Horribly broken

Some points and conclusions:

1. It’s not hard to play .500 baseball. Any team can do it most any year.

2. It is easy to play .450 baseball. Any group of malingering slackers can do it. It is difficult to play .550 baseball.

3. Because I believe (1), I am inclined to always believe the Pirates are poised for a .500 season. For this I am often mistaken for a pollyanna booster. I’m OK with that. Part of me wants to be one anyway.

4. Because I believe (1), I will not be heartily impressed when they do play .500 baseball. I have not had much opportunity to express such admirable skepticism on this blog.

5. All performance must be considered (or “translated” as statheads say) in the context of the scoreboard. For example, it is easier to pitch well when your team has a lead. It is harder to pitch well when your team is behind. It is easier to hit a home run when you’re team is down 8-0. It is harder to hit a home run when the score is tied. Another example: it is easier to win five of ten if you begin those ten games, twelve games under .500. It is harder to win five of ten if you begin those ten games, twelve games over .500. In baseball, managers shuffle players in and out of the lineup, saving their best for the best. If the Astros are in first, why should they care much if they lose to the Pirates? We are not a division rival; we are a division patsy. Our win does not hurt them twice, since we are in no position to threaten them for first place. On the other hand, if the Cardinals are in second, the first-place Astros should naturally regard a series with St. Louis as exactly twice as important as that series with last-place Pittsburgh.

6. Because I believe (5), I put little stock in excellent individual performances or outstanding winning periods if done in the context of twelve games under .500. So what if they win, say, nine of the next twelve? They are still hopelessly buried underground. They’d move from twelve games under to six games under. Individually, the wins might be enjoyable. But they are not much evidence that the team is competitive or offers hope for the future. Let them start at .500, and then let’s see them win nine of twelve.

7. Because I believe (6), the middle of the season only matters much if the start of the season went well. If the Pirates fall twelve games under in April, the season is more or less over for me, as a fan of continuous interest, except as a point of humor or a comfort of habit. It’s over unless, of course, they somehow improve their record to .500. Until they are beating teams that fear them and start all their best players against them, the wins don’t mean so much.

8. The start of 2005 was a tremendous disappointment. They fought back to 30-30, and then they were destroyed. The start of 2006 has been even worse. In both Aprils, I thought they stood a good chance of playing .500 ball for at least a few months. See (1).

9. The general conduct and decision-making of the owners and GM has been, overall, passably competent. There was the Aramis Ramirez thing, but then there was the Jason Bay trade. The got rid of Chris Shelton at just the wrong time, and they got rid of Jason Kendall at just the right time. There have been bad signings. There have been good signings gone inexplicably bad. Is all that the fault of the owners and front office? Would another group have done better? I don’t think we know. Still, we have point (8). The appearance of passable competence does not jibe with the documentation of spectacular failure. I can only conclude that the situation is much worse than it appears, on the surface, to a fan who is inclined to believe that everyone is usually acting and decision-making in good faith.

To make a long story short, this 5-17, after 2005’s April, is more than bad luck. Something is horribly broken, and I can’t tell you what it is.

The season is more or less over for me. Right now, I’d rather listen to John Lee Hooker than Lanny and Greg and Bob and John.

But don’t worry. I’m not closing down the blog or anything like that. I know you would hate that. Bad enough the Pirates stink, but to lose Honest Wagner? Unthinkable!

You can expect fewer and less serious postings, however. And maybe a post or two about the Greatness that is John Lee Hooker. All hail John Lee Hooker! Right now he's singing:

Should have been gone
Long time, long time ago.
I hung around here
way too long, way too long.
Hold up my right hand
I swear I won't be back no more
Hold up my right hand
I swear I won't be back no more.
I should have been gone
Long time, long time ago.