe that all the league wants J.J. Davis and Carlos Rivera as much as they want younger, less proven dudes that can be thrown into a deal to a small-market club.

I don't know the exact reasoning and calculus that determines if, say, J.J. Davis is more valuable to the 2005 and 2006 Pirates than Leo Nunez. I'm not going to embarrass myself by presuming to know more about the minor-league guys than the front office. Few fans are so knowledgeable that they can honestly put themselves in the position of making demands - the Pirates must protect so-n-so, the Pirates must release so-n-so, etc.

On the other hand, I do think we can safely guess that the rest of the league will feast upon whatever Littlefield leaves unprotected. Not protecting some of these guys is tantamount to cutting them. There can be no more surprise, feigned or otherwise, when the Red Sox claim one of our scrubby minor-league relief pitchers.

And for the record, I am rooting for those seven players Joe Rutter identifies. Part of being a Pirate fan these days is casting longing looks at the minor-league teams and indulging in mid-day reveries of these youngsters coming up and doing better than J.J. Davis, Tony Alvarez, and Carlos Rivera. We have a lot of hope tied up in those names and a lot of frustration tied up in the J.J. Davis crew.

Chris and Damon Liss, now using the Force

Regular readers know I'm a huge fan of Rotowire, which I plug now and again without incentive or even knowing any of the people involved with that site. During the football season, one of the weekly delights, for me at least, is Chris and Damon Liss's Beating the Book, a weekly feature where they roll out picks against the spread and then attempt to justify them.

Several years ago - I think it was 1999 - the Liss brothers were tremendously good at making the picks. They've struggled over the last few years, however, and last week returned them to .500 on the season and brought forth this week's manifesto.

One of the more amusing aspects of the weekly feature is how Chris and Damon regularly go over the previous week's selections and address each case where they were wrong, breaking the wrong guesses down into categories such as we-should-have-known-better, who-could-have-seen-that-coming, and that-will-never-happen-again. This is an exercise I don't recommend. It's one thing to go over where you went wrong, but it's another to assume that the final score was the only possible or probable final score. Just because a pick made you look stupid, that doesn't mean you are stupid. You have to expect to be wrong. And furhter, it's fun to look stupid once you embrace the accidental or random nature of looking stupid.

I wish I could link or copy the whole Liss brother pick 'em manifesto, but since they charge for access, I won't do that. Go read it (at the above link) if you have a subscription. Here's the thesis of this week's dissertation against the use of spreadsheets and formulas:

Picking games should be a spiritual pursuit, one where you have to master the limiting forces within yourself and connect with the purity of observation-derived insight.

God, I love that. They arrive at this after many paragraphs inveighing against the wisdom to be found in the usual offensive and defensive statistics.

The best person I've ever known at picking games against the spread is Dr. Bones, who usually claims to make all his picks in something under five minutes. For the most part, I believe he's telling the truth.

I've long thought that NFL statistics are mainly meaningless outside the context of wins and losses. I'll post long studies of Bucco hitters and pitchers using advanced metrics and what-not but you'll never catch me talking about the predictive meaning of things like Yards Per Passing Attempt. The statistics are useful as descriptions of what happened (e.g., Duce ran for 100 yards in four straight games) but useless as predictors of what will happen.

This is one of the reasons I fairly despise fantasy football. All that matters in football is the end result. The fact of winning or losing overshadows all other facts. In baseball, an individual's numeric performance says a lot about his contribution to the team's winning and losing. There's much more correlation between individual numbers and winning and losing. A quarterback can throw for 350 yards and lose. This often happens. Not too many baseball teams lose, however, when their leftfielder has six or eight RBIs. Fantasy baseball improves a regular fan's appreciation of the game; fantasy football, I think, only perverts it.

Good luck, Liss brothers, mastering the limiting forces within yourself. My one piece of advice would be to accept the real possibility that your wisest picks won't pan out. A corollary of this is not to take credit or adjust your opinion of yourself when things are going well. And oh yeah, I think it's a good idea to stop paying attention to things like how a team's rushing defense ranks or what kind of turnover differential they are currently running. You can avoid getting murdered by playing Pure Hunches provided you adopt the right attitude toward the various events that create or cause some teams to have greater Hunch appeal than others.

