Here come the Brewers

For the Oconomowoc Focus, Ryan Ratajewski sets the stage for the amazing 2005 season that will be enjoyed by the Brewers. The division will be tough, though, he writes:

Cincinnati is improving, and Pittsburgh always kills the Brew Crew. This should be the year the Brewers move out of the Central cellar, passing Pittsburgh. The Pirates traded their best player, Jason Kendall, to Oakland. It will be a battle to watch all season.

The Vegas odds makers haven't given Milwaukee a break. The odds are similar to last year, 101:1 to win the National League and 201:1 to win the World Series. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates (251:1) and the Kansas City Royals (401:1) have worse odds to win the World Series.

Hard to believe the Rockies have better odds to win it all.

Darlye Ward near the runway

Ward will grace this fundraiser hosted by Anand Jon.

Calling about Huff

Dejan Kovacevic handicaps the Huff derby.

Huff is defensively challenged wherever he plays. His third base makes Ty Wigginton look good. In the outfield, he's Daryle Ward, which is to say, he shouldn't be in the outfield.

If you say Aramis Ramirez is a lumbering first baseman, throw away Chris Shelton because he can't play a position, and see no future for J.R. House because he can't play a position, then it's not exactly consistent to go and acquire Aubrey Huff. Huff can hit but he's a DH, not a third baseman, and he's not the kind of player Littlefield has valued thus far in his term as GM.

I'm not saying it would be a mistake to acquire him. We need to score more runs. I just can't see the team reversing course and paying the high price Tampa Bay wants for a player who's much like a number of other guys the Pirates have valued less than most other teams.

Bloody Ahrns

As you resist the urge to drink beer this morning, consider this article by Frank Greve of the Detroit Free Press, who reminds us what made Iron City Beer so great in the early 1960s.

To season your beer, there's nothing like blood from your own lips.

Short history of Austin Kearns

Austin Kearns played some centerfield in 2003 (I presume when Griffey was hurt) but only managed a .822 zone rating which was not good. The man is a right-fielder.

He has a pretty long injury history. I gathered much, but not all, of the medical info from Will Carroll's Under the Knife archives:

May 2001 - Kearns tears ligament in his right thumb and misses two months of AA ball.

March 2002 - Kearns throws some kind of temper tantrum when he is demoted to AA ball at the end of spring training. Bowden says he has to go back and finish that year of AA ball he missed in 2001.

April 2002 - Kearns makes his major-league debut after hitting five home runs in four games at AA. Injuries on the big-league team create this chance for him.

April 2002 - Kearns puts up .455 / .571 / .727 numbers in 33 at-bats.

May 2002 - Kearns hits .261 / .377 / .477 in 88 at-bats.

June 2002 - Kearns hits .214 / .295 / .314 in 70 at-bats. Typical rookie inconsistency.

July 2002 - Kearns hits .333 / .413 / .478 in 90 at-bats.

August 2002 - Kearns hits .374 / .448 / .604 in 91 at-bats before injuring his left hamstring beating out an infield single. He's in a lot of pain, put on crutches, and declared all but done for year the next day. The magnitude of the injury is downplayed significantly within a week. But he does not return to action and does not win the Rookie of the Year award.

March 2003 - Kearns experiences difficulty with the hammy he tore and rehabbed in late 2002.

March 2003 - Kearns has surgery on his elbow to remove three bone chips and plays again in two weeks. Carroll writes on March 10: "Kearns has a reputation as hard to shut down, and as someone who can overdo it and damage his recovery, so the timing of the elbow procedure is probably not coincidental. Kearns' hamstring is of greater long-term concern." (WC)

April 2003 - Kearns hits .303 / .431 / .640 in 89 at-bats.

May 2003 - Kearns hits .287 / .368 / .455 in 101 at-bats.

May 2003 - Kearns injures his right (throwing) shoulder in a home-plate collision; injury is reported as a "shoulder bruise" (WC).

June, July 2003 - Kearns has no power at the plate as a result of the shoulder injury: he hits .229 / .319 / .337 in 83 June at-bats and .125 / .176 / .125 in 16 July at-bats.

August 2003 - After some weeks of rest, Kearns has surgery on his right (throwing) shoulder.

March 2004 - Kearns is not 100% in Spring Training yet remains "the only untouchable" on the Reds' roster (WC).

April 2004 - Kearns is slumping as he struggles to regain form lost to shoulder surgery: hits .137 / .290 / .333 in 51 April at-bats.

April 2004 - Kearns snaps his ulna, "the large bone on the medial side of the forearm," on an inside pitch (WC).

May 2004 - Kearns come back quickly from the snapped arm bone, but hits only .286 / .390 / .371 in 35 at-bats.

June 2004 - Kearns develops a mysterious wound, a "hole in his hand," that won't heal (WC). It originally "started as a blister, but has wavered in severity, never enough to get him back in the lineup" (WC). He is fitted with special gloves padded to protect bone spurs near his thumb but soon has surgery "to remove bone spurs, scar tissue, and close the wound on his right thumb" (WC). He strikes out in his only June at-bat.

July 2004 - Does not play.

August 2004 - Kearns has "a blood clot over the area of his thumb that was recently surgically repaired" (WC) and also misses a little time with pinkeye. In 26 at-bats, he manages a .308 / .400 / .346 line.

September 2004 - Kearns has his first decent month since May 2003, going .269 / .320 / .559 in 93 at-bats. He hits seven doubles and six home runs. FWIW, he homers off Wes Obermueller, Ben Hendrickson, Victor Santos, Frank Brooks, Jon Leicester, and Mark Prior.

October 2004 - Kearns goes 0-for-11 in the team's few games.

December 2004 - Right before Christmas, the Reds sign 35-year-old Joe Randa. They had considered playing Kearns at third base. After the Randa signing, GM O'Brien insists that Kearns remains a big part of the club. But there are rumors that the Reds will shop him for a proven starting pitcher or bullpen help.

The man has been hurt in the thumb, the hand, the forearm, the elbow, the shoulder, and the hamstring. No back problems! And nothing appears to be wrong with his head.

If it weren't for the one good month at the end of 2004, I'd wonder if he hadn't lost all of his skills to surgery. There's not much evidence that he ever "came back" from the May 2003 shoulder surgery until the last month of last season. And then we're looking for evidence that he came back from the snapped arm bone, the mysterious hole in his hand, the bone-spur surgery, the blood clot, and the pinkeye.

He's missed significant time for each of the last four years. If you put his good playing time into a table, you get this:

Year - # of good months
2002 - 4
2003 - 2
2004 - 1

Do you see a pattern?

If the Reds will send him to us for Matt Peterson, why not plug him into right field and see what happens? He could push Craig Wilson to first and Ward can start the year in the minors again. Even if Kearns only gives us one or two good months, that still has a lot of value, especially if the team has a lot of versatile depth around him.

Kearns wouldn't solve the centerfield problem, but it would be an adventure to acquire him. I'm game. How about you?

Ed Eagle writes up the rotation

The news on Kip Wells sounds good.

Hilarious water

Bob Smizik has some fun with Kevin McClatchy.

Third base

Dave Pinto is playing with new defensive measures. FWIW, his study of 2004 third-base performance shows that Chad Tracy, whose defense was so bad, he'll be moved elsewhere in 2005, was a little better than Ty Wigginton. Wigginton was better than Aramis Ramirez, and Ramirez was better than Chris Stynes, who had (I thought) an outstanding reputation for the glovework. Aubrey Huff's work at third grades below that of Ramirez but above that of Stynes. Rob Mackowiak was better than all of these guys but middle-of-the-pack overall.

Centerfield

Tike Redman says, "I am the man," as John Perrotto reports.

Dejan Kovacevic curiously calls Burnitz's decision to play for more money in Chicago a "snub." Maybe I was right about him. Either way, I don't know any Pirate fans who wanted him, so thank you Jim Hendry for making him a richer man.

Kovacevic outlines three options:

A handful of players who fit the Pirates' model are known to be available through trade. That includes three of note who are significantly younger than Burnitz, 35, and are on the block because of crowded outfields with their current employers:

Austin Kearns, 24, of the Cincinnati Reds has regressed slightly the past two seasons but already has 37 home runs in 253 career games. He will make $930,000 next season. The Reds are thought to be seeking a pitching prospect.

Aubrey Huff, 28, of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays has 86 home runs and 270 RBIs the past three seasons. He will make $4.75 million next season, $6.75 million the following season. The Devil Rays have asked for a top young starter and young infielder.

Eric Byrnes, 28, of the Oakland Athletics, hit .283 with 20 home runs and 17 stolen bases last season. He will make between $2 million and $2.5 million next season, pending arbitration. The Athletics want a young hitter or potential closer.

Asked if he would part with a pitching prospect -- the strength of the Pirates' system -- to improve the offense, Littlefield replied, "Absolutely. We realize, in our analysis, we've got more pitching at all levels than we do position players. Those types of things have been discussed, and I'm sure that will continue."

What the Pirates will not do, Littlefield said, is set aside leftover money from the 2005 budget toward future seasons. The team is on pace to have a payroll in the range of $33 million, well short of ownership's projected budget of $40 million.

