Use it or lose it

Kovacevic reports that tonight could be Ollie's last start.

Game 35: D'backs at Pirates

Brandon Webb and Paul Maholm. I believe Maholm started and ended an inning with a lead three times this season. I think he's also blown some leads.

Here's to hoping Tracy stacks the top of the lineup with our best hitters. I want to see if Maholm can pitch well with a lead, even a small one. The Pirates have to score in the first if they want lots of useful data about Maholm's ability to pitch for a winning ballclub.

Snell protects lead

Big news: Ian Snell had a lead, and he kept it, for many innings.

The Bucs took a 1-0 lead in the first. Paulino made it 2-0 in the second. Snell pitched six innings - the second through the seventh - and he protected that lead.

The only other time Snell pitched with a lead was in his first win, on April 28. The Bucs gave him a one-run lead for the top of the seventh. And he blew it. Fortunately, they scored two in the bottom of the inning while he was the pitcher of record. That's how he won that game.

I consider this lead-protection a small but real step toward Snell winning ten, fifteen, or even twenty games for us. You can't win games if you can't preserve a lead.

Hats off for Ian Snell!

I'm still waiting for Ollie to protect a lead this season. In all his starts this year, he has yet to pitch with a lead. Unfortunately, this is not so much a story about run support.

Game 34: D'Backs at Pirates

Ian Snell and Miguel "the Poet" Batista.

New lineup tonight: Bautista 3B, McLouth CF, Sanchez SS, Bay LF, Burnitz RF, Wilson 1B, Paulino C, Castillo 2B. Will be intersting to see if that trio can do anything with their at-bats in the first and third/fourth. Also I'm curious to see if Snell can go an inning or two without giving up a run.

It's become a season of three-inning games for me.

Brian O'Neill

The man's on fire. Maybe it's the fifth of rum. Or maybe not.

I don't fault the Bucs so much for signing old guys as I fault them for playing them when they don't perform. If you aren't prepared to bench an old guy because he's slow and ineffective, you should not have signed him in the first place.

Swiss Ben

For temporary distraction from the unbridled misery that is the Pirates, be sure to read up on Big Ben's trip to Switzerland. What is joy, if not Big Ben petting a two-day-old spotted calf? Is it just me, or did anyone else suspect these four pictures are presented out-of-order, i.e. that the heavy-jowled Ben in front of the clock in pic#2 has just devoured a two-day-old spotted calf, a bigass wheel of cheese, and the scrawny arm of a tiny Swiss American Football player? Anyway, all hail the Roethlisbergers!

Same old Pirates

Bob Smizik's assessment of the team's situation looks about right.

Whoa

Jack's comment in Kovacevic's notebook sounds like a good reason to disable him. He's signed for so many more years, and hamstring injuries can become chronic. How about Bautista 3B, Freddy SS, Bay LF, Wilson 1B, Burnitz RF, Castillo 2B, Paulino C, Duffy CF for the next week?

Games 33: Pirates at Nats

If the Pirates are true to recent form, they will make recent A-ball pitcher Mike O'Connor look like Zach Duke. Come sleepy. Game at one.

I think I can find something better to do. Maybe I will put on my old football uniform and stand around the yard, posing for pictures.

Momentum

According to the Tribune-Review, the 9-23 Pirates have momentum.

Rob Rossi does not use the word, and I know most reporters do not write their own headlines, so I will cut him some slack for the somewhat premature declaration.

Bob Friend

Article by Bob Barrickman for Perrotto's paper.

We don't need Jeromy Burnitz

Tracy, as reported by DK:

Asked why he would not use Doumit in right field, a position he has played previously, and supplant Jeromy Burnitz, who was batting .198, Tracy replied: "We need Jeromy Burnitz. We need him to do offensive things, and the only way to get that is to keep sending him out there."

Not-uh. See Oliver Perez post, below.

Game 32: Pirates at Nats

The Bucs have won 8 games, and they have lost 23 games.

...update (Bones): Ramon Ortiz vs. Victor Santos. Doumit playing 1B. Bucs down 2-0 after one.

Barbaro!

All hail the undefeated horse! Start the Triple Crown talk.

the Derby

Not so much hype this year for the Kentucky Derby. The Derby may be the best excuse - as if you'd need one - to start your day with a mint julep. Or middle your day. Or end your day.

I'm on Sweetnorthernsaint, the Kent Desormeaux horse, and Cause to Believe, the dog with the pink colors. I don't know shit about the horses this year, but I have been betting on Kent Desormeaux since the late 80s.

... just heard "My Old Kentucky Home" from the University of Louisville band. Derby on!

We don't need Oliver Perez

Jim Tracy tells Dejan Kovacevic in this morning's paper:

"We need Oliver Perez. We need him to be a good pitcher for us. I'm not going to sit here and suggest he has his head in a guillotine. We need to get him straightened out."

When Littlefield took over the job, he used to talk about "flexibility" and the need for the team to adapt as plans fail. Now it's all about, "We can only win if our #1 starter is left-handed and throws 95. We can only win if our clean-up hitter is a left-handed power hitter who can get the ball into PNC's short porch. We can only win if our leadoff hitter is Omar Moreno Jr. We can only win if Mike Gonzalez develops into Eric Gagne. We can only win with good infield defense."

They have been too wedded to a plan with too many details. Enough with the ultimatums, and go back, I say, to the emphasis on flexibility. Maybe the Pirates can only win the 2006 World Series if Oliver Perez becomes Randy Johnson. I can understand looking at the team this way in January or February. You place your bets, you go for broke, whatever. But guess what: it's May. The team has yet to win its tenth game. And Oliver Perez did not become Randy Johnson. Time to scrap the inflexible thinking and more freely shuffle the deck. Why does Oliver Perez deserve such special treatment? It's demoralizing and dysfunctional to keep talking like he's the future of the team.

Right now, the Bucs must find five or six starters worth building around. Oliver Perez looks like he couldn't get outs at AAA. Time to demote him and move on. Don't make a big deal about it; just do it. The train has to leave the station at some point. Hasta luego, Ollie.

Cosmetic changes

"What's happened is just unacceptable ... (the signings of veteran free agents) hasn't been working," Glass said. "Cosmetic changes don't help. We're going to have to figure out how to change the direction the team has gone this year. We've got to do something more significant than cosmetic changes."

Ouch. Although I wonder why he cares so much about the Bucs, I appreciate Glass taking the time to lambaste DL and the Pirates. I'd just hate to hear him rant about his sorry Royals.

Game 31: Pirates at Nationals

Zachary Day and Ollie doesn't bumaye.

... nice lineup tonight, at least. I wonder if Freddy can get on base in the first and third for us.

What next for Oliver Perez? Another dozen starts? Demotion? Bullpen?

Doumit at first

I still say the Pirates' top priority has to be sorting the starters into guys we keep and build around, guys we keep for now, guys we trade, and guys we move to the bullpen. So all hail Ronny Paulino as the starting catcher. If Doumit's lousy game-calling has anything to do with some struggles, the Bucs need to eliminate that variable from the equation. Play him at first, sure. Even if Burnitz starts having a great season, he still needs regular rest.

