For the record, here's the case against Ramirez having much value to the Pirates when they traded him. In 2000, at the age of 22, in his second half-season as a Pirate (he also played 72 games in 1998, at the age of 20), Ramirez put up a 695 OPS in 250 at-bats and 73 games. He also made 14 errors for a .917 fielding percentage. Baseball Prospectus measured that performance (in the 2003 book) as one that cost the Pirates 10 runs. That's about a whole win. In 2001, he broke out and put up an 886 OPS in 640 plate appearances. He made 25 errors over the course of a whole season, which translated into a .945 FPCT and only cost the team, per the 2004 BP annual, four runs, which is close to half a win.
Did he hold these gains? The answer is a big no. In 2002 he posted a downright Satanic 666 OPS and 19 errors in less play for another .946 FPCT that wasn't as bad as it looked, costing the Bucs only 2 runs by BP's measure. In 2003, he was slow from the gate with the stick - 679 OPS in April - and he turned that around in May and June. His fielding was more Satanic than ever, however. In mid-May, his batting average stood at .219, he had 12 errors in 40 games, and fans were booing him at PNC.
Ramirez then went on a tear, but me, after watching Ramirez wallow in such depths for such a long period of time (one full season plus the first quarter of the next), I was ready to sell him high before the next funk set in. Everyone close to the game attributed his struggles to pressing. In Pittsburgh, he was a big fish in a small pond; in Chicago, he's a small fish in a big pond. He's surrounded by drunken fans who barely comprehend the game and sober fans who find losing somewhat lovable. Wrigley is a better place for him. Perhaps he'll mature into a consistent star there. Only time will tell.
That said, when we consider what he gave the team last year, we should remember that his 400 plate appearances of 778 OPS also came with 23 errors and a .924 FPCT in 96 games. The 2004 BP annual measures that as play that cost the Pirates 12 runs - more than one full win. The Pirates allowed 801 runs last year. With better fielding at third, that number could have been 789.
After Ramirez left, the rest of the third base time was monopolized by Jose Hernandez, who gave us league-average defense and a 608 OPS. As PG's Stats Geek showed us in yesterday's article, the combination produced a 725 OPS.
If we assume, for the sake of argument, that Chris Stynes plays every inning at third base and that he gives the Pirates his career average 747 OPS, he'll easily do better than the third base combo of 2003. He'll hit more and help the Pirates score more runs. He'll also field better and help the Pirates prevent runs: in 2003, Stynes was second in the NL in fielding percentage at third base. BP's measure of his value is neutral, suggesting the low error rate masks a limited range: Ramirez was measured at -12 runs and Stynes was measured at 0 runs. (Florida's Mike Lowell was good enough to be measured at +7 runs.)
Even if we compare Stynes at 3B to a hypothetical full year of Ramirez at 3B, I'm not sure that 600 plate appearances of 330 OBP / 448 SLG generates enough runs over 600 plate appearances of 340 OBP / 407 SLG to make up for the 12 runs that score after Ramirez throws the routine grounder up the right-field foul line. By my crude math, the first line would generate about 155 runs & RBIs and the second line would generate about 145 runs & RBIs assuming both hitters were stuck in the same average lineup position on the same average team. Ramirez might be expected to score 70 and drive in 85, but his poor play in the field would offset any advantage he might appear to have over Stynes scoring 68 and driving in 77.
I'll wrap this up with three other observations. First, Stynes in not going to get 600 PA at third. I expect Rob Mackowiak, who is better hitter than Stynes, to get some of those, and probably Nunez will play at third too, so I'm a little foolish to write like things aren't more complicated than this. Second, had the Pirates kept Aramis Ramirez, I don't doubt that there would be a good chance that he'd return to the 2000 form for them. On the other hand, if you had asked me that question in mid-May 2003, I would have sworn there was no chance we'd see that again. If one of your star players hogs the limelight as your football team loses their first four games, you understandably become more difficult to impress when he begins to play well only after he has done so much to eliminate your team from playoff contention. Ramirez's play improved after he sounded out the writing on the wall and it said the Pirates would do anything to get out of his guaranteed money for 2004. His hot-streak audition for a ticket out of Pittsburgh can't be used as evidence - not in this court at least - that he had a bright future as a Pirate.
Finally, Stynes contributes certain intangible things such as superior bag-packing skills and sunflower-chewing strategies and all the other little intangibles we collect under the name of veteran leadership. We can never forget the value of veteran leadership.
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