Will Carroll has an interesting line in his latest installment of Under the Knife, his regular behind-the-scenes take on player injuries for Baseball Prospectus. He questions the need for the Pirates to bring Wells or Burnett back for any part of this season, and concludes with this:
More worrisome for these pitchers and the rest of the Bucs starters is just how far both Wells and Burnett were pushed when it was obvious that something was wrong.
I've learned a lot from Will Carroll. Some of the stuff - such as the difference between a sprain and a strain, or the fact that seriously injured hamstrings never fully heal - I could have and should have learned elsewhere. Without reading his column, however, I'm not sure I would have ever thought to go and learn such things.
Often I read crazy thoughts about the Pirates and usually I just let it go. This charge - that the Bucs overworked Burnett and Wells when they knew (or should have known) they had bum elbows - really puzzles me. In the past, Carroll, like fellow BP writer Joe Sheehan, has indulged a taste for the doom-and-gloom when it comes time to talk about the Pirates. They seem to enjoy being melodramatic with the pessimism, like it gives them an "edge" or a reputation for "hardball." Sometimes I wonder if they are gloating about the Pirates' misfortune - with an immature eagerness to remind everyone that they predicted misfortune the last time they wrote about them. Above all, I don't understand how they fail to see that this is totally at odds with their conquer-the-world business philosophy.
All that said, it's worth investigating this interpretation before it's picked up by other national writers. I don't want to read all throughout the offseason that the Pirates stupidly handled their pitchers if that just isn't the case.
So, did I miss something? When was it "obvious" that something was wrong - physically - with the elbows of Wells and Burnett?
Wells was scratched from his start on the 18th. The Bucs certainly reported the decision as one erring on the side of caution:
"I think he's more fatigued that anything. Backing him up is the smart thing to do. Why risk it? Why take a chance? We're taking every precaution necessary," McClendon said. Pitching coach Spin Williams said the status of the rotation for the Cardinals series is "an hour by hour decision."
Kip had an excellent start on the 7th of August before struggling against Colorado on the 13th. He threw 118 pitches over 8 1/3 innings on the 7th, which is not pushing it, and only threw 88 pitches on the 13th. Was it obvious in the first inning of the Colorado game that Kip's elbow was inflamed?
-Top of the 1st inning
-L Gonzalez grounded out to third.
-R Clayton hit a ground rule double to right.
-T Helton struck out looking.
-V Castilla grounded out to third.
After two hits and two strikeouts in the second inning, Wells came out in the third, struck out the first two batters, and then walked Helton (his first walk, and hardly an unusual one) and gave up a home run to Castilla. Rockies 2, Bucs 1. Wells lost control in the fourth:
-Top of the 4th inning
-P Wilson popped out to third.
-M Holliday singled to center.
-J Closser fouled out to shortstop.
-J Fassero singled to center, M Holliday to second.
-L Gonzalez homered to left, M Holliday and J Fassero scored.
-R Clayton hit by pitch.
-T Helton singled to left, R Clayton to second.
-R Clayton to third on wild pitch by K Wells.
-V Castilla flied out to deep left center.
And only got one out in the fifth.
Bob Dvorchak heard nothing about elbow soreness right after the game. Not until the 18th did we learn that Kip "began experiencing soreness in his right elbow during his most recent start." Were there signs of potential elbow trouble in the start before the Rockies game?
Burnett didn't pitch well before he left the game on August 21st. Never a guy with a ton of velocity, Burnett's control was off and he wasn't getting the ball down. When your rookie control artist starts leaving the ball up, do you remove him from the rotation with the suspicion that he's injured? In his recap of Burnett's last start, Bob Dvorchak reported that "Burnett likely aggravated something with a twisting, off-balance throw after fielding a bunt by Edgar Renteria in the fourth."
What do you think? Should the Pirates have known Wells and Burnett were hurt or going to get hurt? Did the Pirates push either player in some kind of "worrisome" fashion? When was it "obvious" that something was wrong, physically, with these players? (Wells' troubles earlier in the year were not related to his elbow but to his finger tip.) Should the other starters - Oliver Perez, Josh Fogg, Nelson Figueroa, John Van Benschoten - distrust the trainers and coaches, as Carroll advises?
Perhaps Will Carroll has some kind of inside information that's not available to Pirate fans or beat writers like Bob Dvorchak? He makes a serious charge here. Can he back it up? Or is he just blowing smoke?
... 2pm ... maybe Carroll's half right. Joe Rutter reports today that Burnett "had been experiencing elbow soreness for several weeks before he left Saturday's start in St. Louis because of injury."
... 3:30pm ... on cue, Carroll's back today with this:
"I'm not talking about my elbow. I've been told not to." That quote from Pirate pitcher Sean Burnett leaves me, well, a bit cold. It's the second year in a row that Burnett has had an elbow injury at about this point in the season. While an MRI reportedly showed no structural damage, it's also likely that we've seen the last of Burnett on a mound this season. Pirates sources insist it's merely fatigue for the short lefty, but I tried to point out that short had nothing to do with it.
Left me cold too when I saw it, and I admit I've been thinking about it this afternoon between other more important tasks.
So it is abuse, or is it just a case of Burnett not being the most durable starter in the league?
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