Bobby Hill: The Case for Optimism

Keep an eye on Bobby Hill. With Freddy Sanchez out after off-season ankle surgery, and only Jose Castillo in camp as competition, Hill should start the season as the second baseman. If he can add health to his bounty of talent and opportunity, then he’s going to break out big-time. Nate Silver’s PECOTA system compares him to the slap-hitting U.L. Washington and foresees part-time play, but there are three good reasons to think that system might be overlooking Hill by too strongly weighting his most recent performance.

First, Bobby Hill has bounced from level to level the last two years. He was promoted and demoted on the whims of fickle employers, and each time he was burdened as a glittering distraction or a disappointing scapegoat. Hill was a hot prospect or a high-profile flop, nothing in between, and never the same thing for more than a month or two. This is no way to nuture talent.

In 2002, he looked great in spring training but Don Baylor preferred Delino Deshields, who stunk up Wrigley Field for six weeks. Hill returned to the Cubs, slumped for a month, and was sent back down to AAA. Don Baylor was soon fired. Hill returned to the big leagues in August and impressed Bruce Kimm’s 67-win team with strong play in that meaningless end of 2002. Hill was seen as the future at second base and Hendry named him as the starter for the 2003 Cubs.

A week before Thanksgiving, the Cubs signed Dusty Baker. Here’s the second good reason to think Hill’s recent performance does not accurately express his ability. On the day of his signing, Baker spoke of winning with a mix of veterans and youngsters in a nod to the expectation that the next Cubs manager would nuture Corey Patterson, Bobby Hill, and Hee Choi.

Surprise, surprise. On December 4, the Dodgers sent Eric Karros, Mark Grudzielanek, and $2M to the Cubs for Todd Hundley and Chad Hermansen. The party line was unchanged: Choi and Hill would start on the right side of the infield and Karros and Grudzielanek would be a strong bench as well as insurance. On February 3, the Sporting News tagged Hill as a “breakout player” for 2003. The 2003 edition of Baseball Prospectus warned that Baker and Hendry would not have the patience to let these youngsters work their way into a comfort zone. Baseball Prospectus also noted that Hill “does all of the things Knoblauch could do in his prime.” By the end of February, as Baker entered his first spring training with the Cubs, the Illinois sportswriters were pleading for Baker to give the kids a chance. It was plain to all that Baker did not think much of the young starters he inherited from Kimm.

In spring training, Hill went 8-for-52 (.154), made five errors, and was sent to AAA camp a week before Opening Day. Jim Hendry clucked his tongue in disappointment and intimated that Hill let the team down after leading them on with a strong showing in his late 2002 call-up. Thanks, boss. Hill went back to Iowa and turned in a near-identical performance to his several months there in 2002. It’s hard to know what effect Baker’s cold impatience had on Hill’s spring training play, but Baker also found a way to coax the worst from Hee Choi. If fans are prepared to give Choi some mulligan for his 2003 performance under Baker, they should consider the same for Hill.

Last July, the Pirates sent Kenny Lofton and that bitterly underachieving disappointment, Fernando Tatis Aramis Ramirez, to the Cubs for cash, HVAC specialist Jose Hernandez, RHP Matt Bruback, and a PTBNL who materialized as Bobby Hill. The Pirates basically traded Ramirez for $6M in 2004 payroll and Bobby Hill. The Pirates got Hill at a steep discount. Because he couldn’t play for Dusty Baker, public opinion of Hill, as this year’s BP annual evidences, soured. He went from “prospect” to “suspect.” Yet if Bobby Hill is our starting second baseman for 2004, this was a good trade, and Littlefield was right to snap him up as such a Dusty-driven discount. If Hill flops, let’s wait and see what Mondesi, Simon, and Stynes – players signed with some of the Aramis money - do to help the Pirates – on the field and/or in trade - before we issue the final judgment on this deal.

Here’s the third reason to think Hill may be overlooked as a breakout candidate. In the month after his demotion, Hill acquired a stress fracture in his lower back. He kept this to himself as he sought vindication on the field. The back would stiffen up mid-game and was painful in the morning. When Hill came to Pittsburgh he came clean with the news of an injury and the Pirates took care of it after understating its seriousness to the press. If Hill can manage this injury and play pain-free in 2004, we may see that his 2003 statistics were depressed by the injury.

Bobby Hill not only has talent. He also has opportunity. His main competition for the second base job is Freddy Sanchez, who was also acquired with Mike Gonzalez for two months of Jeff Suppan and the return of Brandon Lyon. Sanchez hit .341 / .430 / .493 in 200 at-bats at Pawtucket but, in a familiar scenario with the Bucs, he went down in his first game for his new team. The problem was a bone spur in his right ankle that required off-season surgery. In both acquisitions, then, the Pirates received damaged goods. I wonder if a slippery reputation will help Epstein’s bid for a long tenure in Boston.

Anyway, keep an eye on this Bobby Hill. He played nervously on March 4th, his first game since mid-September. Three days later, he sat down for a week to recover from stiffness in his back and hamstrings. Since then, he’s been dynamite at the plate. He has a 981 OPS in eleven games. He looks to me like a great risk/reward player, someone who comes cheap yet has a lot of upside. Consider Bobby Hill reason #7 that the 2004 Pirates will be anything but boring (behind the trade dramas of Kendall, Benson, Mondesi/Simon, the unknown performance of Oliver Perez and Ryan Vogelsong, and the enduring mission to start Craig Wilson.). As Robert Dvorchak writes today:

Hill's home run sparked a four-run first inning, although the Pirates went on to lose, 11-7. He also singled in the second inning, giving him eight hits in his previous 21 at-bats, and moved freely in the field and on the bases, a sign that he's holding up despite having a stress fracture in his lower left back.

"It's not going to go away. It's there," Hill said of his back. "I just hoped I've strengthened the muscles around it, and knock away that nerve that was bothering me last year."

Paging Will Carroll. What are the odds that Hill’s core strengthening program will keep him fit to play? We'd love to see this in the next UTK. [Update: Will says it all depends on Hill's dedication to the program, and he doesn't know enough about that to speculate.]

Meanwhile, Freddy Sanchez is unable to play and Hill’s only competition is Jose Castillo, who is a great prospect but one who has yet to play at AAA. Any tie will go to Hill, and he has a good lead at the moment. Bobby Hill has the talent and the opportunity to really help the Bucs this year. Let's hope he can maintain his health.