Tuesday, April 13, 2004

Bucco OBP not woeful

The good Brian O'Neill calls for more getting on base in his new Stats Geek column. He's right. The more we get on, the merrier we'll be.

For years, it has been de rigeur to excoriate the Pirates for neglecting the value of on-base percentage. This line of attack continues with self-perpetuating energy. Hey, they did re-sign Randall Simon.

Yet the facts suggest the Pirates are now one of the better NL clubs in the OBP department. This morning, the Bucs as a team are hitting .294 / .362 / .450. If they do that all year, they will score 900 runs.

Jack Wilson deserves a shot in the two hole. He has a ton of big-league experience for his age and he's in the prime of his breakout period. Why not court the breakout? He'll get more at-bats batting second. It's wise to put him there and hope for the best.

Sure, he's not walking right now. His only walk this season came off Jimmy Haynes, and like yesterday's walks by Andy Pratt, they shouldn't count as evidence of difficult patience. But hell, he's hitting .414. It's not right to expect a .414 hitter to be drawing walks. When Nap Lajoie hit .426 in 1901, he drew only 24 walks in 550 at-bats. The high batting average suggests that Wilson is reaping the benefit of patience: he is getting pitches to hit and hitting them hard and far. He can't pick up the walking pace until pitchers stop feeding him juicy strikes. (OK, granted, George Brett drew 58 walks in 450 at-bats when he hit .390, but let's not get carried away with high expectations.)

Tike Redman is off to a slow start. His OBP sits at .226. A player with six hits and one walk in 28 at-bats has been impatient, no doubt, or unlucky at best. Either way, he needs to be calm at the plate, lay off the junk, and hit the hittable pitches. OBP is part of Tike's game so I suspect this is nothing but a slow start. Yesterday, he went one-for-three with his first walk (the only one Wuertz has issued this season, so it counts.). That's good. Maybe he's pressing. Still, it's nothing to worry about after seven games.

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