Game 54: Pirates at Cardinals

Duke and Wellemeyer at eight.

Game 53: Pirates at Reds

Dumatrait and Harang starting pretty soon.

Game 52: Pirates at Reds

Tom Gorzelanny and Bronson Arroyo at seven.

Game 51: Pirates at Reds

Snell and Cueto at seven tonight.

Pirates are 24-26, five and a half back of first.

The YTD stats are somewhat comical. Not in a good way. Bay is back with a 950 OPS. McLouth, a guy we called "Frodo" when he came up with Duffy ("Sam"), wants to be an All-Star with a 1025 OPS. He is proving something this season, but I'm pretty skeptical he'll keep that Vlad Guerrero-like pace all year long. Nady (900 OPS) and Doumit (950 OPS) have been solid. Cue the Benny Hill music for the rest of the numbers: Paulino (500), LaRoche (700), Sanchez (600), Bixler (440).

The only starting pitcher who has been league-average has been Dumatrait.

The bullpen has been great.

More than half that offense will be better, but that does not mean they will be good. Of the four sluggers, only Bay I think is likely to maintain that pace in something like everyday play. Doumit and Nady could too. Whatever happens, I don't expect the offense to dramatically improve.

The bullpen could stay the same. The starters should improve. The substitution of Dumatrait for Morris, alone, might be enough to pace the team to 26 wins in the next 50 games. Heck, if they can manage 24 of 50 with these numbers, I guess I expect -- assuming no major subtraction of players through trade or injury (big assumption) -- that this team will still be around .500 at the 100-game mark.

And this is falling in line with expectations I've had for a long time. When the Pirates finally finish a season at .500, we will be underwhelmed, on the whole, with both the record and the general range of individual performances. .500 is mediocre.

That said, we will enjoy all the victories. It is cool to watch, listen, or attend a game and see it end with a victory. I don't get tired of that.

Off day

The Pirates are not playing this Memorial Day, for some reason. Tomorrow they will start a stretch of twenty games in twenty days.

Game 50: Cubs at Pirates

Lilly and Maholm this afternoon.

Game 49: Cubs at Pirates

Marquis and Dumatrait this evening.

Game 48: Cubs at Pirates

Zambrano and Duke. Pirates have to do better than 1-8 against the division's frontrunner.

Game 47: Brewers at Pirates

Dave Bush and Tom Gorzelanny in half an hour.

Bucs in a bit of tailspin here. How low will they go before they get within a series of .500 again?

Game 46: Brewers at Pirates

Ben Sheets and Ian Snell in about an hour.

What are your expectations for Snell going forward? I see him settling down and clubbing the crap out of the league through the end of the summer. I'm not sure when he'll start all this though. Maybe tonight?

Game 45: Brewers at Pirates

At seven, Manny Parra and Paul Maholm at PNC Park.

Off day

Sober up.

Game 44: Pirates at Cubs

Phil Dumatrait and Jason Marquis at two.

Flyers at Penguins at three.

Game 43: Pirates at Cubs

Zach Duke and Carlos Zambrano this afternoon.

Game 42: Pirates at Cubs

The Pirates draw Chicago for six of the next nine games. The Bucs are 0-for-6 against the Cubs this year, so now would be a good time to figure them out.

Today they will play the second of four consecutive day games. The starting pitchers will be Tom Gorzelanny and Sean Gallagher.

Game 41: Pirates at Cardinals

Ian Snell and Joel Pineiro at one.

Game 40: Pirates at Cardinals

Pirates are 19-20. Tonight it's Paul Maholm and RHP Todd Wellemeyer.

The Pirates will call on Ronny Ballgame to step up and do some of the things Ryan Doumit was doing.

Game 39: Pirates at Cardinals

The Pirates move to the central time zone for some games. Tonight at eight, Phil Dumatrait and Kyle Lohse.

Games 37 and 38: Braves at Pirates

These guys will play two today, weather permitting. The scheduled starters are Jair Jurrjens and Zach Duke at 12:30, then Tim Hudson and JVB.

Game 37: Braves at Pirates

Jair Jurrjens and Zach Duke at one-thirty. Jurrjens made the Pirates look bad in the first week of the season.