The Duffy in leadoff experiment continues to be a counterproductive failure. If our rotation was full of known quantities - veterans of predictable performance - then I could see how this would be a priority. Right now, it's counterproductive. You can't begin the game with an automatic out. It reduces your chance of scoring in the first, and it reduces your chance of getting an early lead. And we always want an early lead if we are bent on evaluating young starters.

Duffy is an out machine. In his last 50 PAs, he has 12 Ks and a .291 OBP. Stop the madness. Bat him eighth. Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez should bat one and two, or two and one.

If Tracy tries to do too much, he risks doing nothing.

Game 30: Pirates at Mets

Maholm and Glavine at seven eastern.

Game 29: Pirates at Mets

The Bucs remain mind-numbingly, improbably bad, with an 8-20 record. If they can go 22-10 in the next 32, they match last year's accomplishment of 30-30 after 60.

I like seeing the Pirates play the Mets because historically, I think, we always whup up on the Mets, even when we are bad and they are good. That's how I remember it at least. We have Ian Snell; they have Pedro Martinez. Seven o'clock eastern. If the Pirates trail after one inning, I turn the game off.

This is a good defense mechanism for Pirates fans to have. 75% or more of the games in which they trail after one go badly in the next eight innings. Discretion is the better part of valor. The fan who runs, lives to cheer another day. The fan who punishes himself, soon finds a new hobby.

Honus and Me

So why does a play about Wagner have to be family fare?

It is 1917. The team's record is 9-19, and they are in New York to face the Giants. 43-year-old Honus now mans first base. He no longer threatens pitchers, and he's surrounded with a cast of inept kids. The team's top slugger, Will Fischer, finishes the year with 3 home runs and a .376 SLG. The Pirates are headed toward a 51-103 season.

The curtain rises to reveal a group of angry fans gathered in a saloon. One fan reads aloud the astoundingly bad news about the Pirates from the newspaper. The others swear a lot. The bartender is very, very busy.

I don't know where we go with it, but it's ugly.

Question

In light of details such as those leading the Q & A, is it possible that our players are throwing these games as part of a league-wide conspiracy to force the owners to sell?

Contrary to the opinion of Bones, I don't believe our players are that much less talented than those on most of the other teams around the league. Yet they have an abysmally low winning percentage. Bad luck alone cannot explain this. It's as if they are shaving points.

Anyone else suspect some player anger with our owners has more than a little to do with their embarrassing performance on the field?

I'm not saying I am convinced this is the case. Far from it. But I do wonder if there wasn't something funny going on in the locker room during the first few weeks of April.

...forgot to mention the other data points that made me suspect the players were out to embarrass the owners: Ty Wigginton and Chris Shelton.

Maybe I just have to come over to the side that says our players are that much worse and ungifted genetically.

Game 28: Pirates at Cubs

The Bucs posted a lead for Zach Duke, and he's rode that thing into the seventh. Pirates 8, Cubs 0, in the bottom of the seventh.

... Holy cow, Zach Duke: 77 pitches in seven innings. He . . . could . . . go . . . all . . . the . . . way.

Get these young pitchers a lead, and good things happen. Duke has only one K, so we know he's putting the ball where they can hit it -- a little bit. Freddy Sanchez looks like a pro hitting third. Chris Duffy has gone 1-for-4 but, most important, he got on and scored in the first inning. He can go 1-for-6 as the leadoff guy, for all I care, provided he gets that first hit in the first inning. Right now we need early leads more than anything.

Clemente: The Passion and Grace of Baseball's Last Hero

On Sunday, I picked up a copy of David Maraniss's new book. I have not read a word of it yet. But I will say, it is a beautiful book. They even got the color of the cloth right.

Game 27: Pirates at Cubs

You are sitting in Wrigley field, listening to Victor Santos and Sean Marshall warming up. Thanks to your new second eyepatch, you can't see a damn thing. It is pitch black. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

NFL draft, Day 2

All hail more new Steelers:

Rd. 4:
Willie Colon, G, Hofstra, "top sleeper"
Orien Harris, DT, Miami (FL), "quick and powerful", looks real mean
Rd. 5:
Omar Jacobs, QB, Bowling Green, "cannon for an arm"
Charles Davis, TE, Purdue, "natural athlete" and "huge target"
Rd. 6:
Marvin Philip, C, Cal, "agile...powerful drive blocker"
Rd. 7:
Cedric Humes, TB, Virginia Tech, "honest runner", "big upside as a power back. Has a powerful frame to run over tacklers while taking no prisoners once he squares his shoulders. He runs with a crouched style, getting full use of his fine lower-body strength to move the pile and gain the tough yardage."

Great draft. Cowher and Colbert were grinning ear-to-ear yesterday, and are likely even more proud of themselves now. Do you think Colbert and DL have ever had a conversation? If so, what would they say to each other?

Game 26: Phillies at Pirates

Gavin Floyd vs. Ollie. Bucs are down 4-0 after 2 1/2. Ollie is getting hit hard.

NFL Draft, Day 1

All hail the new Steelers:

Rd. 1: Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio St.
Rd. 3: Anthony Smith, S, Syracuse
Rd. 3: Willie Reid, WR, Florida St.

Hats off to Kevin Colbert and Cowher for pulling off the unlikely. Starting with the 32nd pick, they somehow managed to trade up to get the top WR in the draft who was projected by most to go in the top 15 picks. Brilliant as usual.

At first, I was a little confused over Smith and Reid. The Steelers had Smith as the fourth-best S, in front of Ko Simpson and Darnell Bing. Knocks on these other guys include Bing being a poor tackler and Ko being old. I trust Colbert and Cowher's judgement for whatever reason. Reid looks fast and skilled, with the only knock I've seen against him so far is that he's smallish. I'm guessing that usually Reid will return punts and Holmes will return kickoffs.

Six picks left in rounds 4-7. What do we need? RB, C, DE, more OL and DBs? A third string QB? Maybe not, as Tim Couch worked out Thursday in Pittsburgh (via Ryan).

Game 25: Phillies at Pirates

Lidle vs. Maholm. Scoreless after one. First time Paul pitched a scoreless first inning in four starts. We will ... pay more attention to the Steelers' round two pick coming up soon.

Update: Steelers trade round 2(64th) pick to Minnesota for two third round picks (83rd and 95th). Pirates lead 3-1 after 5 1/2. Maholm pitching well.

NFL Draft thread

Houston took the DE, which is smart I think, and the Saints are on the clock. I'll tune in again in several hours, when it's about time for the Steelers to take the league to school.

. . . Steelers trade up to get their choice for the #1 WR in the draft. Since the competition was a Florida player, I'm psyched this guy is Ohio State. Did the league zig and the Steelers zag? Without knowing much of anything about the players, it looks like a smart play.

