Game 19: Astros at Pirates

Albers vs. Duke, starting now. Freddy has been scratched after an unidentified object was removed from his eye earlier today.

Straightforward logic

Fire Joe Morgan has fun with Dejan's clutch piece. The conclusion:

Tracy's "case" is that they need a high BA with RISP, and that OBP doesn't matter so much. That's like saying that the important part of the alley-oop is the slam dunk, and it doesn't matter so much whether anyone bothered to lob you the ball.

So, in the end, I guess I made fun of Jim Tracy. Dejan Kovacevic gets a check-plus, because I think if you read between the lines he is on the side of Facts and Truth. Freddy Sanchez and Jason Bay get gold stars. Ronny Paulino and everyone else who would rather pitch to Albert Pujols than David Eckstein gets a punch in the face and an exhortation to seek counseling.

(link via WHYGAVS)

8 and 10

Four games out, two games under .500.

Paul Maholm is clutch

Tonight Maholm pitched a three-hit complete-game shutout against the Astros.

Game 18: Astros at Pirates

Woody Williams and Paul Maholm at seven.

Clutchiness

In response to Dejan Kovacevic's clutch study, Charlie argues that the Pirates are wrong and Dave Pinto follows Jason Bay and argues that it's not clutchiness that exists but chokiness.

There's no doubt that the situation affects a player's ability to hit. With all respect to Charlie, I am not persuaded by something like career batting averages and postseason batting averages. The hitting environment is just not stable, and the data is far too incomplete (making sample sizes much too small) to say with any authority that the numbers prove anything in the debate about "clutch." It could be coincidence that Joe Rudi's postseason numbers delivered in the clutch match his overall regular-season numbers. Joe Rudi does not dent the argument either way.

Think about the variance in the hitting environment from at-bat to at-bat. Some players are affected by defensive alignments. Sometimes you'll see a shift on, for example, and both the shortstop and the second baseman will be on the right side of the infield. That affects a player's ability to get on base in the at-bat. Or maybe some lucky genius had the right-fielder cheat just far enough toward the line that a usual double is caught for an out. These situations are not easily sorted from the rest of the player's at-bats. And there is no "true" or consistent "regular" hitting environment. There is enough variance from at-bat to at-bat to make each one unique and each one its own too-small sample size--when, that is, we get into debates about one of the endless variety of at-bat subsets.

So it's hard for us to say what a player's "true" clutch hitting ability is--it depends, in ways we cannot articulate with the current stats made available, say, from ESPN or USAToday, on the kinds of situations in which they bat. I am not saying that season-long, month-long, or career-long averages are meaningless. I am saying they are too messy and complicated to neatly subdivide into statistically authoritative arguments about subsets of at-bats.

And not all "close and late" situations are the same. There are games where both teams look tired and appear to be going through the motions, and there are games where the playoffs are on the line and the stadium is packed and the crowd noise is intimidating.

The data is not complete enough to say much of anything decisively at this point.

Proof for me that hitting is heavily influenced by the immediate hitting environment are the abysmal numbers most players post in pinch-hitting situations. Very few players are good pinch-hitters, as I discovered, to my surprise, a few years ago. If hitting ability was truly some kind of ideal constant, we would not see a difference between PH numbers and everyday play numbers. This, for me, is proof that something like "clutch" surely exists--but what that is would depend on how it's defined and even then, the numbers are not likely to be very helpful in distinguishing one player's clutchiness from another's. Fine distinctions may be impossible to quantify.

Further proof that clutch exists is anecdotal. Even Charlie concedes it in Elway and Jordan. But for me, this anecdotal evidence carries as much or more weight than the kind of statistical evidence we have at hand today. I have no disdain for statistics, mind you. Rather it's a serious respect for their present limitations. Because I have thought so long and hard about them, I am of the opinion that they do not tell as much as we wish. So I expect the study of baseball to be one that is further characterized by innovations in approach and further scholarly explanations of how everything you previously thought was all wrong. (For example.) Though I do think that some sabermetricians adopt a tiresome "Mr. Enlightenment" tone toward the observation of anecdotal evidence, I am no bleeding-heart Romantic arguing for the conviction of reason-transcending intuition. My belief in clutch is not an article of faith, either.

My advice to the Pirates would run along the lines Adam LaRoche advances in the piece. You certainly can't depend on some perception of clutch ability. The season is too long. Not every game will have a playoff atmosphere. It's just not possible.