The Bucs have run their record to 17-19. Five in a row is sweet, but 17-19 is worse than mediocre. One day a winning streak will end with the Pirates above .500.

Game 36: Braves at Pirates

Four in a row improves the current high moment to .457, or 16-19. This is a 74-win pace.

Tom Gorzelanny and Chuck James tonight at seven.

Game 35: Braves at Pirates

Ian Snell and Tom Glavine tonight at seven.

The sweep of the Giants was sweet, especially since they come away with their ace to open the next series. That's how you want it done. On the other hand, you'd like to be better than four games under .500. Any season will have its ups and downs, and winning three straight to attain .441 is not much of an up. Here's hoping Snell can keep the Pirates on a roll tonight.

In other news, Nyjer Morgan has been demoted. And the Pirates made a pretty good low-risk pick-up in acquiring Jason Michaels from the Indians.

Game 34: Giants at Pirates

Matt Cain and Paul Maholm just after noon.

The weather could be better for this one.

Game 33: Giants at Pirates

Zito and Dumatrait at seven.

I thought they moved Zito to the bullpen, but the Pirates' website has him listed as tonight's starter.

Game 32: Giants at Pirates

Jonathan Sanchez and Zach Duke at seven.

The big, powerful-looking big man returns and everyone will surely make little mental comparing notes between him and Bautista.

Off day

The Pirates are flying to San Francisco.

... (later) Now they are flying back to Pittsburgh. Funny idea, that, flying all day for no reason.

Game 31: Pirates at Nats

Ian Snell and Tim Redding at one-thirty.

These two pitchers are defying expectations. Snell should be getting better results with his stuff. Redding has been winning more games than his peripherals suggest he should.

In other news, Sean Burnett got the call, and the Pirates designated Evan Meek, the Post-Gazette reports.

The Pirates are six games under at 12-18.

Game 30: Pirates at Nats

Paul Maholm and Matt Chico starting soon. The Post Gazette reports the Pirates will wear the Grays uniforms this afternoon.

Game 29: Pirates at Nats

Phil Dumatrait and John Lannan.

Time to get beer. Must ... steer clear ... of Baltika 9.

Game 28: Pirates at Nats

Zach Duke and Odalis Perez at seven.

Pirates are 11-16, sharing last place with the Reds at six games out of first. And they continue to lead the NL in runs allowed by a wide margin (Pirates 160 in 27 games, Reds 139 in 29 games).

Game 27: Pirates 13, Mets 1

Cool box score on this one.

Game 26: Pirates at Mets

Rather than start a new thread, I'll just change the date on this old one.

Snell and Santana tonight at seven.

Pirates are 10-15 and own last place. They've allowed 154 runs, far more than any other NL team.

Steelers got a bunch of good players in the draft, and now they scour the remainder for defensive ends, as Ed Bouchette describes day two.

Game 25: Phillies at Pirates

Brett Myers and Paul Maholm at one-thirty.

More NFL draft thread

Steelers are picking more guys. I like the Bruce Davis pick a lot.

Pirates release Matt Morris

Paul Meyer has the word at the Post-Gazette.

It's sad that Morris can't pitch effectively. He can't. We've seen conclusive demonstrations of this.

The money owed him is staggering, but it's better to pay him not to pitch. This way he only hurts the team once. And the money is a sunk cost. It may still be flowing out the safe, but it's already gone. It's spent. There's no getting it back. Learn from the mistake and move on.

I still like the idea of acquiring top-quality veteran players for a year or two at the end of their big contracts. There are values to be had there. This only makes sense, however, if you are getting what you paid for: a top-quality player.

Here, as elsewhere, the success of the team depends on its ability to evaluate talent at every level of play and in every organization. The more you know, the better value you will get for your payroll dollars. The Matt Morris acquisition was an enormous mistake in the talent evaluation department.

NFL draft thread

Steelers picking guys today. Ed Bouchette guesses Kentwan Balmer of North Carolina.

Game 24: Phillies at Pirates

Kyle Kendrick and Matt Morris tonight at seven.

Game 23: Phillies at Pirates

Adam Eaton and Zach Duke at seven.

Game 22: Cardinals at Pirates

Pineiro and Gorzelanny at seven.

