John Perrotto reviews the Kip situation. Perrotto reports that Kip is certain to get a large raise and should win $4M to $4.5M for next year. That should be - with Kip's six years experience - his last year of arbitration, making him a free agent in 2006.
Kip Wells has great stuff and he's as good a bet as any member of the team to put up great numbers next year. Still, it's just a bet. What are the odds he returns to his 2003 form? 1 in 2?
Four million per year will get you a very good position player. Anyone can get hurt or suddenly lose their abilities, but my guess is that a very good position player is a much safer gamble. If I only had $4.5M to spend and had to choose between a position player and a pitcher, I'd take the position player every time. So, I wouldn't bring him back at that price. I'd let some other team pick up that raise, take that gamble, and take a prospect or two as compensation.
It will be a tough call either way. If the Pirates retain Kip and he wins 15 games, Littlefield will look like a genius. If they retain him and he wins 5 games, not too many fans will be angry since he kept one of our own. Far better for DL to spend that money on a guy that's been with us than to spend it on a free agent starter who would come in as a "Proven Veteran" with higher expectations and not much better odds of winning fifteen games.
This move wouldn't be popular with the fans, but if I was DL, I'd consider escrowing that $4M for use in 2006 to keep Jack Wilson and other arbitration stars around. You hate to lose players - fans were terribly demoralized by the loss of Barry Bonds - so you keep the ones you can and, if you have to make choices, I think you keep the position players before you keep the starters and (definitely!) before you keep the relievers.
P.S. What would Wells make as a free agent? The NYT reports that Benson will get about $20M for three years.
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