According to Baseball America, pure college arms appear to "pan out" better than the most polished college arms and the rawest, best-stuff prep school arms. Articles like this make me wonder about the time frame in which these players contribute. It's naive to think a team like the Pirates can look at the overall picture and draft whatever produces a player with the best career. It's not that the Pirates need the player to succeed or contribute right now, but sooner is much better than later. How do these respective groups fare after two years? After four? After six?
Right now the Bucs could afford to go with a prep arm if they thought he'd be ready in three years the way Kerry Wood was ready in three years. There was no good prep-arm gamble in last year's draft. I'm sorry but Jeff Allison is not what the Bucs need and the Paul Maholm pick was smart.
And what about the relative risk of traumatic injury, traumatic immatuity, or traumatic inability? The Bucs can not afford to take the most high-risk, high-reward prospects the way the Yankees can.
I'm sure DL and staff are light-years ahead of me on this trail of thought, and I don't think of myself as lecturing them or even hoping to influence their opinion. What I would like to see though is a more intelligent or at least more lively debate among well-informed fans as to what the Bucs should do with their #11 pick come June 7. My vote is for left-handed college starter.
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