Pirates riding a two-game win streak to lift themselves to three games under .500.

Game 21: Cardinals at Pirates

Todd Wellemeyer and Ian Snell.

Pujols owns Snell, sad to say, so maybe they don't pitch to him tonight.

Game 20: Marlins at Pirates

April is the cruelest month.

Paul Maholm and Ricky Nolasco tonight at seven.

Game 19: Marlins at Pirates

Enough of the Cubs for now. At seven it's Matt Morris and Mark Hendrickson.

There has been a pattern with the starts of Morris lately. All eyes on the fourth inning. Can he make two trips through the Marlins' lineup?

Game 18: Pirates at Cubs

Zach Duke, Ryan Dempster, two o'clock.

Game 17: Pirates at Cubs

This road trip is not going so well. The Pirates need a win soon. Today at one it's Tom Gorzelanny and Jason Marquis.

Game 16: Pirates at Cubs

Ian Snell and Rich Hill for a 2:20pm scheduled start.

The weather forecast looks good enough for Iowa Pirate, who is making the trip to see this one.

One time I went to Wrigley for a 2pm game, and it rained, and there was a six-hour rain delay. That's a long time to eat hot dogs, drink beer, and explore the corners of the stadium with a roof. You can't leave the stadium and return on your torn ticket, so there were not many people left when they started the game around eight.

Off day

Nothing doin'.

Game 15: Pirates at Dodgers

The Pirates will try to walk off the Los Angeles at ten.

Paul Maholm and Brad Penny square off.

Patience

Dejan Kovacevic writes how the Pirates think they can walk off the Island of Misfit Ballplayers.

Game 14: Pirates at Dodgers

Matt Morris and Hong-Chih Kuo at ten o'clock.

Pirates have opened the season as a .500 team. They are 7-6, 3-3 at home, 4-3 on the road, and they've scored the same number (69) as they have allowed (69).

Sure, it's early. We all know that. But the April games count. All this is for real.

Game 13: Pirates at Dodgers

The Pirates are on the West Coast for a three-game series with the Dodgers. It's Zach Duke and Hiroki Kuroda tonight at 10.

After LA, they fly to Chicago to play the Cubs before coming home for an unusual three-team, seven-game homestand.

All hail the sweep

The Pirates just swept the Reds to climb back to .500.

No snark intended here - this is a pretty good achievement for this team. Even that year they fought back to 30-30, they were ripped and blown out for most of early April.

So all hail that. Raise your Dogfish Head or whatever you drink for sports-related celebrations.

Jason Bay looked strong this series. Here's a photo for the drinking-room wall. The wind was blowing in something fierce when he knocked that out and scored the game's only run.

Jason Bay has played in 11 of the team's 12 games. He's 11-for-39 with a double, three home runs, and 11 walks.

.282 / .440 / .538 ... welcome back, Jason Bay

Game 12: Reds at Pirates

Good game last night. It makes a big difference when they win.

This afternoon, it's Johnny Cueto and Tom Gorzelanny. Cueto has been the phenom. Should be interesting. The game is scheduled to start at 1:30.

Game 11: Reds at Pirates

Bronson Arroyo and Ian Snell at seven.

Game 10: Reds at Pirates

Tonight at seven, Edinson Volquez and Paul Maholm.

The Bucs have lost three in a row to fall to 3-6. Three of nine is how you get to be 30-60 at the All-Star Break. If the players are going to be better than that, the team needs to start winning some series.

Game 9: Cubs at Pirates

Matt Morris and Rich Hill at seven.

Game 8: Cubs at Pirates

Duke and Dempster at seven.

Yesterday's thread

Monday's game was pretty surreal, but the loss was hardly crushing. Any time a team comes back from 7-0, it's hard to say they should have won the game. Dejan Kovacevic describes the game, and Dan Majors reports on the all-important cost of concessions for the Post-Gazette.

Game 7: Cubs at Pirates

Ted Lilly and Tom Gorzelanny in the home opener today at one.

Game 6: Pirates at Marlins

Ian Snell and 22-year-old Rick VandenHurk just after one today.

If the Bucs can get their shit together and win this one, they finish the road trip at 3-3, which would be pretty impressive, all things considered.

