Story about Jason Bay from Shi Davidi of the Canadian Press. And one from another Canadian paper, this time in London, Ontario.
Tuesday, March 01, 2005
Perrotto has it measured
Nice work from John Perrotto on the state of the team. I generally agree with him right down the line. Because I think it is possible that Wells and Perez both win fifteen games, I also think it's possible they win half their games.
Not contenders
From Tom Balog's story for Florida's Herald Tribune:
"I don't see us as a contending club at this point," said Dave Littlefield, the Pirates' general manager. "It's certainly something we're working towards. But when you talk about a playoff caliber team, we need to have a lot of people get better. My sense is we're not in that position right now."Well, there you have it.
Stats Geek: Replacing Kendall
Brian O'Neill figures the 2005 Pirates stand to score about as many runs as the 2004 Pirates because they've rid themselves of the "traumatic trio" of Abraham Nunez, Chris Stynes and Randall Simon. Link.
We got catchers
Dejan Kovacevic reports on all the catching prospects in the Bucs' system. "The Pirates will have a genuine catching prospect on nearly every team in its system," he writes. They are Humberto Cota, Ronny Paulino, Ryan Doumit, and Neil Walker. With House out, I anticipate seeing Doumit, 26, or Paulino, 23, catching some for the big club.
Wilson getting better
Ed Eagle's notebook is one of a few stories with the same encouraging news about Jack Wilson.
Pirates to kick ass
Joe Rutter reports the team is taking scrimmages against Valpo and Manatee CC seriously.
Vogelsong's new pitch
Joe Rutter reports. When he came back from winter ball, I vaguely recollect reports that our manager down there wasn't overwhelmed with the effectiveness of this new Ryan. That said, as long as he stays healthy, I expect Vogelsong will find his way to some innings.
So true or false: Vogelsong is the next Jimmy Anderson.
Hamilton, Sharpless, and Holliday
Here is the article Wilbur recommended in the comments last Sunday. It's not about the seventies band responsible for that notorious in-store shopping anthem, "Don't Pull Your Love Out on Me Baby."
Monday, February 28, 2005
John Sickels on Oliver Perez
"Perez's experience, as well as that of Carlos Zambrano, show how Grade C+ pitching prospects can develop unexpectedly, leaving more-heralded guys in the dust." -- John Sickels.
Four steps ahead of you
Primer sends me to this interview with the GM of the Blue Jays over at the Batter's Box, a Blue Jays blog that's been around for quite some time. I once played roto with one of the guys there; for the life of me I forget which one, but he was real gracious.
JP's response strikes me as just about what I'd expect from a GM talking back to his blog.
Sean Burnett
Joe Rutter reports that his rehab has gone well. July sounds like a targeted return date. Will he come back Matt-Morris style, and pitch out of the pen, or will they bring him along as a starter?
Ed Eagle mailbag
Includes "How to be a GM" by David Littlefield.
I can't believe, in this day and age, that David didn't suggest that starting a blog was a good first step. (That's a joke, people.)
Sunday, February 27, 2005
More news, AQL
I'm burning up my eyeballs trying to choose and shop for a flat-panel monitor online. My current system (a Pismo) is about 125 years old in computer years and it's time to update before OS X destroys the system's memory-strapped hard drive. I've somewhat narrowed the field to the Samsung Syncmaster 910T, the Dell 1905FP, 2001FP, or 2005FPW, or the Viewsonic VP201B. I'm looking for something that will last as long as the system I'm preparing to buy (a dual 2.0 G5 w/ upgraded (retail) graphics card). LCD flat panels are evolving at a dizzy pace. Prices dropping, specs improving, it's pretty damn hard to choose, esp. since I can't make up my mind about how much TV/DVD/video I'll watch on it. Could I use MLB.tv to watch archived games? Like maybe the West Coast ones that end at 2am? Don't talk to me about Tivo--I don't have cable TV and have no interest in it. Cable modem is plenty for me.
Since I've been on the computer way more than I'd like, reading crap I don't normally read, I'll do the Sunday Bucco news roundup AQL (all quick-like).
Ed Eagle reports on Ollie, Duke, Bullington, Winters, House, Grabow, Mackowiak (as a defensive-replacement first-baseman). I think No. 3 will get another 550 PAs this year.
Dejan Kovacevic on closer-in-waiting Mike Gonzalez. No, Billy, you can't have him.
Oh wait. John Perrotto touts Koonce. And regarding Byrnes: "The Athleticss are holding out for a top pitching prospect such as left-handers Zach Duke or Tom Gorzelanny or right-hander Ian Snell." MG, ZD, TG, IS. Whatever. I say wait a month to see what develops.
Joe Rutter on Ollie and Ian Snell.
Kovacevic reports on Bobby Hill and Kip Wells. Hill's core strength thing is mandatory for a guy with his history of back problems.
Kovacevic updates on centerfield job, fifth starter job, bullpen jobs, Matt Peterson, Mark Redman, and Braden River HS, where some believe a Barracuda outfit would look cuter on a cheerleader than a Pirate outfit.
Joe Rutter on McClatchy. Many quotes there.
Rob Biertempfel offers a dissertation on pitch counts. Why run this now, Rob? We could have used this a month ago. Or maybe in two months when some youngster needs to nurse his wing. It's hard to give this the attention it deserves at the start of camp.
Saturday, February 26, 2005
Mega-news
The beat reporters continue to fan out and cover everything. No repetition of profiles today.
Not a lot of time or inclination for much comment, so here's a collection of links, in no particular order.
Dejan Kovacevic catches us up on Mike Johnston.
Kovacevic's notebook describes the horror story that was House's shoulder. DK also confirms Jim Sullivan's report that Mackowiak looks great in the batting cage.
Joe Rutter reports on Freddy Sanchez, who is expected to win Abraham Nunez's old job.
Ed Eagle describes the world according to Bryan Bullington. Eagle addresses the B.J. Upton thing directly.
For the Bradenton Herald, Jim Brockman describes the likely roles of Matt Lawton and Mark Redman.
The AP revisits Albie Lopez and we get more details about Althete's Performance and Mark Verstegen.
Ed Eagle writes that Joe Roa is hurt.
Joe Rutter has a Jack Wilson update.
For the Tribune-Review, Jim Rodenbush writes about McClatchy's liking for NHL owners. McClatchy's name gets misspelled in the headline; I'm sure they'll fix that sooner or later. McClatchy's right that Reggie Sanders was a far better deal for the Bucs than the fat Zero Halliburton case they had to offer Burnitz.
Friday, February 25, 2005
McLouth and Duffy
Dejan Kovacevic describe McLouth and Duffy for the PG. I needed that, not knowing much so about them. The photos are good too.
Coach Mesa
Joe Rutter profiles Mesa for the T-R.
Next year, how much will he make if returns as a coach?
Exploding Eldred
Wow.
Circle March 3--the day we'll get our first Spring Training broadcast. Pirates vs. Yankees.
Thursday, February 24, 2005
Wilson / Ward
MLB.com's Jim Molony has this spirited take on the first base situation.
Littlefield sums up the fairly obvious balance going on between Tike Redman and Daryle Ward:
"If Ward really takes off, we'd certainly love his left-handed bat in our park, and Wilson's ability to play the outfield ties into that flexibility," Pirates general manager Dave Littlefield said. "Bay will play every day, [Matt] Lawton will play every day and Craig Wilson will play every day. Depending on what we see from [Tike] Redman and what we see from Ward will determine whether they're playing more."
The better Ward plays, the more likely Bay will play center. The better Redman plays, the more likely Wilson will play first. I'm not sure what the odds are that each of those guys will have a productive year but 50-50 may not be too optimistic. I buy into the flexibility concept Littlefield preaches on every corner.
Anybody with a computer can figure this out
So Wehner will be the new color guy. Ed Eagle writes it up.
Matt Lawton is ready to score some runs, Eagle also reports. There and in an AP report, McClendon talks about not using him as a leadoff hitter:
"We're a better club if somebody steps up and says, "I can do this,' and performs at a high level in the leadoff spot," McClendon said. "That pushes Matt down in the order and allows him to drive in more runs, which he is capable of doing. For that to happen, though, somebody has to step up."Nice photo of Mac with that one. When's the last time a manager sported a cane on the field? As for the quote in question, I wonder if he's thinking about Tike Redman in particular. Or maybe he's just trying to emphasize that Lawton can hit for power. Dejan Kovacevic writes about Lawton, too, and that's one of the themes of his handicraft. Rutter also wrote about Lawton.
Kovacevic reports that Maz likes the team and misses Nellie.