The Steelers are good at the draft, so odds are they will find players without their #3 and #4. With the extra picks, they will have plenty of chances, too. Quality matters as much as quantity, but we will have a better idea of their ability to find overlooked gems come September. Time will tell if this was a good play or just a good-looking play. For now, then, Welcome Santonio Holmes.

...Anthony Smith (FS) sounds like a project. Others will call him a reach. They did well with Ike Taylor . . .

Game 24: Phillies and Pirates

Brett Myers and Ian Snell.

Joe Table vs. Omar Vizquel

Bones and I have long been looking forward to this matchup. I missed it when it happened; I'm sorry I had to read about it so many days later.

Last year, McClendon wisely kept Joe away from Omar in the only six games the Bucs and Giants enjoyed together.

The NFL Draft

Sinorice Moss would be a wasted first-round choice, given that guys like Az Hakim and Tim Dwight are almost always available. Little speedy guys have their place in the NFL, and the Steelers could probably use one. But it's a waste of a first-round pick. Or even a second-round pick.

With the early picks, I'd like to see them get some people for the offensive line. With their six picks in the first four rounds, I also expect the Steelers will clean up and bring home a good haul of good players.

Horribly bad

Some counterpoints and conclusions:

1. All baseball players are not genetically predispositioned and environmentally adapted equally. Some have skills, and are good. Some have few skills, and are very, very bad. The probability of a baseball team playing .500 is a function of the collective skills of the team. For a team made up of mostly bad players, it is hard to play .500 baseball. For a team of mostly good players, it is not hard.

2. The Pirates do not have many good players. Thus, because of (1), their poor play is likely more a result of bad players, than of these bad players feigning injuries or slacking.

3. Because I believe (2), I put the burden of the blame for overall poor play on the front office, which has fielded said bad team.

4. For a bunch of mostly bad players to achieve a .217 winning percentage through 23 games is truly remarkable and almost unprecedented. For stooping to this abysmal nadir, the players, coaches, GM, and owners should all be held accountable. The owners, GM, and coaches should be mercilessly flogged in public.

5. The general conduct and decision-making of the owners and GM has been, overall, egregiously incompetent.

6. We could afford more good players if we canned three people and anointed Bob Walk as coach/pitching coach/GM.

Horribly broken

Some points and conclusions:

1. It’s not hard to play .500 baseball. Any team can do it most any year.

2. It is easy to play .450 baseball. Any group of malingering slackers can do it. It is difficult to play .550 baseball.

3. Because I believe (1), I am inclined to always believe the Pirates are poised for a .500 season. For this I am often mistaken for a pollyanna booster. I’m OK with that. Part of me wants to be one anyway.

4. Because I believe (1), I will not be heartily impressed when they do play .500 baseball. I have not had much opportunity to express such admirable skepticism on this blog.

5. All performance must be considered (or “translated” as statheads say) in the context of the scoreboard. For example, it is easier to pitch well when your team has a lead. It is harder to pitch well when your team is behind. It is easier to hit a home run when you’re team is down 8-0. It is harder to hit a home run when the score is tied. Another example: it is easier to win five of ten if you begin those ten games, twelve games under .500. It is harder to win five of ten if you begin those ten games, twelve games over .500. In baseball, managers shuffle players in and out of the lineup, saving their best for the best. If the Astros are in first, why should they care much if they lose to the Pirates? We are not a division rival; we are a division patsy. Our win does not hurt them twice, since we are in no position to threaten them for first place. On the other hand, if the Cardinals are in second, the first-place Astros should naturally regard a series with St. Louis as exactly twice as important as that series with last-place Pittsburgh.

6. Because I believe (5), I put little stock in excellent individual performances or outstanding winning periods if done in the context of twelve games under .500. So what if they win, say, nine of the next twelve? They are still hopelessly buried underground. They’d move from twelve games under to six games under. Individually, the wins might be enjoyable. But they are not much evidence that the team is competitive or offers hope for the future. Let them start at .500, and then let’s see them win nine of twelve.

7. Because I believe (6), the middle of the season only matters much if the start of the season went well. If the Pirates fall twelve games under in April, the season is more or less over for me, as a fan of continuous interest, except as a point of humor or a comfort of habit. It’s over unless, of course, they somehow improve their record to .500. Until they are beating teams that fear them and start all their best players against them, the wins don’t mean so much.

8. The start of 2005 was a tremendous disappointment. They fought back to 30-30, and then they were destroyed. The start of 2006 has been even worse. In both Aprils, I thought they stood a good chance of playing .500 ball for at least a few months. See (1).

9. The general conduct and decision-making of the owners and GM has been, overall, passably competent. There was the Aramis Ramirez thing, but then there was the Jason Bay trade. The got rid of Chris Shelton at just the wrong time, and they got rid of Jason Kendall at just the right time. There have been bad signings. There have been good signings gone inexplicably bad. Is all that the fault of the owners and front office? Would another group have done better? I don’t think we know. Still, we have point (8). The appearance of passable competence does not jibe with the documentation of spectacular failure. I can only conclude that the situation is much worse than it appears, on the surface, to a fan who is inclined to believe that everyone is usually acting and decision-making in good faith.

To make a long story short, this 5-17, after 2005’s April, is more than bad luck. Something is horribly broken, and I can’t tell you what it is.

The season is more or less over for me. Right now, I’d rather listen to John Lee Hooker than Lanny and Greg and Bob and John.

But don’t worry. I’m not closing down the blog or anything like that. I know you would hate that. Bad enough the Pirates stink, but to lose Honest Wagner? Unthinkable!

You can expect fewer and less serious postings, however. And maybe a post or two about the Greatness that is John Lee Hooker. All hail John Lee Hooker! Right now he's singing:

Should have been gone
Long time, long time ago.
I hung around here
way too long, way too long.
Hold up my right hand
I swear I won't be back no more
Hold up my right hand
I swear I won't be back no more.
I should have been gone
Long time, long time ago.

Game 23: Pirates at Cardinals

In progress. Duke vs. Mulder. Duke made it over 8 minutes before giving up the obligatory first inning run. Cards 2, Bucs 0 after two.

What do you think of that?

Ron Cook writes about how some guy from Cuba wants to buy the team. You know what, this might be a good idea. Down there they get a lot more life out of their cars, and for the next so many years, we're more or less stuck with this junker.

Lick it up

"I didn't just crap my pants. I crapped my #1-Pirates-Fan-Pants! I know it doesn't spell 'pennant' or anything, but I'm willing to give it a shot. Yeah baby!"

Ack! As if the Pirates' Bad-News-Bears Act and the jackassery of Lanny, Blass, and Wehner weren't painful enough, we get spoonfed this recycled garbage again? If the Pirates' marketing dept. can come up with a two word motto, why can't PNC bank come up with one new 30 second ad? Maybe because they assume, like the front office, that we can be paid in puke, and then asked to lick it up?

Anyway, as Billy pointed out, it's time to axe the ad featuring the offseason moves. Let's also axe the "Rob Rossi thinks this team is going to be entertaining" ads for the Trib (unless people think getting your ass whooped is entertaining).