If the Pirates want to score more runs, they have to get on base more often. Any way they can get on base is a good way to get on base. As I've said before, I'm not so frustrated when they load the bases and fail to score--as they have too often done this season. The best solution to such trouble "in the red zone" is practice in the red zone. If they keep loading the bases, they will score more runs.

So I believe in clutch and I believe that people choke, but I would not trust in clutch. I would trust more in consistency. I'd rather have a #2 hitter who can draw a walk in his sleep than a #2 hitter who appears to have an ability to deliver a hit in a clutch situation. Why? Because the first player will have far more opportunities to exercise his skill than the second player. As a result, the team would score more runs. And I'd also be skeptical that we can be certain that this or that player truly possesses more clutchiness than the others.

And one more thing on the lineup. I'd stick with what works. If the Pirates win big against mainly right-handed pitching on Monday and face a right-hander on Tuesday, I'd run that same lineup out there again. If they can win often with Jack Wilson in the #2 spot, then don't fix what's not broken. The standings, however, suggest that Jim Tracy would do well to keep tinkering with the lineup until he finds a consistent winner.

Clutch

Dejan Kovacevic studies clutch.

The coming homestand

Brian O'Neill looks at the coming homestand.

I'm still not sold that anyone's hitting numbers are beyond the usual week-to-week fluctuations. They don't look good, a number of them, but they have established a good level of ability in previous year(s). They are not rookies. So they are due.

Break out the hidden vigorish, and bust some people on the head.

Off day

Take it easy.

Here's some reading material if you need it. The Pirates climbed out of last place with the win yesterday. Hopefully the Cubs can sweep the Brewers in their series this week.

The coming homestand will be Astros, Reds, Cubs. Weekday games this Thursday and Wednesday a week from now (5/2). It will be nothing but the NL Central until May 10. Now would be a good time for the team to heat up and maintain concentration.

Game 17: Pirates at Dodgers

The Pirates are 6-10, in last place, and 3.5 games out of first. The Pirates have won only two of their last ten. The Astros have won eight of the last ten, and the Brewers have won seven of the last ten, and they are teams at the top of the NL Central. Those teams play each other at two o'clock.

The Dodgers are 13-5 and own the best record in the NL. The Pirates send Tom Gorzelanny against Brett Tomko. They need a win. Game on at four.

Game 16: Pirates at Dodgers

Three feet under, the Pirates send Ian Snell to battle Brad Moneypenny.

Gorgeous day

This would be a good weekend to get married.

Pure fantasy

The Nuttings don't like the Forbes report.

I was inclined to believe that the owners were not profiting excessively. Then I found out what they pay Bud Selig. And of course the owners do not think that is excessive. So it's clear that my idea of excessive is different than that of other people.

Game 15: Pirates at Dodgers

This is one of those west coast games that starts after the nightly departure of the early risers, the children, and the heavy drinkers.

Beautiful day today. I'll expect I'll just read about tonight's game in tomorrow's paper. It will be Tony Armas and Randy Wolf.

To keep hope alive, the Pirates must win, I think, at least one of these games in LA. They do not want to dick around out there and come home five games under .500.

Six and eight

The Pirates are 2-2 on this road trip. That is OK. Six and eight is not good but not horrible. Six games under .500 would be horrible. They gave away a game or two early and have not really won any games they deserved to lose. It's not a lucky 6-8.

The back half of the rotation looks awful. The front half looks hall of fame. Snell and Gorzo will not finish with numbers just like they have now. Duke and Maholm and Armas are not so awful.

Twenty-one days or eighteen or nineteen games are the smallest significant sample sizes, in my long-held opinion. With the freaky weather and unusual amount of time off early, I might extend that for assessing the start of the season for individual hitters. Right now I say don't even look at batting averages, strikeout-to-walk ratios, etc. for the hitters--wait until after game twenty or twenty-one. And then it's a bad spell if the numbers stink, and it's not necessarily evidence that someone has to go to AAA or that someone is a bust. Two consecutive twenty-day periods of full-time play and Noonie numbers, and then I am with the people calling for some kind of change.

Overall, I am not disappointed by the start of the season. They are only two games under, two and a half out of first, and they have yet to win a game at home. Things don't look great, and some of these losses have been demoralizing to watch, but on the whole there is still a lot of opportunity for this team. It is April 19 and there is play left in this season.

And that makes this season, already, twice as good as last year's.

Game 14: Pirates at Brewers

Duke vs. Suppan. Bucs trail 4-1 in the third after Duke got roughed up for 4 earnies in the first.