The pitchers put the position players away in the first live batting practice. Also in that report: Ed Eagle counts three open spots on the 40-man roster with guys moving to the 60-day disabled list eventually.
Dejan Kovacevic more or less reports that the As want Mike Gonzalez in any deal for Byrnes:
Oakland will not consider a trade for outfielder Eric Byrnes unless it receives immediate bullpen help. The Pirates have exchanged names with Oakland, but the Athletics are believed to be reluctant to part with him.OK, so he didn't write anything about Gonzalez. I'm just guessing. You don't think they'll settle for Jose Mesa?
Seriously, the As have been stockpiling bullpen guys--the better to trade away, Mike Williams-style, over the course of the season, I suppose. Why not mint a bunch of closers and trade them for other players? The Cubbies may wind up with Dotel after all.
Joe Rutter has a longer essay on the Byrnes negotiations. Byrnes has some good lines. Among them:
Byrnes has been aware of the myriad of rumors.Joe Roderick covers the Captain America story for Knight-Ridder. He gets the same quotes, but a little different:"It's hard not to be because I have family and friends all over the country," he said. "Anybody with a computer can read everything that's going on. It's not like I'm searching for it. At the same time, whenever you have people bringing up what seems like a different rumor every day, it's tough not to listen."
"There's a little truth in everything," he said. "Obviously there has been a lot going on. It's been going on all offseason.Roderick puts any trade on a late-March timetable. "If there is a trade, it may not happen until late in spring training, after the A's get a look at outfielder Charles Thomas, who was acquired from the Atlanta Braves in the Tim Hudson deal," he writes. "They'd also like to get an extended look at Bobby Kielty, a backup last season." I'd think the Bucs would also want a look at Darlye Ward, Tike Redman, Ben Grieve, and the young guys who will be vying for those open spots on the 40-man roster. BayInsider.com reports Ken Macha saying he "has a logjam in the outfield." The As have starting center fielder Mark Kotsay, Eric Byrnes, Charles Thomas and Bobby Kielty heading into the spring. That doesn't really sound like a logjam to me, but I'll take Ken's word for it."Honestly, the way I look at is if I get traded, I'll be going to a team that really wants me to play for them. As a player that's all you can really ask for. At this point, wherever I play this year, I will be playing for a team that wants me. That's also true if I stay with the A's. If I stay here and they end up not trading me, I think they will want me to be here.
"I have family and friends all over the country. Anyone with a computer can read all the stuff and figure it out. When you have people bringing up a new rumor every day, it's tough not to listen."
Pictures. Here's a picture of Benito and Mac. And one of Ian Snell. I'm guessing Ian Snell could be immediate bullpen help. The PG has this collage of minor-league vanity tags. And pitchers doing some kind of dance. And Ollie putting on makeup. And Matt Lawton showing off his cannon. Yes, that's safe for work people.
Wednesday, February 23, 2005
All hands on deck
The whole team reports today in Bradenton.
Dejan Kovacevic reports that team will be treated to their first live batting practice and speeches from Mac and David Littlefield. Nice.
Braden River High voted to be the Pirates. This mascot edged out "the Barricudas."
Kelsie McLean and Brittany Funderburk voted for the Barracudas and the electric blue, black and silver colors, thinking they would for make for cuter cheerleader outfits. The future sophomores had rivalry from Brittany's dad Reggie Funderburk, who favored the Pirates.High drama."Considering the area and the Pirates town affiliation, I think that would be the best," Reggie Funderburk said.
Also out there this morning is the whole Ben Grieve thing. Ed Eagle may have started it with this article. Here's a link to an AP version, unsigned but perhaps by Alan Robinson, who often covers Pittsburgh sports for the AP.
Finally, another Dejan Kovacevic Q & A. He advises financial discipline and falls into the save-the-money-for-Ollie school. I wish I could be so confident that the likely long-term scenarios will develop as we expect them. I want to see the team do all they can to win this year. They appear to have a chance now. And they've put in quite a few rebuilding seasons. At some point that has to stop. I'd end it now. God only knows what could happen to our players between now and next March. I think it sounds wise to talk about saving money for next year - really, it does - but I'm not convinced that it's really the best course of action. We can all disagree on this and there will be plenty of time to debate it going forward.
Don't miss the exchange between Wilbur Miller and Dejan Kovacevic toward the end. And the link to the television market size information.
Tuesday, February 22, 2005
Captain America
Don't miss today's work from the illustrious John Perrotto. It's only February and he's in mid-season form.
Good snark in this essay. For one, I'm not certain he writes his own headlines, but he gets a fork in with today's regardless, recalling bad mid-1980s Van Halen while insinuating that the GM has a man-crush on Eric Byrnes. And for two, the last line of this paragraph is classic:
Byrnes has been a rather anonymous player in Oakland the past five seasons while such stars as Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, Eric Chavez and the Big Three of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito were helping the Athletics blow holes in a theory that Pirates' ownership seems to cling to - low-revenue teams can't compete for or win division titles. Oakland has done it without even having a new stadium paid for primarily with tax money.Perrotto's wry humor is much appreciated here at the junto. There's nothing worse than humorless sports journalism. So put a little Bailey's in that coffee and all hail John Perrotto.
As always, I learn something new from Perrott. If I ever knew this, I forgot it long ago:
Pirates General Manager Dave Littlefield has been calling his Oakland counterpart, Billy Beane, on a daily basis in an attempt to make his second trade in four months with the man who tried to hire him as the Athletics' assistant GM five years ago. Littlefield remained in his job as Florida's assistant GM before coming the Pirates in 2001 but he and Beane have always been able to have an easy dialogue.I didn't know Beane courted Littlefield back in 2001. The massive criticism of Littlefield from the Heathers of Sabermetric High might lead one to believe he graduated from cross-town rival Australopithecus Vo-Tech.
To get back to all that really matters. Perrotto on Byrnes:
More than anything, Byrnes is known for his entertaining style of play. One scout who has watched him frequently says "he does everything at full speed all the time and throws his body around like he's a crash-test dummy."In the end, Perrotto endorses the pursuit of Captain America:Byrnes regularly plays winter ball in the Dominican Republic and his hard-charging ways have earned him the nickname of "Captain America" from fans on that island nation. His production is strong enough that it would bolster a batting order than falls off sharply after the top four of Matt Lawton, Jack Wilson, Bay and Craig Wilson.
Littlefield should continue his pursuit of Byrnes. With the hopes of trading for Cincinnati's Austin Kearns or Tampa Bay's Aubrey Huff unrealistic, the list of available outfielders is slim with the New York Mets' Mike Cameron and Washington's Terrmel Sledge the names most prominently mentioned.Hear hear. Kearns must be unavailable for many reasons, Huff is not a perfect fit, Cameron carries a ludicrous contract, and Sledge reminds me of J.J. Davis. I would trade mad pitching prospects for Byrnes. We all know that a Byrnes in the hand is worth two in the bush leagues.Cameron is a fine defensive center fielder and coming off a 30-homer, 22-steal season. Cameron, though, has the same shortcomings as many other Pirates' hitters. He doesn't get on base enough and strikes out too much. Now 32, it's doubtful he is going to improve in those areas.
Sledge had a decent rookie season last year, hitting .269 with 15 homers and 62 RBIs in 133 games but he turns 28 next month, leaving him with little upside.
Byrnes clearly is the best option, which means Beane can keep expecting daily phone calls from Littlefield.
But thank God I'm not the GM. I wear my heart on my sleeve, man, I know that. I have no kind of poker face. I routinely pull the trigger on roto trades before the talks fully mature. Since I'm bullish on the Bucs' chances this year, and doubtful that 2006 holds greater promise at this point, I'd deal some of those young arms. And Freddy Sanchez. I'd trade him too. Hell, trade everybody. That's my philosophy.
But a Byrnes trade can wait. We have a number of guys who could make it seem less necessary. Maybe Ben Grieve, Daryle Ward, Tike Redman, Rob Mackowiak, or one of the Indy Indian crew will play like a man possessed in March. Littlefield can wait if Beane's trade demands include more than he wants to deal. If an injury to the Oakland outfield rules out trading Byrnes, so might some other combination of circumstances make other players available.
Necessity never made a good bargain.
The Best Leadoff Hitter in Baseball
Mike Christensen of Mississippi's Clarion-Ledger profiles Gulfport native Matt Lawton. Shapiro called him "the best leadoff hitter in baseball," probably just as he was dealing him. Lawton's another one of our players with critics to refute. "It's like he got old real quick," a scout said, according to that report. They should give him a locker near Ye Olde Fountaine of Youthe.
