Craig Wilson

Consider:

Doumit was playing first base for the second time in his professional career. Actually, in his life.

I'd rather see this than Jose H. start at 1B, but just what exactly is the plan for Craig Wilson? And what the hell did he do to deserve such lowly treatment? Despite his $3.5 million contract, he's been relegated to bench duties since Furnitz was brought in to stink up the joint. The Bucs either trade Craig to a contender who wants him this year, or flush the 3.5 million down the john. Pinch-hitting Jose H. for Craig isn't exactly showcasing Craig's talent. Neither is benching him for a guy with a sore hammy who's played one game at first in his life.

Porter to have knee surgery today

Crazy Joey Porter will have one of his knees operated on today.

In other Steelers news, fourth-round pick OT Willie Colon became the second rookie in the draft to sign. Colon (pronounced "cologne") signed a three year deal for 1.3 million and will likely back up Starks at RT. All hail Willie Colon!

DK chat

If you've run out of sharp utensils to jab into your head, DK's depressing chat is for you. DK thinks we should bank on Craig and Freddy returning to the bench when Casey and Randa return, has heard no hint that the Bucs might be for sale, and thinks that the Bucs will draft another pitcher in the first round of the upcoming draft.

Game 46: Pirates at Diamondbacks

Victor Santos vs. Claudio Vargas at 9:40 PM EST. Santos looks to bring down his career 12.79 ERA, 3.16 WHIP, and .455 BAA (!) vs. Arizona. Ryan Doumit is playing first as Craig gets the night off.

Losing poll

The 14-31 Pirates have lost so many games this year because:

A. An evil conspiracy. The owners want to minimize Net Local Revenue by maximizing losing, ensuring a nice fat Central Fund Component handout under the current basic agreement. Tracy, Jose Hernandez, and Burnitz are all in on the scam.

B. Jim Tracy has a man-crush on Jose Hernandez.

C. Jim Tracy is a fucking idiot (see sixth post).

D. Egregiously bad general management (See Billy's synopsis on the Smizik and Starkey anti-DL pieces).

E. Poor play by mostly bad players.

F. All of the above.

Duffy

DK has the scoop on the AWOL Chris Duffy: Duffy's decision to not report to Indy has been motivated by "a general unhappiness with playing the game much more than dissatisfaction with the team."

The stress from faltering in the early part of the season had taken a sharp toll on Duffy, the sources said, to the point that he had become tightly wound on and off the field and had questioned his desire to continue his career.

In stark contrast, one of the sources said, Duffy was describing relief bordering on joy shortly after deciding not to report to Class AAA Indianapolis when the Pirates optioned him there May 14.

I don't know what to make of this. Is Duffy mental? If so, would the Pirates deny his medical condition, only to admit months later that they were wrong? Anyway, good luck with everything, Chris.

Game 45: Pirates at Diamondbacks

Ollie and El Duque pit their matching 6.98 ERAs against each other at 9:40 EST tonight. The white-hot Burnitz is batting fifth in front of Craig Wilson. Jose Hernandez will start the game on the bench, but he'll be ready to come in and bunt with the game on the line, should Tracy feel so inclined. Jody Gerut, finally put on the DL, and Chris Duffy, back home in Phoenix, might watch the game on TV.

Bill Cowher Spittle Night

Jack Wilson atones for his recent out-of-line Respectfest with the humility that Dr. Rowdy prescribed. From ESPN's Gene Wojciechowski upon asking Jack Wilson who he'd choose to represent the Pirates at the All-Star Game on July 11:

"Right now, I wouldn't send anybody," he says. "None of us are doing that great of a job. None of us really deserve it. I don't think any of us deserve it."

(Thanks to Lonely Cousin for the Gene link, which is well worth the read for any Pirates and/or Steelers fan.)

Game 44: Pirates at Indians

Maholm and Byrd, this afternoon.

Remember the Grays

Loved the unis tonight. Can they wear them again tomorrow?

Game 43: Pirates at Indians

Snell and Johnson, seven o'clock. The Pirates are 13-29.

Game 42: Pirates at Indians

Down by three after one. Duke and Sabathia.

... wow, that was a 102-pitch, 77-strike complete game for Sabathia.

Professionals

Arroyo may be guilty of violating the "professional" code of conduct most ballplayers honor. But you know what, I don't care.

When did baseball players become "professional" in the sense that part of their job is maintaining the code of honor that distinguishes the nobility from the rabble? Jack Wilson sounds like he would challenge Bronson Arroyo to a duel, if that was still legal.

Ballplayers are not "professionals" in the old-fashioned sense of lawyers and clergymen. There is no long history of this. Baseball players are "pros" because they do something that other people do for fun. And get paid. Guys that get paid a little are "semi-pro" players.

I couldn't give a rat's ass about "professionalism" in a baseball context. I want the baseball team to win games.

I applaud Jack Wilson's outstanding dedication this off-season. I've always been a fan of Jack Wilson, and I've never said a bad word about his play. And of course I applaud the gentlemanly off-field behavior of players like Jack Wilson.

But that's not why I'm a fan. I do not follow the team because I hope the players will put on a tuxedo and give money to charity. Does anyone?

So I wonder: did Jack bust his ass this offseason because he wants to be a better player and win games? Or did he bust his ass this offesason because he is a "professional"? There's a huge difference, I think.

If Jack Wilson thinks of himself as a "professional" in the same sense that, say, a journalist might, then of course it's laudable that he's a student and a steward of the history and standards of his discipline. All hail respect for the game. But this only gets you into SABR. Get the journal, Jack. Go on eBay and collect memorabilia to donate to the Honus Wagner Museum.

We're not all into this way of appreciating the game. Thank god. Without some irrational, unprofessional passion, baseball would lose about 98% of its fan base.

So I'm not impressed with the professionalism angle on the Arroyo-Wilson war of words. Not at all. Arroyo may be a punk and a jackass, but he's a winner. And Jack Wilson may be a man of principle and integrity, but he's a loser. Duh -- look at the standings. And losers don't bitch to the fans about the way the winners part their hair, starch their shirts, or phrase their correspondence.

That's how I see it.

The season has gotten incredibly tiresome. I'm sure that, were players to read blogs, their attitude would probably be, "You're not having a good time, so why don't you find another hobby." Maybe I'll take that advice.

The Pirates are just not worth the attention these days.

Disrespectful

Joe Rutter goes long with the continuing Arroyo quotes:

"I felt like I was embarrassed to get behind 4-1 early in a game like that," said Arroyo, who joined the Reds in a spring training trade with the Boston Red Sox. "It's not a secret. They don't have a bunch of All-Stars in that lineup. They had seven righties up there, which is tailor-made for me. I was embarrassed to be beaten by those guys.

"That's not to say you can't be beat on any given day, but I thought it was a horse (crap) outing, especially against a team like that. I mean, they are one of the weakest teams in baseball. That's just the way it is. If I gave up four runs in six innings to the Yankees, I probably wouldn't be embarrassed, but I was."

Arroyo played for the Pirates from 2000-02. He said Wednesday he felt no pressure pitching in Pittsburgh for the first time since his departure.

"If I can't stand on the mound and feel comfortable against that lineup, then something's wrong with me," he said.

Jack Wilson:

"What he said was very disrespectful," shortstop Jack Wilson said. "When you're out on the field, you respect everything. You respect the game, you respect your players and you respect the other team's players. To come out and say that, especially against your former teammates, guys who've played with you, it's more disrespectful."

Shut up, Jack. Your team is 13-28. You don't open your mouth and talk like you deserve respect when you are 13-28.

People often accuse the Pirates' front office of acting like they can make a respectable living with 75-win teams. Now we see the players getting in on that act.