Yes!

At 9:11 eastern, the Pirates took the lead! Sure, it was gone by 9:21, but you have to make baby steps before you can bound like the breeze.

Game 22: Pirates at Cardinals

In progress. Jeff Suppan and Victor Santos. Cardinals 2, Pirates 0 after one inning.

Rowdy's new lineup

The Chris Duffy lead-off experiment must end. The man is an out machine, and this hurts our young starters. The lineup must be devoted to getting an early lead. So leading off with Chris Duffy is the worst possible strategy, at this point in time.

Even when healthy, Duffy strikes out a lot for a guy with little power. In the minors, he K'd in about 17% of his plate appearances. This year, he's K'd about 26%. Last year, he only K'd 16% while hitting an obviously unsustainable .340.

Contact rate and batting average correlate. Batting average is not so important if the batter has power. If the batter has little power, batting average is important; singles make up much of the player's on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Without a high batting average, guys like Chris Duffy have little value.

Even if he's fully healthy, Chris Duffy is going to strike out, I'd guess, about 18% of the time. Maybe more. He averaged about 16% in the minors, and he's not done anything in 2006 to suggest he's close to improving that number in the big leagues.

Here are some low-power types with 18% K rates: Jay Bell, 1995 and 1996: .262 BA / ..336 OBP / .404 SLG and .250 / .323 / .391. Mike Benjamin, 2000: .270 / .313 / .391. Pat Meares, 2000: .240 / .305 / .381. Hank Foiles, 1959: .225 / .287 / .375.

What separates Duffy from these guys is speed. Players with average speed and an 18% K rate tend to hit in the .240s. I rattle off those names just to give you an idea of what I think should be a base projection for Duffy -- i.e., Duffy without his wheels.

Duffy's PECOTA forecast is .278 / .330 / .389. This is not good enough to be an effective lead-off man, unless it comes with dozens and dozens and dozens of steals. And PECOTA forecasts a 15% K rate, which strikes me, today, as too optimistic. Still, Duffy often hit .300 in the minors, so that .278 may be more doable than you'd think looking at the seasons of Pat Meares and Mike Benjamin.

What do the Pirates hope for with Chris Duffy? Is it Willy Taveras? He hit .291 / .325 / .341 last season, with 34 steals. Is it Omar Moreno? He struck out in 18% of his PAs in 1982--and stole 60 bases. Still, his overall numbers were .245 / .292 / .315. He scored only 82 runs -- despite 689 PAs -- and knocked in 44. That's not so good. In Moreno's best year, 1979, he scored 110 runs by stealing 77 bases and hitting .282 / .333 / .381, while striking out 14% of the time.

If that's the plan for Duffy, fine. Somehow teach him to halve the current level of strikeouts. Then run his ass ragged on the basepaths. OK. It's a longshot, but it's a plan.

The Pirates don't need to abandon this plan, but they should put the part where all this happens while he leads off against the weakest pitchers - that part - in the shredder.

The Bucs should move Duffy to the bottom of the lineup. Bat him eighth. He can develop his Omarness down there.

Should he continue to play? Sure, I think, if his defense is worth that much to the young starting pitchers.

Should he continue to lead off? No way.

To take better care of the young starters, I'd work harder to get them an early lead. No out machines may hit at the top of the lineup. Period. This 5-16 business means the team must take care of priority one.

Therefore, my new leadoff hitter would be Jack Wilson. For so long as he's caliente. Jason Bay hits second.

Pitchers say it's easier to pitch with a lead. We've seen some evidence of this the last two weeks. Without more early leads, the coaches will never see how these young guys pitch with a lead. And a starter can only be an ace -- a 15-game winner -- if he can pitch with a lead. And aces is priority one.

So bat Duffy eighth, if his defense is that good. Or start Nate McLouth and bat him sixth or seventh. He's not likely to develop sufficient Omarness. He's likely to out-hit Duffy, for sure, but not in a way that you want at the top of the lineup.

Make it Wilson, Bay, then the 20-homer K club.

Game 21: Pirates at Cardinals

Chris Carpenter in the new stadium against Skinny Perez. Game on in fifteen minutes. Pirates want to score early and often on this guy. (Uh, duh. We say the obvious when we're 5-15.) Hopefully Nate McLouth, leading off and playing center, can get on base in one of his first two at-bats.

How they scored

First inning, year to date:

Pirates, 7
The other team, 24.

Second and third innings:

Pirates, 11
The other team, 24.

Fourth through ninth innings:

Pirates, 68
The other team, 65.

How have they outscored their opponents in the last five or six innings and not won more games on the late-inning rally? Because the other team has been, to borrow a football phrase, running out the clock. It's not so much that other teams have used bad pitchers to protect their leads. Rather, it's that those pitchers are letting the Pirates hit their way out of innings. If you have a 6-0 lead in the top of the fifth, who cares if the Pirates score one run? If you are leading 3-1 in the top of the ninth, you'll give the Pirates one run. If it's 7-0 and the Pirates come to bat in the bottom of the sixth, it's a good time to throw the ball where the Pirates can hit it. They score three runs? No big deal--you still lead by four. There's no need to waste pitches, especially if, as the starter, you feel some pressure to go seven or eight innings now that you have a seven-run lead.

The Bucs are fooling themselves if they think they have been in many games. This is how they are 5-15 and not 7-12 or some other better record. The two come-from-behind victories against LA are not enough to earn the "we scrap and are in every game" badge, especially since they squandered three leads in the Milwaukee series.

Game after game, they fall behind. And they stay behind. The game ends, and they have lost. That's how they are 5-15.

Top priority

What is the team's top priority, at this point? I would argue that it regards the crew of young starters. If they can only do one thing this season, they ought to study all the young starters and sort the good from the bad, the reliable from the unreliable, and the future from the past.

Agree or disagree?

Sunday night

John Perrotto rolls out the good rambling voice for his Sunday plog. He tries pretty hard to rag on the fans, but he can't do better than to complain about guys who holler for beanings. Still, the ball in that game goes back to Dejan.

Dejan Kovacevic writes up that thing we saw in the opening series, namely, that teams are going to take away Jason Bay and make the rest of the lineup beat them.

The Pirates continue to handle the Duffy / McLouth platoon in center stupidly, as evidenced by the team stacking the deck against McLouth and continuing to play Duffy--while McLouth continues to outproduce Duffy. It's idiotic. At some point, a grown-up has to tell the child to stop jamming the square peg at the round hole.

Another gem. Read this:

The Astros' Lance Berkman offered one eyebrow-raising theory as to why offensive numbers are up around the majors: The pitchers had to get off steroids, too. "Everybody wants to talk about the hitters being juiced. Nobody even really thinks about the pitchers," he said. "Before, they were throwing 95 mph, but now they're throwing 90. It's going to be a whole different feel."

I think it's safe to assume that some players around the league think Oliver Perez has dropped from 95 to 90 because he's no longer "juiced." Well--maybe not "some players." Lance Berkman would appear to believe this theory deserves consideration.