Hurricane Wehner
Candidate for the color job, Joe Rutter reports. So does Bob Smizik, who adds Sid Bream to the list. Sid Bream? What, was Francisco Cabrera unavailable?
Return of Stats Geek
Welcome back, Brian O'Neill.
Just curious: does Ollie look as good if you rank them by strikeouts per batter faced? K/9 notoriously favors high-walk guys.
Kendall, Wells, Bautista even
Ed Eagle has the news.
Wells is the man.
Eagle reports that a lot of people spent some of Monday debating whether or not there was "friction" between Kendall and Littlefield. And I thought we were fools for debating whether or not the pitchers were running a fast mile in February.
Get a grip, people. Jason Kendall is ancient history.
Indy rotation
Dejan Kovacevic counts the young guys probably headed for AAA:
Management's early projection for the five-man rotation includes left-handers Zach Duke, 21, and Cory Stewart, 24; and right-handers Bryan Bullington, 24; Ian Snell, 23; and Bobby Bradley, 24. Other possibilities include left-hander Dave Williams, 26, should he fail to win the fifth starter's job in Pittsburgh, and right-hander Matt Peterson, 23, should he merit a promotion from Class AA.Not bad.
Monday, February 21, 2005
Monday M*A*S*H stuff and more
J.R. House shuts it down. Joe Rutter's report.
Ollie takes it easy, Dejan Kovacevic reports.
Kovacevic also reports that Todd Ritchie won the nine-pitcher one-mile run with a time of 6:21. 6:21?? It's been a while since I ran a mile. Maybe gravity has changed since then. Or maybe they changed they way they keep time. Is that Canadian minutes? Otherwise, that's a pretty lame time for a one-mile run.
Start slow, fellas. Those aren't bad times considering that the key to winning the marathon is running each mile faster than the previous one.
Or maybe not. I'm not sure where I learned that maxim. It sounds kinda dumb this morning.
Albie Lopez looks fit and trim, Joe Rutter reports, but not so fit and trim he could beat Todd Ritchie in the mile. Maybe he wasn't in that race. Dejan Kovacevic also writes up the comeback. So does Ed Eagle. Are these guys sitting around in the bar and helping each other with their homework? I'm often curious about why much the same story appears in all the papers on the same day. Maybe Albie went out of his way to talk to those guys and give them something to report. Whatever. I've always been a fan of Albie Lopez. Hopefully we can get a good year out of him.
The New York Post profiles Rick Peterson who is, I just learned, is the son of Hardng Peterson.
And speaking of Harding Peterson, Bill Ranier and David Finoli have a new book on the 1979 Pirates coming out next month from McFarland.
Sunday, February 20, 2005
Charles Johnson
A friend of mine in Arizona says he saw a guy that looks like Charles Johnson out in the parking lot. He had little voodoo dolls of Benito Santiago, Humberto Cota, and J.R. House. He was slamming the car door on J.R. House's shoulder.
Not cool, Charles.
Just let him play or It'll play itself out
Here's a tale of two players and two teams: The Rockies look to hand a third-base job to unproven Garrett Atkins. They appear to justify that with the theory that he'll graft better to the bigs if he doesn't have to worry about his job. The Phillies - or at least Charlie Manuel - talk like Placido Polanco has every chance to beat out Chase Utley at second base.
These two examples could be used to illustrate opposing managerial philosophies. One school says bring them along slowly and then give them lots of time and support. The other school says make everyone earn their playing time.
I'm definitely in the Charlie Manuel camp. It's not because I'm an advocate of "tough love." Not at all. It's because if I was a baseball player, I'd play it that way. I wouldn't want any preferential treatment. No special favors. And every day, even if I was an established regular, I'd go out there thinking, "one of these young guys could take my job if I don't do this or if I stop doing that." Like Bill James, I'd look at myself and my game and my record in the worst possible light. You always want to be on top of the "worst possible light" interpretation of your work.
Then there is the whole team concept. I'd understand that it was my job to groom my (eventual) replacement. After all, the earth could split open tomorrow and I could fall in. And my team would be without a replacement who is as good as he might have been had I done my duty and coached him here and there when I had the chance. The smart player, even if he is just looking after his own self-interest, understands that a rising tide lifts all boats. How do you make the big bucks? Play on a team that goes to the playoffs. How do you make the playoffs? Buy into the team concept.
So that's just the way it is. With the amount of money the players make these days, no one should be crying about job security. If you can't bring your A game because some older guy or some younger guy is playing well and threatening to take your job, then you should go be an insurance salesman. Because that's no kind of pressure to crack under. Even at the minor-league minimum, dudes are still making six to ten times more than the people they went to high school with -- if their former classmates have full-time work. You'd think that if you had a job that gave you a six-to-ten year headstart, financially, on your peers, you'd think then you wouldn't cry about how you can't play without a security blanket.
My guess is the majority of players would understand what I'm saying. Over the years I've read a lot of editorials by fans who think that teams have messed with so-and-so's development. Or they didn't give so-and-so a fair 300 at-bats to prove that his .111 batting average was just a fluke. I once felt that way about Chad Hermansen. Maybe a guy can yo-yo from level to level too quickly. There could be something to it. Perhaps the timing of promotions and demotions makes a difference. I'm not sure. But more and more I think the good players will make the most of their chances. And the bad players will make excuses.
I suspect the real reasons the Rockies are handing the job to Atkins have nothing to do with not troubling his beautiful mind with competition. They may spin it like they are clever, but all they are really doing is covering their own backs if he flops. "Don't blame us - we gave him a fair chance." And they are covering up the fact that he's a big question mark and they've done little to protect themselves if they lose him to injury or if he just plain sucks in March and April. I guess (a) the Rockies don't have anyone to compete with him and (b) the Rockies have no plans to acquire someone to compete with him if he tanks in April and May. Seeing what they have in the minors, it's hard to blame them for believing the third base situation will take care of itself sooner or later regardless of what Atkins does with his guaranteed half-year of playing time.
Where am I going with this? It all bears on the Tike Redman story unfolding this weekend. Joe Rutter and Dejan Kovacevic both have stories today in which Tike Redman says some things about his disappointment in the team for seeking another outfielder.
I don't blame Tike for any of his comments, though he doesn't look good to me. He doesn't have a lot of experience talking to the media and then seeing how his comments will look and play in the newspaper. I don't think there was one story in all of 2004, in either the PG or the T-R, where he was the main character.
To make a long story short, Tike Redman has done nothing to prove that he deserves a huge chunk of playing time in 2005. I would not be afraid of giving him PT, but I would also be working hard to make sure I don't start the season with the assumption that he's going to get 450 at-bats or more if anyone gets hurt. He had his Garrett Atkins year in 2004. The team stuck with him. If the team brings in a Placido Polanco, Tike Redman should suck it up like Chase Utley. If he's as good as he thinks he is, he can be confident that all the world will see that when the games begin.
I'll all about acquiring Byrnes. He's not expensive, he's good, he could be getting better, he's at least as good if not better than the other options we're looking at right now. The folks in Oakland love the guy. He'll fit right in here. I'd be happy to deal pitching prospects for him. I'm not sure which ones I'd deal, but pitching prospects generally have a lot more trade value the year before they debut than they have the year after they debut. Sell high.
One last thing: If Kip and Ollie are healthy and taking their turns in early April, this is the Pirates' year. We talked about this before the Steelers' season got going. When teams are getting better, they arrive sooner than expected. The Bucs are under everyone's radar this year. If we get Byrnes and 60 starts from Ollie and Kip, I think we have an 85-win team, or better with a break or a two, and I think the Bucs are looking at a good chance of making the playoffs. We can talk about 2006 later. Right now I'm looking at 2005 and I like what I see.
Saturday, February 19, 2005
Assorted Saturday readings
Joe Rutter reports the Pirates have given the As a list of players for Eric Byrnes. Rutter suggests that it's down to Beane picking the two he wants from the list.
No worries about the outfield depth. You always need more players than you appear to need.
Dejan Kovacevic describes Neil Walker's experience in his first big-league camp. Walker appears to be wearing a goalie's mask as he catches in the photo associated with the story. Perhaps that's what caught Kovacevic's eye.
Joe Rutter profiles Mark Redman.
The Padres are making plans for their home opener, lining up Jake Peavy to face the Pirates.
Friday, February 18, 2005
Redman blames poor defense on steroids
Incredible.
"Me, I've never done steroids. Everything I do is natural," he said. "But some guys, they come out there and hitting these bombs and these liners to the gaps like ... as soon as the ball comes off the bat, you can't move quick enough. It's already by you. I'm not talking about the moon-shot home runs. I'm talking about the line drives. You wouldn't believe it."