Game 5: Pirates at Marlins

Paul Maholm and Mark Hendrickson at seven.

Game 4: Pirates at Marlins

Matt Morris and Scott Olsen at seven, in what could be another epic battle of the bullpens.

Game 3: Pirates at Braves

Zach Duke and Mike Hampton at seven.

Game 2: Pirates at Braves

Gorzelanny and Jurrgens at seven.

Undefeated

Pirates have the day off. They can bask in the glory of 1-0.

Game 1: Pirates at Braves

Snell and Glavine at 7.

HW Readers' Poll 2008

Only three more days, so last chance for season predictions. If you have a minute, please humor us in the comments:

1. How many games will the Pirates win in 2008?
2. Will the Pirates finish in last place? If not, who will?
3. 2008 whipping boy?
Any other predictions?

I'll start.
1. 66
2. We will.
3. Although my gut says Matt Morri$, it doesn't seem like he qualifies as a "boy", so I'll go with team player/enigma Ronny Ballgame.

Last year, I aced this thing. I predicted 67 wins (bested by seaks, who nailed 68), another basement victory, and that DL and Creech would be fired. This last prediction sparked the Great DL Debate of 2007, which ended with a pink slip for DL and six beers for me. I can't imagine a better outcome than that from these predictions. Not unless I predicted they'd play well and they did, which I won't predict because I don't see it. We will lose. A lot. Again. Same old reason : not enough talent, offense, pitching, and depth. Some will find that too negative, but it's just my honest prediction. It will take years for Coonington's hazmat crew to clean up the mess they waded into.

As for other predictions, Wiggy is back in the division. I see Wiggy bowling over a Bucco, either injuring Doumit or sliding untouched while Ronny drops the ball. Maybe both.

Pirates at Twins

Game at 1.

Pirates at Yankees

Tom Gorzelanny pitches today at 1pm.

Dejan Kovacevic foresees Sean Burnett hanging back. I disagree with the idea that the cut is "unkind," as the PG headline writer suggests. We all know that Spring Training stats do not mean much, and we also all know that the Pirates are going to use a whole bunch of pitchers this year, as they do every year; Burnett will get his chance soon enough.

Plus, as Kovacevic reports, Burnett and his wife are having a baby this week. It's not a good, but a great idea to leave him off the 25-man roster for another week or two or three. Congratulations, Sean Burnett.

Tigers at Pirates

Another game today at 1.

As you probably know by now, the Pirates made some moves to clarify the bullpen situation. As usual, Dejan Kovacevic and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette are the best places to get the lowdown. Jaret Wright and Byung-Hyun Kim are gone; Doug Mientkiewicz makes the team, as expected. Management did the right thing with Kim, for sure, so let's give credit, it's due. (Hands over some credit.)

They also get credit for picking up Yates at the annual end-of-March reliever fire sale. This required patience and faith; I think the previous GM would have acquired more "sure things" at high off-season prices when it became clear to many that the Pirates did not have a lot, on paper, for the bullpen. (Hands over some more credit.)

This leaves some uncertainty in the bullpen. As DK writes:

Removing Kim and Wright leaves six relievers - Franquelis Osoria, Sean Burnett, Phil Dumatrait, Evan Meek, Masumi Kuwata and Hector Carrasco -- for three openings. Huntington said he plans to make final decisions in that regard in the next two days.

If Osoria's a lock, as we've been hearing, it's five guys for two spots. Kuwata and Carrasco, I'd cut right away. Dumatrait and Meek I'd want to keep, so my decision would be to buy Burnett a fancy new suitcase and a fancy new cell phone. I'd tell him to keep the phone on and the suitcase packed, and I'd put him on the bus to Indiana. He goes down because he can, and he'll be back all quick like because teams always need good arms.

Twins at Pirates

Ian Snell makes his last spring start this afternoon.

The Pirates should also cut some guys and not cut some other guys.

Pirates at Rays

Matt Morris will stand up straight at 1pm today.

Dejan Kovacevic returns to the PG with this bullpen analysis. I'd a thought the Pirates would keep Dumatrait in a starting role, but it appears he must be kept on the roster or the Pirates lose him.