Game 20: Pirates at Astros

In progress. The Houston players roughed up Paul Maholm in the first, and the Astros lead 4-0.

Game 19: Pirates at Astros

Ian Snell and Taylor Buchholz at seven eastern.

As for this comment from Ed Eagle:

Whatever it is that separates winning teams from losing teams on a game-by-game night, the Pirates just haven't been able to find it through the first 18 games of the season. Time after time, they have come so tantalizingly close to putting it all together only to suffer another gut-wrenching defeat.

Some guys have all the luck; some guys have all the pain; some guys get all the breaks; some guys do nothing but complain. I think Shakespeare said that.

I do think the Pirates have suffered as much from bad luck as they have suffered from bad play. But I also doubt such things even out over time. Since I think it's no great difficult thing to play .500 ball, I imagine the Pirates could pull together and play .500 ball the rest of the season. Since they've been through a run of bad luck, I doubt they can finish the year at .500. It could happen, but I don't expect it. I expect they could finish right where they are now - at eight games under .500. That would happen if there is more unexpected blossoming than the average team usually sees in one year.

And a lot of the forthcoming win-loss record depends on the continued development of young pitchers. So much, in fact, that predictions about a final win-loss record are pretty stupid. We just can't know. The easy prediction would be, some will straighten out and be good while others will not. The team could win 58 if none of the starters improve beyond mediocrity. Or they could win a lot more if they enter August with four aces.

We could talk more about the relative likelihood of this guy or that guy or these guys or those guys getting it together and pitching like top-quality players. I don't know what to make of Ollie. I still expect Tom Glavine-like things from Zach Duke. That may be irrational. Ian Snell I've always seen in the Ramon Ortiz mold. Victor Santos could be like Josh Fogg. Sean Burnett and Tom Gorgonzola look promising. Any of these guys, however, could be more anything two years from now. Young starters are that hard to project.

Game 18: Pirates at Astros

Zach Duke and a fish called Wandy at eight eastern.

Poor and getting worse

Hey - "What's wrong with you people, anyway?"

Dejan Kovacevic takes the John Perrotto suggestion one step further: all this is your fault, you loser fans! Your fault!

You fans had better get your act together. Otherwise, the players will never turn this season around. Put on the A-team theme, you know, and build them a cabbage cannon to blast them Astros.

Operation Crackpipe

Breaking story:

TAMPA, Fla. -- Former outfielder Derek Bell was charged with felony cocaine possession, police said Thursday.

Bell, 37, was pulled over for a traffic violation, Tampa police said.

"He was found with a crack pipe in the back seat of his car which was still warm," police spokesman Larry McKinnon said.

Bell is also charged with possession of drug paraphernalia, McKinnon said. Bell later told police the items were his.

(Thanks to fred for the tip.)

Day off

So the Bucs hit the anticpated one-day break with a record of 5-12. And a lot of guys are injured. Yikes.

Game 17: Cardinals at Pirates

Chris Carpenter and Victor Santos at noon-thirty eastern.

Jack Wilson

Wilson is on pace for 40 errors. And 40 walks in 570 at-bats. Also 101 runs, 101 RBI, 10 steals, and 41 home runs. Curious start.

I'm pretty sure he won't finish the year with a 995 OPS. When I compare it to April 2004, however, this current month looks as good or better.

Game 16: Cardinals at Pirates

Great day for baseball. Should be clear and in the sixties when Oliver Perez battles dead arm at seven eastern.

Your fault

One of my favorite kinds of sports writing is the essay that blames the fans for the team's poor performance.

The same people who complain that the Pirates should shake up the rotation are the same ones who beef about the club never fully giving its young players a chance.

This from "Yeah, they stink, but that's what you wanted" by John Perrotto.

My view is this. Fans can say whatever the hell they want to say. They can be as hypocritical and irrational as they want. People who expect calm, rational consistency to argument or observation should join a book club, and even then they will probably be disappointed. Such clarity rarely characterizes leisure-time diversions.

Following a sports team is a hobby. And it's a hobby, I think, that's good because you can do it carelessly. The fans have plenty of things to worry about - their health, their jobs, their families, you name it - and they don't need a scolding because they carry the teddy bear upside-down. Or sit him in the mud, and then complain that he's dirty.

This is not a comment so much on the start and end of Perrotto's otherwise good essay, but on the whole way some of us bicker and flame one another as the Pirates continue to disgrace the family name.

It's not fair, I think, to blame the fans for not rooting correctly. Or even for having ill-informed expectations. These things should be expected, tolerated, and maybe even encouraged. If you want more mature fans, you have accept the immature ones and retain them over the many years it can take to learn some first principles.

In other news, this team sucks. For example, did you see the bench last night? Mike Edwards, Humberto Cota, and Jose Hernandez. Not much different than Ben Grieve, Benito Santiago, and Abraham Nunez. They did a good job loading up on depth before the season, but it only took a few injuries to return them to this condition.

As soon as the pitchers begin a string of mediocre-to-good starts, the batters will stop scoring runs. That's what I expect. The pitchers can't be this bad much longer, and since the team now lacks several of its best hitters, opposing teams will have no problem avoiding our few good hitters in their best situations.

The only way the Pirates continue to score as many runs as they have been scoring: guys like Jose Castillo and Chris Duffy have to step up and play like stars. That, or the opposing teams have to use only the back end of the bullpen to protect their 7-0 leads.

Game 15: Cardinals at Pirates

The Bucs are bobbing along at six games under .500, the winners of four games in their last eight. Much of the good in the past week came from Craig Wilson, who takes home the NL Player of the Week award for his 10-RBI effort.

Tonight it's Jason Marquis and Paul Maholm.

Concentration and focus

Alan Robinson on the Pirates' coming decision on Ian Snell.

Game 14: Cubs at Pirates

Glendon Rusch and Ian Snell at 1:35pm eastern. With the win yesterday, the Pirates are 4-9, five games under .500.

Cubs blog wrong

Yesterday, Cubs blog The Cub Reporter had a piece titled "What You Need to Know About the Pirates". Overall, it's a fair summary of the Bucs from 1990-present, coming from a non-Pirates-fan. Interestingly, some commenters post haikus. But the second sentence (and the first bold-faced thing you need to know) is: "When their fans close their eyes at night, they see Sid Bream in their nightmares." Then a bit later:

Pinch-hitter Francisco Cabrera, rarely used during the regular season, came up and lined a single to left field -- Justice scored easily, and Bonds came up throwing, trying to get Bream and the piano he was carrying. His throw was just late, as Bream lumbered across the plate representing the winning run. All across western Pennsylvania grown men cried in their Iron Citys and young boys wondered what they had done to make God so mad at them.