That and other fun stuff in Dejan Kovacevic's new article.
Real news
All hail the start of Spring Training. Dejan Kovacevic has a bunch of goodies in his bag today.
If the Bucs could get 35 starts each from Kip Wells, Ollie Perez, Mark Redman, and Josh Fogg, then they win the NL Central.
They also win the NL Central if they can manage to score 1000 runs.
Thursday, February 17, 2005
Playoffs
Winners of the last five championships: Boston (2nd place, AL East, 98 wins), Florida (2nd place, NL East, 91 wins), Anaheim (2nd place, AL West, 99 wins), Arizona (1st place, NL West, 91 wins), New York (1st place, AL East, 87 wins). These teams have won 100 games in the last five years: New York (101 wins, 2004), St. Louis (105 wins, 2004), New York (101 wins, 2003), Atlanta (101 wins, 2003), San Francisco (100 wins, 2003), New York (103 wins, 2002), Oakland (103 wins, 2002), Atlanta (101 wins, 2002), Seattle (116 wins, 2001), Oakland (102 wins, 2001), Not one of those teams won a championship. Do we really believe that they weren't as good a team as the teams that won the championship?
For a look at the standings, click here for 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000.
The playoff tournament is a great way to decide who gets to take home the big trophy and who gets to wear expensive jewelry. It's very exciting. But do we honestly think that it perfectly measures the overall quality of the teams? Does the best team always advance, or can an inferior team catch a break or two and beat a better team in a five-game LDS?
All the teams that make the playoffs, in baseball, are very good. But the best team doesn't necessarily win the championship. Yes? Each of the top four or five teams has about an equal chance of winning the big prize. And the lesser wild card teams also have a chance to win the big prize.
You'll never hear a GM or a player say this. But that doesn't mean the fans may not realize this is true. The playoffs are more or less a crapshoot of the NBA lottery variety.
Perrotto somewhat optimistic
He thinks it through for us here.
The offense should be better because, on average, the returning players should be better.
Mac speaks
Dejan Kovacevic interviews the manager.
Q: Center field appears to be your area of greatest uncertainty. If you had to predict, how might that play out?I suppose that means no Jason Bay in center.A: I sure couldn't give you an answer right now. We've got Tike Redman, Rob Mackowiak and ... if Dave can find anything on the market, that would be a piece. Other than that, we don't have anybody else who is going to compete for that job.
Wednesday, February 16, 2005
More Alan Robinson
More Alan Robinson. Mac has some good lines:
"I feel good about this club," said Lloyd McClendon, who is in his fifth season as manager but was a Barry Bonds teammate when the Pirates last were winners. "I've told people it's the first time I don't feel like we've got an Abbott and Costello skit going - you know, who's on first and what's on second?"Spoken like a true politician.After presiding over several spring training camps that seemed more like open tryouts, McClendon welcomes back each of last season's everyday regulars - except Kendall - and four of five starting pitchers.
The downside, of course, is this is nearly the same team that finished 72-89 last season, so far behind NL Central-winning St. Louis - 32 1/2 games - that Pittsburgh was virtually out of the division race by May.
"But this certainly is a good feeling," McClendon said. "This is my fifth year, but it's the first time I won't feel like a politician, having to sell this club."
Robinson is factually wrong when he argues that the Pirates were eliminated from the division race by May. On May 1, they were 2 1/2 games out. Did he mean by the end of May? Six games out, and two games under .500. And we all remember how well they played in July, until Benson was dealt.
I think Robinson must have just made that up. And given that the returning players were all young and improving, the argument that "this was a 72-win team" doesn't strike me as thoughtful. Whatever. The lower the expectations, the less likely we'll be disappointed. Good work, Alan Robinson.
Q & A with Dejan Kovacevic
Dejan Kovacevic serves another hockey-laden question and answer session. Go read. We're lucky to have him.
McClendon on the hot seat?
Last year at least one writer predicted McClendon would be the first manager fired in 2004. Then, on Opening Day, he was extended. Now we get another, similar prediction. Did the author just make this up, or is there more to the Ken Macha rumblings reported last week by Perrotto?
Tuesday, February 15, 2005
Zach Duke, Kip Wells
The AP's Alan Robinson covers the capable Zach Duke in all your papers today:
Duke wasn't considered to have major league potential while growing up in Midland, Texas, because his fastball peaked at a below-average 88 miles per hour while in high school. He has since picked up about 4 mph in velocity, and was chosen recently by Baseball America as the Pirates' top prospect.Duke impressed Spin Williams during the Pirates' minicamp in Bradenton last month with a sweeping curveball that left-handed hitters rarely touch and a more-than-adequate changeup. Left-handers batted only .192 with one homer against Duke last season.
The Pirates hope the 6-foot-2, 205-pound Duke can add another mile per hour or two onto his fastball as he matures. They're taking Duke to spring training partly because they want him to experience a major league clubhouse and to pitch to big league hitters during exhibition games.
Let's not trade this guy. Especially because Robinson quotes Spin on Kip this way:
"Kip is the biggest question mark in the rotation right now," Spin Williams said.I don't know what to think about Kip and his health. Is he OK? Not OK? Does anyone know? Nothing to do but wait and see.
Redman and Castillo
Ed Eagle answers questions.
Some points to look at:
The team's biggest concern with Redman is his defense in center field. Although he has improved in this area since 2001, Redman still has a tough time getting jumps on balls hit toward the gaps. There were several occasions last season when this turned what would have been outs for most center fielders with Redman's speed into doubles or triples that rolled into the North Side notch at PNC Park. It also doesn't help that Tike possesses a below-average throwing arm.If Redman repeats this performance in 2005, and if Matt Lawton is half as bad, defensively, as some Cleveland fans claim, can you imagine the number of triples we'll see in 2005? Yikes. I expect Lawton's offense will more than compensate for whatever deficiencies appear in his defense. I'm less confident with Tike Redman. Also:
In my opinion, Castillo is more talented than the other two and he should have no problem keeping his job as the starting second baseman. I expect Castillo to be the team's most improved player in 2005. He is already an excellent defensive player and his bat showed signs of increased power potential at the end of last season and during his time in the Venezuelan Winter League.If Castillo doesn't jump forward this year, I expect it will happen next year. He's the guy I'd pick as the biggest breakout candidate too. But the odds of a real breakout can't be more than 1 in 3 or 1 in 2.
Monday, February 14, 2005
Nellie Briles
While we have the Encyclopedia open, let's look up Nellie Briles, who died Sunday.
It was his performance in Game 5 of the [1971] Fall Classic for which he will always be remembered. The Bucs had just won Games 3 and 4 to pull even with the Orioles in the series and manager Danny Murtaugh called on Briles to send them back to Baltimore with the lead. The 28-year-old pitcher did not disappoint, as he completely dominated the Birds, two-hitting them in the 4-0 win. The one memory from every Pirate fan who recalls the game is the scene of Nellie falling on his face off the mound after several pitches. This was a constant thing throughout his career, as Briles would throw hard and end up on the ground. . . .He had other talents.
As his pitching career was budding, so was his new career as a singer. Nellie played several nightclubs and got to the point where he was starring in shows with such actresses as Kaye Ballard in Chicago. Nellie was so accomplished that he was invited to sing the National Anthem before Game 4 of the 1973 World Series.
Coach Wagner
Jingoist asked a good question in the comments thread for the 1941 photo of old Honus Wagner with the team (scroll two posts down for the link). He wanted to know how long Wagner was associated with the team. I went to the Pittsburgh Pirates Encyclopedia by David Finoli and Bill Ranier and found this answer:
Wagner stayed on with the Pirates as a coach until 1952, although in later years the designation was part-time and he seldom made road trips after 1942. During his years as a coach, Wagner developed a grandfatherly persona and became known for telling tall tales and spending time with children. . . .Wagner's legend continued to grow during his coaching days, helped along by his own gift for spinning a yarn. It is said that during a threatened players' strike in 1946 Pirates owner William Benswanger claimed he would "play seventy-four-year-old Honus Wagner at shortstop" rather than forfeit a game. The story goes that an elderly gentleman flew from North Carolina with his grandson to Pittsburgh, hoping the lad would get a chance to see Honus play. . . .
In failing health, Wagner attended the dedication of a statue in his honor of April 30, 1955 in Schenly Park outside his former ballyard. Although he passed away on December 6 that year, the statue has kept his contributions in the minds of fans at Forbes, then Three Rivers Stadium and now at PNC Park. It is still a common meeting place for fans going to watch his favorite team.
This is a great book to be reading when there's not much else to occupy your baseball-addicted mind.