Littlefield sounds like Cam Bonifay with that determination to blow through the available $7M.

If you could pick your poison of those three guys, who would you take?

Kearns has averaged 60 days per year on the DL the last three years. And he hasn't been able to duplicate his 2001 success. That said, if the Reds weren't saddled with Ken Griffey Jr., they might not be so impatient to give up on him. Being injury-prone is a bit like having a nasty platoon split. What pitching prospect would they take? As long as his initials weren't ZD or MG, I'd consider Kearns seriously - with the expectation that he would be on the DL for 60 games in 2005.

If the Devil Rays think Huff is worth Oliver Perez, they are out of their mind. Huff is a stud who would help us. He plays third base and first base, however. Since we can't push Ward to the outfield, this only helps the team in centerfield if they see Huff as someone who would release significant third-base playing time from Mackowiak, allowing Rob to play more center.

Huff is such a good hitter, though, I don't see a problem telling Wigginton or Ward to shove over and make room.

Byrnes looks like a good fit, but I'd think long and hard about parting with Mike Gonzalez for him. On one hand, Gonzalez is just a relief prospect. On the other hand, he's a really good one. Freddy Sanchez plus Mike Gonzalez strikes me as a high price for Byrnes. And the D'backs sound ready to take him or maybe another centerfielder off the market.

Perrotto sees chance

John Perrotto attributes the new enthusiasm for the team to the fact that there is no hockey.

Pirate fever

Ed Eagle reports on the delirium seizing western Pennsylvania. I believe the cure for this is eating a little bit of vitamin C every once in a while.

Seriously, though, Craig Wilson was asked to explain it.

Why are fans so excited about a team which is coming off a franchise-worst 12th consecutive losing seasons?

"I think the fans are getting more accustomed to the players and they are able to latch on to who they like," said Bucs slugger Craig Wilson, who has predictably fielded hundreds of questions about his new buzz-cut hairdo. "As players have been around here a little longer, the fans are getting to know us better and support us more. It's hard to get to know the guys who are only around for a year or two and then they are gone."

Me, me, me. Just like a clean-up hitter.

Win and we love you, Craig. Lose and you're dogmeat. No amount of personal charisma makes losing look good.

The surging enthusiasm dates to the 22-11 run that ended, more or less, with the Kris Benson trade for Ty "I'm Due" Wigginton.

Throw out the interleague games (the Bucs went 2-10 in interleague through the end of July, which is all the fault of those damn A's), and the Bucs were 45-40 at that point. In other words, the Bucs were holding their own against the familiar opponents. That winning streak began with the team ripping through Cincinnati, St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Florida. They'd have won more games if it wasn't for the Quixotic trip to San Juan and the All-Star break. My theory is that the local fans pay less attention to the team when they play real far away (and especially when the games start at 10pm eastern). So there was a good month there before the football season started when the Pirates were ripping up the league and looking like they actually had a good chance to finish strong.

Technically, there were two more months of baseball after the Benson trade, but in Pittsburgh, if the Bucs don't win and the Steelers are playing, fans will tune the team out.

Two areas where the Pirates need to improve in 2005: first, in interleague. They can't be intimidated or overwhelmed by the novel experience of playing in places like Yankee stadium. They don't want to start the interleague with a 2-10 skid. Second, they have to play meaningful baseball in August and September.

One way to impress upon the fans that the baseball is meaningful: don't turn July into a month where we dare the rest of the league to outbid one another for some of our better players. I realize that trading veterans at the deadline has been part of Littlefield's game, but it has to stop being the big event of the summer. Even if it means getting nothing for someone who will walk at the end of the year. The big event of the summer has to be yet another meaningful game against a division rival.

The laziness of Ollie

Alan Robinson, of AP fame, reports on the laziness of Oliver Perez.

Perez's first full season in the majors also was his longest in baseball, so he skipped pitching for hometown Culiacan in the Mexican league this winter.

"It was the first time I felt so tired, so that's why I rested a lot," Perez said. "I wanted to enjoy my family, have a vacation, just stay with my friends and try to forget a little bit of baseball."

What a slacker! Hard to believe I'm ready to name my next child (or cat) after him.

Minimum payroll

Ken Rosenthal suggests a minimum payroll would force the owners of the Pirates to spend more or sell the team to someone who will spend more.

Don't hold your breath

Dejan Kovacevic reports that Burnitz will probably not sign with the Bucs.

...oops, the don't hold your breath assessment was offered not by Burnitz's agent, but by Pedro Astacio's agent.

Castillo the Groundhog

In his 2005 Baseball Forecaster book, Ron Shandler provides some unusual information about player performance. With Jose Castillo, for example, we learn that 59% of his balls in play were groundballs. The league average is about 45%. That's a huge difference - about 33%. 16% of Castillo's hit balls were line drives, below the 19% league average. 24% were fly balls (compared to the average of 36%). Shandler or one of his writers comments that he "hammers ball into ground regularly but mediocre speed doesn't turn them into hits."

Line drives are the best things to hit - short of fly balls with enough distance to leave most parks - so a key to Castillo's growth as a hitter may be getting him to hit more line drives and fewer ground balls.

Last August we heard a lot about the leg kick that they asked him to use. And, after a three-week slump (or so; this is from memory), he seemed to get the hang of it before looking very tired and ready to call it a season.

Did Castillo use this leg kick in winter ball? If not, what, if anything, did he change in his approach at the plate? Supposedly, he hit well and for power down there.

Finally, did this leg kick - a "timing" thing I believe it was explained - have anything to do with this inability to get on or under pitches?

And what other smart things can you tell me about Castillo's development as a hitter? This inquiring mind wants to know.

Bucco fever

Dejan Kovacevic reports that lots of kids have it.

Of course they do, I say.

Andres Reiner

I wonder what this guy thinks of the so-called scouts vs. sabermetrics debate.

Seriously, the man has a peg leg. How could the Pirates have turned him down, so many years ago?

Super Rob

John Perrotto reports on what's it like to be Rob Mackowiak. To me, the biggest thing keeping him out of the lineup every day is his platoon split.

Sounds like my expectation that he would/could/should platoon with Wigginton at third won't be realized. That said, I expect my expectations to be wrong a lot. Baseball's just another soap opera. If everything went as we expected it to go, it wouldn't be interesting. And we wouldn't feel compelled to catch every installment.

No funny water in San Diego

Some sympathy for McClatchy coming out of San Diego.

Roaring hot stove this morning

I had to scoot my chair back, the hot stove is so hot.

Centerfield: the always-temperate John Perrotto handicaps the Ben Grieve - Tike Redman battle now shaping up. No reason to worry about the Pirates having more players than positions in January. Someone will probably get hurt. In the meantime, we're looking at a situation where Bay has to prove he can handle center, where Lawton has to prove he can handle left, and where Redman has to prove he play center and hit for something more than a somewhat-high empty batting average.

Joe Rutter reports the Bucs have made a competitive one-year offer to Burnitz. He also reports Burnitz wants to go only to a "contender." If Burnitz doesn't think the addition of Burnitz will help the Pirates contend in the NL Central, then he has no business signing a contract with the Pirates. Many reports suggest the Cubs will make Burnitz a happy man. In the meantime, Bucco fans such as Charlie are cautiously optimistic.

Caravan: Another report on the Bucco road show, this time from the Wheeling paper that once featured the work of Steve Novotney.

Rotation: Dejan Kovacevic looks into the big red book and sees the team's rate of arm injuries is not high. All the time we think or gripe that the Bucs are the worst at this, the worst at that, and so forth, when if we knew more about some of the other teams, then we'd know better. Fans everywhere complain about pretty much the same things. That was the point (if there really was one) of the Aramis Beltre post a few months ago. There are exceptions, I know.

Joe Rutter reports that the Bucs have interest in Pedro Astacio. I can't say I have a clue about this Pedro's current ability. John Perrotto catches up with a well-rested Oliver Perez.

the Funny Water rant: John Perrotto writes it up. John Mehno gives McClatchy the glass house treatment. Leeeny also comments. And here's how one out of town writer comments.

Rowdietta brought some kind of nasty virus home from daycare and now we're all laid low. Stay well, people.

Good morning

Welcome to the weekend. Four new stories are worth attention.

First, Dejan Kovacevic files his version of the funny water story. McClatchy was speaking at an annual luncheon for the Pirates media. The remarks were almost certainly prepared or premeditated then.

McClatchy argues that the other owners "can't control themselves" and Kovacevic lines up the eye-raising signings in Florida, Arizona, and Cincinnati. I would think the Bucs should be thrilled to see Cincinnati throw that kind of money at Eric Milton - maybe now they won't be able to afford Adam Dunn. Is the threat of one of those teams going bankrupt and costing the Pirates a share of the liability real?

Jack Wilson's strength, conditioning, and stamina are not there because of his appendectomy. I'm not expecting him to repeat the torrid start he had in 2004.

Hard not to like the new pinstriped home jerseys.