So the story today is the Pirates are looking at Capps (CL), Marte (LHP), Grabow (LHP), most likely Burnett, who has had a great spring (LHP), Osoria (RHP), Dumatrait (LHP), five starters, and then one more guy. Kovacevic thinks Kim (RHP) or Meek (RHP).

Burnett has been tougher on righties than lefties, as Kovacevic explains, so he could be counted in the RHP column.

If the choice is Kim or Meek, no doubt I'd take Meek. Kim has not been good, and he's not likely to be good in April. There's no point in looking beyond that point when considering not-looking-good veteran relievers. If the Pirates let him go, someone will likely grab him, and on the other hand, guys like this are often made available. There must be a few veteran relievers as good as Kim, and now on other teams, who are likely to get cut soon and made available to the Pirates.

Guys like Meek, on the other hand, are harder to come by. I would carry him and keep him so long as he pitched well, as he's doing now. If he becomes a mess, you give him back.

Finally, there should be a chance the Pirates start the year with only four starters. With all the rainouts and days off the team usually sees in April, it's possible the Pirates won't need a fifth starter for weeks. (EDIT: But not likely. As azibuck comments, unless a game is cancelled in Atlanta or Florida in week one, they will need a fifth starter on Sunday, April 6.) So the team could carry Meek and Kim. It's always possible that one of the other relievers will need some time on the DL, so if the team gives up one of those guys to carry a starter they don't use, that's somewhat unfortunate.

Rays and Yankees

The Pirates play the Rays today and the Yankees tomorrow.

In other news, Freddy Sanchez looks to be slow healing again, as Jenifer Langosch reports he was in more pain after playing.

And Paul Meyer gathers quotes about Evan Meek. It does not sound like he will be setting up for Matt Capps in 2008; my guess is we'll see Hector Carrasco doing the Jose Mesa in some of those eighth innings.

Reds at Pirates

Game at 1.

Pirates at Phillies

Grapefruit league game at 1.

We'll probably see some of those right-handed relievers.

Right-handed bullpen

So I guess the Pirates carry 12 pitchers, including one closer and five starters, with two left-handed setup guys, two right-handed setup guys, and two swingmen and/or mop-up guys in the bullpen. They may not need a fifth starter until mid-April, so they could start the season with an extra mop-up guy or a three-man right-handed setup team.

On the left-handed side, I expect Grabow and Marte, and Burnett (or Fossum) as a swingman.

On the right-handed side, I count eight guys for, at most, four jobs: Carrasco, Dessens, Kim, Kuwata, Meek, Osoria, and Wright. I have no idea how this will turn out. Osoria and Meek have achieved good results this spring, and they are young; Carrasco has pitched better than I expected, but he is an old man at 37. Dessens got a late start, and he looks more like a swingman or spot starter than a setup person. With Burnett doing well, it does not seem urgent to have him on the roster in early April. Kim and Kuwata have not pitched so well, and they seem to be competing for "guy with funky style" job -- if there is one of those. Jaret Wright has pitched five spring innings without a strikeout, and like Fossum, he does not look like someone to press into a setup job. Kim may also be someone to steer toward a AAA starting job or a swingman role. The Pirates have no shortage of these swingman/mop-up/seventh starter guys.

Did I forget anybody?

It looks to me, after half an hour's thought, that some two of Meek, Osoria, and Carrasco will get right-handed setup jobs. It also looks possible that all three could make the roster for Opening Day.

And all three have been pitching every third day, so maybe we'll see Osoria and Meek as the second and third pitchers in the next game.

Yankees at Pirates

Matt Morris will show good posture tonight.

Adam Sandler will DH and lead off for the Yankees.

Slot-busting

Getting the car repaired this morning, I read in a recent Sports Illustrated - can't find the text online - a piece by Jon Heyman about the Tiger's "slot-busting" draft strategy. Basically, they gamed the league's prohibition on paying "over slot" to scoop up the best talent in the draft. It cost more, but it's still cheaper than signing free agents. The example touted was Rick Porcello. (Biography, recent news.)

Obviously, this is what the Pirates have to do to compete. They can't afford top talent on the free agent market. They can't win championships without top talent. The only strategy that might bring top talent to this team will focus on the draft. There are other things that can be done. They can make smart trades, and they can be the team that best educates its young players. But the draft has to be the heart of it all. They have to get the best players available in every round.