DL answers questions

Over at MLB.com, Ed Eagle has posted another Q & A with the Pirates GM. He talks up some of the prospects we expect to see him protect tomorrow from the Rule V draft.

Honest Wagner NFL pick 'em: week 11

VIS SPRD HME SCOOP BONES ROWDY
det 07.5 MIN ..det ..det ..det
den -4.5 NWO ..NWO ..NWO ..NWO
snf 07.5 TAB ..TAB ..TAB ..TAB
arz 02.5 CAR ..arz ..arz .CAR*
ten 02.5 JAX .JAX* ..JAX ..JAX
dal 07.5 BAL .BAL* .BAL* .BAL*
stl -1.5 BUF .BUF* ..BUF ..BUF
ind -7.5 CHI .CHI* .ind* .CHI*
pit -4.5 CIN ..pit .pit* .pit*
nyj -0.5 CLE ..nyj ..nyj ..CLE
snd -3.5 OAK ..OAK ..snd ..snd
mia 09.5 SEA ..SEA ..mia ..SEA
atl -2.5 NYG .atl* ..NYG ..NYG
was 10.5 PHL ..PHL ..PHL ..PHL
gnb -2.5 HOU .gnb* .gnb* ..HOU
nwe -2.5 KSC .nwe* .nwe* ..nwe

Asterisks indicate best bets.

Season to date:
Bones 79-65 .549
Scoop 78-66 .542
Rowdy 75-69 .521

Best bets:
Bones 25-20 .556
Rowdy 30-24 .556
Scoop 13-13 .500

Comments:

Scoop: Kip sees lots of bargains this week. [Ed. note: The name of Scoop's football-picking horse is Kip Smells.]

Dr. Bones: I had to prognosticate all quick-like this week, as four-day weekend trip up the river looms. I saw firsthand many of the pistol-whippings Carson Palmer used to drop on the PAC-10 back in the day, so he's earned my respect as a true gamer. But while Cincy's a tougher opponent than the sorry Browns, they're still not good and Pit should cover easy. Cincy can't stop the run while we can, so look for another line-of-scrimmage and time-of-possession domination by the good guys. Steelers 31, Bengals 17.

Rowdy: I'm going back to Carolina at home. This is their fifth attempt to win their first home game. Every NFL must win some at home, so I'm guessing Rodney Peete and Nick Goings take care of the upstart Arizona team. The Bears have something going on. With no disrespect to the great Dwight Freeney, I'd say the Colts aren't so good on defense. They also appear to be running a dome offense. This team doesn't deserve to be touchdown-plus favorites at Soldier Field. That's nutty. I may be overreacting to what I saw on Monday Night, but I guess the Ravens will have no problem crushing Dallas' puny offense as they watch the scoreboard reporting the fact that the Steelers are taking care of business in Cincinnati.

new Paul Meyer Q & A

Gather round. I was especially amused by the rant from Terry Mattee of Boise, Idaho.

Butler group make 2006 MLB schedule

Maybe we can work the refs and get these good people to take extra special care of the Pirates.

As for our wish list, let's see ... where to begin. Day games in April; April road trips to Arizona and San Diego, where they play day games; no road trips to Enron at all - the Astros can play all their division games with us at PNC Park; all Pirate opponents play six games in Colorado before coming to PNC.

What else should we ask for?

P.S. I found the link at Primer.

Honest Wagner NFL pick 'em: week 10 results

Scoop will be extra generous with the sugar cubes if he wants to get back into the good graces of the talking horses who help him in the pick 'em game. He had a rough week, going 4-10 overall with an 0 for 1 in the best bet department. Rowdy made a move with a 9-5 overall and 3-1 best bet performance. Bones now leads after a 6-8 overall, 3-2 best bet weekend. The totals now read Bones 79-65, Scoop 78-66, Rowdy 75-69, and Bones 25-20, Rowdy 30-24, Scoop 13-13.