Wow. Where to start? First, I've never had Sid Bream nightmares, nor do I know of any other Pirates fans who dream of Bream. I've never had a nightmare that I remember about baseball, but if I did, it'd probably include terrible visions like these. Anyway, one more time, for the record: Bream looked at strike three, so should have never reached first. Bream didn't "lumber across the plate". He slid (carrying piano) and clearly missed home plate with his lead foot. Spanky blocked the trailing leg and tagged Bream's ass out. Thanks for nothing, Randy Marsh. Elsewhere angry young men concluded there was no God.

Casey

Casey's fractures are in a transverse process of one his lower back vertebrae. Not good. No surgery, but out 6-8 weeks. DK points out that (1) Casey now has had three collision-induced injuries in eight months and (2) Casey's 7.5 mil + Wells' 4.2 mil = "nearly a quarter of the team's $47.1 million payroll is on the disabled list."

The Black Knight always triumphs! Have at you! Come on, then.

DK's dug up treasure

From DK's pre-Duke Saturday notebook: "Josh Fogg, released by the Pirates in December, is 2-0 with a 4.67 ERA for the Colorado Rockies. That is twice as many victories as the Pirates' entire rotation."

From DK's Sunday notebook: "The Pirates have two players in the top 80 for all-time strikeouts: Jose Hernandez has 1,353 and ranks 69th. Burnitz has 1,317 -- 15 already this season -- and ranks 80th." In other bad news, Doumit could be DL-bound.

Game 13: Cubs at Pirates

Jerome Williams leads the 6-3 Chicago team against Zach Duke and the 3-9 Pirates.

Piper down

Get well, Sean. Good thing we've still got Craig Wilson.

Update (5:20 PM): Casey out for up to two months with two fractures in his "left lower back". Ouch.

Game 12: Cubs at Pirates

The Cubs start a nine-game road trip tonight, and they've arranged their rotation so they burn none of their top starters on the Pirates. They'll be saved for Los Angeles and St. Louis, their next two destinations. Tonight we get Sean Marshall.

The Pirates, desperate for a win, respond with the current ace of the staff, our stopper, Victor Santos.

Game on at seven eastern. I'll be expecting Aramis Ramirez to misplay a few grounders and hit a few homers. What are you expecting?

Wiggy update

From the comments in the previous thread. If you don't read the comments to this blog, you should. These things are fun, and fun is good. First, skeptic tank:

I am outraged that the Pirates let go and received nothing for a guy who is absolutely on fire for another team so far this year. He's batting .300 with an OPS of 1.116. He has four homers. And he has a fu-manchu and would look really good bowling over opposing team's catchers. I think he goes by the name of Wiggy. Remember him?

Soup:

It looks like they're using Bones' Wiggy-centric playbook for him, too.

Bones:

Wow. Great picture, Soup. That's what I was talking about. If we still had Wiggy we could have had Gerut take some reps at catcher in practice (with Wiggy running the bases of course). You know, since Gerut's gonna have surgery anyway.

My apologies to those who had to read that exchange twice, but the comments do not go out on the feed, and haloscan does not archive our comments, and some things are too good not to share and preserve.

All hail Wiggy. Best of luck to him in Tampa Bay. He sucked for us, yeah, and he'll probably suck for them, but here's hoping.

More than once I've wished for the "Wiggy hook" this season. In fact, it may be all I think about as I watch our starters failing to get the ball across the plate. Man, I wish they could throw strikes.

Bones note: I miss Wiggy. Didn't think I'd ever say that. But all the learned helplessness is effectively combatted by the primal joy derived from watching one of our guys clean somebody's clock every now and then.

Operation Shutdown

Jody Gerut checks out. File this one under Mysteries. Anyone care to figure out who is in the right, who is in the wrong, or what the team should learn from it? I'm not going to worry my beautiful 8-loss-scarred mind about it.

Grrroooan

It's only a flesh wound.

Game 11: Dodgers at Pirates

Looking for win number 4. Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez at noon-thirty eastern. Beautiful, beautiful day too.

Bench depth bumbaye

DK reports Casey is out from that collision with Cota going for the pop-up. Who was pitching at the time? I vaguely remember some talk about him being responsible for air traffic control in such situations.

Casey is someone you want to keep healthy. You could say that about everybody, sure, but his career suggests he's too happy to play maimed. He won't take himself out, and you might not notice he's injured until he's played a month with 600 OPS hitting.

It's good to have a bench comprised of players who are about as good as the starters. The Pirates may always lack the $17M starters, but they can make some of that disadvantage up with superior bench players who start often. With Casey and Randa out, the Pirates suffer little drop-off by starting Wilson and Sanchez. They are only down pinch-hitters for the moment.

Game 10: Dodgers at Pirates

Quick, to the batmobile: Brett Tomko and Paul Maholm at seven eastern.

Get nuts

Q & A time, angry people.

Game 9: Dodgers at Pirates

Seo and Snell at seven eastern.

Keaton

Michael Keaton (aka Batman, Beetlejuice), on Bucs' ownership:

"I fear they will take advantage of the good will of the people who continue to show up ... For my money, that's disrespectful ... at some point, you've got to win. I think fans have been gracious. And maybe not vocal enough. Maybe not vociferous enough with their displeasure."

All hail Keaton! I wholeheartedly support anyone who publicly criticizes the heartless evil losing empire of Mr. McNutting. Honest fans have been getting duped out of their money, and it's just not right. Anyway, my favorite Michael Keaton character is roach-breeding, tenant-from-hell Carter Hayes, in Pacific Heights.

Groan

Sigh.

Game 8: Dodgers at Pirates

Opening day. Odalis Perez and Zach Duke at 1:35pm.

Howdy

All hail Howdy! And happy birthday, young man.

Pirates win!

One foot out of the grave.

... so here's the story of the use of Gonzo in the eighth and Hernandez in the ninth. On the Gonzo announcement, the Reds pinch-hit Freel for Tony Womack. Greg Brown and Bob Walk were under the impression that Tracy was calling on Gonzo for a two-inning save. With a 5-2 lead, Gonzo walked the first batter he faced. Lopez, a switch-hitter, looked weak from that side of the plate and struck out. Gonzalez was throwing about 94. Griffey, a lefty, had a good at-bat ending in a run-scoring double. Gonzo fell behind Dunn, and Jim Colborn went to the mound for a visit. Matt Capps got up in the pen. Gonzo missed, up and in, on a fastball. Dunn took called strikes on 3-0 and 3-1, then whiffed on a breaking ball. Gonzo fell behind 3-0 on Encarnacion, who took a high strike, looking all the way. The crowd booed; Gonzo may have got a call. Encarnacion takes the next pitch, which is a strike. Next he swings and misses and strikes out.

Hernandez got up during the bottom of the eighth with Hatteberg, a lefty, due to bat first.

I'm not sure what Tracy said after the game, but Gonzo did not look sharp. And I wouldn't have wanted him coming back for the ninth to save our first win of the season.

I'd like to see him pitch more often on this coming homestand. He looked rusty tonight. Tracy more or less promised to make an elite closer out of Gonzo when he took the job, so I've no doubt he'll get all the chances sooner or later. Until he's sharp and throwing strikes, if I'm the manager, I wouldn't use him in tie or close games if I had a steadier option.