Summertime
We're not a big fan of defensive statistics articles. Not on Monday mornings and not so much on days that are made for love. That said, they could be worth the trouble. Will someone please read this essay on Defensive Regression Analysis by Michael Humphreys of the Hardball Times and tell us what it says?
In the meantime, me and Rowdy Jr. are mellow with "Summertime" from the Ray Charles and Cleo Laine Porgy & Bess soundtrack. All hail Leeeny for turning us on to it.
Summertime
And the living is easy
Fish are jumpin'
And the cotton is high
Oh, your daddy's rich
And your mama's good lookin'
So hush little baby now
Don't you cry
One of these mornin's
You're gonna rise up singin'
Then you'll spread your wings
And take to the sky
But til that mornin'
Ain't nothin' can harm you
With your daddy
And your mammy
Standin' by
Rowdy Jr. loves this tune. Around here we skip all the Baby Mozart Sleep Sound in Jesus Lullaby Earth Welcoming Baby and go right for the good stuff. Life is too short to do otherwise.
Other Rowdy Jr. favorites: Charlie Parker, "Hootie Blues," Miles Davis, "My Funny Valentine," Red Allen, "Sweet Lorraine" and "I Cover the Waterfront," Django Rhinehart, "Improvisation on 'Pathetique'," Roy Milton, "So Tired," Taj Mahal & Toumani Diabate, "Tunkaranke," and Peggy Lee / Benny Goodman, "Ev'rything I Love." The boy is five months old and that's what we find on his iPod playlist.
Sunday, February 13, 2005
1941 Pirates team photo on ebay
Check out Coach Wagner and the 1941 uniforms. Nice supersize version too.
XM radio, DirecTV Extra Innings, MLB TV
This comment thread just discussed getting the Pirates on your TV if you live outside the Pittsburgh area.
I prefer baseball on the radio to baseball on television for lots of reasons I won't get into here. I've done enough ranting about television on this site to last at least another year or two.
Every year I subscribe to the radio broadcasts from MLB.com. I enjoy surfing the different broadcasts when the Pirates aren't on the radio. Does anyone have any experience with the XM radio deal? It looks to me like you can listen to all the broadcasts of all the games. Is this the same thing as GameDay audio, with (I hope) better sound quality? Are the commercials muted as they are in GameDay audio (a feature that I love)? Is this on the same service that carries all the football games? What else do you get with XM radio that's worth the coin?
While we're at it, is there anything else to add or ask about the Extra Innings or MLB TV packages?
Sunday funny papers
John Perrotto has the scoop:
The Pittsburgh Pirates have inquired about trading for Mets center fielder Mike Cameron in recent weeks but New York does not want to pay any of the $12.5-million left on the final two years of his contract. The Pirates have tried to entice the Mets to eat some salary by offering pitching prospects, though it is unclear which ones.Two things here. First, confirmation that yeah, the Bucs are going after Cameron. I wonder how the Benson trade has or has not eased relations between the two clubs. They got Keppinger. They can't complain. If Cameron's owed almost $13M for two years, obviously the Bucs have to get the Mets to pay about half. Cameron is a huge question mark and the Mets signed him for a ridiculously high wage. Even at $7M per year, I doubt he's a great value. I'd pass if I'm Littlefield. Save the money to acquire a player from a team that unexpectedly tanks and throws it into Rebuild to save face in June.Oakland manager Ken Macha, a former Pirates catcher/infielder, turned down a three-year contract extension offer and likely won't return to the Athletics next season. Macha, who lives in Murrysville, would likely become the leading candidate for the Pirates' job if they don't pick up Lloyd McClendon's contract option for 2006.
This could shape up as a big season for Joe Liggins. I'm one of those people who believe that a change of manager, like a change of lineup, doesn't make much if any difference. The only exception is when there are some kind of personality conflicts or philosophic differences between the manager and the GM that results with some kind of unusual incompetence filling out the lineup card--say the manager just won't play some rookie that he finds disrespectful, or he won't use players in the roles for which the GM acquired them; then a team might change dramatically by replacing him. When managers are made into scapegoats, that often compounds the underlying problems with a team by creating the illusion that things will be different. Anyway, Macha has a good reputation and now we'll see if his name continues to bounce around as a possible replacement for the current skipper.
Dejan Kovacevic and Joe Rutter both have twin features preparing the reading public for the upcoming spring. Dejan echoes Perrotto's reporting that the Bucs are "aggressively pursuing a trade to upgrade the outfield and to add a starting pitcher". I also admire the subtitle of that piece, "With a handful of young players like Wilson, Bay and Perez just establishing themselves, talk of a better year for Pirates may not be nonsense." Talk about setting the bar low.
Kovacevic and Rutter both offer things-to-look-for lists. Kovacevic counts ten, Rutter does five, but both pieces don't really have a lot of new information in them if you have been reading about the team every day since mid-November. I don't think we're really in the target audience for these kind of pieces though I enjoy them a lot. Rutter also has this essay on starting pitching. I will have to update this post before April begins. One thing I will say about the current team: regardless of whether or not Littlefield adds another starter, the core of 2005 rotation looks much stronger than the 2004 rotation looked on opening day, mainly because of the emergence of Ollie and the addition of Redman. We're missing some of the depth we had last year, however.
Finally, Perrotto also offers this off-season recap for those of you who have been living in a cave.
Saturday, February 12, 2005
Jason Bay in his second year
The New York Times looks at Bay and Oakland's Bobby Crosby.
People are getting a little crazy in these final weeks of waiting.
Friday, February 11, 2005
Dave speaks
Ed Eagle serves an interview with the GM.
This made me smile:
EE: There is now a concern among a lot of Pirates fans that I hear from that the team might be tempted to spend the additional money it has this year just for the sake of spending it all.This was the answer to that concern, from DL's response to an earlier question:
We still have some dollars to continue to try to improve the club for 2005 and certainly we'll have more freedom financially as we move forward in future years. But once Spring Training starts, that does not mean that you can't continue to improve the team. There are trades made during Spring Training. There are trades made during the season. Having some dollars available will give us the ability to be in that market. We haven't been a player in that market here in the recent past.
This fits with a few things I've been thinking this week. First, I don't think the Bucs will fall on their face out of the gate. Second, I think some other teams will. Third, why can't we use the extra money to part some quality player from a team that's rebuilding? Every season there's a race to the bottom with some teams. I'm sure there are a half-dozen teams out there who won't trade anyone right now, but, if they start the season winning 33% of their games, will then feel like they need to part with the older players, collect prospects, and go with the youth movement. We did the youth movement last year and we have some surplus youth. Being prepared to take about $5M in salary off another team's hands might be serendipity come late June or July. And that would make headlines, wouldn't it -- the Pirates acquiring someone near the deadline to help now and next year.
Raise your mug to blogs
With Spring Training just ahead, all kinds of new bloggy goodness pops up around us. I couldn't help but notice this Cubs blog, this Mariners blog, and this D'Rays blog.
I'm all for new blogs. The more, the merrier. It's no coincidence, I think, that the teams with the most blogs also have the blogs with the most traffic. A rising tide lifts all boats. As more and more people break the mainstream news habit, watch the continued proliferation of sports blogs and podcasts (yes, podcasts!) .
I also expect we will continue to see a lot of turnover in the ranks of active blogs. There's not really any money in blogging. All the writing can be a headache. Some people never lose the gnawing fear that they have embarrassed themselves in some irreversible way. I wonder, for example, if this is a coherent paragraph.
But not for long. There's no way to tell if you are suited for it until you try. For some of us, it's as easy as getting out of bed. For others, it becomes a worry or a nightmare. If you are thinking about launching your own blog, I say do it. Just as there is always room for one more person on the bandwagon, so is there always room for one more blog. All hail blogs and bloggers.
So what other new blogs am I missing? And what blogs have recently deceased without my noticing? Use this thread to answer those questions if you like. You can also use the thread to pimp your own blog if you keep one. FWIW, I'll link to the ones that are narrowly focussed on baseball or maybe football. And I'll only link to ones that are more or less regularly updated. If it's brand new, I'll probably wait a month or two to see if keeps rolling. I don't update the blogroll often and I don't want it crowded with deadwood.
But who cares about links - there is also this invention, the bookmark, which we use to follow other blogs I discover as a plod around the internets. So let's hear about what you have to say.
Thursday, February 10, 2005
The fantasy suits
One more thing. If you are a fantasy baseball or rotisserie baseball player (not sure what the difference is, but I know a lot of "roto" guys who think "fantasy" is an effeminate and lame term), check out this and this from yesterday's (or is it today's?) USAToday.