Pitches to hit

Kovacevic got to the bottom of the mysterious Jose-for-Craig switcheroo. Jose is "getting pitches to hit, but he's fouling them off," Tracy said.

. . . So, is Craig Wilson a drunk? Was he, like, not able to play today?

Did the Reds ever bench Wily Mo Pena against a lefty?

On Duffy

Rotoworld reports the Duffy story this way:

Duffy thinks the Pirates set him up for failure by changing his approach at the plate during spring training and then having him share time with Nate McLouth right from the start.

I feel for the kid; if that's how he sees the situation, he must have all kinds of problems.

I saw it the other way. He never looked qualified in spring, yet they kept giving him chances, and for whatever reason certain members of the broadcast crew were determined to report a glass that was a one-quarter full as one-quarter full of "a guy who plays the game right" - as if that would be enough to make him an eventual All-Star.

Duffy looked like the second coming of Tike Redman. Could he hit a hollow .300 and steal a bunch of bases over half a season? Sure. The odds of much better never looked great.

I don't know what all went on between Tracy and Duffy, but I never had any problem with Tracy adjusting Duffy's approach. It's not like Duffy was ever a great hitting prospect. I saw it more as, "Kid, if you want to be a big-leaguer, you can't totally suck."

What stunned me was not that it didn't work, but that they gave Duffy so many chances. And stacked the deck in his favor by starting his main competition, Nate McLouth, against all the pitchers most brutal for hitters like Duffy.

All this "I got your back," "You don't got my back," "I stand up for my guys," "You don't stand up for me" stuff is dysfunctional macho bullshit. Duffy is not justified calling out his coaches the same way that Tracy is not justified with his undying support statements for Jeromy Burnitz.

The team is fifteen games under .500 in mid-May. No one has any right to complain about playing time, and no one has any right to act like they know better. Every single one of those guys bears some responsibility for this disaster, and any one with a shred of honor will shut up and not complain if his ass is fired tomorrow.

They all deserve to have their major-league careers ended, tomorrow, the way I see it. Duffy shouldn't act like he deserves better. Tracy shouldn't act like he knows what he's doing.

Some humility is in order here, yes?

Fifteen games under

So they found a way to lose after that big lead.

I thought that lineup looked suspicious . . . .

Game 40: Reds at Pirates

Dave Williams and Victor Santos. Bautista in center, Jack Wilson at short, Sanchez at third, hitting one through three. Jose Hernandez at first base. He's been anemic against righties for years. And mediocre against lefties. But to sit Craig Wilson, a veritable lefty-masher, suggests that someone is shaving points. Who's making a fortune betting against the Pirates, and why does he have so much influence over Jim Tracy? Inquiring minds want to know.

...oh, maybe you start Jose Hernandez, let him do his good D in the first inning to help Santos escape and give the mates a chance to give him a lead. Then you pinch-hit for him, subbing in Craiggers, on Jose's first at-bat? That would be brilliant!

...Tracy is smarter than I thought! After Jason Bay's first-inning grand slam, we surely can afford a day of rest for Craig Wilson and a day of defense for Jose Hernandez. I didn't see it coming, so I apologize and retract my earlier remarks.

Game 39: Reds at Pirates

Ollie looks to keep his rotation spot vs. Bronson Arroyo. Bucs down 1-0 in the middle of the first. Ollie loaded the bases to start the game but escaped only giving up a run. The red-hot Jeromy Burnitz is hitting fifth again.

Joe Randa - what to do

Activate him and bench him. No more no less. Tracy should play the hot hand. Let Joe put on a pinch-hitting clinic. Bautista should get plenty of time at third, since he is the third baseman for next year. If/when he scuffles a bit, put Joe in there. If Joe breaks out of the gate like Barbaro, leave him in there.

The key to getting the most out of a roster like this is flexibility.

go all Huizenga

Good Q & A this week.

Pirates thump Reds

Nice box. Burnitz comes to life. Jose Bautista looks like a leadoff hitter - six walks to five strikeouts in 27 at-bats.

Game 38: Reds at Pirates

Aaron Harang and Paul Maholm. Seven o'clock.

All hail Craig Wilson

Apparently our Stats Geek has gotten some funding from the Works Progress Administration (WPA) to apply the new math. This was a good idea. The result is something like the adjust-stats-for-scoreboard fantasy that haunts my uh, moments of clarity. Read the whole thing and do not rely on my summary here.

Lately I've suspected that some of the players have done better than others in mop-up time. Just as you don't take seriously a running back's 100-yard second half when his team trailed by four touchdowns all the way, so I think we should not take seriously the whole bunch of basehits this guy or that guy collects when the team is down 8-0. Scuffy Moehler is throwing the ball right over the plate, aiming for bats.

Because I still remember Wilson's start to the 2005 season, I still have something of a grudge against him, and I would have guessed he's the one who has most padded his stats in garbage time. O contrair. He is in fact our most clutch guy. Sorry I doubted you, Craig. All hail Craig!

So who's been living high on the hit-this fastball? Freddy Sanchez. As Brian O'Neill writes:

The only WPA that shocked me was a negative 60 for Freddy Sanchez. He's hitting .319 with a .356 on-base average and .511 slugging average and he has done a good job cashing in limited RBI opportunities. But a scan of his games shows he has done most of his best work in early innings or blowouts such as Sunday's loss, when hits hardly move the odds needle. If Sanchez keeps hitting, his WPA should improve.

This WPA looks like an excellent stat. I will pay more attention to it.

The only thing that concerns me is that WPA appears to belittle the value of the early innings. Note how O'Neill writes "in early innings" like they don't "move the needle." Pshaw! No innings are more important. Teams that get a lead tend to keep the lead. Early scoring is the surest way to often winning.

Maybe the WPA can fund some more studies to clear up this flaw. I recommend they give the money to Brian O'Neill.

And all hail Freddy Sanchez for moving the needle in the early innings.

The higher you go up

Andrew McCutcheon in Pete Iorizzo's special to the PG:

"The pitching is more accurate than in the Gulf Coast League. Really, the higher you go up, I believe the easier it is to hit."

All hail the next hitter to blame his slump on the opposing pitchers. "I'm fine. If those pitchers will get the ball over the plate, I'll have three hits tomorrow."

Ryan Shealy

If the Rockies are ready to trade Ryan Shealy, the Pirates should get in on the bidding. Sean Casey, though great, has never had the health to suggest he's a long-term option for us at first base.

Exhibition games

Rather than a hall-of-fame game, I'd rather see the Pirates take on a lady's softball team, as they did in the old days.

The highlight of the [1899] camp for some was the exhibition played against the "Bloomer Girls," a barnstorming, all-female baseball club which had just arrived from a West Coast tour. In what was reportedly the first game between a National League ballclub and a team of women, the latter fared poorly, dropping the game by an estimated score of 47-14. The male fans were unusually well-prepared for the spectacle. According to one account, the "the bald heads in the audience used opera glasses to a man with deadly effect." (64)

That's Arthur D. Hittner again. Here Hittner describes another exhibition played in 1900:

With a five-day break in the schedule, the club prepared for a constumed "field day" exhibition on October 5. The program was modeled after the players' benefit staged in Louisville two years earlier. Like its predecessor, the show was "a howling success." Wagner appeared in traditional German garb puffing a long pipe. Fred Ely "played the ballet girl to perfection" and Rube Waddell was "in his element" as Uncle Sam. (82)

In the baseball game played in the middle of this field day, Wagner played shortstop for the first time in his career. Afterwards, he caught the greased pig and won the long-distance baseball throw contest by heaving one 388 feet.

If there's no greased pig at the Hall of Fame game, I'm not interested.