Why Brewers outspend Bucs

Dejan Kovacevic analyzes the payroll discrepancy between the Brewers and Bucs. Of the $20,000,000 difference, 9 and 5 million can be attributed to increased revenue the Brewers receive from ticket sales and parking, respectively. That leaves only 1 Burnitz (6 million dollars) for Nutting and McClatchy to stuff in their pockets. Despite the ownership group's secrecy in their financial dealings, they share at least that they're comfortable:

Neither principal owner Bob Nutting nor McClatchy will talk about how their operations compare to those of other teams, including the Brewers. But McClatchy did say, "I'm very comfortable with where our payroll is."

Romo and Rooker

From Pittsburgh Lumber Co., Randy's 9th and 10th installments of the Downfall-of-the-Fam-A-Lee series continue the inquiry into whether bad trades that built the 1979 team doomed the 1980s teams. Part 9 focuses on Enrique Romo and, towards the end, provides a likely explanation for Romo's mysterious disappearance. Part 10 focuses on Jim Rooker, one of the heroes from 1979 WS Game 5.

Game 13: Pirates at Brewers

For the first half of the long streak of losing seasons, the Pirates owned the Brewers. No matter how bad the Pirates were, they could still beat up on the Brewers. That's how I remember it. Don't correct me if I'm wrong.

Then everything went to hell and now the Brewers are good.

It stirs up powerful contradictory feelings. On one hand, they are the Brewers and I respect that. And for a long time I liked playing the Brewers; playing them was a holiday from the torturous monotony of losing series after series.

On the other hand, I hate the f'n Brewers and their wealth of outfielders and prospects and Ben Sheets and their Bill Hall.

I forget who's pitching tonight, but I believe it is a battle of back halves of rotations. Paul Maholm and . . . (looking it up) Claudio Vargas. Starting soon.

Go Trail Blazers

Deadspin explains why we should be rooting against the Warriors tonight.

The little things

Brian O'Neill explains why base hits are good.

One game out

And tied with Houston, a team that obviously recovered from their home-opening series. Houston will play Cincinnati as the Pirates play Milwaukee.

Game 12: Pirates at Cardinals

Getaway day. Gorzelanny and Wainwright at one.

Five wins, six losses

The NL Central is knotted up. The teams on top play each other tonight (Reds and Brewers). And the Pirates get another crack at the team immediately above them.

Another strange thing--looks like the Pirates are not the only team who have not played so well at home. Hopefully the sage fumigation Mr. Nutting scheduled for this week will have the stadium in a friendly mood when the Pirates return.

Game 11: Pirates at Cardinals

Ian Snell and Anthony Reyes in twenty.

New tables + new chairs = profit!

Honest Wagner friend Juan Quinto repaid his loan in full. Now to find another worthy microloan recipient . . .

. . . some of the more appealing choices include: butcher, guy with enormous PA system on roof of car ("hey you -- on the motorcycle --"), donut maker, and owner of computer game hall.

We will read the standings every day

You could call this last place, or you could call it two games out of first place.

We will freeze

I dunno about this doubleheader.

Do the Pirates make you a better beer drinker?

. . . no game tonight. So this is all we got . . .

Bucdaddy raised a good question in the comments the other day. Does being a fan of the Pirates make you a better beer drinker?

At first, it may be hard to see how the two hobbies might be related. On second thought, I see some clear connections. So I can imagine more than one approach to this deep and thorny question.

Tony Armas vs. Barry Zito tonight. I will ponder the question as I head to the beer store to stock up.

Big Poison's number retired

Dejan Kovacevic reports. Of course I agree with the decision to retire no. 11.

All hail no. 11!

Game 10: Giants at Pirates

Ortiz vs. Zuke, starting now. Bucs wearing the new red jerseys.

Scoring down

Baseball Musings notices how far off the scoring has been this year vs. last year. It's the Pirates' fault, of course.

Off day

The Pirates fell from first. The NL Central remains knotted up. The big event this weekend looks to be the Cardinals-Brewers series. Hopefully they can wear out each other's bullpens before the Pirates visit both these teams next week.

Spike had an idea. For your off-day satisfaction, consider burning sage around the computer, the radio, and the television.

Game 9: Cardinals at Pirates

Wainwright vs. Maholm, underway. Eldred starting at 1B.

4-4, first place

Here are the standings.

If someone had told me that the Pirates would finish the first eight games with a 4-4 record, I would say, "That is not bad." It is not good, either. It is mediocre.

The fact that they remain in first place with a 4-4 record suggests the great opportunity that mediocre teams might have in this division.