Looking ahead, I see that week eleven looks like the first round in some mega-playoff tournament. Only one game features two teams with records better than .500: 7-2 Atlanta will play in 5-4 New York, where the Giants, evidently suffering from Big Ben envy, look for their own lightning-in-a-bottle from Eli Manning. Good luck with that, Tom Coughlin. Elsewhere, the better teams in the league are playing lower seeds. The 8-1 Steelers go to Cincinnati to play the 4-5 Bengals. The 8-1 Eagles host the 3-6 Redskins. The 8-1 Patriots travel to Arrowhead to face the 3-6 Chiefs. It's a whole day of such games, and there aren't many division matchups so many of them have a weird novelty. San Francisco at Tampa Bay. Miami at Seattle. Arizona at Carolina. Should be fun. Maybe. Or maybe not. We'll see.

The Bengals will challenge the Steelers, who were not challenged last week by the truly weak Cleveland team. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati may be one of the best-played games of the weekend, too, as both teams are executing and riding win streaks.

Ed Eagle mailbag

Ed Eagle guesses that the Bucs will sign an Omar Daal or two from the free agent buffet. That's also my guess, perhaps because I read a lot of Ed Eagle's writing.

He also predicts the Bucs remove Noonie and Paulino and Davis, if they can trade him, to make 40-man roster room. He gives the deadline for these moves as November 20. I thought it was November 19, but that's just from memory, and I know better than to put too much stock in my memory.

All eyes will turn to David Littlefield to see how he negotiates the 40-man roster thing as the rosters lock down before the Rule 5 draft. I've always assumed he'll do fine and show he can learn from his mistakes. At the very least, if he lets a guy like Eldred go, I expect we'll get some kind of good explanation from him. Public relations is not the GM's job but the fans can fairly expect the GM to explain his decisions when they create an outcry. It's probably good for the Bucs for Littlefield to play his hand close to his chest, and it may even be good for the team to promote the idea that he's a moron, at least among other GMs, who may get overconfident in trade negotiations. But such an "edge" could look pretty negligible if the GM's "erratic" behavior enrages the fans and thus discourages advance ticket sales. I don't envy Littlefield his job, that's for sure.

Blitzburgh versus the spread formation

PFW also also reports that LeBeau's blitz schemes have done a lot to relieve the pressure on the Steelers' secondary.

That, I'd say, and recently owning a 2-1 time of possession advantage.

Running it up

Jeff Reynolds of Pro Football Weekly looks at the Colts game and faults Manning for running it up. I'm of two minds on this. For one, as a fan, I'd always rather win by twenty than by two. I'm not a sports fan because I'm addicted to adrenaline or have some need for cliff-hanging escape sensations. If my team can win big, I think they should.

On the other hand, there's no doubt that Manning is not playing Steeler football. A big win should be reflected in the time of possession as much as it's reflected in the scoreboard.

I've always regarded Manning as someone who cares too much about his fantasy stats. He gets a free pass on the character issues because he's such a motivational-speechifyin' huckster in the offseason. But that's just me. And I don't pay much attention to the Colts so take all that with the usual grain of salt.

The end of Redbird Nation

Brian Gunn has hung 'em up and retired Redbird Nation.

So long, Brian.

Mesa vs. Vizquel

Should be fun, in a William Green-Joey Porter kind of way, next April 29.

(Background here.)

Steeler JV wins in Cleveland

That is the accurate-enough theme of Ed Bouchette's report.

Butch Davis is toast. The Browns could lose out, or at least that's the impression I get from the great modern historian of the Brownies, Terry Pluto. Jeff Garcia doesn't sound happy, either.

Boller was decent in the Raisins' comeback win in New York. Both those teams are among the eight competing for a playoff spot in the AFC.

The Bengals dominated Washington in a game the Redskins should have won. If you can't win the non-division home games against non-playoff-caliber teams, well, then you can't win much at all. The Bengals now have my attention and not because they wear a new funny uniform each week. (On Sunday I expect them to come out with full Bengal-print bodysuits.) Winning leads to winning and the Cincinnati team has won two in a row.

In other AFC news, what has happened to the Titans? In my mind, I've always grouped Cowher, Wannstadt, and Fisher together. I expected more from Fisher's team this year. Wannstadt's current employment situation has me wondering if Fisher is also near the end of his tenure. We all know that before this season people were starting to question Cowher's future.

