Walkin' Wilson stealing bases?

Attn fantasy players: Jack Wilson has two steals this spring. Is this a big deal? Maybe. If you play 5-by-5 fantasy baseball, the steal is a valuable thing, so you care about steals and you look for them under every rock. I may have some cut-rate steals for you. Lean in and listen close if this kind of thing gives you itchy palms.

I have a hunch the Pirates abused Jack, at arbitration, for his lousy basestealing judgment. In his career, he has eleven steals in 21 attempts. If I represented the team, I would bring this up at arbitration. That’s wretched. That hurts the team more than it helps. The kicker is this: there's no doubt that Jack is quick, so that’s not physical but mental ability that we see in the lousy steal rate. This is something he should be able to improve.

The consensus view of stat prediction people is that Wilson will finish 2004 with five steals. That’s an easy guess since he stole five in each of the last two years. In 2002, in the spring, he stole one base and got caught twice. He also made six errors in the field so perhaps Mac took him aside and said first things first, young man. He cut down on the steal attempts, finishing 2002 with five steals in seven attempts. In 2003, he made no attempts in the spring and finished the year with five steals in ten attempts.

The Bucs finished the spring of 2003 with fourteen steals. This spring they have eighteen to date, so they are running a bit more as a team. Mackowiak has two steals. When he plays, he tries to run. Nothing new there. Redman has two steals in three attempts; we expect him to run when he plays too.

Jack Wilson and Bobby Hill also have two steals in two attempts this spring. They are also competing for the number two spot in the batting order. Is this a sign that whoever wins that job will run more than the fantasy predictors predicted? Or has Jack Wilson identified his base-stealing skills as one of the negatives he wants to turn into a positive?

Either way, it bears watching if you play fantasy baseball and are looking for unexpected steals. In 2002, Pokey Reese stole two bases in the spring and finished with twelve; Kendall had two and finished with fifteen. In 2003, Mackowiak and Reese got three in the spring and finished the season with six each on very limited playing time. Lofton had two and finished the season with 30. If Jack Wilson makes two attempts for every fifteen hits and walks and finishes the season with 140 hits and 40 walks – I think those are safe, conservative estimates – that would produce 24 attempts and, we hope, at least a little better than twelve stolen bases. Keep an eye on quick Jack’s feet and see if he isn’t working to shed his reputation as a moron in the steal department.