And that means they will have to pay "above slot." Given Coonelly's job before he joined the Pirates, this issue has been, for me, one of the bigger tests for him. None of us believe Littlefield truly rated Moskos above Wieters in pure baseball terms. It appears that he picked Moskos to prove that he can eat shit and like it. It was a suck up move. "Oh yes, Boss, don't worry, there will be no conflict; we will not rock the boat; I don't know why the other 29 teams rate Wieters higher than Moskos; we don't; thank goodness we will avoid the dilemma that would be how to sign Wieters."

All that said, Moskos is also great, and he doesn't need to keep hearing it from the fans that he's not Wieters. But it's plain as the nose on your face that the Pirates need offense, and that they did not need another relief-pitching or even starting-pitching prospect with that pick.

Coonelly and Huntington are doing pretty well, I think, so far. The big test is not going to be the April win-loss record but what they do in the draft. Do they put the team first, or do they put the league first?

The team could also take a lesson from the Steelers: you want to be the team that young players most admire for draft prowess. Getting drafted by the Pirates should be a distinction, and not a curse or insult. Ask Danny Moskos. Since they are not winning games at the big-league level, all the Pirates can do to remedy their loathsome reputation with young players is pay them better than other teams -- and become known as the team that stops at nothing to get the best young players. Then Pittsburgh may not be the place to win a championship next year, but it would be one of the best places to go right out of the draft.

If not hiring players represented by Scott Boras is somehow good for the Pirates, then I would love to hear what Pirate-first arguments support that position.

Pirates at Reds

Game at 1. Paul Maholm and Freddy Sanchez will start.

Blue Jays at Pirates

For St. Patrick's Day, the Pirates will wear green capes in today's 1pm game.

Snell paid

Congratulations to the guy. I'm glad he'll be here for awhile. Here's hoping he keeps pitching so well for all them years.

Paul Meyer reports for the Post-Gazette that he'll make $8M and a lot more if the Pirates pick up the 2011 and 2012 option years. I think this is a good deal for both sides. It's not too often where it seems that both the player and the team are doing the smart thing at the same time.

Raise your Dogfish Head to the pride of Delaware. All hail Ian Snell!

Red Sox at Pirates

Tom Gorzelanny will start for the good guys.

Pirates at Blue Jays

Ian Snell will throw hard and not show weird stuff at one.

Reds, Pirates, Twins

Split-squad games around 1.

Pirates at Yankees

Billy Crystal will play today for the Yankees. Game at 1:15pm.

Pirates at Blue Jays

1 o'clock Grapefruit league game.

Thoughts on Snell and Pearce

No Grapefruit league game today, it looks to me, from the MLB.com scoreboard.

Dejan Kovacevic Paul Meyer reported some news for the Post-Gazette. The roster cuts are non-surprising.

The same synopsis mentions that Snell was renewed (made 408K last year, probably renewed at what, 450K?). It also notes that the Pirates have offered him a long-term deal. Why Snell would play for 400-450K now and decline a long term deal, which surely would run in the millions, is beyond me. Agents and players have much greater risk tolerance for this sort of thing than I would. The idea that Snell would make more money by living year to year strikes me as foolhardy. If you have a chance to get a big paycheck, take it. The odds that a player will stay healthy through his arbitration years for an even bigger contract are longer than most would think.

I also think it might be in the Pirates' best interest for Snell not to sign a long-term deal. Guys have a tendency to get fat once they are set for life. That's only an added risk and it surely outweighs the risks involved only with him not signing the deal, e.g., the risk that Snell would destroy himself by, say, hiding an injury in the hopes of finishing the season with a great many innings and a stronger arbitration case.

I can imagine there's all kinds of back-and-forth and poker playing and whatnot between the team and Ian Snell, but if I'm Snell I take their best long-term offer before the season starts. And then I get to work adjusting my life to such a higher salary. It won't be so easy to stay sharp mentally.

One more thing: I'd want to get paid in euros.