Steelers at Browns

The Joey Porter for William Green trade is not a good one for our guys.

Use this thread for comments on the game.

strange Steelers dream

Last night I dreamt that Max Starks lined up in the backfield, slipped a blitzer, caught a screen pass and rumbled downfield, juking left and right, for a three-yard gain.

Sanchez: I feel so good

Cue the J.B. Lenoir:

Saguaros second baseman Freddy Sanchez (Pirates) is having a banner fall after fully recovering from foot and leg injuries that hampered him all season at Triple-A Nashville. Sanchez is hitting .353 in 85 at-bats and has shown some pop with three homers and 16 RBIs. “This is the best I’ve felt probably in two years,” Sanchez said. “I feel better at the plate with using my lower half again and that’s allowing me to drive balls better. And that’s giving me more confidence in the field. Honestly, I’m just feeling great about the way things are coming together after being frustrated for so long. In a way, it’s just this feeling of relief—like finally things are falling into place again.”

That's Chris Kline's paragraph from his AFL notebook at Baseball America. I found it copied at Rotowire.

Free agent prediction contest

There is one at Primer. So far, folks have guessed the following players will sign with Pittsburgh:

Castilla, Vinny
Nelson, Jeff
Counsell, Craig
Sexson, Richie
Burnitz, Jeremy
Alomar, Roberto
Dye, Jermaine
Larkin, Barry
Valentin, Jose
Glaus, Troy
Halama, John
Randa, Joe
Gonzalez, Juan
Koskie, Corey
Mabry, John
Nomo, Hideo
Finley, Steve
Reese, Pokey
Lieber, Jon
Perez, Odalis
Kent, Jeff
Alfonseca, Antonio

Some of that is crazy talk. Burnitz is cheap left-handed power so that could make sense. A lefthanded starter like Odalis or Halama would also fit an obvious immediate need. My guess is the Pirates don't sign a third baseman and just go with Wigginton for a year.

Charlie wrote about the Klesko-for-Kendall rumors a few days ago. I've been thinking about it and this could work for the Bucs. As much as I'd hate to lose Kendall, it's probably not right to have one guy making a whole shitload more than everyone else. We saw what happened in Texas when they unloaded Alex Rodriguez. And we have a number of very good catching prospects who are worth a look.

Hot Boy

He can run, but can he block?

Ed Bouchette writes up "Hot Boy" Parker as he gets set to see his first big dose of PT.

I could be wrong about this, but I see the decision/need to rest Staley and/or Bettis even mid-season in the context of those years when the Steelers would plow through the regular season and enter the playoffs with a torn groin or something like that on Bettis. In my mind, it's pretty clear that the power running game is good for the offensive line. All they gotta do is push and the play is over. But of course the ball carriers pay a price. Fu and Zereoue were solid backups, but I prefer the current arrangement with solid backups and two number one guys.

some GM meetings gossip

Ken Rosenthal has some. How well would Adam Dunn fit into PNC Park?

Deshea Townsend getting respect

Gerry Dulac writes up the evident improvement in Deshea Townsend's game. Pro Football Weekly also reported his improvement this week (last whisper on the page).

Big Money, Big Mouth

Gerard Warren is a real moron.

Pirates re-sign Mesa, Torres

Ed Eagle reports. Mesa got more money than I expected. Littlefield acknowledges that the 58-year-old Mesa's career may be winding down. He and Mac both credit Mesa's ability to mentor the young guys as a reason for wanting him back.

This is something of a high-risk, low-reward situation for Littlefield. If Mesa pitches like he did last year, then he's a genius, again. If Mesa falters and someone else steps in and pitches great, then Littlefield will be mocked. Heck, I'll bet he'll be mocked for this today. If that someone else pitches great in part because he's been emulating Mesa, few fans will see that, and everyone will think the Pirates could have saved the money and just begun the year with the younger guy.

A team that builds around young pitching has to have a strong bullpen. And I'm a believer in the team having some veterans. Looks to me like Littlefield's strategy is this: if it isn't broke, don't fix it; if it works, don't mess with it. The bullpen was good last year and the team will return it intact. Makes sense to me.

The most significant long-term danger to the team is the loss of a prospect who could have filled Mesa's roster spot. It will take a few years to find out.