Tike Redman says that everyone knows he can hit and he admits his defense "slacked off" in the second half. The Pirates are talking to Jeromy Burnitz, reports Kovacevic. He also does the best of the various back-of-the-envelope payroll calculations:

The Pirates have $29.29 million committed to the 12 players signed for the coming season, minus an unknown portion of Lawton's $7.25 million salary that will be paid by the Cleveland Indians. If the final 13 players on the major-league roster are paid close to the minimum salary of $316,000, the total payroll would be $33.4 million minus the Lawton portion.

The team has projected that the payroll would end up close to $40 million, which would appear to leave Littlefield enough room to fulfill his wish list of a power bat and another starting pitcher.

So the Bucs are planning to spend as much as $6M-$12M on two players.

Burnitz doesn't appeal to me. I don't like acquiring guys fresh off seasons at altitude (think Chris Stynes) and Burnitz had his agent disrespecting the Pirates earlier in the offseason. Even if we could sign him for a reasonable price, we'd probably wind up with a grouser, a malingerer, or some other kind of unwelcome clubhouse presence. You can't hire players that regard the team as some kind of joke.

Get Your Monkeys

Tango posted a set of Marcel the Monkey forecasts. I should read Primer more often.

News from the Caravan

Leeeny has posted.

3:36 pm

Roger Mooney brings this great story in the Bradenton paper about the group of old-timers who gather 'round the old left-field wall to listen to the 1960 World Series finale.

Drank Some Funny Water

Kevin McClatchy wants a salary cap.

What was the context of these remarks? Here he looks skeptical last May. Evidently, no cameras were present to snap a more recent photo - this is all ESPN has on their wire. Did he call a press conference and stage these remarks? How did these thoughts come to appear on the AP wire this evening? I must be missing some part of the story.

Ed Eagle also has the story. I'm not sure who had it first, Eagle or Alan Robinson of the AP. Maybe they wrote it together over a bottle of funny water.

Bobby Hill and Jose Castillo

We need better defensive statistics. We often hear about how bad or limited Bobby Hill looks out at second, and how good or promising Jose Castillo looks out there. But what do our numbers say?

Here's another tidbit from the Bill James Handbook which I grudgingly admire in so many ways. Castillo played 951 innings at second base. His fielding percentage was .980 and his Range, and I sure don't know how they compute that for this book, was 5.03. Middle of the pack for second basemen.

Bobby Hill's fielding percentage was .994 and his range was 5.61 in 255 innings. That's better than Castillo and better than Castillo.

Was Castillo better at turning the double play? He turned 81 in 951 innings. That's one every 11.7 innings. Hill turned 22 in 255 innings. That's one every 11.6 innings. Hmmm.

How does that grab you?

FWIW, I still think Castillo has more potential with the bat. And Bobby Hill was one hell of a pinch-hitter in 2004.

Friday Piracy news

Rob Biertempfel tells us about Ollie's offseason. Sam Ross Jr. reports on the Caravan. Dejan does as well for the PG. Kovacevic also follows up on JVB's labrum surgery, which went well enough. The Bucs signed Rick White and Andy Wilson, Jack's brother, to minor-league deals.

Kovacevic also reports that season ticket sales are picking up. The team hopes to average 25K per game this year.

Leeeny off schmoozing

I'll be curious to hear how her Thursday night schmooze session went.

P1r4t3s

Via Boing Boing, Pirates of the Caribbean, translated into "hacker."

Gibbs: d00d y0u w4nt teh bl4ck p34rl 4g4in????//
Cap'n Jack: y34h i g0t s0m3 l3v3r4g3
Gibbs: ok ill g3t s0m3 cr4zy d00ds t0g3th3r
The Good Pirates: 4rrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!!111
Cap'n Jack: i m teh cr4zy
Will: d00d wtf wtf??
Gibbs: j4ckz 4 l1ttl3 w31rd
Will: y34h, t0tlly
Gibbs: b4rb0ss4 fuxx0r3d h1m
Will: suxx0r

I guess I shouldn't be surprised to learn that hackers are fans of p1r4c33.

Pitchouts

I'm not a big fan of the Bill James Handbook, which I purchased, sight unseen, because I heard it had lefty/righty splits for ballpark effects. The book looks slapped-together and there are some really worthless things in it. (More on that later, maybe.) On the other hand, I would buy it again. It wasn't that expensive and it's my conviction that you can never have too many books. And it's full of little tidbits of statistical trivia worth considering. Pitchouts provide one example.

First, the park effect thing. FWIW, PNC, the last three years, played well for average for both lefties and righties, with index scores of 106 and 102. But it depressed home run totals, with index scores of 94 and 89. In other words, despite the short trip to the right-field porch, PNC hitters have not been clubbing a lot of home runs from the left-handed side of the plate. And it's even tougher for right-handers, who hit 10% fewer home runs in PNC than they did in the average park. In 2004, the score was 83, which I think has to do with the nasty weather the team experienced - remember the black clouds that followed them everywhere? And all that said, singles aren't tough to find. It's a small-ball park.

Anyway, the thing I wanted to post about is the pitchout numbers, which are provided in a section of managerial stats. The Pirates were among the league leaders in pitchouts in 2004 - by a pretty wide margin. Dusty Baker's team called 56 and Mac's team called 55. Felipe Alou's Giants? 2. Bruce Bochy's Padres? 14. Larry Bowa's Phillies? 23. Bob Brenly's D'Backs? 25. Bobby Cox's Braves? 4. Phil Garner's Astros? 7 (in 74 games). Art Howe's Mets? 19. Clint Hurdle's Rockies? 11. Tony LaRussa's Cardinals? 4. Jack McKeon's Marlins? 19. Dave Miley's Reds 8, Frank Robinson's Expos, 1, Jim Tracy's Dodgers, 7.

So the NL breaks down into teams that called pitchouts a lot (the Cubs and the Pirates) and teams that called hardly any. And there also appears to be a correlation between the success of a given team and the number of pitchouts. The playoff teams called relatively few. The champs called only four - and that from a manager with a reputation for tinkering.

More curious is the fact that the pitchout numbers plummeted for many of those guys. Tony LaRussa called 79 in 1997. Dusty Baker called 96 in 1996. Bruce Bochy called 65 in 1996. Phil Garner called 82 in 1996. Jimy Williams called more than 100 in 2000 and 2001 but only 16 in his 88 games last year. Clearly the pitchout is on the wane.

Now, I hate the pitchout. It's the two-point conversion of baseball with more of the risk and less of the thrill. It's not a good percentage play, especially when you are managing a team with guys who can struggle to throw strikes. Why give away a ball?

Here's my questions about this. (1) Jason Kendall's caught stealing rate shot up last year. Were they calling a lot of pitchouts - relative to the rest of the league - to help pad those numbers? He had a reputation for having a rag arm. Did they rehabilitate that just in time to trade him? (2) Why have managers like Tony LaRussa abandoned the pitchout? The drop in pitchouts is widespread enough. The reason should be fairly common knowledge. (3) Will the Pirates call so many pitchouts this year?

I hope not.

John Perrotto all burnt out

John Perrotto taunts the rest of the staff in the toy department.

Obviously, I think, he doesn't "get it." File that one under "misanthropy." How can you love the sport and hate the fans?

Nevermind - that combination is common enough. Misanthropes abound in all escapist communities.

John Perrotto does great work. But maybe it's time for a vacation?

If so, he better hurry. Spring training is just around the corner.

... now, maybe I rushed to judgment there. Perrotto's almost chummy in his Baseball America chat.

JVB out

No maybes about it. Ed Eagle has the story.

PECOTA projections released

By the email they send to subscribers, I was just told that Baseball Prospectus has released their 2005 50th-percentile PECOTA projections. This is the fourth set of projections I've looked at so far this off-season - first, the ones mysteriously slapped into the Bill James Handbook; second, the ZiPS forecast from Baseball Primer; third, the forecasts in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster, and now these.

The only surprise that jumps out at me is Brad Eldred. PECOTA loves him, projecting 20 doubles and 20 homers in only 364 at-bats. With 127 strikeouts for a final line of .256 / .326 / .485. Not too shabby.

All the forecasts which fail to work with last-minute playing-time adjustments fail to impress me, overall. Why 364 at-bats? All the systems generate those numbers by comparing the player's profile to that of other players. Or so I gather. Of the 20 guys most like Eldred, that's the rough average of the playing time they received in the year after they put up stats that were so like Eldred.

These aren't forecasts so much as they are ways of summarizing what the player's career has been recently. PECOTA says that Eldred has shown enough power. We should focus on that and not on his inability to make contact. Guys like Eldred have hit enough big-league doubles and homers to be useful. Using PECOTA as evidence in a Brad Manifesto, demanding that management release Daryle Ward and give Brad the first 350 at-bats at first base, would be totally naive.

Here are some other general thoughts I have about forecasts. First of all, you have to read everything at Tango's link on the right. The difference between all the forecasting systems isn't as great as you'd think. But it can be significant.

The Bill James forecast bugs me because there's no explanation of a methodology. They just magically appear. I find Shandler's book appealing and compelling because so much of the methodology is explained. I don't know enough about how the ZiPS forecasst is put together, but it appears to be some kind of juiced-up Marcel the Monkey. The PECOTA system creeps me out because it smacks of eugenics and late-nineteenth-century social Darwinism. I believe it is the only system to put great weight on a player's height and weight. This is why we're always hearing that Khalil Greene is too big for a shortstop. Or is he too slow? Memory fails.

