Move Josh Fogg to the bullpen

This coming Thursday, Josh Fogg will have another chance to prove that he still belongs in the rotation. Sean Burnett and John Van Benschoten surprised a lot of people by looking so ready in March. If Fogg keeps scuffling and losing and taxing the bullpen more than his fair share (and thus encouraging more losing the next day), then it's time to call Nashville and start the process of finding the 2005 rotation.

Fogg's only making $342,000 this year, so don't think that he has a firm grip on a rotation spot or a special exemption from Mac's promise to only reward good performance with playing time. Fogg's performance has been below average on the whole since he was sidelined with a strained left oblique muscle last April and May.

Josh Fogg has a place on the next Pirates team to make the playoffs. A quick study of his three-year numbers suggests that place is in the bullpen. A move to the pen might be the surest way to dramatically improve the quality of his contribution. Fogg is just as effective with men on base as with the bases empty. He dominates for 45 pitches (OPS splits, pitches 1-15: 673; pitches 16-30: 586; pitches 31-45: 707). Then the clock strikes 12 with pitch 46, and he makes every batter look like Jeff Bagwell (pitches 46-60: OPS 897), Luis Gonzalez (pitches 61-75: OPS 937), Chipper Jones (pitches 76-90: OPS 922), and Albert Pujols (pitches 91-105: OPS 1150) as he stays in the game. Keep in mind these three-year numbers include his brief relief year (2001), his good year (2002), and his bad year (2003).

Fogg throws only 3.4 pitches per plate appearance, which is admirably efficient and in the Roy Halladay zone of the rankings. But he averages 15.0 pitches per inning, which is more Joe Roa/Danny Graves territory and miles from Halladay territory. Graves turns into a batting-practice arm at pitch 61. He's a four-inning starter. Fogg is three-inning starter (45 good pitches, 15 per inning, that's three innings folks.) Graves often has trouble in his first inning of work, and the numbers show that Graves is significantly less effective with runners on base. Fogg is never better than in his first inning of work, and the numbers show that Fogg is more or less the same pitcher with the bases empty or with runners on or with runners in scoring position.

Fogg's numbers to date suggest he would be a better reliever than Danny Graves. The Bucs should cut Brian Boehringer or Jason Boyd, promote Burnett, and give Fogg a sink-or-swim test in high-leverage relief. I'm sure he'll swim. What's the worst that could happen? If the Nashville starter scuffles in the bigs, demote him after five starts and bring up someone else. The Pirates are at least three starters deep at Nashville. And last I checked, Danny Graves was a pretty useful reliever.

We all want to win. Josh Fogg might be upset at first with this demotion. He'll get over that, I'd bet, when he sees how valuable he can be in the bullpen. The Reds are paying Danny Graves $6M to close this year. If Fogg excels as a right-handed setup man, he'll get his chance to close some day, and he's much more likely to land a huge payday contract as a dominant closer than he is as a three-inning starter.