All hail Craig Wilson

Apparently our Stats Geek has gotten some funding from the Works Progress Administration (WPA) to apply the new math. This was a good idea. The result is something like the adjust-stats-for-scoreboard fantasy that haunts my uh, moments of clarity. Read the whole thing and do not rely on my summary here.

Lately I've suspected that some of the players have done better than others in mop-up time. Just as you don't take seriously a running back's 100-yard second half when his team trailed by four touchdowns all the way, so I think we should not take seriously the whole bunch of basehits this guy or that guy collects when the team is down 8-0. Scuffy Moehler is throwing the ball right over the plate, aiming for bats.

Because I still remember Wilson's start to the 2005 season, I still have something of a grudge against him, and I would have guessed he's the one who has most padded his stats in garbage time. O contrair. He is in fact our most clutch guy. Sorry I doubted you, Craig. All hail Craig!

So who's been living high on the hit-this fastball? Freddy Sanchez. As Brian O'Neill writes:

The only WPA that shocked me was a negative 60 for Freddy Sanchez. He's hitting .319 with a .356 on-base average and .511 slugging average and he has done a good job cashing in limited RBI opportunities. But a scan of his games shows he has done most of his best work in early innings or blowouts such as Sunday's loss, when hits hardly move the odds needle. If Sanchez keeps hitting, his WPA should improve.

This WPA looks like an excellent stat. I will pay more attention to it.

The only thing that concerns me is that WPA appears to belittle the value of the early innings. Note how O'Neill writes "in early innings" like they don't "move the needle." Pshaw! No innings are more important. Teams that get a lead tend to keep the lead. Early scoring is the surest way to often winning.

Maybe the WPA can fund some more studies to clear up this flaw. I recommend they give the money to Brian O'Neill.

And all hail Freddy Sanchez for moving the needle in the early innings.