There may some advantage to this system. Only time will tell. The 2004 PECOTA forecasts did not impress me terribly much. There were some hits but there were some misses. And worse, there were a lot of fools who wouldn't believe their lying eyes because players were outperforming their PECOTA forecasts. So that besmirched their reputation a little more for me. The BP guys have struggled to balance their snake-oil hyperbolic marketing against its disciple-producing embarrassments. If they want to be taken as scholarly and serious, they will need to be more scholarly and serious as they market their product.

All that said, maybe PECOTA will start kicking ass right now.

In the meantime, I'm a little creeped out by the decision to only compare guys who are six-four two-hundred to other guys in that ballpark. Perhaps I am too sensitive. Scouts have been looking at size and weight distribution for years and years so there must be something to it. When will PECOTA only compare pear-shaped players, then, to other pear-shaped players? Or barrel-chested guys only to other barrel-chested guys? Are all 200-pounders really that much more alike than any other subset of guys in the 180-to-220 range?

The rigid comparison of players only to other players of the same baseball age creeps me out too. Don't we all know twenty-six year-olds with bodies that look twenty-one? Or forty-four? Just because peak years, on average, tend to clump together, that doesn't mean that everyone's body ages and matures on the same clock. Last I checked, for example, there was no one age when (a) puberty begins or (b) hair falls out. Maybe Brad is an "old" 24-year-old. I don't know. But it does sound like Neil Walker is a young 19 or whatever he is.

There's also the issue of treating height and weight and age as definite facts with the same precision as, say, the number of strikeouts someone accumulated. Players change weight over the course of a season. Folks lie about their heights and weights - pretty much everyone fudges a little bit. One guy listed as "200" may really be 210 for most of the season; another one might be 190. At least half of all the guys who claim to be six feet tall are really five-eleven. And many of the foreign-born players fudged their age to prolong their prospect status. For such reasons, I don't see the justification to give such weight to physical profile when making a projection.

Any pearls of wisdom, dear readers, on the subject of the various competing projection systems? Has Rotowire released theirs yet? My subscription lapsed so I don't know.

Eagle on the outfield

Ed Eagle reviews the outfield situation. Eagle talks in plain language about Tike Redman's disappointing defense.

The headline for Eagle's piece strikes me as spot on. Littlefield's favorite term for having "a margin for error" is "flexibility." Or so I interpret all that talk about needed more flexibility.

Call me a geek, but I'm pretty excited about the addition of Ben Grieve.

Read the book, Anthony

Another great Q & A with DAY-un Kovacevic.

I share the optimism for Jose Castillo.

One Anthony gets a nice read-the-friggin'-manual answer, too.

And somehow he finds a way to talk about hockey, hockey, hockey. He must be homesick. Don't tell me the honeymoon is over already!

JVB, torn labrum, same sentence

Dejan reporting bad news.

All hail Mike Webster

Greg Garber's five-part biography begins here.

Rest in peace, Mike.

Bucs add Ben Grieve

Some of you predicted this - kudos for that.

Red rover, red rover, Ben Grieve come over. Grieve, the 1998 AL Rookie of the Year, will provide a reality-check for Jason Bay, who still has a long way to go as he establishes himself as an enduring and productive big-leaguer.

Grieve's comparable players - see the above link - are pretty good. This is another good low-risk, high-upside signing. Grieve is no savior but he has a great career OBP. Like Matt Lawton, he's of more value to the impatient young Pirates team than he would be to many other teams. We need more guys who can set an example of working the count. Craig Wilson has decent on-base skills but leaning in and getting hit by a pitch is not a method that will work for everyone.

Grieve's one of the new generation of low-BA, high-OBP hitters that don't impress too many people because he strikes out a lot. And like Mackowiak, who now avoid arbitration after getting a sweet raise, Grieve hasn't been able to hit left-handed pitching. That said, he crushed lefties in the very few at-bats he was given against them last year.

Hitting lefties or not hitting lefties, he's a player that fits with Mac's Shuffle Boogie management philosophy. Give us all your guys with vicious platoon splits. There's no doubt they are undervalued on the free agent market.

Now, what's the story with his defensive ability? I remember him being described as a statue in the Oakland outfield. Anyone have any good idea how his defensive abilities rate? Does he have a good arm? What does it say on his Strat card?

Congratulations 2005 World Champion Pittsburgh Steelers!

Steeler fans everywhere awoke this morning hungover and beaming with pride, basking in the beatific vision of another world championship. The title was sealed before kickoff on Sunday, as the lowly Eagles thumped the even-more-lowly Falcons. The Eagles win left the Eagles and the Pats as the only two potential championship challengers. However, players, coaches, and fans alike all recognized the obvious:

"We killed both those teams already. We're the champs!," concluded one jubilant fan. "The Steelers are the best team in the NFL," quipped Bill Belichick. "There's no way we could ever beat them." The Steelers were seen celebrating their fifth world championship during pre-game warm-ups. "We were really happy, knowing we were the best and all that. We just wanted to go out in this meaningless 'playoff' game and have fun," giggled a defensive back. "Ben was real loose, and was just enjoying himself. In the huddle he was all like 'Watch this, I'll do Bradshaw', then he'd hit Randle El with a strike. Then he was like 'Now I'm Slash' and he'd tuck it under and sprint up the middle. Then one time he was like 'Watch me do O'Donnell'. It was fun to have the title cinched up so we could just clown around," said Nijinsky.

Congratulations Champs!

Baseball America: Bucs top ten prospects

John Perrotto, of Beaver County Times fame, previews the Bucs' top ten prospects here. I won't pretend to know more about this than he does. And I won't pretend that there's anything set in stone or undeniably certain about his rank-ordering.

I'll wait for the book to get published to read the write-ups, which are now available only to subscribers.

End football season

All things considered, it was a damn good football season. I'd rather go to the AFC championship and lose than not go at all. Some of you may disagree - to those I prescribe a hair of the dog that bit them. I'm not the least bit bothered by the fact that Cowher hasn't won half the Championship games he's been in. Better than not getting there at all.

As a young boy I bawled my eyes out watching the Steelers lose in the snow and the cold to the Browns. It was some kind of season-ending loss. That's the memory. I've searched for the game - and can't find it. My memory of my first Pirates game turned up in Retrosheet just as I remembered it, but this memory looks pretty faulty. Maybe it was the 1977 divisional playoff at Denver. Maybe it was some other team that lost? Inconceivable, but not impossible. I watched a lot of football in the 1970s and while the Steelers were #1 with me, I also developed attachments to other teams and had a list of favorite teams.

Anyway I remember one of the players, someone who looked like Jack Ham, in the big coat they wore on the sidelines, with his head down. I was watching the game by myself. My father came into the room. He was always more of a Penn State fan than a Steeler fan and mainly watched football on Saturday, not Sunday.

"Why are you crying?" he asked. I think he knew why but wanted to make sure.

"Because the" I blubbered.

He pointed to the TV. "That was a football game," he said. He also said, without saying it out loud, "it's not something you cry about." He was part mad and part gentle about it. Point made.

That's the memory.

I always like the end of the football season. The end of the football season signals the end of television watching for a few months. I doubt I'll watch the Super Bowl. Who gives a damn? Not me. If there's another wardrobe malfunction, I can find the video on the internet if I really want to see it. I'm not a fan of television, which is why I keep a blog, I think, because TV is not an efficient way to get information. I'm on the internet a lot when I want to answer questions.

With TV, there's too much interruption and foot-dragging so that we can see more ads. It's almost as bad as the nationally-syndicated talk radio shows. So long, stupid Levitra ads. So long, stupid car ads and beer ads. I won't miss you. So long, semi-moronic television analysts. There were two ads I enjoyed watching all year - the one where the guys are slacking off and dancing to Salt n Pepa in the office, and the one they showed yesterday with the athletes wearing "warrior" headgear. The rest of it was a huge expanse of wasted time. I know it's trite to bitch about television and it's tired to brag about not watching it. But that doesn't change the way I feel about it.

Another thing. The end of the football season also signals the start of the fantasy baseball season. And the start of that signals the start of spring. So long, old man Winter. Your days are numbered now.

D'oh!

Stranger things have happened.

Patriots at Steelers

As for the game today, Bones has the forecast in the comments to the previous post on the big game.

Zach Duke

Dejan writes up the story of Zach Duke as it stands today. In his notes, he catches Craig Wilson worrying about Ben Sheets on Opening Day.

Game tomorrow

What else is there to think about tonight?

Polamalu and Rooney

Two good reads from the Beaver County Times. First, this Chris Harlan bio of Troy Polamalu. He could move to cornerback if needed. Yeah, but can he play third base?

And here we have Mr. Rooney saying he'll keep Cowher for twenty years if possible. This I agree with a lot:

"Teams that make changes, that's their business and I don't want to call them names," Rooney said. "When you make a change, you are starting all over. I think that's foolish because it's almost like an expansion team where you're going back to the beginning.