In other news, Pearce was told to learn the outfield. Adam LaRoche is a "fixture," as Kovacevic writes, and that makes a lot of sense. With Bay perpetually gimpy and non-healing the last year or two, and with Nady likely to command some value in trade, anyone who wants to see Pearce in the big leagues should be nodding their head about this decision. It also further guarantees that Pearce will not make the team out of spring training (barring injury). You can't learn a new position as a pinch-hitter starting twice a week.

Phillies at Pirates

Ian Snell will pitch at 1pm.

And there will be a lot of roster cuts today.

Reds and Pirates

Home and away today: two split-squad games, at one and seven pm, at Ed Smith Stadium and later at McKechnie Field.

Blue Jays at Pirates

Game on. Tommy G. pitching.

Now batting fifth

Repoz of BBTF fame found this gem in a Coonelly chat at MLB.com:

signdante: How many home runs will the "change in atmosphere" hit this season? And will it be suitable protection for Jason Bay in the middle of the lineup?

Coonelly: signdante, I detect some sarcasm in your question. My guess is that "the change in atmosphere" will not hit any home runs this year. We are hoping, however, that Adam LaRoche, Xavier Nady and others will provide Jason with some protection this year. The change in atmosphere, which you apparently mock, will be seen by all of our fans who enjoy baseball at PNC Park, and I believe will contribute to far greater success in 2008 and beyond.

More and more I am looking forward to this season. Also I hope the climate change brings sunnier, warmer April weather.

Josh Wilson can slide

He flashes impressive technique for Peter Diana, PG photographer. In Kovacevic's attached report, he runs down how the roster is shaking out.

Tigers at Pirates

Game at one.

Pirates at Red Sox

Preview the World Series at 1.

Pirates at Phillies

Scrimmage at one.

Rays at Pirates, and thoughts on Pearce

Another grapefruit battle today at 1.

Dejan Kovacevic's report on Steve Pearce had me doing some math in my head. Pearce appears to be blocked behind LaRoche and Nady, but the 1B and RF positions will demand about 1400 plate appeances' worth of playing time. Nady has averaged 500 PA the last two years; LaRoche, 600. Assuming they turn in average years, they leave 300 PA open for Pearce. The DH in interleage adds another 40. Jason Bay will not play for all 700 PA occupied by the left-fielder; assuming Nady and not Morgan/McLouth covers left in his absence, especially on the road, then another 50, at least, will fall to the available best-hitting 1B/RF. And every year the best bats on the bench collect about 200 PA pinch-hitting, though I would not expect Pearce to see much of this action given the plan to keep wherever (AAA or MLB) he can play full time.

To come to the point, even if Bay, Nady, and LaRoche avoid extensive down-time to a serious injury, there's still an easy 350-400 PA for Pearce to do something, some time, of significance. This is a healthy chunk of action for a young guy.

So he has a clear opportunity in 2008, without a trade or injury. He has to stay healthy. If he starts the season at Indy, he has to believe that "any day now" he could be flying to join the team to play full time. He has to keep his bags packed, and he to avoid the kind of mental funk that would discourage the Pirates from calling on him at any one particular moment. He can't sulk at Indy and open the year with 30 strikeouts in 95 at-bats.

If any player blocks him, I think it would be Doug Mientkiewicz. If management falls in love with the guy, they might hesitate to recall Pearce if LaRoche or Nady suffer some kind of 15-day boo-boo. 15 days of full-time play is about 50 PA or 15% - a big chunk - of Pearce's easy 350. This is a scenario that I would very much expect from the old regime. Whether or not the new bosses will make similar decisions, we can only guess.

I understand that the Pirates are not going to recall and demote Pearce seven times over the course of the season, and I know that the scenario I just described is highly hypothetical and not at all likely to happen just as I describe. But experience anticipating playing time has taught me that this kind of math makes decent predictions and establishes reasonable expectations.

Pirates at Reds

Grapefruit league action today at 1.

Phillies at Pirates

More grapefruit today at 1.

Play ball

Game on. The Phillies just touched Bullington for five in the third.

RIP Myron Cope

Sad day.

Hmm-ha.

Last week of February

This baseball should get more interesting soon.

Pirates will face off against the dread Lancers on Wednesday. I'm not sure if they are playing the team in the top picture or the team in the bottom picture. We'll know soon enough.

Then they will play the Phillies on Thursday.