Not everything is going right so far this year, but not everything is going wrong. A little winning would go a long way right now.

This is a much different and a much better situation than the 0-6 start of last season. Now if the back end of our rotation can pitch as well as the converted relievers of St. Louis, perhaps the Pirates can win a few and put the early pain of this home-opening series behind them.

Game 8: Cardinals at Pirates

Minor-league middle-relief journeyman vs. Beer-guzzling Tom Gorzelanny. Game on pretty soon.

Good morning

It is not too early to look at the standings.

It is much too early to worry about Adam LaRoche. He will be fine. He's not 39 years old with a recent history that predicts decline.

The same can be said for Ronny Paulino.

My once a year post on baseball

Levitt and Dubner hint at some forthcoming protection studies.

Opening Day: Cardinals at Pirates

This is a day game. It will be cold. Braden Looper will start for the Cardinals, Ian Snell will start for the Pirates.

It's never too early to look at the standings.

If you must be at work, put the game on the radio. Or stream it from MLB.com--if their lousy servers can make room for you.

Game 6: Pirates at Reds

The Jeff Conine Experience continues with Zach Duke and Eric Milton at 1:15.

Freddy activated, Doumit sent down

Paul Meyer on the return of Sanchez: the demoted Doumit will catch every day for Indy. Meanwhile, Don Kelly enjoys a major league roster spot. I'm guessing that demoting Doumit over Kelly is more about trying to get regular ABs for Doumit than affirming Don Kelly's irreplaceable value from the bench.

Yankees hire robots

Robert Dvorchak for the P-G, on 21st century baseball technology:

A computer like IBM's Deep Blue can be programmed to beat a grand master in chess. But no computer can throw a called strike by Jason Bay, can it?

Actually, there is a device called the ProBatter PX2 pitching simulator. Using patented technology, the machine projects a DVD-quality image of a real pitcher onto an 8x10-foot screen, either throwing from a windup or from the stretch. At the moment of release, an actual ball is fired through a small hole in the screen simulating fastballs, sliders, sinkers, cutters, curves and change-ups. The top speed is 100 mph.

The Yankees have purchased the system for their big league and minor league clubs.

Prediction: in twenty years, a retired Tracy will blissfully clown around with his Jose Hernandez and Mike Edwards simulators.

Game 5: Pirates at Reds

Tony Armas Jr. and Eric Milton. They moved the game from 7pm to 1pm because it's so friggin' cold.

Lynchburg and Hickory

Minor league previews of Lynchburg and Hickory at OnlyBucs, by Wilbur Miller. Another poor draft provides Hickory with little offensive talent.

Game 4: Pirates at Reds

Paul Maholm and uh Matt Belisle.

How to win the NL Central

The following plan is foolproof. This is how the Pirates can win the NL Central:

1. Move into first place.

2. Stay there.

Sanchez could return

Dejan Kovacevic reports.

Halfway there

Now for the second leg of this road trip.

Next stop: Cincinnati. But first, the Pirates get a day off to fly and sleep.

If they maintain this level of play - I thought they played well tonight, better than the box score will suggest - people will have to talk about them and look seriously at them. If they keep this up, I'd say, for another week or two.

... aw man, Brewers just lost to Los Angeles. They almost rallied in the ninth off Saito, too. No company for the Pirates then. I bet they can deal with that no problem.

Game 3: Pirates at Astros

Temperance boy Tom Gorzelanny and Old Man Williams at eight.

Needle-eyed

A (probably fictional) play, by Pat from WHYGAVS.

Catbird seat

Pretty unfamiliar ground, but the view sure is nice from up here.

Lincoln has Tommy John surgery

Just as things were looking up for the Bucs, comes the bad news for Brad Lincoln. Dejan Kovacevic reports:

Brad Lincoln, the Pirates' first-round draft pick last summer, yesterday had reconstructive surgery to repair ligament damage in his right elbow -- commonly described as Tommy John surgery -- and will be unable to take the mound for 10-12 months. The surgery was performed by the noted orthopedist, Dr. James Andrews, in Birmingham, Ala.

Sounds awful familiar. Flashback to Wilbur's comment on draft day (6/6/06), four minutes after the draft started:

Dr. Andrews can't wait.
WTM | 06.06.06 - 1:04 pm

I wonder if Creech is on Dr. Andrews' Christmas card list. Anyway, best of luck to Young Brad and his healing arm.

Game 2: Pirates at Astros

Ian Snell and whatever they got tonight.

Wilbur's Altoona preview

Wilbur Miller's Altoona preview went up at OnlyBucs yesterday. See also his Indianapolis preview.

