Rotation depth in the NL Central

The Bucs will make a decision about Rick Reed soon. Since he was half decent in his last start, I expect they will try to keep him around, either as a fifth starter, a minor-league starter, or a swing man in the bullpen. I think that's a good idea, too. Here's why. The following table shows how many starters each team in the NL Central has used over the last three years. The first set of rows lists the number of starters with four or more starts; the second with twelve or more; and so forth. The final set of rows shows the number of wins in each season. Take a long look:

4 or more	3yr avg	2003	2002	2001
Cardinals	8.3	7	10	8
Astros	9.3	8	9	11
Cubs	6.7	6	8	6
Reds	11.3	13	11	10
Pirates	9.3	9	9	10
Brewers	8.7	10	8	8
AVG	8.9
12 or more	3yr avg	2003	2002	2001
Cardinals	5.7	6	6	5
Astros	6.0	5	8	5
Cubs	5.3	5	6	5
Reds	4.7	4	5	5
Pirates	6.0	6	4	8
Brewers	5.0	5	5	5
AVG	5.4
20 or more	3yr avg	2003	2002	2001
Cardinals	3.0	4	2	3
Astros	3.7	4	3	4
Cubs	4.3	5	3	5
Reds	2.3	3	1	3
Pirates	3.3	4	4	2
Brewers	3.3	3	3	4
AVG	3.3
30 or more	3yr avg	2003	2002	2001
Cardinals	2.0	2	1	3
Astros	1.7	3	1	1
Cubs	2.7	4	2	2
Reds	1.0	0	2	1
Pirates	1.7	1	2	2
Brewers	2.0	3	2	1
AVG	1.8
Wins	3yr avg	2003	2002	2001
Cardinals	91.7	85	97	93
Astros	88.0	87	84	93
Cubs	81.0	88	67	88
Reds	71.0	69	78	66
Pirates	69.7	75	72	62
Brewers	64.0	68	56	68

All of these numbers are overdetermined. Some teams used a lot of starters because their first choices were awful. Others used a lot of starters because of injury. Furthermore, there's no strong correlation between the number of starters a team uses and the number of games a team wins. In 2002, the Cardinals won 97 games giving ten different pitchers at least four starts. The Brewers had a more stable rotation and won 56.

This is an era that's rough on pitchers. There are many reasons for this. One, more teams emphasize OBP, working the count, and getting to the bullpen as an offensive strategy. The number of pitches per game has gone up considerably over the last few decades. Two, the new ballparks, such as PNC, have less foul territory. This adds a few outs to every game. I could go on, and if anyone doubts the growing burden on pitchers these days, they should get into the work of Will Carroll, whose new book, Saving the Pitcher, will make a fuller case.

As a response to the increased burden on pitchers, many teams - like the Pirates - now carry twelve pitchers on the 25-man roster. Years ago, the norm was ten. (In case you hadn't made the connection, this is why the Pirates focus on stocking the bench with utility players such as Rob Mackowiak and Abraham Nunez.) The increased burden on pitchers is also reflected in the high number of starters used on more than a stopgap basis.

The five-man rotation is a myth. A team may start the season with five starters, and it's possible that those five starters will combine for 140 starts. In that case, there's always a need for a six and maybe a seventh to make up the rest of the starts. But it's also common for a team to give six or seven starters twelve or more starts, and ten starters four or more starts.

The Pirates should plan on using nine or ten starters this year. Let's say ten to be cautious. This way they are prepared for the worst. Should we lose a starter or two to trade, injury, or miserably failing performance, the Pirates have someone ready to go. In all likelihood, four of the ten will only be needed for four to eleven starts. The best thing to do now, at the final preseason roster cuts, is to look ahead and rank the starters in the order you'd like to use them. I think the current ranking must look something like this:

	# of pro starts	3yr AVG	2003	2002	2001
1	Wells	29	33	31	24
2	Benson	14	18	25	0
3	Fogg	25	26	33	16
4	Vogelsong	20	31	12	16
5	Reed	28	21	32	32
6	Perez	29	32	27	28
7	Burnett	26	27	26	26
8	Van Benschoten	21	26	27	9
9	Meadows	25	15	33	28
10	Torres	15	16	29	0
11	Dave Williams	18	28	9	16
12	Cory Stewart	16	24	23	0

Only Wells, Fogg, and Vogelsong look good for a likely 25 starts. Even if Benson is not traded, it wouldn't be wise to plan for him making more than 20 starts. This is not a rotation that looks like the 2003 Cubs.

Meadows and Torres, the swing men, can nail down the nine and ten spots. Oliver Perez and Dave Williams can jump into the rotation when they are throwing consistently well. Since they both look far from ready at the start of April, a safe estimate would be that one of these two will be ready for the rotation by the middle of the summer. They fill the eighth spot for now then. Van Benschoten and Burnett look good and ready, though they are young and have no experience above AA. Give them spots six and seven. Until Perez gets his act together, I'd rather turn to these two when we need new starters.

Even if we don't trade Benson next week, Reed now has to hold the fifth spot or we are planning to use the guys at the back end of the list. Cory Stewart might be ready; he did well enough at AA last year. Maholm shouldn't be in this year's plans. We've seen enough to Meadows and Torres to know they aren't members of the next Pirate rotation to lead the team to the playoffs. With the youth of the pitching staff, the Pirates should want Meadows and Torres in long relief since there will be plenty of games in which the young starters roll up high pitch counts and the longmen are called in to start the fourth or fifth or sixth inning.

Reed stabilizes the rotation at least for now. If he can pitch well enough to be a fifth starter, it makes sense to keep him. Even average starting pitchers are hard to get on the free agent market and command a large price. If the Bucs cut Reed before they give him a few more starts to prove he can still contribute, then they are basically shifting some of the burden to the back end of this long rotation. I don't know that I want it there any more than I want it on Reed. The rotation is young enough; the youth of Williams, Stewart, and Maholm is not reason enough to bring them to the big club, especially if they haven't shown they can dominate at a lower level. It makes sense to keep Reed for now.

... 5:00 update. It doesn't make any sense to keep him, of course, if he's finished, if he can't get the ball past the hitters, if we look under the hood and find a family of squirrels sleeping on the engine block. Line today: 2 IP, 5 hits, 2 walks, no Ks. That's squirrelly.

... April 3 update: The Pirates did the right thing and offered Reed a job in the minor leagues. Not sure he'll accept the assignment. If he can round into shape, he could be useful. In the meantime, refusing Reed the luxury of rounding into shape while a member of the 25-man roster sends the right message to the team and to the fans.