Too coachable

Chris Duffy chalks up his demotion to his being "too coachable." That's a good one.

Kevin McClatchy

McClatchy's comments to the Tribune-Review, especially the one about tuning out the criticism of not local people, got me thinking. The notion that the owner can ignore the wishes of non-local fans to better serve local fans - who are often the parents, friends, grandparents or siblings of non-local fans - is too absurd for analysis. He must regret that remark today.

Kevin McClatchy clearly feels the heat of criticism, but he probably does not experience it much first-hand. The rich live in a world of smiling servants and fawning employees. That's just a fact. Remember this story from the USA Today. No doubt McClatchy lives in one of those "Lake Wobegon worlds" where "every dinner or lunch partner," and all the various servants, are "above average in their deference."

Locally, I doubt he gets much else than sympathy. The valet parking boy, returning his keys, does not say, "On my blog, I predicted this Burnitz signing would be a disaster. Who's the moron who suggested it?" And no doubt most employees reassure him, daily, that it's mainly bad luck the Pirates have experienced.

So that would be the "local" world for him. And he concentrates on it now. His immediate circle tells him it's OK, it's not his fault. Maybe he cannot take the heat that he senses outside his bubble. That's lame. Complaints about civility and courtesy are always superficial and self-deluding, especially from men of high station. They fail to address the circumstances which have provoked otherwise good and reasonable people to intemperate language.

Note I'm just speculating. I have no idea what goes on in the world of Kevin McClatchy. Maybe the waitress in his favorite IHOP calls him, daily, a two-faced liar who embezzles the funds of season-ticket holders. I just don't know. But this is one way to make sense of otherwise unreasonable comments from him.

Drunk Monkeys

Rough day for Pirates fans. The Trib sniffs McClatchy's ass, the Bucs go down 8-0 after two en route to loss #27, Tracy-fave Mike Edwards is called up (not before Duffy complains about Tracy), and Charlie delivers a disturbing interview with a Dodgers blogger on Jim Tracy. Meanwhile, Burnitz snubs Breast Cancer awareness by shunning enjoyed his new pink bat. Happy freaking Mother's Day.

The only consolation I can suggest is ... Drunk Monkeys! "It was not unusual to see some of the monkeys stumble and fall, sway, and vomit."

McClatchy lies again

My two cents on today's stinkbomb from McClatchy:

First off, I'm pissed, as it sounds like that %#$* @!&% hasn't been reading my mail. Then there's this quote:

"My only thing with Mark is ... since I've been in sports, it doesn't matter if it's baseball or basketball, there's always been sort of a professional courtesy given to other owners. You all know that what you do is difficult, so you don't criticize each other."

That's funny. KM has forgotten about his rant to DK last winter:

"I think, as we go toward a new agreement, there's going to have to be some form of constraint because these guys can't control themselves," he said. "I know it sounds a little harsh, and I'm criticizing my other owners, but that's the way it is. I'm tired of other people affecting the marketplace and making it more challenging for small-market teams."

Or maybe he's just a bold-faced liar. Which would dampen any enthusiasm we should have over him saying "I don't think I'll own the team in 15 or 20 years".

Anyone know if there's any truth behind Smizik's rumor from last week that "Kevin McClatchy has hinted he might want to sell after the All-Star Game"?

Show me the courtesy

Kevin McClatchy speaks.

If you live out of town, you are not allowed to comment on this article. I don't care if drive up from DC three times a year to attend a game, purchase hats from pirates.com, or shell out several hundred a year to watch the team on satellite TV. You aren't part of the Pirate community, as far as McClatchy's concerned. So no comments, you hear?

The next time you want to complain about the team, you carpetbagging complainers, take a long look in the mirror and ask yourself: what kind of loser am I?

I swear, writing letters from Kansas City! You ought to be ashamed of yourself.

Game 37: Fish at Pirates

Ian Snell and game on.

Game 36: Fish at Pirates

Scott Olsen and Zach Duke, battling left-handers.

...meanwhile, you might enjoy this history of booing.

Unusual eloquence

A good eye distinguishes Arthur D. Hittner as a historian of the Wagner era. Page 42, quoting a report from September 1896:

Wagner's batting eye had returned, as evidenced by a two-homer outburst against Wilmington in Olympic Park. The latter blast, a seventh inning grand slam which broke open a tie game, was described with unusual eloquence in the local press:

Then Hannes stepped up to the plate, threw out his shoulders, clenched his teeth and waited. The first ball was satisfactory, and he drove it with mighty force in the direction of City Hall. He sprinted home, while the rooters turned insane with joy.

Hannes there is Honus, also known as Hans, also known as Hannes, also known as Johannes.

Game 35: Marlins at Pirates

Sergio Mitre and Victor Santos. The teams are pretty evenly matched. The Marlins lack much in the way of veteran stopgappery, however. So we should have an edge.

On slumping vets

Juan Encarnacion, Preston Wilson, and Juan Pierre, '05-'06 free-agent acquisitions, have all been terrible. Cliff Floyd, Jeff Kent, and Bernie Williams have been terrible as well.

Encarnacion (650 OPS) has been hitting sixth. Wilson (711 OPS) has been hitting fifth (and hitting better lately). Pierre (571 OPS) has been hitting third. Floyd (574 OPS) has recently hit second and eighth. Kent (690 OPS) hit fifth. Williams (633 OPS) hit sixth.

We're all focussed on Burnitz (584 OPS).

Google news retrieves some stories touching on some of these struggles. Juan Encarnacion has been described in the St. Louis press as a mild disappointment. Not many complaints are readily available about Preston Wilson, perhaps because the Astros are high above .500. Juan Pierre has drawn some criticism. Here's how Floyd's slumpiness has been covered. Williams has been throwing tantrums, but coverage of his ejection does not dwell on his year-to-date ineptitude at the plate.

Two things buy a veteran time with the fan base: (1) a winning tradition, and (2) a history with the club. The Pirates have no recent winning tradition, and none of the veteran stopgaps have a meaningful recent history with the club. (Joe Randa is no more "a Pirate" than Jose Hernandez.) Will all the fan resentment help Burnitz break out of his slump? I can't say, but I doubt it. And if it's true that vicious jeering hurts a player's performance, then the acquisition of veteran stopgaps is even more of a bad bargain for the Pirates. Veteran players are more likely to get it here than elsewhere.

Hines Ward

There's a long article about Hines Ward in Sports Illustrated. He comes across as one mean, selfish son-of-a-bitch.

Steeler fans have always loved Ward. We've been oblivious, I think, to all the egotistical whining about not getting respect which appears to consistently simmer beneath his surface. He's been the ideal running-game wideout. His intense jealousy of, and perceived disrespect from, the Edwards and Burress signings are totally childish. So is his disrespect for Cowher.

Few fans, I'd guess, care much about the individual context. We love Ward because he beautifully exemplifies the kind of "Steeler football" we want to see year after year.

I find this disappointing because here I thought Ward had figured out what "Steeler football" can be, and here I thought he had just gone out and done what was best for the team. Like he was "one of us." Now it seems like he lucked into his opportunity to be a Hall-of-Fame caliber player. Does he really think the team would have been better off with a gameplan that regarded him as a Randy Moss?

The front office could not have handled him better, if we judge by the results that have come from Hines being Hines in the opportunities he has had. If he's too selfish to realize that, fine. More power to him.

I'll be happy to "disrespect him" if he'll get his revenge on the field.

... let me add, I'm not saying he's a bad person. He comes across, however, as a troubled kid, as yet another one of these great athletes who appear to derive their motivation from a combination of intense self-centeredness (i.e., egotism) and a desire to revenge what they regard as an endless series of personal attacks.

Tracy apologizes

(Well, not yet. But if he did, maybe it'd sound like this...)