Speaking of the prospects, that deadline for getting guy on the 40-man roster is coming up next I think.

Better SI cover

Dr. Bones: Yeah, that new SI cover sucks. Where are Plax's legs? All the clutter makes it even worse. And the yellow is awful, looks like a frigging National Geographic issue on siamese twin athletes. Now THIS SI cover ruled. I put this up on the wall of Bones and Rowdy's room when we were kids and still think it epitomizes everything Good in this universe.

Honest Wagner NFL pick 'em: week 10

VIS SPRD HME SCOOP BONES ROWDY
ksc -4.5 NWO ..NWO ..ksc ..NWO
bal -1.5 NYJ ..NYJ ..bal ..bal
det 03.5 JAX ..det ..det ..JAX
tab 03.5 ATL ..tab ..tab .ATL*
pit -4.5 CLE ..pit .pit* .pit*
sea 00.5 STL ..sea .STL* ..sea
chi 01.5 TEN ..TEN ..chi .TEN*
hou 09.5 IND ..hou .IND* ..hou
cin 03.5 WAS ..cin ..cin ..WAS
min 03.5 GNB .GNB* .GNB* .min*
nyg -2.5 ARZ ..nyg ..nyg ..ARZ
car 00.5 SNF ..SNF .SNF* ..SNF
buf 08.5 NWE ..buf ..buf ..NWE
phl -6.5 DAL ..phl ..DAL ..phl

Asterisks indicate best bets.

Season to date
Scoop 74-56 .569
Bones 73-57 .561
Rowdy 66-64 .508

Best bets
Bones 22-18 .550
Rowdy 27-23 .540
Scoop 13-12 .520

Comments:

Nothing from Scoop as he plays this hand.

Dr. Bones is having fever dreams of the sieve-like and ragged Cleveland OL introducing Garcia to a world of pain. Back-up Kelly enters but proves ineffectual. Steelers 27, Browns 9.

Speaking of dreams, Rowdy needs sleep. Little Rowdietta, bless her heart, has been playing rooster for about ten days running. And when the two-year-old says, "Time to get up," she means now. Dawn is a beautiful thing but it's getting old. A few days back she got up and started grabbing at the usually-off-limits TV/stereo setup. "I want to see football," she said. "Rowdietta," I said, "It's seven in the morning and Tuesday. When is football on?" She stopped mussing with the third-floor Marantz and looked at me. "Sunday," she said.

Regarding the Steelers, Rowdy had a long conversation around the water cooler today with Steeler fan expressing his hope that the Steelers lose one before the playoffs "so they get that out of the way." Rowdy abused said fan at length. Losing leads to more losing. Only winning leads to more winning. Like Bones, I can't see this being very close at the end. Go other Rowdy I mean Rotty.

Roethlisberger has a blog

I kid you not. Part of a whole big website thinger.

Steelers on cover of SI

Image here. I'll get mine in the mail tomorrow.

I'm not thrilled about this cover. That's a weird two-headed, three-armed Hines Ward picture. Slapped-on ad for Dr. Z's amazingly wrong (well, recently) SU picks. The whole thing is too crowded. The yellow border is an eyesore. And wtf is up with Kobe on the top there? Or the you're-kids-are-fat thing in the lower right? I can't hang that thing on the wall of the drinking room.

Shame on SI for botching this opportunity to elevate the quality of their magazine with a cover that better expresses pure Steeler greatness.

need help with Chicago at Tennessee line

I can't find a line anywhere, probably because of McNair. We use Wednesday AM lines to make picks by Thursday noon. Looking at the Sagarin ratings, where Chicago is ahead by about two points, I guess a good line would be Da Bears plus one-five. Any better ideas?

Double Yoi!

Get well, Myron Cope. They should add him to the official injury report.

Honest Wagner NFL pick 'em: week 9 results

I got beat like an Ohio Democrat in Week 9. The Steelers crushed Philadelphia, as expected, in one of the first 1pm games to end. As the other early games ended, favorable returns poured in for me. Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay were all handing it to their opponents. Miami had gone ahead and needed only a defensive stop to ice a six-point victory over the Arizona team. I was poised to make up some ground on Scoop. The 4pm exit polls showed Rowdy with a clear lead.