Almost never does firing the coach, changing the GM, etc., produce immediate positive results.

Curve hot stove event

Leeeny attended. Somewhere, Neil Walker's truant officer is prowling the streets.

Our warrior on the mound

Red rover, red rover, Albie Lopez come over.

Winter Ball roundup

Ed Eagle talks to Brian Graham about the players who played winter ball. Castillo played in the outfield. I'd like to see him develop the power needed from a corner outfielder.

No Maddox, No Hope for Steelers

Looking through a stack of Post-Gazette NFLXtras, I'm pretty taken with the September 20, 2004 edition. Above the section title, there's a big picture of Maddox, doubled over in pain, holding his elbow, with a yellow hanky on the field next to him. Below it, Ron Cook has an editorial that never made the web (though it does appear to have been once posted here) called "No Maddox, No Hope for Steelers."

I quote: "There's no way to soften the loss of Tommy Maddox .... The Steelers' season is finished."

A lot of people agreed with Cook (but not this guy, FWIW).

Big Ben, Godsend indeed. It's not the QB that was a sudden, surprising gift so much as it was the whole season.

One game to win now. I say they do it. This time we get the flukey touchdown. Steelers 17, Patriots 6.

Built from the storm, for the storm

NYT story here.

Pardon me while I wipe a tear from me eye.

Life as a GM

You may have already seen this story about Billy Beane getting upset with reported and rumored trade offers. I'll link to it here because I won't find it again if I don't link to it.

Beane says only him and his assistant know much of anything about the talks he has with other GMs. My guess would be that the same is true with most of the GMs around the league. Loose lips sink ships. No doubt they have some kind of understanding among each other. If what GM A says to GM B winds up in GM B's newspaper, GM A is not talking to GM B again. In a sense, a big part of the job description for big-league GM must be Professional Keeper of Secrets.

I wonder if they enjoy that part of the job, or if it's just a burden or irritation to always have to keep your mouth shut when you could easily set the record straight and vindicate yourself from some of the sillier charges made by fans and media people.

All hail Mahrn

Leeeny attempts to describe, with research, the eloquence that is Myron Cope.

More snacks

It's one of those days where I don't get to eat and have to live vending machine-to-mouth.

Meet Preacher Key. This kind of stuff is not going away anytime soon.

Bucco promotional calendar was released today. Hats off to the people who come up with these ideas. I love that they'll play a game as the Crawfords. Jack Wilson in the Box day is great fun, too. Kids Swim Goggles Day? Why not. Hopefully one eye is nothing but a black patch.

Come to think of it, where is Eye Patch Day? ..nyar..

More nuts

Joe Liggins was seen with near? LaTroy Hawkins at some kind of Indiana basketball event (scroll down).

Hawkins is an interesting character for Pirate fans to consider. He's clearly the best reliever in the Cubs bullpen. He's one of the best in the National League. But last year he struggled some and some Cub fans are ready to shit-can him for a retread like Ryan Dempster. Hendry and Baker are playing it cool about the closer situation, not wanting to give someone the title and the added pressure. The Cubs are all about trading or not trading Sammy Sosa right now.

I know all this because Hawkins is on one of my teams in a deep NL-only keeper league. I look in at my players every now and then.

The story with Hawkins appears to be this. Dusty Baker knows that Hawkins is his best reliever. Some Chicago reporters have written that the Cubs intend to use him in the eighth inning. With that, we've also seen reports that the people in Chicago have come around to the way of thinking that regards the eighth inning as more important than the ninth inning. And it is, you know. If your setup man gives up a game-tying run, your best reliever - if that's your closer - doesn't get the chance to keep the lead.

It looks to me like the Cubs intend to use Hawkins as a two-inning closer and/or an eighth-inning setup guy. If he gets three easy outs in the eighth and hasn't been overworked lately, Dusty Baker is not taking him out of the game.

This is relevant to Pirate fans for two reasons. One, we're gonna play the Cubs a lot. Two, some Pirate fans were upset when the team decided to re-sign Jose Mesa to pitch the ninth inning. As I figure it, the Mesa signing ensures that our best relievers, Mike Gonzalez and Salomon Torres, pitch in seventh and eighth innings. All hail Jose Mesa, he's a big gob of mature guile, but in terms of pure stuff, he's not the relief ace of the future. Now all we need to do is find a way to convince Joe Liggins to not yank Gonzalez and/or Torres if they have a quick 1-2-3 inning.

Another interesting Pirate-related article is this one. Here Rocky Nelson, the cornerman from the 1960 World Series team, complains about the high salaries of modern baseball players. There really is something to this. There's no doubt that the average baseball fan's attachment to the players has changed, especially over the last thirty years, and the high salaries are a big part of it. Is it any wonder that players are less respected and loved? One big complaint about "sabermetrics" is that its practioners don't love the game and the players the same way the old-timers did. How can we?

More so than football, baseball only succeeds as an entertainment on a daily basis. It's a soap opera. Historically, the stars of the soap opera were average Joes. Not so any more. The players are not only above-average in terms of raw ability. They are also well into the top tax bracket. In the decades after the Great Depression, a middle class appeared and prospered in America. There had never really been a middle class before, and more and more people are now becoming aware of the fact that this middle class has disappeared. Over the course of the century, the players have migrated into the ranks of the economic elite. Who really cares? Clearly some people - like Rocky Nelson - they care.

Is it any wonder that one of the tenets of the new way of following the game insists so stridently that most players are close to "replacement level" in terms of talent and ability? I wonder if the rising salaries are a context that at least partially explains why so many fans are eager to get their rocks off telling the world that Rob Mackowiak is "just average." There's a definite desire to take most of these guys down a notch in some of the writing about the sport.

Sports Illustrated has been profiling players in way that reminds me of GQ. This is not the way to go, I think. People turn to sports for a diversion from the drudgery and predictability and (sometimes) hopelessness of their everyday lives. Reminding fans that the players now live the Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous - even if most of them don't - is not the way to do it. I don't want to read about how much they like certain kinds of cars or Bacco Bucci shoes. It doesn't add to my pleasure when I get back to watching the games. If we're going to talk about their money, maybe we should be talking about the players who invest it responsibly. Or maybe we shouldn't talk about the money at all. There's plenty else to discuss.

Mixed nuts

Good news, bad news with Kip Wells:

"I can still tell that my circulation is still off," Wells told Houston station KRIV-TV Tuesday night. "Like when we decided when we did the surgery, we were not looking for the perfect solution, we just need some relief."

The problem was particularly troublesome when temperatures dropped. Wells said he went through one six-game stretch last season when his middle finger was numb. He said he could hardly feel the baseball and was hit hard.

"It would just go numb," Wells told the station. "So I would just be out there basically trying to effectively pitch and get people out with a finger that felt kind of like a sausage. Try to throw a slider on the outside corner to get a guy out with two men on and two outs. It's a tough assignment with a numb finger."

That from Jim Molony's report on Wells' prospects for 2005. We need this guy healthy.

MLB.com reporters Ed Eagle and Jim Molony describe the second-base job as a Spring-Training competition between Freddy Sanchez and Jose Castillo. Eagle has far more detail; Molony's piece profiles all the middle infielders in the league.

"I look forward to beating them," says Ty Wigginton when asked about the Mets and their offseason spending. He describes the Pirates as a team on the rise for the Asheville Citizen-Times. Look for Wigginton to emerge as the Pirates' MVP this season.

Leeeny found that Big Ben song she was looking for.

Tony Alvarez signed a minor-league deal with the White Sox. Mark Guthrie did the same with the D'Rays.

Finally, the Rockies, who are going to field a crazy-young team of contact-hitting prospects, will switch to a sleeveless jersey look at the request of their players. Add another piece to the mountain of evidence that most ballplayers want nothing more than a chance to play for Pittsburgh. Sure, most of them repress this desire pretty effectively ...

Thoughts on the NFL playoffs

Peter King leads the Overreaction Brigade. Don't let your in-laws mess with your game, Peter.

Pirate Soul Museum

Maybe not what you expected. Nyargh.

Can't win the big one

Huh.

Years ago Cowher was asked why the Steelers had trouble scoring in the red zone. He said he wasn't aware that they had any trouble scoring in the red zone. And regardless, so long as they kept getting into the red zone, they had nothing to worry about.

It's good to have Steeler football in the middle of January. Not much else to say about that.

Mackowiak's arbitration case

Joe Rutter has the numbers here. Dejan Kovacevic has the story too. I think he'll lose. In every other case, I thought the Pirates got a good deal with their players. I don't doubt that Mackowiak isn't worth what he wants, but I do doubt the Pirates will need to pay that figure.

Few teams have relied as much as the Pirates on super-utility-guys. Until Rob hits left-handed pitching better than most right-handed pitchers, he'll have a hard time finding comparable players on other teams that make what he asked for.

Perhaps Rob knows that he will lose his case and submitted his number knowing he would lose. It's not a bad gambit for a guy who is trying to throw off the super-utility label. Let everyone pay a lot of attention to what he did and didn't do last year for the team. I doubt the publicity can hurt him in his more important case, i.e., his case for similar playing time in 2005.