Ladies and gentleman, people of Pittsburgh, and Pirates fans around the world. I'd like to humbly apologize for my jackassery over the past several days.

Firstly, my asinine decision to bench our team leader in OPS, HRs, and RBIs in favor of Jose Hernandez at 1B vs. a RHP was very intriguing, as Jose Hernandez has a .150/.209/225 line this year and a .219/.290/.296 line vs. RHP the last three years. Furthermore, Dejan has brought it to my attention that Craig actually has a .996 fielding percentage at 1B this year, while Jose doesn't naturally play 1B, thus undermining my statement that this move was done to "upgrade defensively".

Secondly, upon further reflection I've realized that the torrent of horseshit that flowed out of my mouth yesterday made absolutely no sense whatsoever. Very perplexing. Some think that our Best Hitter should hit 3rd, guaranteeing that he gets more plate appearances. Instead, my attempt to insert Burnitz's methodical beatdown .584 OPS in the five-hole in front of Bay requires explanation. As I've said before, "Effort is not an option", "You get 27 outs and every single one of them is precious. The point is to maximize the efficiency of each and every out." and "Do I advocate that you go up to the plate looking to walk? No." Jeromy epitomizes all of these maxims. Whether it's effortlessly trotting out a groundout with the game on the line, efficiently making the maximal number of precious outs, or never looking to walk, Jeromy has brought home the bacon.

So what can I say in my defense? The evil Mr. Nutting has implanted an explosive charge in my head. Continuous losing ensures minimal Net Local Revenue, which ensures maximal revenue sharing.

Anyway, I'm sorry, you plethora of disconsolate Pirates fans.

Tracy sings the blues

Alan Robinson reports on what sounds like a Lloyd McClendon moment for the manager.

"I've got two guys with bad legs, so don't ask me any more questions about how long I'm going to go with this guy or that guy and make it seem like I have a plethora of choices here," Tracy said Thursday, his voice rising during a meeting with reporters. "We're trying to make this group go as best we can. You don't have a multitude of options."

I would say that Bay should hit third, period, to get more at-bats in the early innings while our young starters might still be in the game. But yesterday's trio started 6 for 6 at the top of the lineup, and all I care about is the early innings, so I would run them out there again and see what happens.

Robinson also reports:

The 10-25 record is not the worst in club history after 35 games _ the 1952 Pirates were 6-29 en route to going 42-112, the worst record in club history. But each of the last four Pirates teams to lose 100 or more games, those of 1953, 1954, 1985 and 2001, had better records after 35 games.

They won't lose 100 games this year, I'm pretty sure. They aren't that bad. I expect some hot runs, some 12 of 15 passages, will make up some ground. Teams will ease off, and the Bucs will catch them by surprise. Like last year, the year before, etc. They could lose 90, though. They often look like a 90-loss team out there.

As for Tracy vs. McClendon: Tracy has not impressed. I gave up on Joe Liggins last year, when it was clear everyone had given up on him. Would the Pirates have a better record now, had they kept him? I don't know, but it seems pretty unlikely any re-run of the season would produce fewer losses.

...by "McClendon moment," I don't mean the agitation. Mac never got nervous; he got angry. Or so it seems from the newspaper quotes. There's no indication in any of the stories quoting today's speech that Tracy swore like a sailor, up and down, forward and backward. I definitely miss that. If you are going to go out like this - 10 and 25 - you might as well swear yourself silly in the press conferences.

The McClendon moment is the "I got no other options" line. Tracy's quotes remind me of Mac defending Tike in the three-hole. He has lots of other options, of course. Burnitz in center, for example, batting eighth.

Game 36: D'Backs at Pirates

Juan Cruz - remember that guy? the kid Dusty Baker hated on - and Oliver Perez. Day game. 12:35pm start, uh, weather permitting.

Makes me think of the day I hung out at Wrigley field through a six-hour rain delay. There's not a whole lot to do in Wrigley field during a six-hour rain delay.

Dazzy Vance

Did Steve Treder ever fact-check Arthur D. Hittner's Honus Wagner? Great book, regardless.

March, 1915:

Although he sparkled at bat (he hit nearly .400 at Hot Springs), Wagner endured a particularly embarassing moment on the basepaths. With his team behind, Wagner took a lead off first base in the ninth inning of an intrasquad game. A hard-throwing rookie pitcher fired to first five or six times to hold the veteran close. The hurled then snapped another throw to first, catching the old man flat-footed. Few could recall Wagner suffering such an indignity, much less at the hands of a mere rookie. The pitcher, as it turned out, was future Hall-of-Famer Dazzy Vance. (224)

Dazzy did that in an intrasquad game. Weeks later, the Pirates sold Vance to the Yankees. Not sure why, but I think there was something about ownership needing to make debt payments and a new GM unable or unwilling to shout down their orders.

Use it or lose it

Kovacevic reports that tonight could be Ollie's last start.

Game 35: D'backs at Pirates

Brandon Webb and Paul Maholm. I believe Maholm started and ended an inning with a lead three times this season. I think he's also blown some leads.

Here's to hoping Tracy stacks the top of the lineup with our best hitters. I want to see if Maholm can pitch well with a lead, even a small one. The Pirates have to score in the first if they want lots of useful data about Maholm's ability to pitch for a winning ballclub.

Snell protects lead

Big news: Ian Snell had a lead, and he kept it, for many innings.

The Bucs took a 1-0 lead in the first. Paulino made it 2-0 in the second. Snell pitched six innings - the second through the seventh - and he protected that lead.

The only other time Snell pitched with a lead was in his first win, on April 28. The Bucs gave him a one-run lead for the top of the seventh. And he blew it. Fortunately, they scored two in the bottom of the inning while he was the pitcher of record. That's how he won that game.

I consider this lead-protection a small but real step toward Snell winning ten, fifteen, or even twenty games for us. You can't win games if you can't preserve a lead.

Hats off for Ian Snell!

I'm still waiting for Ollie to protect a lead this season. In all his starts this year, he has yet to pitch with a lead. Unfortunately, this is not so much a story about run support.

Game 34: D'Backs at Pirates

Ian Snell and Miguel "the Poet" Batista.

New lineup tonight: Bautista 3B, McLouth CF, Sanchez SS, Bay LF, Burnitz RF, Wilson 1B, Paulino C, Castillo 2B. Will be intersting to see if that trio can do anything with their at-bats in the first and third/fourth. Also I'm curious to see if Snell can go an inning or two without giving up a run.

It's become a season of three-inning games for me.

Brian O'Neill

The man's on fire. Maybe it's the fifth of rum. Or maybe not.

I don't fault the Bucs so much for signing old guys as I fault them for playing them when they don't perform. If you aren't prepared to bench an old guy because he's slow and ineffective, you should not have signed him in the first place.

Swiss Ben

For temporary distraction from the unbridled misery that is the Pirates, be sure to read up on Big Ben's trip to Switzerland. What is joy, if not Big Ben petting a two-day-old spotted calf? Is it just me, or did anyone else suspect these four pictures are presented out-of-order, i.e. that the heavy-jowled Ben in front of the clock in pic#2 has just devoured a two-day-old spotted calf, a bigass wheel of cheese, and the scrawny arm of a tiny Swiss American Football player? Anyway, all hail the Roethlisbergers!

Same old Pirates

Bob Smizik's assessment of the team's situation looks about right.

Whoa

Jack's comment in Kovacevic's notebook sounds like a good reason to disable him. He's signed for so many more years, and hamstring injuries can become chronic. How about Bautista 3B, Freddy SS, Bay LF, Wilson 1B, Burnitz RF, Castillo 2B, Paulino C, Duffy CF for the next week?

