Friday, March 18, 2005

BMAT exam

Three days young, but worth your time if you missed it:

The biggest battle in Brandenton is for a roster spot that might best be simply described as “OF/1B”. The way this works out reads like a question out of the BMAT (Baseball Management Aptitude Test):

Team A must fill four lineup spots each receiving approximately 700 plate appearances for the 2005 season, while using no more than seven roster spaces. Craig Wilson, Matt Lawton, and Jason Bay must start, because Lawton and Wilson are earning a lot of money, and Bay is the reigning Rookie of the Year. All three players can play either outfield corner, Lawton and Bay have each had limited experience in center field in the past, and Wilson can play first base.

Graham Koonce, Brad Eldred, and Daryle Ward can play first base, but not particularly well. Ward and Ben Grieve can both play the outfield corners—badly. Grieve and Koonce were “take and rake” players who now take more than rake. Eldred is a prospect who hasn’t learned to take, but sure can rake. Ward neither takes nor rakes terribly well.

Tike Redman, Rob Mackowiak, and Chris Duffy can all play center field, and none of them are expected to post much more than a .320 OBP in the majors. Redman and Duffy have reputations as good fielders, while Mackowiak is not a good centerfielder. Mackowiak can play many positions, and must be placed on the major league roster because of his salary.

Lawton, Koonce, Ward, Grieve, Redman, Mackowiak, and Duffy are all lefthanded hitters. Wilson, Bay, and Eldred are all righthanded hitters. Question: which of these players make the major league roster, and how do you distribute 2,800 plate appearances among those players?

Nice work from Derek Jacques at Baseball Prospectus.

I don't know about Redman, but me, I think a .330 OBP is a more reasonable expectation from Mack-a-whack. As some fans noticed right around baby bracelet time last year, he put up almost a good chunk - was it almost a full season? - of 900 OPS hitting between the end of 2003 and the start of 2004.

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