All hail Kovacevic

It must be hard to be so right all the time. I'm not being sarcastic or ironic.

He does a little bit of everything in this week's Q & A. This is especially good:

An analysis of most successful teams would indicate that [what] the Pirates should be doing at this stage with extra money is setting it aside to ensure they can keep at least some of their young talent down the road. That is doubly true of those that do not spend much.

Also his observation that the team would strip down expenses prior to any sale.

The fan's worst nightmare would be this. Littlefield has been setting aside money to retain the worthy past their arbitration years. The team is sold, Littlefield is fired, and the new owners pocket the Jason Bay savings account.

I'm not rooting for a change in ownership for more or less just that reason. Littlefield strikes me as competent. I'd rather see him be the GM for the next ten years than see a new ownership haul in some new guy who will make his own rookie GM errors. Some internet writers are fond of licking the boots of guys like Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta, but I doubt they are really much better at what they do than Littlefield. There are some incompetent GMs. We all know that. But the differences between the competent ones are exaggerated, in my humble opinion. All they need is a reasonable plan, the patience to execute it, and the ability to hire other competent people.

Business social

A business social? (scroll down).

What is that? Is it like a church dance? Or non-alcoholic beer? Let the socials be socials. If you are going to have a party, dim the lights and play the music.

Tuesday links o' plenty

Here's what I just read in my one hop on the internets today. In no particular order.

Josh Fogg and Craig Wilson signed. Fogg got $2.15M, reports Joe Rutter. With incentives, I see in Kovacevic's report. Dejan Kovacevic also reports that Craiggers got $3M. Wow. Less than I expected, in both cases. Mackowiak may go the distance with the process. I can imagine the conversation. Pirates; You are a utilityman. Mackowiak: Not-uh. Pirates: You are a utilityman. Mackowiak: How many utilitymen manage 550 plate appearances? Pirates: You are a utilityman. Mackowiak: I am a starter. Etc. etc.

All hail Dick LeBeau. And another toast for JC, who put that link in the comments. More in a moment, maybe.

...okay, here's more. At Baseball Prospectus the anonymous Bucco writer talks smart about salary numbers. Def. worth your time, I think.

Pirate links for you

I'm catching up with the weekend's reading today. Let me know in the comments if I missed anything.

Jack's older brother Andy Wilson will attend minor-league spring training, says Rhiannon Potkey of the Ventura County Star, who also provides a biography of their relationship.

George Vecsey of the New York Times lumps the 90-92 Bucs with the lose-four-Super-Bowl Buffalo Bills. Shudder.

Ed Eagle writes about rebuilding and Ty Wigginton. Rebuilding doesn't mean play only young guys. I scratch my head about Wigginton. If his defense was better, I'd have a lot more patience with him. Eagle quotes one unnamed Bucs player saying Ty will be the team MVP this year.

Speaking of Ty, UNC-Asheville retired his number.

Joe Rutter catches up with Mike Johnston, who was, for a month or two there, one of the better stories of 2004.

Dejan Kovacevic has lots of news. See his notebook and today's report on the fifth starter job. Not a lot of competition right now. Maybe the intimidating Steve Sparks will sign. Otherwise, Zach Duke has a clear shot at the spot, I think. I can easily imagine him beating out Vogelsong and Dave Williams.

More Dejan. This report on Ollie throwing again. Jose Bautista has a sprained wrist. Is this guy going to be injury-prone? Also Cota digs Santiago, which doesn't surprise me. We'll all be pulling for Graham Koonce in Spring Training. Sounds like he has a little more potential than Damon Minor. It will be interesting to see if one of those guys can make the team, especially if they have a monster 7-homer spring like Minor did a year or two ago.

Finally, Steelers open as three point home dogs. Take that to the bank. Dude misses a couple of 60% field goal tries and everyone thinks the Steelers are ripe for the plucking. I'd like to see the Patriots manage both a interception return and a punt return. They'll need them.

Morning after

* Right after the game, Cowher was talking about the two returns:

We overcame two returns for touchdowns.  If you look at the game, the big difference in the first half was the punt return for a touchdown and then in the second half, you have an interception return for a touchdown. Then we move the ball all the way down and we fumble.

And reminded us:

I thought defensively, we played a good football game.  We did not give up a touchdown. They gave up three points throughout the day.

Quotes from this link.

* The PG notebook includes this:

At halftime, New York owned an eight-minute advantage in time of possession. By game's end, the advantage belonged to the Steelers, 39:42 to 31:22. In short, after halftime, the Steelers' offense had a 2-to-1 edge in time of possession.

I'm going to bitch about the first-half playcalling this week when I get the chance. I did not like it. Too many shots down the field. They can't let the other team have the time-of-possession advantage. Not ever.

"When we're on the field longer, we're feeling good," guard Alan Faneca said. "We're kind of energized by being out there."

* Porter recognizes the twelfth man:

"They say home-field advantage is not really an advantage," Joey Porter said, "but I disagree. I applaud our fans. I promise you our fans had a lot to do with [Doug Brien] missing those kicks."

But also note that neither one of those kicks was a gimme.

* Polamalu doesn't watch football.

"I've never watched a football game in my life," safety Troy Polamalu said, promising that wouldn't change today. "But, hopefully, the game goes into, like, 50 overtimes and lasts a few days. I'd be OK with that."

I'd guess he doesn't play video games, either.

* Chico Harlan describes the tailgating scene. The Trib has an article interviewing fans.

* Foote called the win a miracle but no, it was not a miracle. It's been forever since the Steelers won a big game like that so I can understand thinking it was miraculous. But it wasn't even close to a miracle. The Jets were the lucky ones with the two returns.

* Kevin Smith describes the kicking conditions at Heinz Field:

Struggling kickers are nothing new to Heinz Field.

The wind swirls constantly, and the open end to the river has caused constant misery -- just ask Kris Brown and Todd Petersen.

Steelers punter Chris Gardocki is still learning the wind patterns in Heinz Field.

Reed admitted he is a Weather Channel junkie the day before a game. He also understands the changeable weather patterns which are part of Pittsburgh.

"It was 75 the other day at practice,'' Reed said. "I was sweating and the ball was jumping. Today it was cold, but if you got it solid ...''

In this game, the secret was that the open end was perhaps the easiest.

The wind was in Brien's face when he missed his tries into the closed end of the stadium. It was behind Reed on kick.

"(Brien) had it a little tougher with the wind at his face,'' Reed said. "You could tell by the way his first kick started straight and started drifting.''

* Willie Williams had a big game. That's one a few stories about the little guy.

* The Trib-Review notebook reminds me that the playcalling was not so shabby on those key plays in the second half.

* Sam Kusic writes about the things the fans do. I have an interesting story about the end of this game that I'll save for later. It was a little creepy.

* In football, it's the last impression that matters most. Looks like the Jets kicker will go down as the scapegoat. He should change his name to Doug Belinda.

* Another common theme to some of the post-game coverage is Jesus Loves the Steelers. Alan Robinson of the AP, for example, puts Foote's miracle quote right before Hartings' God-must-like-us quote.

* Finally, it sounds like the team emerged from the game without significant injury. All hail that.

It was the Jets who got lucky

Powered by Baltica 6 ... this is what I'm thinking as I can't sleep and can't enjoy the damn dome game.

This year, all NFL kickers were 185 for 257 in their attempts of field goals of 40-49 yards. That's a 72% success rate. We know Heinz Field is a tough place to kick. It's not a dome. The stadium is pretty open and exposed to winds. It's cold. Not many 40+ field goals are even attempted in Heinz Field. I'd guess the odds of any pro kicker making a 40+-yarder in the cold and in Heinz Field are closer to 50%. But throw all that out. Let's be generous. Let's assume that Brien had a 72% chance of making either one of those field goals. Odds of missing two in a row: 28% * 28% = 7.8%. Same odds as Jason Bay, a .280 hitter, getting two consecutive hits in a 2004 game.

There were eleven punts returned for a touchdown in the NFL in 2004. In 256 games. Odds of getting a punt return for a TD in a game: 11/256 or 4.3%.

There were 53 interceptions returned for touchdowns in the NFL in 2004. In 256 games. Odds of getting an INT run back for a TD in a game: 53/256 or 20.7%.

Odds of getting both a punt return TD and an interception return TD: 4.3% * 20.7% or 0.9%. Same odds as a pitcher or me or you or any other .094 hitter getting back-to-back hits in consecutive at-bats.

7.8% versus 0.9%. In any one game, a team is eight times more likely to miss two 40-49 yard field goals than they are to score on both a punt return and an interception return.

The Steelers weren't any more lucky to win the game than the Jets were lucky to be in it. But it was still a choke-a-thon. Both the Colts and the Patriots are sleeping a little easier tonight.

Ouch

All hail the Steelers! File that one under "humbling."

Now to sleep it off ...

Steelers must prove themselves

All week we've been talking (not on the blog, of course, but out there in the scary world outside this virtual drinking room) about how everyone seems to be focussed on the Peyton Manning vs. Patriots game. Alan Robinson mentions this in his pre-game AP report. Some of it is enduring skepticism that a team can go far or win much with a rookie QB. But that's not all of it.