McLouth vs. Oswalt

Dejan Kovacevic Q&A.

Pirates win

Yeah they did.

... recap here.

Opening day: Pirates at Astros

This is it: Duke and Oswalt at seven.

The first six

Rowdy and I both strongly agree with Dejan Kovacevic here: the first six games are really important. Must avoid learned helplessness.

DL on hot seat

The Trib's Rob Biertempfel asks some outsider experts to rate Dave Littlefield. Their objective opinions? DL is not good and is on the hot seat:

"Frankly, the general perception around baseball is, 'Why isn't he already gone?' " said Kevin Goldstein, national writer for Baseball Prospectus. "There seems to be no sense of direction there. The record speaks for itself -- the Pirates are not good now, and they never were good while he's been there."

Baseball America's Jim Callis:

"The farm system's certainly not any stronger. After five years, you'd think you'd see more progress. Dave Littlefield has got to be on the hot seat."

Charlie's THT preview

Charlie Wilmoth (of Bucs Dugout) weighs in with his THT preview, on 2007, 2010, and the absurdity of rooting for a team as poorly run as the Pirates. A sobering read (fetch a drink), but well said, as usual. All hail Charlie!

Speaking of THT, the THT 2007 preview is still available. The bloggers who contributed don't make a cent, but are trying to help out the good people at THT.

Dejan and LaRoche (on fire)

Dejan Kovacevic, on the burning desire of the "lackadaisical, outright lifeless" Adam LaRoche.

So who would win a fishing contest: Adam LaRoche or Bob Nutting?

If you love something, set it free

Couldn't help laughing out loud at this from Dejan's Saturday spring training report:

Hernandez, 37, batted .300 and said he was "surprised" not to return for a third tour with the Pirates.

Tracy long has counted Hernandez among his favorites, including their time with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he became visibly emotional when describing how it felt to break the news.

"It was very, very difficult," Tracy said.

HW readers poll: 2007

Only three more days, so last chance for season predictions. If you have a minute, please humor us in the comments:

1. How many games will the Pirates win in 2007?
2. Will the Pirates finish in last place? If not, who will?
3. Any other predictions?

We'll start it off.
1. Last year, we did the same team record poll. Rowdy refused to seriously participate (going with 112 wins). I went with 75, 8 wins too optimistic. Of all the votes, 90% were too optimistic.

This year, Rowdy is seriously going with 81 wins. Trying to negatively counterbalance that irrationally optimistic prediction, I'm going to lower the bar way down, and go with 67. The inability to consistently score runs combined with paper-thin depth will ensure the usual massive helping of losing. Averaged, that makes an official HW prediction of 74 wins.

2. Yes, Bucs last.

3. 2007 will be the end of the road for DL and Creech. Excessive losing generates intense public dissatisfaction, inspiring Bob Nutting to look more carefully at why this team stinks.

Big study

Dejan Kovacevic explains what Brad Eldred did last summer vacation.

Freddy DL'd; Cota, Eldred, Doumit make team

And there's your 2007 Pittsburgh Pirates for April 2, 2007.

Please make predictions in the end-of-spring poll thread.

A miracle happens

So I was at lunch today, by myself, after doing a whole bunch of work all morning, at a fairly swanky establishment. I ordered an over-the-top deluxe sandwich and step over to the cooler to select a beverage.

In the back of my mind, I am thinking about the Pirates and wondering what will come of them. I am scanning the rows of beverages absent-mindedly. My eye is looking for something--I don't know what. There are a few remaining roster cuts, but so far as I can tell they are predictable.

Then it happens: Latrobe, Pa. Yes! I nearly fall to me knees in gratitude. I find a somewhat stale Rolling Rock from last summer waiting for me in that original Latrobe, Pa. bottle. Hallelujah!

Next I felt a Spiritual Presence beside me--like an old friend had slipped down from the heavens to stand beside me with a pleasant smile. Yeah, like that.

It was a good lunch.

Oh, and in other news, the Pirates cut Jose Hernandez today. So long, Jose.

I also see, as Dejan Kovacevic explains, that "they have Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit, Humberto Cota, Brad Eldred, Don Kelly and Jose Castillo as six players for five bench openings, pending a decision on second baseman Freddy Sanchez's status." I like Don Kelly and see him as the next Mackowiak. I mean that in a good way. Cota never appears to call a good game and he can't hit too much, so I would cut him, but I'm not the decider and I acknowledge the Pirates can't go wrong choosing five of these six.