Hopefully all the revenue generated by fantasy baseball will be split evenly among the clubs, like the satellite radio deal, because that would be a boon for the Bucs.
On the other hand, baseball is seriously molesting the hen that lays the golden eggs if they aim to shut down "small-time" games. I'm in one league where half the players would quit before they would learn how to use a new site or (god forbid) a new scoring system. Actually all my leagues are like that. If they want to jack up the fees, fine, but shutting down games in hopes of consolidation will not be good for growing the fan base. It would be a bit like a politician saying he was no longer going to take money from fundraisers that failed to raise at least $1 million.
Yawn
Yesterday John Perrotto reported that no trades will happen until mid-March, if at all, the way things look today. Also, both the A's and the D'Rays would want Zach Duke for Byrnes or Huff. I'd think about trading Duke for a healthy Kearns but not for Byrnes. Not sure what I'd do for Huff. Since I don't run the team, however, it's pretty certain that my opinion means about nothing. Enjoy the day.
Wednesday, February 09, 2005
More reading
Ed Eagle riffs on the lack of roster turnover. I'm grateful we aren't starting the year with a Chris Stynes or a Randall Simon. Or are we? We have yet to see what these guys look like after the layoff.
Eagle also describes the bullpen.
KHALIFA projections
That great comments thread on who is likely to improve versus who is likely to not improve inspires me to do my own survey.
Before I bust down the forty-man roster all fists-of-fury with the projections, I want to be clear about the meaning of my remarks. First, be it known that any baseball player can suddenly suck, overnight, just like that. It could be an injury, it could be Steve Blass disease, it could Rick Ankiel complex, it could D. Ward vs. the Buffet Table. Who knows. It can happen to anyone.
Second, I'll borrow some terminology from Nate Silver's PECOTA system. One of the best things about it, I think, is the Breakout - Improve - Collapse - Attrition breakdown. I regard the players this way. When I say Jose Castillo is a good breakout candidate, I'm not saying he will breakout. I don't know that. I'm saying he has as good a chance of breaking out as any other Buc. Castillo is not exempt from Be-it-known #1. He could be the second coming of Warren Morris. When I say that I think Ward is likely to improve, I don't mean he has no chance of Collapse or Attrition. He could suck more than ever. Or, a year from now, he could even be working the other side of the buffet table as a chef in the food-service industry (with his Jon Anand chef's hat). I make no guarantees. Even if Castillo only has, I'd guess, something like a 6% chance of being out of work six months from now, that's still a pretty likely - as in, wouldn't shock us in hindsight - scenario in the world of sport. We don't sit around kicking ourselves with questions like "What are the odds Jason Bay hits that home run?" after such 6-in-100 possibilities are realized. There is a tendency to regard what happened as though it were inevitable but that's never the case. Not in this gambler's mind at least. J.J. Davis could have played well last year. Oliver Perez could have continued to pitch only as well as he did in Spring Training. Shit happens man.
Third, more Buccos will improve than decline in 2005 because the team is young. That said, a lot of the downturn will be attributed, like Kip Wells's off year in 2004, to unexpected or unforeseeable injury. My projections - let's call them the KHALIFA (Kids Have A Lotta Improving Future Ahead) projections - do not account for injury or even factor in the slightest hunch I may or may not have that one of these guys will spend time on the DL.
With no further ado, here are the projections. Most players fall into one of five categories. There is "breakout" and then is "improve," which means more likely to improve than breakout. Much of that has to do with the suckiness of the 2004 performance. Rather than use "Collapse," which has traumatic connotatons, I'll use "Hold steady" and "Off year." "Attrition" means more likely to get cut from the team than likely to play enough to have an "off year." As I just said, in no sense does anyone's forecast rule out, guarantee, or even really predict any outcome. Rather the KHALIFA projections only suggest what I think is the most likely outcome. Never in my wildest dreams do I expect all of the most likely scenarios to be realized.
Pitchers
99 Bobby Bradley R/R 5-11 190 12/15/80
61 Sean Burnett L/L 5-11 190 09/17/82
27 Josh Fogg R/R 6-0 205 12/13/76
51 Mike Gonzalez R/L 6-2 200 05/23/78
39 John Grabow L/L 6-2 210 11/04/78
37 Mike Johnston L/L 6-2 225 03/30/79
46 Brian Meadows R/R 6-4 230 11/21/75
49 Jose Mesa R/R 6-3 235 05/22/66
62 Jeff Miller R/R 6-4 230 02/01/80
48 Oliver Perez L/L 6-2 200 08/15/81
43 Matt Peterson R/R 6-5 210 02/11/82
55 Mark Redman L/L 6-5 245 01/05/74
53 Ian Snell R/R 5-11 170 10/30/81
45 Cory Stewart L/L 6-4 210 11/14/79
16 Salomon Torres R/R 5-11 215 03/11/72
47 John Van Benschoten R/R 6-4 215 04/14/80
22 Ryan Vogelsong R/R 6-3 210 07/22/77
32 Kip Wells R/R 6-3 200 04/21/77
58 Dave Williams L/L 6-3 220 03/12/79
Breakout: Zach Duke, not mentioned, may be the only one worth considering here. Improve: Fogg, Gonzalez, Grabow, Torres, Wells, Redman, Vogelsong, Dave Williams. Steady: Fogg, Oliver Perez, Meadows. Off year: Don't see one coming. Attrition: Mesa. All the rest: I don't have much of a clue. Comment: Gonzalez is young and raw. Improvement seems likely, especially for a guy with his stuff. Grabow can only get better or get cut. I think better is more likely. Torres falls into this category because I think he'll keep his current level of effectiveness as he pitches more and more high-leverage innings. Kip Wells was an ace in 2003. I expect he's more likely to return to ace form than he is to just totally suck. Mark Redman had a crazy first year in the AL. Now he's back in the NL, I expect he'll be more like the guy he was in Florida. I'm still worried he'll put our defense to sleep but I see likely improvement over his 2004 numbers. Vogelsong reminds me of Brett Tomko. Just as Tomko stuck around and now turns in capable stretches, so do I think Vogelsong will stick around. He falls under the category of improve because his 2004 numbers make improvement almost certain if he avoids attrition. Dave Williams strikes me as someone who, like Josh Fogg, will get better with experience. He turns 26 next month. He's a kid and kids are more likely to get better than old men. Steady: Josh Fogg I have learned never to doubt. He was better in so many ways in the second half of 2004. Oliver Perez was so good in 2004, it seems unlikely he'll duplicate that in 2005. The idea of sophomore slump jumps out at you. Is he the next Dontrelle Willis? The answer is no, I think. For one, his stuff is just too amazingly good. And for another, last year wasn't his rookie season. I think he's likely to be too good for the words "off year" without necessarily duplicating 2004. Meadows is steady as they come. Attrition: The only guy who I think has a greater chance of getting cut for injury or sudden incompetence is Old Man Mesa. Because he's old. That said, who knows. I like the re-signing because I think it's smart to use the best relievers in the seventh and eighth innings. It's not smart to use an incompetent pitcher in any inning. He never looked incompetent to me in 2004, but I know he's an Old Man, so who knows. Hitters:
Catchers B/T Ht Wt DOB
11 Humberto Cota R/R 6-0 195 02/07/79
14 Ryan Doumit S/R 6-0 200 04/03/81
30 J.R. House R/R 6-0 210 11/11/79
56 Ronny Paulino R/R 6-3 230 04/21/81
34 Benito Santiago R/R 6-1 200 03/09/65
Infielders B/T Ht Wt DOB
50 Jose Bautista R/R 6-0 195 10/19/80
14 Jose Castillo R/R 6-1 200 03/19/81
35 Brad Eldred R/R 6-5 270 07/12/80
17 Bobby Hill S/R 5-9 175 04/03/78
12 Freddy Sanchez R/R 5-10 190 12/21/77
31 Daryle Ward L/L 6-1 240 06/27/75
19 Ty Wigginton R/R 6-0 225 10/11/77
2 Jack Wilson R/R 6-0 180 12/29/77
Outfielders B/T Ht Wt DOB
38 Jason Bay R/R 6-2 200 09/20/78
29 Rajai Davis S/R 5-11 190 10/19/80
26 Chris Duffy S/L 5-10 185 04/20/80
50 Matt Lawton L/R 5-10 190 11/03/71
3 Rob Mackowiak L/R 5-10 190 06/20/76
64 Nate McLouth L/R 5-11 185 10/28/81
5 Tike Redman L/L 5-11 175 03/10/77
36 Craig Wilson R/R 6-2 220 11/30/76
Breakout: Jose Castillo. Improve: Ward, Wigginton, Mackowiak, all the kids who won't make the 25-man roster at the end of March. Steady: Hill, Bay, Craiggers. Off year: Jack Wilson, Matt Lawton. Attrition: Santiago, Tike Redman. Comments: If the Bucs had sent Jose Castillo to AA last year, my guess is he would have smacked the ball around and maybe get promoted to AAA mid-year. And he'd be a top prospect in all the books and no one would say the Pirates have no hitting prospects in the minor leagues. And lots of people would be all like, Promote Jose Castillo! The Bucs should just plug Jose Castillo in at second and see what they got with him. Instead, they let him finish his development not at AA but in the majors, and now everyone says the team has no hitting prospects and Castillo is too slow and all that jazz. Improve: I'm a Daryle Ward fan. I know he only had one really good month. But if he's not permanently crippled from that injury that ended that month, I think he can get back to a high level. He was a top prospect all his life until (relatively) recently and he's from a baseball family. I'm a believer. Nothing else to say about him. Wigginton I think has a little bit more to show us. And the team appears committed to giving him that chance. He'll manage and improve somewhat on the 2004 season. That's my guess as to what is most likely to happen. Mackowiak will force his way into the lineup and be improved. He's put himself together one piece at a time. So a few pieces are missing. I don't doubt that he can't finish the job. He started with nothing and now he's like 75% big-league star. Him and Josh Fogg were like twins separated at birth or something. All the other kids I'm not mentioning here are likely to be better ballplayers this year. I have no clue what McLouth's numbers will be wherever he plays, but even if they aren't up to his 2004 numbers, I'll still guess he was just a better player playing in a much better environment. Stay the same: Bobby Hill. I think we know what he can do now. Jason Bay was steady Eddie in 2004. I see no reason to expect that to change. Craiggers still has some inconsistency problems. He's a lot like Wigginton. I wouldn't be shocked to see a career year in 2005 followed by a pretty quick decline. Off year: Jack Wilson is coming off appendectomy surgery and he's all scrawny. Not good. Plus, I do now think he had more than a fair share of luck in the first half of 2004. He'll still be good enough, but I doubt the 2005 numbers will be better than the 2004. That said, it could happen, just as Jason Bay could homer in his next at-bat. I worry about Matt Lawton's defense. Homies are going to boo his sorry rag-armed ass if the other team gets like back-to-back triples. He had a good year last year but I'm worried he won't like playing in Pittsburgh if/when the fans start booing his "girl throws" from left field. Not much to say about Old Man Santiago and Tike Redman that hasn't already been said.