Games 33: Pirates at Nats

If the Pirates are true to recent form, they will make recent A-ball pitcher Mike O'Connor look like Zach Duke. Come sleepy. Game at one.

I think I can find something better to do. Maybe I will put on my old football uniform and stand around the yard, posing for pictures.

Momentum

According to the Tribune-Review, the 9-23 Pirates have momentum.

Rob Rossi does not use the word, and I know most reporters do not write their own headlines, so I will cut him some slack for the somewhat premature declaration.

Bob Friend

Article by Bob Barrickman for Perrotto's paper.

We don't need Jeromy Burnitz

Tracy, as reported by DK:

Asked why he would not use Doumit in right field, a position he has played previously, and supplant Jeromy Burnitz, who was batting .198, Tracy replied: "We need Jeromy Burnitz. We need him to do offensive things, and the only way to get that is to keep sending him out there."

Not-uh. See Oliver Perez post, below.

Game 32: Pirates at Nats

The Bucs have won 8 games, and they have lost 23 games.

...update (Bones): Ramon Ortiz vs. Victor Santos. Doumit playing 1B. Bucs down 2-0 after one.

Barbaro!

All hail the undefeated horse! Start the Triple Crown talk.

the Derby

Not so much hype this year for the Kentucky Derby. The Derby may be the best excuse - as if you'd need one - to start your day with a mint julep. Or middle your day. Or end your day.

I'm on Sweetnorthernsaint, the Kent Desormeaux horse, and Cause to Believe, the dog with the pink colors. I don't know shit about the horses this year, but I have been betting on Kent Desormeaux since the late 80s.

... just heard "My Old Kentucky Home" from the University of Louisville band. Derby on!

We don't need Oliver Perez

Jim Tracy tells Dejan Kovacevic in this morning's paper:

"We need Oliver Perez. We need him to be a good pitcher for us. I'm not going to sit here and suggest he has his head in a guillotine. We need to get him straightened out."

When Littlefield took over the job, he used to talk about "flexibility" and the need for the team to adapt as plans fail. Now it's all about, "We can only win if our #1 starter is left-handed and throws 95. We can only win if our clean-up hitter is a left-handed power hitter who can get the ball into PNC's short porch. We can only win if our leadoff hitter is Omar Moreno Jr. We can only win if Mike Gonzalez develops into Eric Gagne. We can only win with good infield defense."

They have been too wedded to a plan with too many details. Enough with the ultimatums, and go back, I say, to the emphasis on flexibility. Maybe the Pirates can only win the 2006 World Series if Oliver Perez becomes Randy Johnson. I can understand looking at the team this way in January or February. You place your bets, you go for broke, whatever. But guess what: it's May. The team has yet to win its tenth game. And Oliver Perez did not become Randy Johnson. Time to scrap the inflexible thinking and more freely shuffle the deck. Why does Oliver Perez deserve such special treatment? It's demoralizing and dysfunctional to keep talking like he's the future of the team.

Right now, the Bucs must find five or six starters worth building around. Oliver Perez looks like he couldn't get outs at AAA. Time to demote him and move on. Don't make a big deal about it; just do it. The train has to leave the station at some point. Hasta luego, Ollie.

Cosmetic changes

"What's happened is just unacceptable ... (the signings of veteran free agents) hasn't been working," Glass said. "Cosmetic changes don't help. We're going to have to figure out how to change the direction the team has gone this year. We've got to do something more significant than cosmetic changes."

Ouch. Although I wonder why he cares so much about the Bucs, I appreciate Glass taking the time to lambaste DL and the Pirates. I'd just hate to hear him rant about his sorry Royals.

Game 31: Pirates at Nationals

Zachary Day and Ollie doesn't bumaye.

... nice lineup tonight, at least. I wonder if Freddy can get on base in the first and third for us.

What next for Oliver Perez? Another dozen starts? Demotion? Bullpen?

Doumit at first

I still say the Pirates' top priority has to be sorting the starters into guys we keep and build around, guys we keep for now, guys we trade, and guys we move to the bullpen. So all hail Ronny Paulino as the starting catcher. If Doumit's lousy game-calling has anything to do with some struggles, the Bucs need to eliminate that variable from the equation. Play him at first, sure. Even if Burnitz starts having a great season, he still needs regular rest.

The Duffy in leadoff experiment continues to be a counterproductive failure. If our rotation was full of known quantities - veterans of predictable performance - then I could see how this would be a priority. Right now, it's counterproductive. You can't begin the game with an automatic out. It reduces your chance of scoring in the first, and it reduces your chance of getting an early lead. And we always want an early lead if we are bent on evaluating young starters.

Duffy is an out machine. In his last 50 PAs, he has 12 Ks and a .291 OBP. Stop the madness. Bat him eighth. Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez should bat one and two, or two and one.

If Tracy tries to do too much, he risks doing nothing.

Game 30: Pirates at Mets

Maholm and Glavine at seven eastern.

Game 29: Pirates at Mets

The Bucs remain mind-numbingly, improbably bad, with an 8-20 record. If they can go 22-10 in the next 32, they match last year's accomplishment of 30-30 after 60.

I like seeing the Pirates play the Mets because historically, I think, we always whup up on the Mets, even when we are bad and they are good. That's how I remember it at least. We have Ian Snell; they have Pedro Martinez. Seven o'clock eastern. If the Pirates trail after one inning, I turn the game off.

This is a good defense mechanism for Pirates fans to have. 75% or more of the games in which they trail after one go badly in the next eight innings. Discretion is the better part of valor. The fan who runs, lives to cheer another day. The fan who punishes himself, soon finds a new hobby.

Honus and Me

So why does a play about Wagner have to be family fare?

It is 1917. The team's record is 9-19, and they are in New York to face the Giants. 43-year-old Honus now mans first base. He no longer threatens pitchers, and he's surrounded with a cast of inept kids. The team's top slugger, Will Fischer, finishes the year with 3 home runs and a .376 SLG. The Pirates are headed toward a 51-103 season.

The curtain rises to reveal a group of angry fans gathered in a saloon. One fan reads aloud the astoundingly bad news about the Pirates from the newspaper. The others swear a lot. The bartender is very, very busy.

I don't know where we go with it, but it's ugly.

Question

In light of details such as those leading the Q & A, is it possible that our players are throwing these games as part of a league-wide conspiracy to force the owners to sell?

Contrary to the opinion of Bones, I don't believe our players are that much less talented than those on most of the other teams around the league. Yet they have an abysmally low winning percentage. Bad luck alone cannot explain this. It's as if they are shaving points.

Anyone else suspect some player anger with our owners has more than a little to do with their embarrassing performance on the field?

I'm not saying I am convinced this is the case. Far from it. But I do wonder if there wasn't something funny going on in the locker room during the first few weeks of April.

...forgot to mention the other data points that made me suspect the players were out to embarrass the owners: Ty Wigginton and Chris Shelton.

Maybe I just have to come over to the side that says our players are that much worse and ungifted genetically.

Game 28: Pirates at Cubs

The Bucs posted a lead for Zach Duke, and he's rode that thing into the seventh. Pirates 8, Cubs 0, in the bottom of the seventh.

... Holy cow, Zach Duke: 77 pitches in seven innings. He . . . could . . . go . . . all . . . the . . . way.

Get these young pitchers a lead, and good things happen. Duke has only one K, so we know he's putting the ball where they can hit it -- a little bit. Freddy Sanchez looks like a pro hitting third. Chris Duffy has gone 1-for-4 but, most important, he got on and scored in the first inning. He can go 1-for-6 as the leadoff guy, for all I care, provided he gets that first hit in the first inning. Right now we need early leads more than anything.