I'm not sure what's the rest of it.

Saturday News

I hear they are playing a football game today at 4:30pm. You might want to check it out.

There are some good reports up about the Pirates. Joe Rutter and Dejan Kovacevic have notebooks. Yes, the GM is still looking to make a trade. Yes, Mike Cameron is out there. Pre-arbitration negotiations continue. Kovacevic reports the Bucs are close to bringing in Albie Lopez.

The Bradenton Herald offers this report on Humberto Cota. Both Joe Rutter and Dejan Kovacevic report on the physical and mental shape of Daryle Ward. Ward is making notes in a little notebook about his goals. More players should do this.

At MLB.com on the home page they are advertising ticket six-packs with a skeleton-head Pirate logo. Is this new or has this been an alternative logo for some time?

And all hail the Honus Wagner museum.

Marvin Miller

Here's to Marvin Miller. And here's to our still being here when we're 87.

And here's to Primer for posting that link.

Lynn Swann

Seen fighting junk food. He was one of my favorite players back in the day, but I'm not going to enjoy his career as a politician.

Wells signs one-year deal

Dejan reports this.

Lame "performance-enhancing drugs" agreement

Nothing there about amphetamines. The Bucs can have the Killer Coffee again in 2005.

Quote of the day, from this report by Kovacevic:

Asked about the new steroids program yesterday, Santiago replied, "If they want me to pee 10 times, I'll pee 10 times."

Amazing. Raise your hand if you can pee ten times in a row on demand. Now you know why they get the Big Bucks.

Wilson down 15 pounds

Give the man a chocolate malt. I don't like learning that the little guy is littler.

Venezuelan Vogelsong

Joe Rutter quotes Pete Mackanin, who coached Vogelsong in winter ball, with a less-than-ringing endorsement of the progess RV made:

Little by little, I think he understands it, but he didn't get the results we were looking for.

Ouch. Yet RV brought back a new pitch and a new grip. Story here.

First and third

Ed Eagle reports that third base is Wigginton's. He better outhit Mackowiak if he wants to hold onto it. Eagle also reports that Darlye Ward thinks his conditioning woes are behind him. We'll see soon enough.

Kip Wells: Key to 2005

Many stories on Kip Wells after he threw yesterday. Dejan Kovacevic, Ed Eagle, Joe Rutter, and the AP bring the news, which is good.

Mac is right here:

"Kip is big for us right now," manager Lloyd McClendon said. "We need for the guy to be healthy enough to make 32 starts. Our biggest concern for us going into spring training is having a healthy Kip Wells."

Yes, yes, yes. (Rutter has him saying 32-33, FWIW.)

Carpal tunnel release surgery, if my wife's midwife can be cited as an authority, is no big deal at all. The elbow is the thing we should watch.

I carp about the need for ten or twelve pitchers, but I think one of the keys to a winning season is having four or five guys making more than 25-30 starts for you. That's not only a sign that the pitchers are being effective. It's also a sign of the stability I think a team needs to prevent the long losing streaks which separate a 72-win team from an 88-win team.

That crazy Curve

What will they think of next?

Actually, that's not such a crazy idea. They can do better I think.

Brian Meadows gets paid

One more arbitration case settled.

Happy Pittsburgh

The New York Times describes the city and its relationship with the Steelers. Complete with picture of a Roethlisburger. Go read. Thanks, Joey G, for the link.

Duce and Jerome

Great picture on the wire. They look like brothers. The four raised eyebrows are good, too. This is better two-headed photography than the image that recently graced National Geographic Sports Illustrated.

Noonie a Cardinal

Story here. He strikes me as a Tony La Russa kind of player.

Kovacevic Q & A

Whoa. It's huge.

People are pissed; he's right about the anger thing. But I'd attribute some of the intemperance of commentary to inexperience. A lot of writers are driven to write and, when they start out, have a lot of passion and little practice restraining it. And nobody proofreads anymore. It's very easy to be a lot more harsh than we mean to be. It takes awhile to learn the strength of your punches.

Sean Burnett hanging out, not touching baseballs

Dejan Kovacevic reports on the laziness of Sean Burnett. When I was a kid, we got right back out there after Tommy John surgery, threw baseballs and what not until the horses got rootchie and raised a hell of a noise.

Seriously, get well Sean.

University of Torres

Joe Rutter reports that he's investing some of his new contract dough in the construction of a baseball academy near his home of San Pedro de Macoris, a bustling city and part of an area that "has supplied the greatest number of Major League players in the world."

Eric Byrnes

Time for some shamelessly idle speculation. I don't routinely indulge in this kind of posting, but what the heck.

Both Athletics Nation and Baysball are expressing the belief that arbitration-eligible Eric Byrnes will be headed out of town. They regard the D'backs as the team most interested in him. They express some hope the D'Backs will part with one of their outfield prospects. They also think the A's might settle for one of the D'Backs middle infielders, such as 24-year-old Scott Hairston. If the Athletics are looking for a pre-arbitration infielder, we have a few of them. And one of them, Freddy Sanchez, has had a good reputation among sabermetric types since his days in the Boston system.

Eric Byrnes is no Magglio Ordonez, but he can play centerfield and he's been a fan favorite in Oakland. A right-hander, he smokes left-handed pitching. While he doesn't hit right-handed pitching as well, he's better than Tike Redman.

If the Bucs acquire a guy like Byrnes, that would squeeze Tike Redman off the roster, I think. It would also eat into the available playing time that will probably fall to Daryle Ward. So any trade for Byrnes would be Player plus (diminished use of Redman) plus (diminished use of Ward). Some of you would call that addition by subtraction. Others might think that's selling your stock prematurely low.

Either way, I'm of the opinion that the Pirates should be dealing prospects they don't look to use extensively. Sanchez fits that description. If he hangs around and gets 100 plate appearances with the big team this year, his trade value will only decrease. Prospects are overvalued on the current trade market since prospects and only prospects serve to "save face" for GMs who are dumping players primarily for salary reasons. If the A's have to throw Byrnes overboard to pay their new Japanese pitcher, they also have to get some kind of prospect in return.

We need our own prospects, of course, but there's no sense in having a ton of guys ready for playing time rotting in the system. We'll be featuring a bunch of guys far short of hoary veteran status: Jack Wilson, Jason Bay, Jose Castillo, Ty Wigginton, Rob Mackowiak, Oliver Perez, Mike Gonzalez, etc. The team needs to get better players onto the big-league roster. Trading surplus prospects while they have value makes sense to me. It may not go over well with the fans, and it may not fit the "rebuilding through the minors" message easily, but it surely is part of the way a team would rebuild through the minors. Assuming Byrnes is due for several millions in arbitration, and assuming the team has the money left, how many of you would agree that it would be wise to trade Freddy Sanchez for him?

[Please note: this isn't based on any rumors. The source of this "rumor" is me. Some press reports suggest a deal sending Byrnes to Arizona is all but done, and I've never seen any press reports suggesting the Pirates ever showed any kind of interest in Byrnes.]

...and it's not like Littlefield doesn't trade prospects. Check out the first question, on Jeff Keppinger, in the latest Mets Q & A.

Ed Eagle interviews Mac

Text here.

Bettis / Staley

No contest. Start Bettis. When the team gets a two-touchdown lead, pull him for Staley. No sense saving Bettis for the next game; if you don't win this one, there is no next game.

Steelers Nation

Fun photo collection at the PG.

Ritchie reports

From Kovacevic and Rutter and Perrotto. Reads like the team is still in the hunt for a fifth starter. Since it looks like Ritchie, Vogelsong, JVB, and possibly Kip Wells won't be ready in late March, I'd say we need one.

Jim Andrews operated on Todd Ritchie's rotator cuff in June 2003. Curiously, in "Redbook Redux," a April 14, 2003 article for Baseball Prospectus Premium, Will Carroll wrote that, when visiting with the Redbook people - the people who keep baseball's proprietary injury data - he learned that "Rotator cuff injuries are the easiest ones to say are preventable. Almost every rotator cuff tear is the result of either poor mechanics or overuse." A quick search of Carroll's archives shows that Jaret Wright, Zach Day, Casey Fossum, Steve Karsay, Pedro Astacio, Tony Armas, Orlando Hernandez, Robb Nen, Reds top prospect Chris Gruler, Eddie Guardado, and Joe Borowski are some other pitchers who have come back or not from some form of rotator cuff surgery. Maybe Will can update us on Ritchie's health when he gets back to writing his Under the Knife columns.

So now you know why Ritchie is talking about needing two years to come back. Jaret Wright had his rotator cuff surgeries in 2000 and 2001. I have no idea if his surgeries were very similar to what Ritchie experienced. Either way, I wish Ritchie the best.

Spanky in the booth

Bob Smizik reports it could happen. Kent Tekulve is another candidate.

Boras and Beltran

This Bob DiCesare comment on the Mets-Beltran agreement is relevant not because it suggests the astonishing fact that the Pirates were in on the Beltran bidding, but because Scott Boras represents Oliver Perez.