...it appears Don Kelly made the team for sure. Congratulations, Don Kelly!

Kolb released

Pirates tell Kolb he is free to go, reports Dejan Kovacevic. It seems John Wasdin now has a roster spot.

Any gnus?

Just logged on to see if we have some roster decisions made. Not much else going on. Time to dig in and wait for Opening Day, which can't come too soon.

exhibition: Phillies at Pirates

Phils up 2-1 in the third. Back-to-back doubles from #3 hitter Paulino and #4 hitter Bay scored the early run for the Pirates. Shawn Chacon is pitching.

The ceiling of these guys

Dejan Kovacevic distinguishes between the ceiling for our young talent and that of, say, the Marlins.

I think this has little to do with whether or not the Pirates can win half their games this year.

It is true that the perennial All-Stars tend to share a profile. They are very good when very young. The Marlins have more players that fit that profile.

Still, not many youngsters who are very good when they are very young go on to become perennial All-Stars.

And most major-league players have short careers. Most major-leaguers peak at an above-average level for only a few years.

The Pirates do not need a team of perennial All-Stars to eclipse the .500 mark.

They need a few players to peak at an above-average level for not even a few years, but just one year.

Are the Pirates close to becoming a New York Yankees-style dynasty? That is one question.

Are the Pirates capable of winning 82 or 90 games in 2007? That is a very different question.

Any of the players on the roster could hit at Albert Pujols level for four weeks. We all know that. And if and when they do, we'll all be pinching ourselves and reminding ourselves that this does not mean they are a perennial All-Star.

And sometimes that four weeks is all it takes for a mediocre player to turn in the above-average season. I'd prefer steady improvement to a sudden freaky streaky outburst of high performance, but the Pirates, like any team, will take what they can get.

So I disagree with the idea that the perceived low ceiling of our young players has much to do with whether or not they can achieve the mediocre goal of a mediocre .500 season playing in a relatively weak division.

Roster moves coming

Dejan Kovacevic explains why.

Tomlin passes test

Ed Bouchette has this report on Tomlin getting his luggage back from US Airways.

In it, I see he passes an early test for me:

He also began revealing his plans for the Steelers in 2007 and what he thinks of some of his players. Yesterday, for instance, he publicly committed for the first time to staying with a 3-4 as his base defense next season.

"I know what it does to offenses, I really do," Tomlin said. "It's all about the personnel you have. We have the best 3-4 people in the world, I think. That's what we're going to do."

The more Tomlin looked at the way the Steelers played the 3-4, the more it convinced him to stick with it under coordinator Dick LeBeau rather than try to convert to a 4-3 Tampa 2, the type he coached with the Buccaneers and the Minnesota Vikings.

"To me, I was excited because I came into this league, a mecca, if you will, for the 4-3 defense in the Tampa 2, working with Tony Dungy and Monte Kiffin," Tomlin said. "Now, I'm working every day with what I believe to be the mecca for a 3-4. If you look at my growth development as a coach, man, it doesn't get any better than that. To be around Monte Kiffin and Dick LeBeau, I think you guys will agree with that. It doesn't get any better than that."

Any coach who inherits a team with Casey Hampton and Troy Polamalu and switches to a 4-3 is, to be blunt, an idiot. There are fewer than ten nose tackles in the world capable of making the 3-4 work, and the Steelers have one of the best, if not the best. While Hampton does the work of two men, Polamalu does what he does.

That's how I understand it. Maybe I'm the idiot. No wait--listen to Coach Tomlin. Maybe I'm right about that.

Hot-weather Jose

I learned a lot about life and baseball playing fantasy baseball fairly intensively in the late 90s and early 00s. One thing I learned, and one thing I now remember, is that Jose Hernandez does not hit well in cold weather. I even recall him saying something to that effect in a published report somewhere.

Is this true? Are his hot-weather/cold-weather splits dramatic? Does he still talk like he's not The Man for 40-degree baseball?

... ok, so lots of players don't like playing in cold weather. Back in I think 2001 and 2002 there was some bitter cold weather in the midwest into May, and Hernandez was not starting those seasons strong. Still, if he made that comment back when he was with the Cubs or the Brewers, it may not have been all that signficant.

exhibition: Pirates at Reds

Zach Duke will pitch at one.

A work in progress

Stats Geek on the infield.

I have an idea. Move Brad Eldred to second, and keep Freddy Sanchez at third.

Final cuts

Dejan Kovacevic summarizes the state of the roster. I guess Matos and Hernandez make the bench.

