Pitchouts

I'm not a big fan of the Bill James Handbook, which I purchased, sight unseen, because I heard it had lefty/righty splits for ballpark effects. The book looks slapped-together and there are some really worthless things in it. (More on that later, maybe.) On the other hand, I would buy it again. It wasn't that expensive and it's my conviction that you can never have too many books. And it's full of little tidbits of statistical trivia worth considering. Pitchouts provide one example.

First, the park effect thing. FWIW, PNC, the last three years, played well for average for both lefties and righties, with index scores of 106 and 102. But it depressed home run totals, with index scores of 94 and 89. In other words, despite the short trip to the right-field porch, PNC hitters have not been clubbing a lot of home runs from the left-handed side of the plate. And it's even tougher for right-handers, who hit 10% fewer home runs in PNC than they did in the average park. In 2004, the score was 83, which I think has to do with the nasty weather the team experienced - remember the black clouds that followed them everywhere? And all that said, singles aren't tough to find. It's a small-ball park.

Anyway, the thing I wanted to post about is the pitchout numbers, which are provided in a section of managerial stats. The Pirates were among the league leaders in pitchouts in 2004 - by a pretty wide margin. Dusty Baker's team called 56 and Mac's team called 55. Felipe Alou's Giants? 2. Bruce Bochy's Padres? 14. Larry Bowa's Phillies? 23. Bob Brenly's D'Backs? 25. Bobby Cox's Braves? 4. Phil Garner's Astros? 7 (in 74 games). Art Howe's Mets? 19. Clint Hurdle's Rockies? 11. Tony LaRussa's Cardinals? 4. Jack McKeon's Marlins? 19. Dave Miley's Reds 8, Frank Robinson's Expos, 1, Jim Tracy's Dodgers, 7.

So the NL breaks down into teams that called pitchouts a lot (the Cubs and the Pirates) and teams that called hardly any. And there also appears to be a correlation between the success of a given team and the number of pitchouts. The playoff teams called relatively few. The champs called only four - and that from a manager with a reputation for tinkering.

More curious is the fact that the pitchout numbers plummeted for many of those guys. Tony LaRussa called 79 in 1997. Dusty Baker called 96 in 1996. Bruce Bochy called 65 in 1996. Phil Garner called 82 in 1996. Jimy Williams called more than 100 in 2000 and 2001 but only 16 in his 88 games last year. Clearly the pitchout is on the wane.

Now, I hate the pitchout. It's the two-point conversion of baseball with more of the risk and less of the thrill. It's not a good percentage play, especially when you are managing a team with guys who can struggle to throw strikes. Why give away a ball?

Here's my questions about this. (1) Jason Kendall's caught stealing rate shot up last year. Were they calling a lot of pitchouts - relative to the rest of the league - to help pad those numbers? He had a reputation for having a rag arm. Did they rehabilitate that just in time to trade him? (2) Why have managers like Tony LaRussa abandoned the pitchout? The drop in pitchouts is widespread enough. The reason should be fairly common knowledge. (3) Will the Pirates call so many pitchouts this year?

I hope not.