Clemente: The Passion and Grace of Baseball's Last Hero

On Sunday, I picked up a copy of David Maraniss's new book. I have not read a word of it yet. But I will say, it is a beautiful book. They even got the color of the cloth right.

Game 27: Pirates at Cubs

You are sitting in Wrigley field, listening to Victor Santos and Sean Marshall warming up. Thanks to your new second eyepatch, you can't see a damn thing. It is pitch black. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

NFL draft, Day 2

All hail more new Steelers:

Rd. 4:
Willie Colon, G, Hofstra, "top sleeper"
Orien Harris, DT, Miami (FL), "quick and powerful", looks real mean
Rd. 5:
Omar Jacobs, QB, Bowling Green, "cannon for an arm"
Charles Davis, TE, Purdue, "natural athlete" and "huge target"
Rd. 6:
Marvin Philip, C, Cal, "agile...powerful drive blocker"
Rd. 7:
Cedric Humes, TB, Virginia Tech, "honest runner", "big upside as a power back. Has a powerful frame to run over tacklers while taking no prisoners once he squares his shoulders. He runs with a crouched style, getting full use of his fine lower-body strength to move the pile and gain the tough yardage."

Great draft. Cowher and Colbert were grinning ear-to-ear yesterday, and are likely even more proud of themselves now. Do you think Colbert and DL have ever had a conversation? If so, what would they say to each other?

Game 26: Phillies at Pirates

Gavin Floyd vs. Ollie. Bucs are down 4-0 after 2 1/2. Ollie is getting hit hard.

NFL Draft, Day 1

All hail the new Steelers:

Rd. 1: Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St.
Rd. 3: Anthony Smith, S, Syracuse
Rd. 3: Willie Reid, WR, Florida St.

Hats off to Kevin Colbert and Cowher for pulling off the unlikely. Starting with the 32nd pick, they somehow managed to trade up to get the top WR in the draft who was projected by most to go in the top 15 picks. Brilliant as usual.

At first, I was a little confused over Smith and Reid. The Steelers had Smith as the fourth-best S, in front of Ko Simpson and Darnell Bing. Knocks on these other guys include Bing being a poor tackler and Ko being old. I trust Colbert and Cowher's judgement for whatever reason. Reid looks fast and skilled, with the only knock I've seen against him so far is that he's smallish. I'm guessing that usually Reid will return punts and Holmes will return kickoffs.

Six picks left in rounds 4-7. What do we need? RB, C, DE, more OL and DBs? A third string QB? Maybe not, as Tim Couch worked out Thursday in Pittsburgh (via Ryan).

Game 25: Phillies at Pirates

Lidle vs. Maholm. Scoreless after one. First time Paul pitched a scoreless first inning in four starts. We will ... pay more attention to the Steelers' round two pick coming up soon.

Update: Steelers trade round 2(64th) pick to Minnesota for two third round picks (83rd and 95th). Pirates lead 3-1 after 5 1/2. Maholm pitching well.

NFL Draft thread

Houston took the DE, which is smart I think, and the Saints are on the clock. I'll tune in again in several hours, when it's about time for the Steelers to take the league to school.

. . . Steelers trade up to get their choice for the #1 WR in the draft. Since the competition was a Florida player, I'm psyched this guy is Ohio State. Did the league zig and the Steelers zag? Without knowing much of anything about the players, it looks like a smart play.

The Steelers are good at the draft, so odds are they will find players without their #3 and #4. With the extra picks, they will have plenty of chances, too. Quality matters as much as quantity, but we will have a better idea of their ability to find overlooked gems come September. Time will tell if this was a good play or just a good-looking play. For now, then, Welcome Santonio Holmes.

...Anthony Smith (FS) sounds like a project. Others will call him a reach. They did well with Ike Taylor . . .

Game 24: Phillies and Pirates

Brett Myers and Ian Snell.

Joe Table vs. Omar Vizquel

Bones and I have long been looking forward to this matchup. I missed it when it happened; I'm sorry I had to read about it so many days later.

Last year, McClendon wisely kept Joe away from Omar in the only six games the Bucs and Giants enjoyed together.

The NFL Draft

Sinorice Moss would be a wasted first-round choice, given that guys like Az Hakim and Tim Dwight are almost always available. Little speedy guys have their place in the NFL, and the Steelers could probably use one. But it's a waste of a first-round pick. Or even a second-round pick.

With the early picks, I'd like to see them get some people for the offensive line. With their six picks in the first four rounds, I also expect the Steelers will clean up and bring home a good haul of good players.

Horribly bad

Some counterpoints and conclusions:

1. All baseball players are not genetically predispositioned and environmentally adapted equally. Some have skills, and are good. Some have few skills, and are very, very bad. The probability of a baseball team playing .500 is a function of the collective skills of the team. For a team made up of mostly bad players, it is hard to play .500 baseball. For a team of mostly good players, it is not hard.

2. The Pirates do not have many good players. Thus, because of (1), their poor play is likely more a result of bad players, than of these bad players feigning injuries or slacking.

3. Because I believe (2), I put the burden of the blame for overall poor play on the front office, which has fielded said bad team.

4. For a bunch of mostly bad players to achieve a .217 winning percentage through 23 games is truly remarkable and almost unprecedented. For stooping to this abysmal nadir, the players, coaches, GM, and owners should all be held accountable. The owners, GM, and coaches should be mercilessly flogged in public.

5. The general conduct and decision-making of the owners and GM has been, overall, egregiously incompetent.

6. We could afford more good players if we canned three people and anointed Bob Walk as coach/pitching coach/GM.

Horribly broken

Some points and conclusions:

1. It’s not hard to play .500 baseball. Any team can do it most any year.

2. It is easy to play .450 baseball. Any group of malingering slackers can do it. It is difficult to play .550 baseball.

3. Because I believe (1), I am inclined to always believe the Pirates are poised for a .500 season. For this I am often mistaken for a pollyanna booster. I’m OK with that. Part of me wants to be one anyway.

4. Because I believe (1), I will not be heartily impressed when they do play .500 baseball. I have not had much opportunity to express such admirable skepticism on this blog.

5. All performance must be considered (or “translated” as statheads say) in the context of the scoreboard. For example, it is easier to pitch well when your team has a lead. It is harder to pitch well when your team is behind. It is easier to hit a home run when you’re team is down 8-0. It is harder to hit a home run when the score is tied. Another example: it is easier to win five of ten if you begin those ten games, twelve games under .500. It is harder to win five of ten if you begin those ten games, twelve games over .500. In baseball, managers shuffle players in and out of the lineup, saving their best for the best. If the Astros are in first, why should they care much if they lose to the Pirates? We are not a division rival; we are a division patsy. Our win does not hurt them twice, since we are in no position to threaten them for first place. On the other hand, if the Cardinals are in second, the first-place Astros should naturally regard a series with St. Louis as exactly twice as important as that series with last-place Pittsburgh.

6. Because I believe (5), I put little stock in excellent individual performances or outstanding winning periods if done in the context of twelve games under .500. So what if they win, say, nine of the next twelve? They are still hopelessly buried underground. They’d move from twelve games under to six games under. Individually, the wins might be enjoyable. But they are not much evidence that the team is competitive or offers hope for the future. Let them start at .500, and then let’s see them win nine of twelve.

7. Because I believe (6), the middle of the season only matters much if the start of the season went well. If the Pirates fall twelve games under in April, the season is more or less over for me, as a fan of continuous interest, except as a point of humor or a comfort of habit. It’s over unless, of course, they somehow improve their record to .500. Until they are beating teams that fear them and start all their best players against them, the wins don’t mean so much.

8. The start of 2005 was a tremendous disappointment. They fought back to 30-30, and then they were destroyed. The start of 2006 has been even worse. In both Aprils, I thought they stood a good chance of playing .500 ball for at least a few months. See (1).