Sense has rarely ruled

John Perrotto summarizes the spring.

Is Freddy's footwork that bad at second? I have always brushed off the suggestion that he's unqualified to play second base, and the talk of taking unnecessary risks has struck me as silly hand-wringing. Now Perrotto's article has me wobbling on the issue.

But heck, let's see if Freddy can play tomorrow.

Uni Watch

Paul Lukas writes down everything you need to know, and some things you did not need to know, about the uniform changes around the league.

Be sure to click through for the picture on the "embarrassing new batting practice hats." It's worth it.

No more wool caps? Only polyester ones? Did I read that right? That's a stunner.

I'm sure the polyester hats will be much cheaper to make. And I'm sure the price will stay the same or go up. When they say that "wool is not a performance fabric," that's like saying, "oak is not a performance lumber." These people think you are stupid.

No more wool hats. Is nothing sacred?

Sanchez to "heck, let's go out and play"

Freddy will try some minor-league action tomorrow, Dejan Kovacevic reports.

He is 23 for his past 38

Dejan Kovacevic with the game summary.

Also noted:

Brad Eldred went 0 for 2 with two walks. For the spring, he has nine walks against 19 strikeouts in 66 plate appearances.

I sure am interested to see what comes of Big Country this season.

exhibition: Pirates at Red Sox

Game at one.

Sharpless, Ryan, Diaz cut

Danny Kolb will make the team.

Dejan Kovacevic reports on the cuts.

The best-case scenario for Danny Kolb is something like Rick White 2005. I will not forget opening day 2005. Oliver Perez in trouble, Pirates down by only a few runs, and McClendon brought in Rick White. Play to win these games, I thought at the time. April offers the most valuable opportunity in all the season for a team with so many consecutive years of losing. White, true to spring from, stank it up and the Pirates lost 9-2. Then he went on to be one of the better relievers that season.

Now pitching, Brad Lincoln

Lincoln has been cleared to pitch, reports Dejan Kovacevic.

Dog food

Steve from The Parrot critiques the steak-or-dog-food menu.
Mmm ... steak.

Aprihop

Yum.

This is another sign of spring, as these gentlemen explain.

This one's for Tom Gorzelanny.

Crisis in Kuwataville

Terrible news. Kuwata's a new favorite around these parts.

Dejan Kovacevic reports.

Sanchez to DL "highly likely"

Mid-day update from the man at the PG.

exhibition: Blue Jays at Pirates

Paul Maholm will pitch for the Pirates at one.

There may be some roster moves announced before today's game. I doubt they will let many decisions go down to the wire.

Sanchez to DL

Dejan Kovacevic reports it's likely that Freddy will begin the year on the DL. It sounds like they are targeting the home opener for his return.

New picture

Mark Belko reports about the fancy new TV.

Pick two

Dejan Kovacevic reports that the bullpen competition has come to Kolb, Sharpless, and Bayliss for two spots.

Rotation set

Welcome back, Dejan Kovacevic. DK writes:

This is how they will set up, in order, for the Pirates' first two series: Duke, Snell and Gorzelanny will pitch in Houston. Maholm, Duke and Armas will pitch in Cincinnati. And Snell will have the home opener April 9 against St. Louis.

Tracy said Gorzelanny was moved ahead of Maholm because he matches up better with Houston. Gorzelanny is 0-3 with a 5.19 ERA against the Astros, Maholm 1-2 with a 6.53 ERA."

The first sixteen games of the season will go a long way toward setting the tone for the 2007 season. If the Pirates start out 10-6, they can play .450 ball for a month and folks will still be moderately satisfied. If they start out 0-6 or, God help us, 5-11, then we're going to be pissed if Gorzelanny lost two or three of those games pitching like the non-beer-drinking self we've seen this month.

Bob Walk went on and on at the end of the broadcast how there's never an open competition for anything going into Spring Training, how year after year teams say this, how year after year they more or less bring the team they decided they would bring in mid-February. We'll see what happens.

Once a year the Pirates have a chance to establish themselves as a competitive ball club. The only sign that a team is competitive is the standings. Once a team falls six or ten games below .500, they are deluding themselves if they think they are regarded as a competitive team. The Pirates screwed up 2006 with the 0-6 and 30-60 (!!) start. They have been kidding themselves, or simply selling tickets, when they talk like the .501 second half did anything to improve their reputation nationally.

So here's to hoping they bring their very best for the first half of April. It's important if this team wants to establish some credibility as a competitive ballclub.

exhibition: Wiggy at Pirates

Tom Gorzelanny will face Wiggy and the D'Rays at one.

