Tuesday, November 09, 2004

Honest Wagner NFL pick 'em: week 9 results

I got beat like an Ohio Democrat in Week 9. The Steelers crushed Philadelphia, as expected, in one of the first 1pm games to end. As the other early games ended, favorable returns poured in for me. Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Tampa Bay were all handing it to their opponents. Miami had gone ahead and needed only a defensive stop to ice a six-point victory over the Arizona team. I was poised to make up some ground on Scoop. The 4pm exit polls showed Rowdy with a clear lead.

Then I suffered a 1-for-6 run. Not much went even close to right in the late afternoon games. And the later I stayed up, the worse it got. In the wee hours of the next day, all eyes were on the team from northeast Ohio, which was still playing and striving to overcome a slim deficit with less than a minute to play in the game. And at the end of the Sunday night game, Jeff Garcia, Cleveland's "San Francisco" quarterback, threw a sure-touchdown pass from five yards out to some scrubby Brown. The Browns had outplayed the Ravens for most of the night. A tie was imminent. I liked their chances in overtime. My best bet would come through. But said scrubby Brown was mugged by Ray Lewis. Oh no! he gave up the ball. Some random Raven caught it and ran 106 yards for a game-ending interception return. Despite the fact that the Browns played better than most expected, the scoreboard indicated a clear mandate for the Baltimore team. I picked up my eighth pick 'em loss of the day and thus ended my bid for a majority in the contest.

Looking ahead at week 10, two things come to mind. First of all, it's mid-November. It's giving up time. I'll declare all of these teams hopelessly back in the playoff picture: Buffalo, Miami, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Washington, Carolina, and San Francisco. I don't expect them to show much the rest of the way. Buffalo has won two but they are already three games out of the wild card. Denver, San Diego, and New York have much better points scored vs. points allowed ratios and look far more likely to win nine.

The second thing in my mind this afternoon as I look at week ten is the Steelers' game at Cleveland. Election night was a huge frustration and disappointment for Clevelanders and so was Sunday Night Football. The current coverage of the Browns is pretty comical. (The shank headlines are especially good.)

These guys are down but not out. I expect everyone will continue to mock the Browns for the rest of the week. The Steelers will go in as a huge favorite. The Browns injury report will be especially encouraging for Steeler fans - the Browns lost yet another starting offensive lineman and may only have one or two wideouts healthy enough to play. All signs point to further Brownie meltdown.

Have fun laughing at them, but don't believe they'll be so sorry come Sunday. Browns stadium will fill up. There will be a lot of Steelers fans there, but I don't think the Steelers minority will have as easy a time overwhelming the hometown fans as they did in Dallas. About an hour before kickoff, the Brownies will dry their cryin' eyes. When the game starts, they'll play sloppy and sorry but scrappy and desperate. The Steelers better be ready. There's nothing more dangerous than a desperate opponent. If anything can salvage the Brownies' season right now, it's a big upset win over the Steelers. We all know better than to take any of the division games for granted and this week, I hope Coach Cowher can persuade the team to take these guys seriously. Every division win is huge and we need them all if we expect to send Baltimore home early or to a first-round wild-card playoff game.

P.S. The final numbers were Bones 7-7, Scoop and Rowdy 6-8, and in best bets, Bones 3-2, Scoop 2-2, and Rowdy 3-3.

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