VanBenschoten vs. Burnett

From today's PG, I gather that Burnett is much closer to the fifth starter job than VanBenschoten. This is more evidence of Littlefield's preference for stable progress through the minor leagues. Burnett is 21, but he started a full season (27 starts) at Altoona last year. VanBenschoten split time between Lynchburg (9 starts) and Altoona (17 starts). He's 24. Burnett did a full year at Hickory in 2001; VanBenschoten did his full year in 2002. Neither player has started a game in AAA but, given their experience at each level in the farm system, Burnett is considered ahead of Golden Flash.

The new BP book won't get excited about Burnett because they rank his performance in the tenth percentile for strikeouts. In other words, he doesn't strike out many. On the other hand, he is in the ninetieth percentile on walks and home runs. If he was right-handed, he'd be the anti-Oliver Perez. Given the dimensions of PNC, however, it's a damn good thing both pitchers are left-handed.

Burnett's PECOTA comps are poor (17 index) which means there aren't many pitchers like him. There is one good comp, though: Mark Buerhle. After that there's not many current players who compare. VanBenschoten's comps were discussed here. His higher index (52) suggests that he's a lot more like that list of players.

I doubt the Bucs will break camp with Burnett as the fifth starter. A rotation of Williams, Perez, Burnett, and VanBenschoten should destroy the competition at AAA. Enduring minor-league success is a good and necessary thing for the Pirates. Having Burnett in AAA is not only good for Burnett (possibly), it's also good for everyone else at Nashville. It's a lot easier to focus on your game when you play for a winning team. So, all things in good time. Unless Reed, Meadows, and Torres look totally incapable of starting a game by mid-April, I don't see any reason to rush Burnett.

Well, one reason: say Benson is on his way out of town, and you want to put Oliver Perez at Nashville. Then I think you take your chances with the best of Nashville which is, obviously, not Perez. If you don't get some kind of innings-eater back in the Benson trade, then maybe it's not such a bad idea to let Burnett skip AAA. In that case, however, the loot acquired for Benson had better be good.