... word from the broadcast booth is that Freddy Sanchez could open the season on the DL. Jose Castillo would start at second in that case.

... and Littlefield said (the booth reports) that the team has not decided to carry two or three catchers. Doumit has an option left, he said.

... and Littlefield also said (the booth reports) that Castillo will make the team either way. If he is not starting for the injured Freddy Sanchez, then he makes the team as a utility infielder.

... Pirates have played awful today. At the plate, they have made Jay Seo look like Greg Maddux. In the field, they have played like clowns.

... Pirates still have 35 players in camp after DeCaster, Brower, and McCutchen were cut today.

... Eldred 0-for-3 with two strikeouts.

Burnett furious

Another Paul Meyer notebook. Good for Burnett. He should be mad. Life isn't fair; there's lots to get mad about.

He'll be back soon.

Eldred walks

Walks are one of the main differences between Adam Dunn and Brad Eldred. They both strike out a lot. Dunn strikes out about 25% of the time and Eldred fans a bit more than that. The strikeouts, by themselves, are not that bad. The walks are the difference. Dunn will draw one walk for every two strikeouts, while Eldred is more of a one for every three strikeouts guy.

Walks, by themselves, are not that great. They are like infield singles achieved at the end of a long at-bat that may have been tiring for the pitcher.

Eldred's strikeout-to-walk ratio does not inspire confidence, but if he can learn to see a few more pitches and draw a few more walks, that could improve quickly. A man with his power would draw more intentional walks and face more nervous pitchers if he was a bit less of a sucker for the punch-out. For every additional walk he earns, the pitchers will give him a second for free. That's my theory. For this reason, it would be a lot easier for Eldred to improve his OBP that it would, say, for Jack Wilson to do the same. It's not such a wide gap, I think, between the man with this kind of power who really helps a team and the man with this kind of power who is not much of an asset.

So I have my eye on his walk numbers and, when I'm watching the game, I have my eye on his eye. This spring he has struck out a lot, even for him, which somewhat washes away the slight uptick in walks. The hopeful view thinks the strikeouts will come down and the walks will stick, but it's hard to be hopeful on this kind of sample size and this quality of sample consistency. Exhibition games are not the real thing or even close.

That said, he walked today and did not strike out. And, oh yeah, he hit a big home run.

Way to go, big guy.

Three pitchers sent to minors

Burnett, Youman, and Gryboski rode to Pirate City today, Paul Meyer reports. I'd guess this means Juan Perez is in as the second LH reliever, until Grabow returns. Meyer thinks Armas has clinched the fourth rotation spot, leaving Gorzelanny the fifth spot.

What's your take on MLB.com multimedia?

The good things about MLB.com multimedia are pretty self-evident. But, in my long experience with it, there's never been a year when the service has gone swimmingly and been delicious.

For example, right now I am trying to stream the archived audio of today's game. I want to listen. I bought the service for this purpose. I am seventeen minutes into the feed, and all that has been captured is WPGB, which is Fox talk radio. So I'm listening to what's obviously Republican party political propanganda right when I want to listen to baseball. When I attempt to forward the feed, it breaks, and I have to start over at the very beginning. What to do? I could bang my head against the wall and have more fun. I very much want to listen to the game feed, and I very much do not want to waste my time listening to something else. Did I pay for this? On the chance that this is a half-hour of WPGB that's been accidentally captured before the game begins, I am letting it run.

And Rowdietta, to make matters worse, is whining and jeering: "Why are you listening to this boring stuff?" When I tell the five-year-old that it is baseball, she says, "No it's not."

My long experience with MLB.com suggests that there's no way in hell they are going to respond like they care if I write to complain about this. Years ago I had much worse problems and was only contacted about 45 days after writing to them. And they more or less said, yes you are right, we can't get it to work on your computer type either.

So what to do? Rant at the moon? Blog about it? I dunno. But man I hate MLB.com today.

What's your take on this season's MLB.com offerings? I know Bones likes the tin-can-on-a-rope audio quality of the webcasts.

...indeed, the game starts 30 minutes into the feed. Some moron somewhere owes me a half-hour of my life.

exhibition: Twins and Pirates

The game starts at one o'clock. Ian Snell will pitch for the Pirates.

Plate discipline

Paul Meyer reports today that Jim Tracy has been lecturing Jose Castillo about "plate discipline."

"But coach," Jose said, "I already lost the extra weight."

Castillo still with the club

"As of today," Paul Meyer now quotes Tracy on the PG website.