Last we heard about Freddy Sanchez, he was on schedule for a rehab assignment at Nashville later this month.
Don't get too excited about Sanchez; our hopes lie not so much with him as they do with Craig Wilson, Tike Redman, Jason Bay, and the young starting pitchers. Sanchez has gotten a lot of hype since he came from Boston. Everything out of Boston gets a lot of hype these days. In the big picture, though, he's not a better prospect than Hill or Castillo. They are all about the same with different strengths and weaknesses. If you want to split hairs and bicker about age and size and comparables, go right ahead. Otherwise, I think you'll do OK regarding each of these guys as having something like a one-in-three chance for a respectable major-league career as a starter. They all have talent. Barring catastrophic failure at the plate, it's going to take 500 or 1000 at-bats to really know what they can do over the long haul. The Pirates appear to be committed to give all three young men plenty of opportunity, and once there is talent and opportunity there's nothing to do but wait and watch and see what happens on the field.
Here's a brief history of Sanchez. Going into Spring Training in 2003, the Red Sox nation was pretty high on him, mainly because he had a high (.319) batting average in his three years in the minors. He was an 11th-round pick in 2000 from Oklahoma City University. Since he played in college, he's on the older end of the prospect spectrum (he's 26 this year). Though hyped, his reputation was as a "good little offensive player," as Grady Little called him, and his upside was compared to David Eckstein's. He's listed at 5'11" and 180 pounds. Sanchez is not as small as Eckstein (5' 8" 165), so note the pre-2003 hype was pretty tempered by such descriptions.
The Red Sox went out and signed Todd Walker to start at 2B. With the first cut last March, Sanchez was sent to AAA Pawtucket after playing there half of the previous season. Sanchez was too much for AAA pitching and hit .384, leading the International League, before being recalled to Boston at the end of May. He hit .235 in 20 games and was sent back to Pawtucket to await a trade. The Bucs got him in the Suppan deal that also sent the mysteriously-injured Brandon Lyon back to Boston. At that time, Littlefield described him as a potential top-of-the-lineup middle infielder, someone who could get on base and play second or third.
His rehab assignment at Nashville should be short since he has nothing to prove at the AAA level. The high batting average at AAA doesn't mean a whole lot: Endy Chavez hit .343 down there. It's probably safe to view Chavez's big-league record as something like a below-average expectation for Sanchez, who lacks Chavez's blazing speed but has a better hitting eye and a wee bit more power.
I doubt anyone knows what the Pirates will do to make room for Sanchez when he's ready on May 1 or so. A lot of factors will influence the decision: the Pirates' win-loss record, Chris Stynes' hitting performance, the health of Hill and Castillo and Jack Wilson, the uniforms on Benson, Kendall, and other players the Pirates might trade. I'd guess that if Sanchez were ready today he'd take Stynes' place or Nunez's place. Nunez is a switch-hitter and Mac is fond of playing lefty/righty matchups, so the fact that Sanchez is another right-handed hitter may play into whatever final decision the Bucs make. And yes, Sanchez has played some third base in the minors, so the Pirates could use him there. Obviously we'll know if that is in the plans soon since Sanchez will show up in the Nashville box scores at some position. Playing him at third would allow the Pirates to get two of the three middle infield prospects into the lineup every day. They could also score big points with the fans by parting ways with Stynes. Stynes is worth keeping, but if he's hitting .200 two weeks from now, cutting Stynes would underline the youth movement and probably garner some positive attention from the hard-to-please national media.
The worst-case scenario for Sanchez would be the same as the worst-case scenario for all prospects: think Brandon Larson 2003. A realistic expectation for Sanchez might be something like a .330 OBP with a slugging percentage of .375. He won't hit many home runs but he should leg out some doubles. Batting averages fluctuate like ERA so it's foolish to predict a number. Say he might do something like .330/.375 with a BA in the .240 to .270 range. Nate Silver's PECOTA system (we lean on it, and think you should, too) sees something like that with a .305 / .375 / .450 best-case scenario and maybe a ten percent chance of seeing that happen. One of the noteworthy comps the system finds is Aaron Boone and his .280 / .330 / .445 numbers from 1999. After Boone, PECOTA finds a bunch of mid-century utility players and Doug Flynn.
To be sure, one in ten is a great lottery ticket, and getting steady 800 or 825 OPS from a third base would be a rainstorm in the drought right now. Sanchez is certainly worth the gamble. There's no way Nunez has the same chance of putting up such numbers (though Mackowiak might). Sanchez's limited upside - he's no Jose Reyes, J.J. Hardy, or Bobby Crosby - is offset by the fact that he's a surer bet to contribute right away. Add that to the corner outfield / first-base offense the Bucs should have going into 2005, and build all of this around a young, durable, above-average, deep, and pre-arbitration starting rotation, and the Bucs just might have a playoff-caliber team, built on the cheap, in 2005 and 2006.