Game 7: Pirates at Reds

Victor Santos and Dave Williams at 1:15 eastern.

... any roster move predictions to make? I'd bet if they demote someone to add a pitcher, say Brandon Duckworth, it would be Chris Duffy.

Oh and six

Six games under, in my mind, is pretty much six feet under.

The starting pitching has been shit. Casey, Wilson, and Castillo look as good as I hoped and expected. Randa and Burnitz are looking busty. It's too early to panic about them. If I'm Tracy, however, I'd shamelessly ride Craig Wilson's hot bat.

The pitchers should be better than this. And the bullpen too. But maybe not soon. Bad pitching tends to beget bad pitching; tired pitchers are rarely good pitchers. And they are, more often than fresh pitchers, guys getting injuries. There are going to be many sore arms over the rest of this seventeen-game stretch. A few rainouts would help. Otherwise I expect Jim Tracy will be requesting fresh arms from Indianapolis. He can't slag the arms of our young starters on the excuse that they need to save the bullpen.

My Steelers Tea Set

I recently had a birthday (thank you, thank you) and my favorite gift was a box set of Steelers champion beer mug, coffee mug, and shot glass. Rowdietta - now 4 - chose it for me. She knows the Steelers logo on sight (how could she not?) though she won't remember the Super Bowl--she slept through it, curled up in the Morris chair on top of me.

This boxed set made perfect sense to her. "Look Mom!" she said in the store, "a Steelers tea set!" It was her choice of gifts for me.

Anyway, just a word of advice for younger fans: stockpile your XL gear before it's no longer on sale. Terrible towel, t-shirts, mugs, etc. It may seem hokey or overdone now, but take it from me--it could be another ten years before the Steelers make the Super Bowl, and it could be another twenty-five before they win one. Them's a lot of years. While I doubted it would take so long, I wore thin my Steelers: Super Bowl XXX t-shirt.

The coffee mug is already my mug of choice, narrowly eclipsing this one in overall customer satisfaction.

Game 6: Pirates at Reds

Oliver Perez and Aaron Harang scheduled for a 1:15pm EST start.

Game 5: Pirates at Reds

Game at seven. Paul Maholm and some tater-serving Red. Looks rainy. Will they get this in?

In the meantime, the drinking room has some Baltica Porter (7% alcohol), rowdy red beans with Busha Browne's Pukka Hot Pepper sauce, and Madeleine Peyroux, whose two albums are playing to a mixed but generally positive reception.

10:30 PM EST (Bones): Game on. 5-0 Reds after 3. Maholm is getting knocked around. Meanwhile in Texas, Chris Shelton has hit his FIFTH jack.

2006 Steelers schedule

Here it is.

Sep 7 Miami 8:30pm
Sep 18 @Jacksonville 8:30pm
Sep 24 Cincinnati 1:00pm
Week 4 BYE
Oct 8 @San Diego 8:15pm
Oct 15 Kansas City 4:15pm
Oct 22 @Atlanta 1:00pm
Oct 29 @Oakland 4:15pm
Nov 5 Denver 4:15pm
Nov 12 New Orleans 1:00pm
Nov 19 @Cleveland 1:00pm
Nov 26 @Baltimore 1:00pm
Dec 3 Tampa Bay 1:00pm
Dec 7 Cleveland 8:00pm
Dec 17 @Carolina 1:00pm
Dec 24 Baltimore 1:00pm
Dec 31 @Cincinnati 1:00pm

Looks good to me.

I posted the Steelers schedule not to joke about the Pirates, but because the NFL just released it today.

0-4 sucks but not half so much as say 4-14. Four games under is bad. For some reason, six games under is about my threshold for suckitude. I'm not ready to panic.

Though I do wonder how it is that this pitching staff looks worse than the one we had last year.

But how about that schedule? Lots of late games at the start. Many division games at the end. I like it.

Game 4: Pirates at Reds

Ian Snell and Brandon Claussen tonight at 7 pm eastern. I caught some of the Reds' last series, with the Cubs; I expect there will be many runs scored in this series. The Reds are all healthy, so they are dangerous. Adam Dunn is a monster.

... 6:10pm ... rain and more rain in Cincinnati tonight. Could be April rainout #1.

... 7:10 pm (Bones) Game on. Duffy drilled in the back with first pitch of game.

Game 3: More Brewers

Those guys are getting on my nerves. I don't like them. Zach Duke bumbaye? Tonight we begin to see if he was just putting us on with that "can't find my command" act he performed in March.

Bell's Rye Stout

Beer du jour: Bell's Rye Stout. C'est yum.

Game should be on about now, but no, we wait an hour because the Pirates as always are in another time zone. Not to whine about this, but this is the #1 reason I don't like the team in the NL Central. Let central time zone teams play in the central, and eastern time zone teams play in the east. Games should not start later than 7pm whenever possible.

Game 2: Pirates at Brewers

Santos for us. On the one hand, maybe he'll be motivated to show up them Brewers who exposed him to the Rule 5 draft employed him last year. On the other hand, maybe the Brewers know extra well why he's the kind of guy you the Royals expose to the Rule 5 draft.

We'll see. Give 'em hell, Santos.

Sean Casey homers to deep right as I post this. He's now on pace for 81 home runs.

...hey, Craig Wilson starting in right against the lefty. McLouth in center, Doumit behind the plate.

Ollie bumbaye!

Best news of Game 1 was Flaco returning to form. 9 Ks through 5.1, topping out at 93 mph. All hail Ollie!

On a related note, can anyone explain Tracy's decision to not PH for Ollie with the bases loaded in a 2-1 game, only to leave Ollie in for two more batters (and have C-dub never bat)?

MLB audio

Anyone else have problems with the MLB audio today? Instead of hearing innings 3-8.1 of the Bucs game, I got dead air, and occasionally some guy dictating notes about a NCAA basketball tourney video montage. For awhile they had a notice blaming another entity for the problem, an excuse I found neither believable nor acceptable. The game came back in about 30 seconds before the game-ending double play. Thanks, MLB!

Opening day: Pirates at Brewers

Game on. Ollie, bumbaye! He can throw it 82 for all I care -- just get them out.

Littlefield renewed

Yes indeed -- another year on the end of DL's contract. Congratulations Dave.

Slow is the new fast

Sherlock Kovacevic solves the Case of the Missing Velocity in today's Post-Gazette.

Speaking of Tom Glavine, he's not getting those extra inches off the plate in this afternoon's game against the Nationals. It may not be best to push Randy Johnson as the model for Oliver Perez's future success, but Tom Glavine can't be a good idea in this age of Questec.

And speaking of slow, Livan Hernandez is topping off around 82 mph in his opening-day start.

Opening day: Pirates at Brewers

Two o'clock. Oliver Perez and Doug Davis.

The stopgaps

I don't fret as much as some about the one-year proven veteran signings. This is because, one, I'm not one to fret about much of anything, let alone baseball, and two, most of the recent signings have made enough sense to me.