9. The general conduct and decision-making of the owners and GM has been, overall, passably competent. There was the Aramis Ramirez thing, but then there was the Jason Bay trade. The got rid of Chris Shelton at just the wrong time, and they got rid of Jason Kendall at just the right time. There have been bad signings. There have been good signings gone inexplicably bad. Is all that the fault of the owners and front office? Would another group have done better? I don’t think we know. Still, we have point (8). The appearance of passable competence does not jibe with the documentation of spectacular failure. I can only conclude that the situation is much worse than it appears, on the surface, to a fan who is inclined to believe that everyone is usually acting and decision-making in good faith.

To make a long story short, this 5-17, after 2005’s April, is more than bad luck. Something is horribly broken, and I can’t tell you what it is.

The season is more or less over for me. Right now, I’d rather listen to John Lee Hooker than Lanny and Greg and Bob and John.

But don’t worry. I’m not closing down the blog or anything like that. I know you would hate that. Bad enough the Pirates stink, but to lose Honest Wagner? Unthinkable!

You can expect fewer and less serious postings, however. And maybe a post or two about the Greatness that is John Lee Hooker. All hail John Lee Hooker! Right now he's singing:

Should have been gone
Long time, long time ago.
I hung around here
way too long, way too long.
Hold up my right hand
I swear I won't be back no more
Hold up my right hand
I swear I won't be back no more.
I should have been gone
Long time, long time ago.

Game 23: Pirates at Cardinals

In progress. Duke vs. Mulder. Duke made it over 8 minutes before giving up the obligatory first inning run. Cards 2, Bucs 0 after two.

What do you think of that?

Ron Cook writes about how some guy from Cuba wants to buy the team. You know what, this might be a good idea. Down there they get a lot more life out of their cars, and for the next so many years, we're more or less stuck with this junker.

Lick it up

"I didn't just crap my pants. I crapped my #1-Pirates-Fan-Pants! I know it doesn't spell 'pennant' or anything, but I'm willing to give it a shot. Yeah baby!"

Ack! As if the Pirates' Bad-News-Bears Act and the jackassery of Lanny, Blass, and Wehner weren't painful enough, we get spoonfed this recycled garbage again? If the Pirates' marketing dept. can come up with a two word motto, why can't PNC bank come up with one new 30 second ad? Maybe because they assume, like the front office, that we can be paid in puke, and then asked to lick it up?

Anyway, as Billy pointed out, it's time to axe the ad featuring the offseason moves. Let's also axe the "Rob Rossi thinks this team is going to be entertaining" ads for the Trib (unless people think getting your ass whooped is entertaining).

Yes!

At 9:11 eastern, the Pirates took the lead! Sure, it was gone by 9:21, but you have to make baby steps before you can bound like the breeze.

Game 22: Pirates at Cardinals

In progress. Jeff Suppan and Victor Santos. Cardinals 2, Pirates 0 after one inning.

Rowdy's new lineup

The Chris Duffy lead-off experiment must end. The man is an out machine, and this hurts our young starters. The lineup must be devoted to getting an early lead. So leading off with Chris Duffy is the worst possible strategy, at this point in time.

Even when healthy, Duffy strikes out a lot for a guy with little power. In the minors, he K'd in about 17% of his plate appearances. This year, he's K'd about 26%. Last year, he only K'd 16% while hitting an obviously unsustainable .340.

Contact rate and batting average correlate. Batting average is not so important if the batter has power. If the batter has little power, batting average is important; singles make up much of the player's on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Without a high batting average, guys like Chris Duffy have little value.

Even if he's fully healthy, Chris Duffy is going to strike out, I'd guess, about 18% of the time. Maybe more. He averaged about 16% in the minors, and he's not done anything in 2006 to suggest he's close to improving that number in the big leagues.

Here are some low-power types with 18% K rates: Jay Bell, 1995 and 1996: .262 BA / ..336 OBP / .404 SLG and .250 / .323 / .391. Mike Benjamin, 2000: .270 / .313 / .391. Pat Meares, 2000: .240 / .305 / .381. Hank Foiles, 1959: .225 / .287 / .375.

What separates Duffy from these guys is speed. Players with average speed and an 18% K rate tend to hit in the .240s. I rattle off those names just to give you an idea of what I think should be a base projection for Duffy -- i.e., Duffy without his wheels.

Duffy's PECOTA forecast is .278 / .330 / .389. This is not good enough to be an effective lead-off man, unless it comes with dozens and dozens and dozens of steals. And PECOTA forecasts a 15% K rate, which strikes me, today, as too optimistic. Still, Duffy often hit .300 in the minors, so that .278 may be more doable than you'd think looking at the seasons of Pat Meares and Mike Benjamin.

What do the Pirates hope for with Chris Duffy? Is it Willy Taveras? He hit .291 / .325 / .341 last season, with 34 steals. Is it Omar Moreno? He struck out in 18% of his PAs in 1982--and stole 60 bases. Still, his overall numbers were .245 / .292 / .315. He scored only 82 runs -- despite 689 PAs -- and knocked in 44. That's not so good. In Moreno's best year, 1979, he scored 110 runs by stealing 77 bases and hitting .282 / .333 / .381, while striking out 14% of the time.

If that's the plan for Duffy, fine. Somehow teach him to halve the current level of strikeouts. Then run his ass ragged on the basepaths. OK. It's a longshot, but it's a plan.

The Pirates don't need to abandon this plan, but they should put the part where all this happens while he leads off against the weakest pitchers - that part - in the shredder.

The Bucs should move Duffy to the bottom of the lineup. Bat him eighth. He can develop his Omarness down there.

Should he continue to play? Sure, I think, if his defense is worth that much to the young starting pitchers.

Should he continue to lead off? No way.

To take better care of the young starters, I'd work harder to get them an early lead. No out machines may hit at the top of the lineup. Period. This 5-16 business means the team must take care of priority one.

Therefore, my new leadoff hitter would be Jack Wilson. For so long as he's caliente. Jason Bay hits second.

Pitchers say it's easier to pitch with a lead. We've seen some evidence of this the last two weeks. Without more early leads, the coaches will never see how these young guys pitch with a lead. And a starter can only be an ace -- a 15-game winner -- if he can pitch with a lead. And aces is priority one.

So bat Duffy eighth, if his defense is that good. Or start Nate McLouth and bat him sixth or seventh. He's not likely to develop sufficient Omarness. He's likely to out-hit Duffy, for sure, but not in a way that you want at the top of the lineup.

Make it Wilson, Bay, then the 20-homer K club.

Game 21: Pirates at Cardinals

Chris Carpenter in the new stadium against Skinny Perez. Game on in fifteen minutes. Pirates want to score early and often on this guy. (Uh, duh. We say the obvious when we're 5-15.) Hopefully Nate McLouth, leading off and playing center, can get on base in one of his first two at-bats.

How they scored

First inning, year to date:

Pirates, 7
The other team, 24.

Second and third innings:

Pirates, 11
The other team, 24.

Fourth through ninth innings:

Pirates, 68
The other team, 65.

How have they outscored their opponents in the last five or six innings and not won more games on the late-inning rally? Because the other team has been, to borrow a football phrase, running out the clock. It's not so much that other teams have used bad pitchers to protect their leads. Rather, it's that those pitchers are letting the Pirates hit their way out of innings. If you have a 6-0 lead in the top of the fifth, who cares if the Pirates score one run? If you are leading 3-1 in the top of the ninth, you'll give the Pirates one run. If it's 7-0 and the Pirates come to bat in the bottom of the sixth, it's a good time to throw the ball where the Pirates can hit it. They score three runs? No big deal--you still lead by four. There's no need to waste pitches, especially if, as the starter, you feel some pressure to go seven or eight innings now that you have a seven-run lead.

