Pure college arms

According to Baseball America, pure college arms appear to "pan out" better than the most polished college arms and the rawest, best-stuff prep school arms. Articles like this make me wonder about the time frame in which these players contribute. It's naive to think a team like the Pirates can look at the overall picture and draft whatever produces a player with the best career. It's not that the Pirates need the player to succeed or contribute right now, but sooner is much better than later. How do these respective groups fare after two years? After four? After six?

Right now the Bucs could afford to go with a prep arm if they thought he'd be ready in three years the way Kerry Wood was ready in three years. There was no good prep-arm gamble in last year's draft. I'm sorry but Jeff Allison is not what the Bucs need and the Paul Maholm pick was smart.

And what about the relative risk of traumatic injury, traumatic immatuity, or traumatic inability? The Bucs can not afford to take the most high-risk, high-reward prospects the way the Yankees can.

I'm sure DL and staff are light-years ahead of me on this trail of thought, and I don't think of myself as lecturing them or even hoping to influence their opinion. What I would like to see though is a more intelligent or at least more lively debate among well-informed fans as to what the Bucs should do with their #11 pick come June 7. My vote is for left-handed college starter.

Bucs win something

Hey, this is good. John Perrotto argues the Bucs should easily win the Giles trade. Not the smartest thing to publish the day that Giles arrives (couldn't it wait until Friday?), but he's right on. Giles is an expensive and aging corner outfielder. We got or can get them cheap. Bay can play some center, and Oliver Perez is a left-handed power pitcher. Cory Stewart is also a left-handed starter and it looks like we'll be seeing him soon enough, too.

I caught all kinds of abuse for defending this trade and the Aramis Ramirez one. Bobby Hill can still win the Aramis Ramirez deal. People have to remember that the Bucs weren't re-signing Aramis, and the Bucs can play Hill for cheap for several years provided he continues to make the grade.

Boyd gone

Not long after his charming Q&A with Ed Eagle, Jason Boyd was passed out the lower end of the roster.

I'd guess that no one would claim him off waivers, but you never know how such media coverage will impact a player's value on the open market.

The Bucs added another lefty, Mike Gonzalez. He's been lights-out at Nashville. Welcome to the Show bro.

Gammons: SP is precious

We rarely read Peter Gammons because the rumors are never realized and he almost never talks about the Pirates.

So it's understandable that I just caught his May 10 article tonight. (Oh yeah, I was out on the high seas too.) Anyway, he says that starting pitching is the most precious resource in the big leagues right now. Tell me why they abuse the Pirates for drafting starting pitchers? I hope the Bucs do it again, too. Don't buy into that bullshit peddled by half-interested and condescending cynics who claim that the Pirates need to draft some high school kid who's gonna make the bigs at 20, be tantalizingly below average for many years, and have his prime in post-arbitration-eligible years the Bucs won't want to afford. And that's the best-case scenario. Stay the course, Dave Littlefield, and get us another left-handed starting pitcher - preferably someone who keeps the ball in the park.

Like you care dept.: I got drunk and ranted about this six weeks ago. Scoop was face-down and drooling and Bones was sleeping beneath the table when I finished.

P.S. Get well Paul Maholm.

Giants 1, Cubs 0

Yet another NL Central rival went down tonight while the Bucs kicked it on the couch studying game tape of select Friar starters.

Former Buc Jason Schmidt did his thing in a complete game shutout. This fragile and oft-injured pitcher threw 144 pitches for Dusty Baker Felipe Alou. Bwa-ha-ha-ha. Maybe he was "coasting" half the way.

Aramis Ramirez went 0-for-3.

the Latino Mark Fidrych

Brian O'Neill's latest is real good. (FWIW, more on Craig Wilson / Jim Thome here.) Stats Geek is on a roll lately. I read the previous week's essay in hard copy (shudder) as I had no access to the internet. The PG sports page does look good though, doesn't it.

Oliver Perez better be economical with his pitches after his exploits as a Tomato Grower in the offseason. Huzza for Oliver. Spin Williams for NL Coach of the Year.

Les Expos 3, Brewers 2

The it-girl Brewers lost at Montreal. Keith Ginter, hitting third in the lineup, had three hits. So did Geoff Jenkins. Chad Moeller went 0-for-2 but drew two walks so don't think bad of his .235 average. Lyle Overbay now has a hit streak of 18 games. This guy is having a monster year so far: .369 / .414 / .638. Walks and power. Damn. And we gotta see this guy on Friday. He hits left-handed and we'll see him in PNC. Not cool. Maybe Mike Johnston will buzz his tower and put the shake in him before he breaks out with a Sean Casey impression.