Then I suffered a 1-for-6 run. Not much went even close to right in the late afternoon games. And the later I stayed up, the worse it got. In the wee hours of the next day, all eyes were on the team from northeast Ohio, which was still playing and striving to overcome a slim deficit with less than a minute to play in the game. And at the end of the Sunday night game, Jeff Garcia, Cleveland's "San Francisco" quarterback, threw a sure-touchdown pass from five yards out to some scrubby Brown. The Browns had outplayed the Ravens for most of the night. A tie was imminent. I liked their chances in overtime. My best bet would come through. But said scrubby Brown was mugged by Ray Lewis. Oh no! he gave up the ball. Some random Raven caught it and ran 106 yards for a game-ending interception return. Despite the fact that the Browns played better than most expected, the scoreboard indicated a clear mandate for the Baltimore team. I picked up my eighth pick 'em loss of the day and thus ended my bid for a majority in the contest.

Looking ahead at week 10, two things come to mind. First of all, it's mid-November. It's giving up time. I'll declare all of these teams hopelessly back in the playoff picture: Buffalo, Miami, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Washington, Carolina, and San Francisco. I don't expect them to show much the rest of the way. Buffalo has won two but they are already three games out of the wild card. Denver, San Diego, and New York have much better points scored vs. points allowed ratios and look far more likely to win nine.

The second thing in my mind this afternoon as I look at week ten is the Steelers' game at Cleveland. Election night was a huge frustration and disappointment for Clevelanders and so was Sunday Night Football. The current coverage of the Browns is pretty comical. (The shank headlines are especially good.)

These guys are down but not out. I expect everyone will continue to mock the Browns for the rest of the week. The Steelers will go in as a huge favorite. The Browns injury report will be especially encouraging for Steeler fans - the Browns lost yet another starting offensive lineman and may only have one or two wideouts healthy enough to play. All signs point to further Brownie meltdown.

Have fun laughing at them, but don't believe they'll be so sorry come Sunday. Browns stadium will fill up. There will be a lot of Steelers fans there, but I don't think the Steelers minority will have as easy a time overwhelming the hometown fans as they did in Dallas. About an hour before kickoff, the Brownies will dry their cryin' eyes. When the game starts, they'll play sloppy and sorry but scrappy and desperate. The Steelers better be ready. There's nothing more dangerous than a desperate opponent. If anything can salvage the Brownies' season right now, it's a big upset win over the Steelers. We all know better than to take any of the division games for granted and this week, I hope Coach Cowher can persuade the team to take these guys seriously. Every division win is huge and we need them all if we expect to send Baltimore home early or to a first-round wild-card playoff game.

P.S. The final numbers were Bones 7-7, Scoop and Rowdy 6-8, and in best bets, Bones 3-2, Scoop 2-2, and Rowdy 3-3.

The 2005 Ford C. Frick award

The Baseball Hall of Fame invites fans to participate in the selection process for the 2005 Ford C. Frick award, which is something they give to broadcasters. The ballot is here.

MLB.com has more information about the eligible Bucs here.

All Hail Jason Bay

National League Rookie of the Year.

Congratulations to him!

...I recommend the Ed Eagle audio link under the headline on that page.

ROY awards announced today

Sometime around 2pm we'll find out if Jason Bay won the NL Rookie of the Year award from the baseball writers.

Bay sounds confident in this Canadian article. We've been over this a zillion times at Honest Wagner. We think Bay deserves it hands-down. If the nod goes to Greene, though, so be it. That's the last we'll say about it.

The wheels on the Bus

Oh my goodness. Hats off to the Stillers for stomping a great big mudhole into the Eagles today. Yikes. I listened to the first half of Total Domination at the park today while Bones Jr. spun the jungle gym's steering wheel, appropriately chanting "round and round, round and round." Inspection of the boxscore makes this win even more impressive. Steeler time-of-possession = 41:49. Rushing yards 252-23. Eagles 0 for 9 on 3rd and 4th down. Eagles punted 6 times, Steelers zero. A veritable pistol-whipping.

Eagles at Steelers

Thoughts? Comments about the game?