On the whole, the KHALIFA projections are quite upbeat. I wouldn't say the team has dynasty written all over it, but it does look to me like this is a stronger team than the one we saw last year. They can win half their games. They can compete in the NL Central. This isn't a promise or a Joe Namath-like guarantee. But honestly, you just don't know enough about sports and the wacky wacky world we live in if you think the Pirates have zero chance of being a game or two out of first in late August.
Get your Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds voodoo dolls ready ... stock up on pins and needles ...
Hopeless Hope
There's a bunch of comments in there I'd like to echo. DK is right about so many things. I tend to get criticism for being too upbeat or optimistic about the team. So if I can pass off some of my articles of Bucco belief onto DK, then maybe I can shore up the old credibility with the hard-boiled skeptics of the online community.
1. First, Jose Castillo has a ton of upside. Any evaluation of his 2004 season has to consider the context that he was brought up for his defense. And, the team used the season as a developmental year for him at the plate. They messed with his stance and made him, for example, stand on his head for the first pitch, stuff that he found uncomfortable. The numbers don't tell the whole story. He was not brought up with the idea that he was more or less ready at the plate.
I wouldn't be surprised if Castillo's 2005 season at the plate is much like his 2004 season. As I've said before, I see him as on the Jack Wilson career path. Jack floundered for two years before he broke out. There's no doubt, though, that he has a lot of potential. A 2005 breakout like Jack Wilson's 2004 breakout would not completely surprise me. If he doesn't leap forward this year, then I think, if he makes it through 2005 without doing, say, a Warren Morris impersonation, then he'll surely leap forward in 2006.
2. Freddy Sanchez is not All That. Here is what I wrote about him last April. Hurry up and trade him while he has some value as a prospect, I say.
3. The Aramis Ramirez trade is not something to pin on the current GM, and it's ancient history so far as the current management is concerned. Evaluations of whether or not the Pirates are on the right track should address more recent moves. The Pat Meares, Kevin Young, and Derek Bell signings are also pretty irrelevant.
More later, maybe ... little Rowdy Jr. just woke up and he has something to tell me in gibbers and squeaks.
Tuesday, February 08, 2005
Lacking upside
Pittsburgh Pirates: Another team lacking a lot of upside. The Reds and Brewers are both improved teams, and the Pirates are now far worse than anyone else in the division. I don't expect Kip Wells, a viable second starter, to last long with the team, leaving them just with Oliver Perez. The offense will be quite poor, though I guess Craig Wilson is everything (and more?) that Mike Sweeney is at this point. The bullpen should be fine and the rest of the rotation good enough to present them from losing 100 games, but not 90.That's what Bryan says.
Byrnes
Joe Rutter reports the Pirates have asked for him.
As we know from this story, no one knows what the GMs have or have not discussed unless the GMs explicitly tell them so. And they don't often do this. Billy Beane has explained that there are only two people in the whole world who know what he's thinking or planning with trade scenarios, him and his assistant, and that we should regard all reports claiming knowledge that suggests otherwise with suspicion.
That said, this report from Rutter fits with this story of last week. And any Byrnes deal may be hung up for Mike Cameron reasons explained here. The fact that Oakland just signed him means little -- that had to happen, trade or no trade, at this point in the offseason. Since Byrnes's number was close to the number Oakland offered, it looks clear to me that there's not a lot of debate about his value. I doubt he signed for so much or so little that his trade value has changed from what it was in December.
I first entertained the idea of Byrnes here. Other people have advanced the idea, too. I believe there's a pretty long history of Byrnes-to-Pittsburgh speculation dating to at least the Kendall negotiations.
Monday, February 07, 2005
The bandwagon never gets full
Great Q & A this week from Ed Eagle.
Eagle authored an interesting piece on the team for the new Sporting News fantasy baseball magazine. In my last post I went on a rant about the state of the Bucs according to the pundits. I wasn't inspired so much by the pieces that I linked before that rant - that would be a bit of an overreaction - but by the stuff I've read, here in there, in the various magazines and on the web. As a general rule of thumb, when I see any one of the dozen or so fantasy mags, I flip to the article on the Bucs and to the write-up of a player or two. I can tell pretty quickly what I'm probably going to think of the whole thing by what they have to say about the small corner of the big leagues that I actually know something about.
TSN, in that one mag at least, picks the Bucs to finish sixth in the NL Central. While I think this is a bit harsh and generally unoriginal, I recongize that the publications are more concerned with not being too wrong than they are with being right. The projections etc. just have to be plausibe. Then, if a team like the Pirates surprise, everyone can say, "Who saw this coming?" It would be better for the Bucs that way, too.
Anyway, in this week's Q & A, Eagle turns a corner himself and comes clean with the admission that he had assumed that hopelessness was the norm of the Bucco faithful until very recently.
I'm hopeful about 2005. I think the team has turned a corner and I think the payroll situation is not a one-way ticket to last place -- for reasons Eagle states very eloquently:
As much as many fans would love to see the Pirates make long-term commitments to their favorite young players, in many instances it would work against the team's chances of competing against clubs with higher payrolls. In fact, the Pirates essentially must have some of their top performers earning near the Major League minimum if they hope to build a playoff team with a payroll in the $40 million range.And ... we've got some guys who make close to the minimum and contribute in such a way that we can call them "top performers." There's value all over the current roster. And there's value in the mixture of more experienced players. Our bench and bullpen and back of the rotation, for example, will be stronger than most. (Pedro Astacio, who the Bucs looked at, just signed with another team to start--i.e. to be one of their top five pitchers.) As Joe M. writes:
With the core of young players who are tied to the team for at least two or three years and the mix of veterans, the Pirates have turned the corner and have a bright future in front of them this year, not just down the road. I just hope that enough people realize this before this bandwagon is full.All I'd say to that is this, there's always room on the bandwagon, Joe. And further, there is nooooooooo real danger of us filling up the one we have now anytime soon.
I'm not saying the Pirates are going to the playoffs this year. I don't know that. But I do think there chances are decent, or, how shall I say, at least average. There's cause for hope. I don't want to get cocky or boastful or taunt anybody, but I'd rather be a fan of the Bucs right now than a couple other NL Central clubs who have, I think, worse chances. The chance to have a good year is no guarantee, of course. The team could fall on its face and so forth and so on. But so far so good: that hasn't happened yet. 2005 still looks good to me.