Mets 5, St. Louis 4

The Cards (20-19) lost in the ninth to the Mets (19-20). They play two more. It would be mega-freaky if the Mets sweep and the Cards head to Chicago under .500.

Scott Rolen had another big day (yawn) and is now hitting .331 with 13 walks in 135 at-bats. The next time someone tells you that Jack Wilson is off to a good start this year, look 'em in the eye and say this: "Yeah, but Scott Rolen has 13 walks in 135 at-bats." That will shut 'em up.

Reggie Sanders went 0-for-4. This guy is streaky. When's he due? Looking at the log, I guess he picks it up two weeks from today. Oh great, that would be at Pittsburgh at the end of the month.

For the Mets, the great Ty Wigginton went 0-for-3 but he drew a walk so his .205 average isn't so bad as it looks. Izzy, pitching in his upteenth every-other-day appearance, got roughed up and blew his second save of the year. Yawn.

Colorado 8, Cincinnati 3

The Reds got outscored some more and run their record in that department to 175-191.

Matt Holliday had another monster Larry Walker impersonation night. Jeromy Burnitz is having a good year again. Both those guys hit two homers. Shawn Estes pitched well again.

For the Reds, D'Angelo Jimenez went 1-for-4 but NO WALKS. That's sad since he's only hitting .210. Wily Mo Pena was the star of the hour with a nice 2-for-3, solo-HR performance in the losing effort. He jacks his batting average to .213.

Cory Lidle got pounded - eleven hits, six earnies, two jacks in five innings. I wonder if we get to face him soon.

Houston 9, Florida 2

No Pirates game tonight & none yesterday so I'll look around the rest of the NL Central.

The Astros beat up on the Marlins in Florida tonight. Hee Choi went 2-for-4 tonight with a double but NO WALKS. No good buddy since you're only hitting .235. That's not going to to do it. Maybe Dusty Baker was right about Choi.

Ramon Castro went 0-for-1 and dropped his average to .145. I seem to vaguely remember someone telling me he could be the next Carlton Fisk. Maybe I was drunk at the time.

The other Abraham Nunez - get your own name, buddy - went 0-for-1 pinch-hitting. Sounds like the Abraham Nunez I used to know.

The Astros have a good team. Mac said, last time we saw them, that they had more talent than us. This stuck to me. I don't believe it. I think they have more experience. We have a lot of talent and little experience. They have a lot of talent and a lot of experience. Either way, Astros win their NL-most 23rd game.

Smizik on Jack Wilson

We like Bob Smizik's latest on Jack Wilson. Readers of H. Wags aren't astonished by the strong start - not unless they were face-down and passed out at the table when we went over Jack's chances for improvement this spring.

Just because a young player posts near-identical stats in his 23rd and 24th year doesn't mean that is his plateau or "true level" of play. It was a coincidence, that's all. Jack will only maintain his high slugging percentage if he continues to hit a lot of triples, but the rest of the performance is not that far "above" or away from a level we think he can maintain.

As for drawing walks, we maintain that you don't need to draw a lot walks if you hit .350 or even .300. A lot of walks only matter when a player is hitting .230 or .250. The point of "plate discipline" - that ability to draw walks which arises from good strike-zone judgment and pitch recognition - is to hit pitches hard. If a walk is as good as a hit, it's only as good as an infield single. It's beyond stupid to expect that all hitters - regardless of batting average - draw one walk per ten at-bats. If a player can hit .400, obviously that player has outstanding plate discipline, regardless of whether or not he draws walks. There should be a sliding scale with walks per at-bats. A player that hits only .210 or .230 - Hee Choi, Adam Dunn of a year ago, and D'Angelo Jimenez come to mind - better walk a ton if they want their performance to show evidence that they have good plate discipline. A player who hits .270 should walk a good amount, a player who hits .300 doesn't need to walk quite so much, and a guy that hits .350 or .400 doesn't really need to walk much at all. There's a hare-brained superstition that players hitting .350 with few walks are "less likely" to keep up that .350 BA which is as bold as predicting that teams with a 14-2 record with many one-run wins are "less likely" to finish 140-20. Duh, no one is likely to finish the season with a .350 BA.

The test of Jack Wilson's improved hitting is not how many walks he draws while he is hitting .350. It's whether or not he draws enough walks during stretches of .250 hitting to maintain a .340+ OBP.