Yet I have to admit that the Joe Randa signing -- when Freddy Sanchez, at the least, was available to play third -- looks extravagant after three thousand words on what the Pirates can do with money in Latin America, the draft, and player development.

Here's the Kovacevic article with this stretch of paragraphs:

One argument against such spending is that this money, if funneled instead to the developmental level, would create an immense pool for signing amateurs.

"With a team like Pittsburgh, that's what I'd be doing," one National League executive said. "At the lower levels, they can compete financially with anyone. Not in the bigs. You're just throwing the money away instead of continuing to build."

Scouting director Ed Creech disagreed.

"There isn't an unlimited amount we can spend," he said. "We have what we need."

Pshaw, Creech, spoken like a company man. Hire another Rene Gayo, better research the Zach Duke types who will go to college because no team will give them the signing bonus they demand. Don't tell us you can't spend more money getting players.

I know the arguments in favor of stopgap signings - I've made them - but they aren't on the tip of my tongue.

... oh yes, here they are. It starts with, I WANT TO WIN NOW, and includes profanity.

Development

In Kovacevic's development report, we learn that Brian Graham more or less deserves an A for his work. Good job, Brian. You the man. The Pirates more or less do the kinds of things I expected and hoped they would be doing.

If you like your stats, here are the numbers:

Of the 17 players the Pirates drafted in the first five rounds in 2000-03, those that might reasonably have been expected to progress under Graham, eight reached the majors or are on a firm track to do so. That 47 percent success rate is better than the historical norm of 41 percent, as researched by Baseball America.

More impressive, perhaps, seven of the 37 players taken in the 20th round or later have made it or still could. That is 19 percent, double the historical norm.

One moral of this story, coming as it does after the drafting story, is the Pirates might do well to raise the bar in the lower rounds. Zach Duke and Nate McLouth are two of the guys padding those good numbers from the 20th round and later.

White and Creech

Kovacevic's report on the state of the Pirates' drafting more or less confirms what we've all figured out on our own: Littlefield fired an outstanding director when he took over the job. And the guy he hired, Ed Creech, has not done as well.

The surprising news here - good news - is the consensus that the Pirates have not underfunded their drafts. McClatchy was even singled out by MLB for signing "too large" checks for low-round draft picks like Zach Duke, Nate McLouth, and Chris Young. Ownership does not look like the cause for the poor drafts that characterized Littlefield's first few years.

The loss of Mickey White figures large in the more compelling arguments I read for the dismissal of David Littlefield or the replacement of ownership. My guess is that Ed Creech will have his day and, if Littlefield made that poor decision from some wrong principle, Littlefield has probably learned his lesson.

What's more, should the ownership turn over or should we get a new GM, I would expect the new person to more or less make the same mistake: clean house, bring in people that are known, and then as fans we'd be stuck watching another group of people set the team back as they learned the ropes.

Before Wilbur jumps in, one could also argue that there's no reason to think Littlefield or Creech are learning from their mistakes.

Me, I think it's more likely a new regime would blunder from the start, than it is likely that the current regime will not get better with time. I look at the Steelers as the model of the patient franchise. I see the Browns as the model of the franchise with too much scapegoating-driven turnover.

You see it how you like. But read this first, and get up on your facts.

Young Dominican Pirates

Dejan Kovacevic's report on the Pirates' expanding presence in Latin America is worth your time. We blather about this topic on the blog pretty often; here are the facts. The situation appears to have gone from good to bad to good again. Unfortunately, the Pirates are paying right now for that middle bad phase.

This passage names names:

Gayo's most expensive signing was Starlin Cespedes, a switch-hitting shortstop from the Dominican whom Gayo likens to a young Tony Fernandez. That was two years ago, and Cespedes turned 16 at the time. His bonus was $90,000 and, according to Gayo, he took less than he was offered by two other teams.

"I've been following that kid since he was 14," Gayo said. "He wanted to stay with us."

Another favorite signing cited by Gayo was first baseman Alex Vargas, also out of the Dominican. He is a left-handed power hitter who "really can rake," Gayo said, comparing his swing to that of David Ortiz.

"These guys, I'm telling you, are on par with the best I signed with Cleveland," Gayo said. "I realize that's a strong statement, but I mean it."

Rene Gayo was hired away from Cleveland. For the Tribe he signed 89 players; twelve (13%) made it to the majors. Jhonny Peralta and Willy Taveras were his signings.

I'm not sure how percentage compares to players drafted, but it must be similar. Say there's a one in four chance, then, that we'll see Cespedes or Vargas make it. Here's to hoping.

If the Pirates are smart, they'll pay Gayo whatever it takes to sign all the best he can. It can't be much longer that Latin America provides such superior value than the regular draft. The Pirates need to make the most of this opportunity while they can.

Opening day epic

Dejan Kovacevic has about 7000 words in today's PG. Plenty more at the Tribune-Review and at John Perrotto's paper. The Bradenton Herald wraps up their coverage of the team as well.

Torres signing

Salomon Torres signed a two year, $6.5 million extension. I agree with Charlie, Pat, and Billy (who bring up Aramis, burning a big pile of money, and Brian Boehringer, respectively) : very bad idea. Way too much money to lock up a 35-36 year old reliever. Anyway, now that it's a done deal and baseball is set to begin tomorrow (!), all hail future Buc/trade bait Salomon Torres!

... Rowdy here. I don't know what was the big idea with signing Torres for '07 and '08. I won't jump to the conclusion that he will overpaid by MLB standards. I just don't know what's the going rate. I do know it has gone up every year, but beyond that, I can't say. And I don't believe the arguments about there being so much "freely available talent." It's nonsense to assert the team would have success if they took any scrub, paid him the minimum, and gave him the primary right-handed set-up job. We saw those guys in camp this spring. Would you really want one of the players we cut in Torres' job? There will be no better options in '07 and '08, I'm sure. Or would you promote Ryan Vogelsong to that job? Get real, I say. And it would be bad roster management to take some of our starting candidates (say, Ian Snell) and convert them to full-time relief work before we're certain they can not go as starters, which are much more needed on any club. Quality relievers are "fungible" and abundant only in fantasy baseball. But why go two more years? I still don't know. I suspect that the Pirates intend to work with Torres and his baseball academy after he retires, and that may be a factor. They may regard his salary as something like an investment in their international scouting department. If so, that might be smart. It also looks like they are rewarding him for past service, when he was, no doubt, paid less than average. If so, that's probably not smart, but perhaps unavoidable if they wish to prevent mutiny. All in all, I don't know enough about the team's financial state to have anything like an informed opinion of whether or not this signing could hurt the team, as I think the Boehringer contract did. But like the rest of you, I scratched my head when I read about it. Like the Wilson re-upping, it strikes me as out of character, and it's further evidence there has been some kind of shift in their financial planning. It could be about selling the team. It could be about the coming new labor agreement. It could be about the Ghost of Christmas Future visiting G. Ogden Nutting last Christmas eve.