Rise and rant
The inimitable John Perrotto writes about Ben Grieve.
Grieve said the reputation [of not "being hungry"] is unjust.Speaking of body language, Bryan from Against the Grain commented, right after the signing, that Grieve checks his fly before every at-bat. I'm all about the Ben Grieve signing. It was smart, smart, smart I say."I think a lot of it is my body language," Grieve said. "I'm not the type of person who gets very excited or upset. I try to stay on an even keel."
Perrotto also reports what we were already guessing for ourselves ... Kearns is not on the block.
There were a couple of editorials over the weekend with the basic theme of "Pirates are losers." Will the season please start already? Anyway, here they are. Bruce Weber says no one in Pittsburgh cares about baseball once the Steelers begin play. We already knew that. Sam Ross Jr. says it will hard for the Bucs to win. Hey, it's hard for any team to win. John Mehno writes that it will be hard for the Bucs to win. I'm yawning as I write that. Tell me something we don't already know.
I honestly do think that simply pissing on the team - ripping the owner, the GM, the manager, the politicians who raided the public treasuries, Pirate-style, to fund the stadium - is the easiest thing in the world to write. It's not that I don't think there's some merit to those arguments. It's just that the good versions - the good essays with that theme - are few are far between. They are awash in a sea of bad essays, rants, bulletin board manifestos, etc., with that theme. It's the equivalent of writing "Paris Hilton is a skanky ho." Well, duh. I'll try to be patient as I follow that line of thought for the 1,000th time. If I get pissed off, though, I'll admit I was a jackass if you'll admit that you weren't being original.
That said, plain ripping on the team, while it is a big category of Bucco writing and speechifying, does not always include the plain dumping on the Pirates' chances. There's that whole genre of Pirate writing too. The "they don't really have a chance to win anything this year" genre. That's equally lazy and unoriginal, especially when payroll is cited as if it's all the evidence needed to win the case.
One could counter my line of rant there by saying, "Would you get upset if I wrote that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow? When I write the truth, how can you blame me, or criticize me for 'being unoriginal'"
My answer to that would be, "When is the last time you read, in the paper, that the sun was going to rise in the east tomorrow?" We don't write up the obvious. The point of writing is contributing to knowledge and thus spreading knowledge with the means of producing it. In other words, bring the fish and some tips on how to catch them.
If the Bucs aren't going to win anything this year, why is that? Give me editorials that say "Jason Bay is just another Jeff Conine and This is Why He'll Fail as a #3 Hitter." Or, "Jose Mesa will blow all of his saves and Mike Gonzalez will be a disaster." Or, "Kip Wells will never be healthy again." Tell me why the Pirates have no chance to win anything. "Pirate fans are sadly deluded if they believe Jose Castillo will improve as a hitter." Wrote those editorials. "The owner is a hypocrate, the GM is a jackass, the manager is a moron, and the team won't score any runs"--that doesn't cut it. It's invective masquerading as serious thought. I will ridicule it every time.
Dejan wrote that the payroll would be low. He also reports that Will Carroll wrote with new information about the measure of the team's ability to prevent pitching effectiveness. I'm not sure what that number means, but it's out there for your consideration.
Finally, on the general subject of Pirate life and Pirate culture, here are two items you might enjoy a little more than the link to the NPR story about the old Pirate poem.
Sunday, February 06, 2005
Super Bowl predictions
Despair not, the Super Bowl is nearly past us and all eyes will turn to baseball soon.
Rich Gibson of the Times Leader collected Super Bowl preditions here:
JACK WILSON, Pittsburgh Pirates -- I like New England not only because of their team concept, they're just a classy organization. PATRIOTS, 28-21.MIKE GONZALEZ, Pirates -- New England wins because of its overall consistency. PATRIOTS, 34-20.
CRAIG WILSON, Pirates -- New England's experience pays off in a high-scoring Super Bowl. PATRIOTS, 45-28.
ROB MACKOWIAK, Pirates -- New England usually always limits mistakes and they've been strong in the postseason. PATRIOTS, 32-21.
LLOYD MCCLENDON, Pirates' manager -- I'm going with an upset. I think Philly's coming in loose and well-prepared. Look for a shootout. EAGLES, 38-34.
TIKE REDMAN, Pirates -- Some people may be underestimating Philly's defense. I think they'll find a way to pull it off. EAGLES, 20-17.
DAVE LITTLEFIELD, Pirates' General Manager -- I'm really sold on New England and their overall team concept. Brady has been clutch in all the big games. PATRIOTS, 24-17.
ROWDY, Pirates blogger -- I'm with Tike and Joe. The Patriots aren't as good as everyone says. They are good, but they aren't in some higher league. This is the Super Bowl. It will be close. Eagles in a close one. Eagles 27, Patriots 26.
Have a better guess? Leave it here.
Saturday, February 05, 2005
The Corsair
Raise your hand if you've ever read this great work. Back in 1904, only the old-timers discussed it often.
All hail Josh Gibson
Ed Eagle describes his Pittsburgh career for MLB.com.
I was pretty bitter about Washington's decision to go Nationals instead of Grays. Pittsburgh's decision to play a game as the Crawfords looks downright classy by comparison. There must be ways to be skeptical about the purity of their motives here, but why bother? Let the circus honor the Negro Leagues without criticizing the circus for being the circus.
Trade non-news
This is new. The Cincinnati Enquirer summarizes a recent on-line chat as a news item for the paper. Makes sense to me. There, O'Brien says the price for an outfielder is very high.
For the Chicago Tribune, Dave Van Dyck reported the Reds were not inclined to trade Kearns within the division. This bit of news was prompted it looks by rumors the Cubs were interested in him. Journalists have also written about the Braves as a team that might be interested in Kearns.
It's hard to find any evidence in the media that Kearns was ever really "on the block." Rather it looks like the Randa signing prompted a lot of people to speculate that the Reds might want to deal him. While they were giving up on him as a third baseman, I haven't seen anything that suggests there's anything more to it.
The news that the Tigers are completing a deal with Magglio suggests to at least one Mets writer that Mike Cameron won't be going anywhere. Seeing that the Mets just signed a pretty good centerfielder, I'm not sure I follow that line of reasoning. But if it's true, it would affect the bidding for Eric Byrnes, I suppose.
Friday, February 04, 2005
Centerfielders
The D'backs thought they had a deal, but another team got involved, and so they don't. That team got involved Wednesday, the same day that Dejan Kovacevic reported that the Pirates would target after other players after Burnitz signed with the Cubs.
In other news, the A's agreed to terms with Byrnes, the subject of rumored trade discussions with both Pittsburgh and Arizona.
Errors in the infield
According to the 2005 Bill James Handbook, infielders were 30% more likely to make an error at PNC Park than at other baseball stadiums during the period 2002-2004. The Pirates made 84 errors at home and 62 on the road; their opponents made 65 in PNC and 54 elsewhere.
This error rate, on the Pirates' side, can be attributed solely to the 2002 and 2003 seasons. Last year, the Bucs made 16 at home and 19 on the road. Their opponents continued to struggle a bit, though, making 19 at PNC and 16 elsewhere.
So it is the infield or is this just some kind of small-sample size oddity? I remember a certain third baseman cracking under a lot of pressure at home, but that wouldn't account for the visitors having similar troubles through all three years.
...oops, E-5 in this post, it's 30% more likely and not 130% more likely, duh.
Baseball has a salary cap
It is soft like a baby's hat, but apparently baseball's debt service rule will hold down payroll starting next year, according to that Washington Post report. Intelligent comment here, at Primer.
Talking about the weather
IIRC, last year, weather-wise, PNC experienced an unusual year. Where I can I find those stats - temperature, humidity, barometric pressure for games? Sure, I wouldn't know what to do with them if I found them. But I've always been surprised that a player's hitting and pitching stats are split by month, time of day, stadium, etc., and not, routinely, by temperature & other weather conditions. Is that because there's nothing to, say, the commonly-held belief that knuckleballers work better in certain conditions? Some players, who grew up near the equator, complain that they can't get loose for the April games in 45 degree weather. Is there nothing to that? Is Jason Bay, our hearty Canadian, better suited for cold-weather games? Is that part of the reason he improved after leaving San Diego? Didn't we learn that a significant part of the Coors effect was the influence of low humidity on baseballs?
To butcher Mark Twain, we talk all we want about the weather, but who is going to do something about it?
Thursday, February 03, 2005
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