...rainout update: AWT's comment shows I'm not being clear or coherent. Here's my point with Wilson's lack of walks to date. Look at his projected stats for this year. He's on pace for 50 doubles, 19 triples, and 19 home runs. What can we say? The little guy is hitting the ball hard. Anyone who second-guesses his performance to date as anything short of awesome is looking at a gift Z4 and saying yeah, but my '86 Toyota Corolla was bigger. No doubt that, all things being equal, a high-walks .349 hitter is better than a low-walks .349 hitter but we are way at the top of the curve here, approaching the limit which is HOF level. And sure a high-walks .349 hitter is more likely to hit .349 all year than a low-walks .349 hitter. And a high-walks .349 hitter may actually be likely to finish the year at .349. Think Albert Pujols. Now, remember we are talking about Jack Wilson. The guy hits .349 with a .372 OBP and we're going to say yeah, but he's not Albert Pujols? I don't think so. If Jack Wilson goes 20-for-his-next-100 with four walks then I'll agree he's not walking enough. In the meantime, so long as his OBP is 370, everyone line up and take your turn saying Jack Wilson has had spectacular OBP so far this season.

Redman, Davis

Good thing the Bucs are being patient with Tike Redman and J.J. Davis. I didn't expect Redman to stumble quite like this and it makes sense to give him 300 or 350 at-bats, anywhere in the lineup, before you write him off as Adrian Brown. It's ironic that he's hitting like Adrian Brown after Brown's shoulder surgery. J.J. Davis, who might go on the DL with a whack pinkie, reminds me of Chad Hermansen.

Q & A with Jason Boyd

MLB.com has an interview with third-linesman Jason Boyd. Paintball, police officer, none of that surprises me. It's always fun to read stuff like this with peripheral players.

got my big sippy

While I was out on the high seas bossing about the children before the mast, my order from Cafepress came to the low hovel charming cottage we call home.

The two t-shirts rule. Love them Hanes Beefy Tees and the printing is first-rate. The fabric for the baseball jersey is a little thin. Not heavyweight like the baseball jerseys I wore when I too was before the mast. That may be better for hot summer days but I was a little disappointed. I dunno why I thought it would be beefy-T quality. The shirt ordered for my little Rowdietta looks a little small. We'll see what it looks like after it's been through the washer and dryer pounded between two rocks down by the brook and hung in the sun to dry.

The mug is the best of all. This thing rocks and is gonna hold the mega-sangria soon. In the meantime it jumps to the head of the line as the best latte f'n grog cup in the house. The diameter is the regular size but it's taller. Rowdietta would call it the "big sippy".

Hydrargyrum

We're honored to hold down the Hg spot on Humbug's genius Periodic Table of Blogs.

And it's appropriate. Mercury is one bad-ass fluid:

Mercury has been known since ancient times. The origin of the name comes from the Latin word hydrargyrum meaning liquid silver. It is heavy, silver-white metal, liquid at ordinary temperatures. Stable in air and water. Unreactive with alkalis and most acids. Gives off poisonous vapour. Chronic cumulative effects.

Esp. note the last two sentences and don't say you weren't warned.

Here come the Pad people

The Friars come to town and will be hoping to convert the saucy Pirates. Note to team: don't expect more than 2,000 people to come to the stadium. That way you won't be disappointed. Honus Wagner was a happy man when five thousand souls came to watch him swing his gorilla arms.

Runs scored, runs allowed

Fans of these numbers will like to see that the Bucs have outscored their opponents this year.

Can't say that about the Reds or the new darling of the Heathers, your Milwaukee Brewers.

Play-for-play basis

In my previous career as a Strat shark I kept a running patter as we rolled the dice and filled out the box scores. The game's no good unless both players provide the necessary color and play-by-play. The story of one memorable team - led by "Deltoid" Lloyd Moseby - was that the players were on a "strictly pay-for-play basis" as in if they didn't perform well they didn't get paid. We had one rotten fourth starter (1985 Matt Young?) and every time he came to the mound I'd comment in my best Harry Kalas voice on the filthiness and disrepair of his uniform "seeing as he hasn't received a check in five weeks, and has only this one uniform to his name." He finally won a game and showed up for his next start with a new pair of shoes.

Obviously no one runs a big-league club this way. But Mac has been telling us for years now that he fills out the lineup card on a strictly play-for-play basis: if you play well, you get more playing time. If you embarrass yourself, you ride the pine.

Check out Bobby Hill's last 7 days and season to date. Give the man some PT.

Rob Mackowiak

Last 200 at-bats, dating back to about the ASB last year: 31 for 200, 60 hits, 23 xb hits (incl. 12 homers), 21 BB, 48 K, 8 SB, 31 R and 34 RBI for a tidy line like .300 / .369 / .555 / .924.

Them was good at-bats. More like that please.

Is that 59 on Mack's shirt in honor of the fact that he was something like a 59th round draft pick?

... hold on there. 53rd round draft pick.

Nyargh

I return from the high seas to find that Abraham Nunez hit a pinch-hit homer and Rob Mackowiak hit like Barry Bonds by the bay. Josh Fogg won a game? Nyargh indeed. And what's this about Bobby Hill playing third?