Wigginton and Mackowiak

Is it a platoon? I assumed it was but maybe that's not the way the team sees it now. Ed Eagle describes Ty Wigginton as the starter at third in his Q & A. I suppose "starter" could just mean the guy who plays there on Opening Day.

Wigginton, a right-handed hitter, hit lefties at a .272 / .343 / .453 rate the last three years. Mackowiak, a left-handed hitter, does not hit lefties. But he's been a .258 / .337 / .447 hitter against righties. And Wigginton has hit righties at a .259 / .317 / .415 rate. Combine them and, if they keep hitting at those rates, you have .788 OPS production at third base. Not great, but better than all-Wigginton all the time.

Maybe the Bucs see something in Wigginton's history against particular kinds of righties. Maybe they believe Wigginton has a edge over Mackowiak against these guys. Otherwise, I don't see why this won't shake out as a traditional platoon arrangement, with Mackowiak playing against righties and Wigginton playing against lefties. Since two-thirds of the pitchers are right-handed, that would seem to give more playing time to Mackowiak at third.

Defensive statistics, for what they are worth, suggest that Mackowiak, Mac's "best athlete," is the superior fielder at third. All the ones I can find favor Rob. Here, for example, he's listed as playing third with a .962 FPCT, a 2.78 range factor, and a .775 zone rating. Wigginton's fielding stats look like this: a .938 FPCT, a 2.62 range factor, and a .731 zone rating. Those are the 2004 numbers. Range factor is nothing but (putouts + assists) * 9 / innings, so for all we know, one guy has a higher zone rating because he more often played behind pitchers that put the ball in play. I don't know how the zone rating is figured. Regardless, it's hard to see a defensive edge for Wigginton in the numbers.

Ed Eagle quotes McClendon as describing Mackowiak as a player who can't get overexposed. By that, I'd guess he means "exposed to any left-handed pitching." Perhaps Mackowiak is considered a player with lower upside because of this. Perhaps there's reason to be hopeful that Ty Wigginton will continue to improve at the plate. Since both these guys are at the probable peak of their careers, odds are that they'll outperform, by a small amount, the three-year averages I just quoted. Certainly Wigginton's streakiness suggests that he still has something to learn. But some players start streaky and retire streaky. Some players never learn.

Wigginton and Mackowiak are pretty natural platoon partners, So why anoint one the starter? It's not at all clear to me that this has happened, but Ed Eagle's Q & A suggests that this is his take on the position.

Here's hoping that Wigginton has a breakout year in his 27th year. There's a chance. It could happen. Crazier things etc. etc. Otherwise, here's hoping that Mackowiak has the chance to challenge him for playing time every step of the way. All things being equal, the average player with the slightly better defense and the more common platoon split should wind up with a greater amount of playing time.

Todd Ritchie a Pirate

Signed to a minor-league deal. No surprise there.

J.R. House

Ed Eagle reports that House is on the Craig Wilson career path. Let your hair down, J.R.!

PirateFest

Press release here. The Buc-lywed Game sounds like a terrible idea. I don't even want to know more about it. Ah, just kidding. I'm sure it's just as much fun as Pirate Karaoke. Rowdietta, who clears 30 inches in shoes, would probably dig this.

The 2005 alternate uniforms have pinstripes.

Monday morning reading

Dejan Kovacevic describes the shape of the starting pitchers. When did we first learn that Kip Wells had an elbow problem in addition to a carpal-tunnel problem? I must have missed or forgotten that news. Burnett, of course, is out for awhile. JVB will come back slowly. And now Vogelsong's shoulder is tired. He only started about 34 games, summer and winter combined, so who knows what's up with him. He looks to start the year in the back of the bullpen. It's not hard to see why Littlefield wants to acquire another starting pitcher. You need about twelve of these guys to start the year even though you hope to never use your seven back-ups.

Around the blogs, bkopec has a herniated disc and is headed for the DL. Trev isn't sold on Jose Castillo and wants to see more Freddy Sanchez. Charlie answers the ten questions. For the front page at OnlyBucs, Richard A. Mathews has been profiling the players. While you are there, take a minute to admire this painting of Honus. It brings a tear to me eye. See Paul's other work, which is equally impressive, here. I find this one especially entrancing.

While we are talking art, don't miss "Creation of Big Ben". I was on an airplane and missed the game during which CBS featured that thing.

And did any of you New Yorkers get over to Brooklyn to see the Roberto Clemente exhibit (scroll down, under "Vamos!")? More here and here. Maybe it's Rowdietta's remarkable artistic talents, or maybe not, but these days I'm a real sucker for kid art. I'm sorry I missed the exhibition and wish they had some of the work posted online.

Back to football. For the Trib-Review, Bob Prine offers a valuable dissertation on the arguments against the NFL's current hard-salary-cap pay structure. It seems that the players pay a toll, physically, for their inability to miss games without having their pay docked. This leads me to wonder if the NFL shouldn't be reporting who will miss games with and without pay. When the Steelers decide to sit Burress, for example, does he take a pay cut for that game check? This doesn't appear to be a salary issue so much as it appears to be the NFL's management using the salary cap to crack down on suspected malingerers. Maybe I'm not following all the arguments. Anyone, there's the link for now. Don't miss it or file it away for later.

I'm not sorry the Astros won't get Carlos Beltran. The AP reports there that they may be using the "R-word" - rebuilding - more often. Lance Berkman tore his ACL washing his truck. Jeff Kent will make $8.5 million playing for Los Angeles. Wade Miller got cut. Clemens is on the fence. But they still have a former Bucco managing the team, and Jason Lane is not the worst option to plug into centerfield. The team re-signed Jose Vizcaino for $1.25M and Orlando Palmeiro for 800K. Hmmm. We'll see them six times before May 5. Hopefully Berkman won't come back until May 6.

It's getting time to look in at the other clubs. The Cubs let Moises Alou go to San Francisco. Insert pee joke here. Matt Clement went to Boston. They lose Grudz to St. Louis. Ramon Martinez was lured away by Detroit for one year and $1M. How is Abraham Nunez still out of work? Kent Mercker left Chicago for Cincinnati, yawn. The Cubs resigned Nomar, Neifi, Todd Hollandsworth, Glendon Rusch, Todd Walker, and Ryan Dempster. They also picked up Henry Blanco. I'm not sure if these moves make them a stronger or a weaker club though I'm tipping toward weaker since Matt Clement was solid for them. We see the Cubs for a three-game homestand starting April 15th.

J - E - T - S

Looks like the Steelers will line up against the Jersey team, who won yesterday's choke-a-thon. To me, both the Jets and the Chargers looked like Losers coming out of that one.

But all I have to say now is this: There is no little enemy. The saddest-looking opponents are the most likely to surprise you in the playoffs.

Burnitz in centerfield

Dejan Kovacevic handicaps the chance the Bucs could land Burnitz to play centerfield. As long as his agent talks like the Pirates "are not a contending team," I say Burnitz can fuck off.

Craig Wilson bobblehead day June 4th. Long hair or short? After going over what the Bucs now have and how it might fit together on the field, I can't see how they can deal Wilson without getting someone just like him in return. Since he's good, I can understand Littlefield "shopping" him. You have to trade quality to get quality.

Whinery

Gene Collier sheds some tears for the Pirates and their low payroll.

I'd be down with a salary cap; it has been good for football. But don't tell me you can't field a respectable baseball team on forty million dollars.

The part I most resent about this line of reasoning is that it exaggerates the gap between the Pirates and the rest of the league. In the recent Sports Illustrated sports atlas, they showed that our rust belt region tunes into less baseball than any other part of the country. Since our teams are the Tigers, the Brewers, the Reds, the Indians, and the Pirates, that can't be surprising.

The Bucs have fallen into a vicious cycle. They have a losing season. Fans and sportswriters get disgusted and stop paying as much attention. They have another losing season. Everyone pays less attention. Year after year, the level and accuracy of the discussion of the team sinks a little lower and a little lower. Fewer and fewer people know what's going on. Collier's review of the state of the team reminds me of a book review by someone who hasn't read the book carefully. All this crap about we don't have as much money amounts to little more than an elaborate rationalization to not pay attention to the team.

There's definitely some real-world, reality-based reasons so many people in Pittsburgh frame the state of the baseball team in these terms. But let's keep the political arguments off the field, OK? Stop crapping so near the well. Pirate fans who really want to hate on our Gilded-Age distribution of wealth should redirect their energy into support of their local unions. It would be much more effective and satisfying in that arena.

There were stretches in 2004 when the Pirates were as good as any team in the big leagues. Maybe they weren't as good on paper, but I remember, for example, a stretch last summer during which the Cardinals came to PNC and got swept. If you win seventeen or eighteen games out of twenty-one, that's as good as it gets. And that's what I live for. Sure it sucks that the team hasn't made the playoffs since they cut Tim Wakefield. But on any given summer evening, it's hard to think about the playoffs when there's a game on the field. Collier may think he's doing the team a service by calling attention to the fact that the Yankees have a bigger payroll. But who doesn't know that? We've heard about it ad nauseam.

I look forward to seeing the Bucs win in Yankee stadium. How sweet would a sweep be?