Sunday, April 11, 2004

Craig Wilson in the lineup

Again Mac has Craig A. Wilson in the sixth spot behind a weaker hitter. Is he trying to use Wilson as protection, to jump-start Mackowiak (today), Stynes (yesterday), and Simon (Friday)? Someone should ask him why Craig A. Wilson so often hits behind weaker hitters.

True or False: Whatever protection Wilson provides for these guys is offset by Wilson's reduced RBI chances and reduced plate appearances.

...perhaps this essay by Tom Ruane could help. It shows that, in the NL, the #6 hitter bats with the bases empty 54.6% of the time and with a runner in scoring position 27.5% of the time. The #5 hitter bats with the bases empty 53.3% and with runners in scoring position 29.4% of the time. The #4 hitter bats with the bases empty 50.2% and with runners in scoring position 31.2%. Significant differences?

One more thing to consider. According to Wilson's three-year splits, over the last three seasons Wilson hit .281 / .358 / .511 in 450 at-bats with the bases empty and .261 / .371 / .495 in 225 at-bats with runners in scoring position.

For what it's worth: over the last three years, here are Mondesi's numbers. With the bases empty: .272 / .350 / .487 in 850 at-bats. With runner(s) in scoring position: .218 / .301 / .405 in 500 at-bats.

And Raul Mondesi just smoked an RBI double with a RISP and the Pirates take the lead 2-1.

And Rob Mackowiak followed this by tomahawking a line-drive two-run homer. Sweet.

...Monday update ... OK, inserting Simon or Mackowiak between Mondesi and Wilson makes a righty-lefty-righty pattern. Anyone know of studies that suggest this significantly helps a team score more runs?

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