The Bucs are fooling themselves if they think they have been in many games. This is how they are 5-15 and not 7-12 or some other better record. The two come-from-behind victories against LA are not enough to earn the "we scrap and are in every game" badge, especially since they squandered three leads in the Milwaukee series.

Game after game, they fall behind. And they stay behind. The game ends, and they have lost. That's how they are 5-15.

Top priority

What is the team's top priority, at this point? I would argue that it regards the crew of young starters. If they can only do one thing this season, they ought to study all the young starters and sort the good from the bad, the reliable from the unreliable, and the future from the past.

Agree or disagree?

Sunday night

John Perrotto rolls out the good rambling voice for his Sunday plog. He tries pretty hard to rag on the fans, but he can't do better than to complain about guys who holler for beanings. Still, the ball in that game goes back to Dejan.

Dejan Kovacevic writes up that thing we saw in the opening series, namely, that teams are going to take away Jason Bay and make the rest of the lineup beat them.

The Pirates continue to handle the Duffy / McLouth platoon in center stupidly, as evidenced by the team stacking the deck against McLouth and continuing to play Duffy--while McLouth continues to outproduce Duffy. It's idiotic. At some point, a grown-up has to tell the child to stop jamming the square peg at the round hole.

Another gem. Read this:

The Astros' Lance Berkman offered one eyebrow-raising theory as to why offensive numbers are up around the majors: The pitchers had to get off steroids, too. "Everybody wants to talk about the hitters being juiced. Nobody even really thinks about the pitchers," he said. "Before, they were throwing 95 mph, but now they're throwing 90. It's going to be a whole different feel."

I think it's safe to assume that some players around the league think Oliver Perez has dropped from 95 to 90 because he's no longer "juiced." Well--maybe not "some players." Lance Berkman would appear to believe this theory deserves consideration.

Game 20: Pirates at Astros

In progress. The Houston players roughed up Paul Maholm in the first, and the Astros lead 4-0.

Game 19: Pirates at Astros

Ian Snell and Taylor Buchholz at seven eastern.

As for this comment from Ed Eagle:

Whatever it is that separates winning teams from losing teams on a game-by-game night, the Pirates just haven't been able to find it through the first 18 games of the season. Time after time, they have come so tantalizingly close to putting it all together only to suffer another gut-wrenching defeat.

Some guys have all the luck; some guys have all the pain; some guys get all the breaks; some guys do nothing but complain. I think Shakespeare said that.

I do think the Pirates have suffered as much from bad luck as they have suffered from bad play. But I also doubt such things even out over time. Since I think it's no great difficult thing to play .500 ball, I imagine the Pirates could pull together and play .500 ball the rest of the season. Since they've been through a run of bad luck, I doubt they can finish the year at .500. It could happen, but I don't expect it. I expect they could finish right where they are now - at eight games under .500. That would happen if there is more unexpected blossoming than the average team usually sees in one year.

And a lot of the forthcoming win-loss record depends on the continued development of young pitchers. So much, in fact, that predictions about a final win-loss record are pretty stupid. We just can't know. The easy prediction would be, some will straighten out and be good while others will not. The team could win 58 if none of the starters improve beyond mediocrity. Or they could win a lot more if they enter August with four aces.

We could talk more about the relative likelihood of this guy or that guy or these guys or those guys getting it together and pitching like top-quality players. I don't know what to make of Ollie. I still expect Tom Glavine-like things from Zach Duke. That may be irrational. Ian Snell I've always seen in the Ramon Ortiz mold. Victor Santos could be like Josh Fogg. Sean Burnett and Tom Gorgonzola look promising. Any of these guys, however, could be more anything two years from now. Young starters are that hard to project.

Game 18: Pirates at Astros

Zach Duke and a fish called Wandy at eight eastern.

Poor and getting worse

Hey - "What's wrong with you people, anyway?"

Dejan Kovacevic takes the John Perrotto suggestion one step further: all this is your fault, you loser fans! Your fault!

You fans had better get your act together. Otherwise, the players will never turn this season around. Put on the A-team theme, you know, and build them a cabbage cannon to blast them Astros.

Operation Crackpipe

Breaking story:

TAMPA, Fla. -- Former outfielder Derek Bell was charged with felony cocaine possession, police said Thursday.

Bell, 37, was pulled over for a traffic violation, Tampa police said.

"He was found with a crack pipe in the back seat of his car which was still warm," police spokesman Larry McKinnon said.

Bell is also charged with possession of drug paraphernalia, McKinnon said. Bell later told police the items were his.

(Thanks to fred for the tip.)

Day off

So the Bucs hit the anticpated one-day break with a record of 5-12. And a lot of guys are injured. Yikes.

Game 17: Cardinals at Pirates

Chris Carpenter and Victor Santos at noon-thirty eastern.

Jack Wilson

Wilson is on pace for 40 errors. And 40 walks in 570 at-bats. Also 101 runs, 101 RBI, 10 steals, and 41 home runs. Curious start.

I'm pretty sure he won't finish the year with a 995 OPS. When I compare it to April 2004, however, this current month looks as good or better.

Game 16: Cardinals at Pirates

Great day for baseball. Should be clear and in the sixties when Oliver Perez battles dead arm at seven eastern.

Your fault

One of my favorite kinds of sports writing is the essay that blames the fans for the team's poor performance.

The same people who complain that the Pirates should shake up the rotation are the same ones who beef about the club never fully giving its young players a chance.

This from "Yeah, they stink, but that's what you wanted" by John Perrotto.

My view is this. Fans can say whatever the hell they want to say. They can be as hypocritical and irrational as they want. People who expect calm, rational consistency to argument or observation should join a book club, and even then they will probably be disappointed. Such clarity rarely characterizes leisure-time diversions.

Following a sports team is a hobby. And it's a hobby, I think, that's good because you can do it carelessly. The fans have plenty of things to worry about - their health, their jobs, their families, you name it - and they don't need a scolding because they carry the teddy bear upside-down. Or sit him in the mud, and then complain that he's dirty.

This is not a comment so much on the start and end of Perrotto's otherwise good essay, but on the whole way some of us bicker and flame one another as the Pirates continue to disgrace the family name.

It's not fair, I think, to blame the fans for not rooting correctly. Or even for having ill-informed expectations. These things should be expected, tolerated, and maybe even encouraged. If you want more mature fans, you have accept the immature ones and retain them over the many years it can take to learn some first principles.

In other news, this team sucks. For example, did you see the bench last night? Mike Edwards, Humberto Cota, and Jose Hernandez. Not much different than Ben Grieve, Benito Santiago, and Abraham Nunez. They did a good job loading up on depth before the season, but it only took a few injuries to return them to this condition.

As soon as the pitchers begin a string of mediocre-to-good starts, the batters will stop scoring runs. That's what I expect. The pitchers can't be this bad much longer, and since the team now lacks several of its best hitters, opposing teams will have no problem avoiding our few good hitters in their best situations.

The only way the Pirates continue to score as many runs as they have been scoring: guys like Jose Castillo and Chris Duffy have to step up and play like stars. That, or the opposing teams have to use only the back end of the bullpen to protect their 7-0 leads.

Game 15: Cardinals at Pirates

The Bucs are bobbing along at six games under .500, the winners of four games in their last eight. Much of the good in the past week came from Craig Wilson, who takes home the NL Player of the Week award for his 10-RBI effort.

Tonight it's Jason Marquis and Paul Maholm.

Concentration and focus

Alan Robinson on the Pirates' coming decision on Ian Snell.