We'll raise a glass to him and wish him well. News here.
Friday, July 02, 2004
The Bucs and Moneyball
Just discovered Chris Kucharski's work at PiratesLIVE.com. He sees higher OBP the lower you go in the minor-league system and wonders if the Pirates are putting an emphasis on that as they draft. Good eye, Chris.
The A's went for OBP not because they thought it the most important hitting measure but because they saw good value in players Now that OBP is valued more appropriately, what's the next opportunity for a small-market team? Former prospects such as Jose Guillen, Ruben Mateo, or Bobby Hill? Some kind of defensive ability? Bunting ability? Basestealing and bunting seem to be out of fashion and might be a buying opportunity for a team that has confidence in their value.
Games 76 and 77, Friday doubleheader
The Brewers are in third place in the NL Central and view the next few weeks as ones that will determine if they are buyers or sellers in the late July trade market. Here are the overall numbers for the Brewers' batters this year. Here's what they did last month. No one looks particularly hot or cold to me. They are a good team, even without Scott Podsednik, who has been limited and might sit out with some kind of plague. The Brewers are coming off a three-game sweep of the hapless Rockies in Colorado.
Chris Stynes will tell you it's damn hard to hit on the road after a cushy stretch on Planet Coors. If the Pirates can get a lot of movement on their pitches today, they could take advantage of this.
The Pirates will miss the Brewers' best pitcher, Ben Sheets, in the four-game, three-day series that begins today. Works for me.
For the men in wheat, game one will feature Doug Davis, a soft-tossing lefty with a handsome goat. An American-League castoff, he's won his last two starts and he's enjoying the best year of his career. He generates loads of groundballs.
The Pirates have seen him two times in 2004. In April he gave up many hits and the Brewers lost in extra innings. More recently, he threw six shutout innings to beat Kip Wells on a good day. No current Pirate has a meaningful record against Doug Davis. Chris Stynes owns a 5-for-12, one double performance. As a summary of past performance, that's exactly true; that's what happened. As a predictor of future performance, the margin of error on a sample of twelve is something like .280. All the 5-for-12 means, then, is that there is a 95% chance Stynes's "true" ability against Davis lies between .137 and .697. And that's only if you believe that hitters have "true" or "intrinsic" abilities up there in Plato's world of forms. (And this makes you an idealist. In America, we call such people "gamblers," "statisticians," or "crazy transcendentalists.") Anyway, such a thinker would consider Stynes' ability against Davis as a subset of his ability against all left-handers. He's hitting .159 this year off left-handers but .292 off them in 2001-2003. Confused? Imagine how Mac feels.
Perhaps the best case for getting him into the lineup tonight is the fact that the team has to play two. With his barky knee, Mackowiak is not a good candidate for eighteen innings a day. A manager normally uses his entire bench in the course of a doubleheader, so Stynes will be in there one way or another. Sad to say, but fans will boo and heckle him all night unless he makes a big hit or outstanding defensive play early. A lot of Pirate fans want Stynes to go away.
Why do we keep talking about Chris Stynes? My bad. No more writing about Stynes for a week, I promise. Let's talk about California-boy John Grabow, who was a maniac on Wednesday against the Cardinals. I'd like to see him do his strike-'em-out routine again this weekend.
Oliver Perez, our Amish-Mexican left-handed flamethrower, will start for the Pirates in game one. If you have been living in a submarine for the last year, Ron Cook's latest will catch you up on the who's and what's of this guy. Cook says "phenom" and other nice things. (Also note how Cook describes the Giles trade as "wonderful." Last year he called it "a horrible blunder" but, to be fair, there's no inconsistency given that he conceded Perez and Bay had a "chance" to be good. By "blunder" Cook alluded to not trading Kendall. If Littlefield sealed the deal by making the Padres grateful for not taking on Kendall's contract, then he deserves some serious credit as a horse trader. Or maybe he got lucky. Who knows. Either way, it's not sensible to make conclusive judgments on a trade that happened less than a year ago. We can only say: so far, so good wonderful.)
Joe Rutter also has game-day coverage of Oliver Perez's gradual emergence.
The Brewers tagged Perez on May 1 in a game the Bucs eventually won in overtime. Even with that rough start, the Brewers have a collective .641 OPS off Oliver. Better is the lack of power: they have no home runs and two doubles in fifty-three at-bats against him. How'd they score five runs off him in early May? They bunched up some singles. Here's hoping that doesn't happen tonight.
In game two, an unknown pitcher will take the mound for the Brewers. Their AAA ace, Ben Hendrickson, pitched Tuesday night so he'll receive no Sean Burnett-type callup. My wild-ass guess is going to be Matt Kinney, an enormous (6'5" 230 lb) 27-year-old righthander who started the season in the rotation. The Pirates haven't seen him this year, but Simon had two homers off him in a previous life. He hasn't been very good as a starter. With Wes Obermueller due up this weekend and struggling, perhaps they will give Kinney a shot to prove he's worth another turn in the rotation.
Dr. Jekyll Josh Fogg beat the Brewers on May 22. Geoff Jenkins likes Josh Fogg a lot.
Mac on pinch-hitting
Mac calls pinch-hitting "the most difficult thing to do in baseball." Bobby Hill is good at it. This from Paul Meyer's notebook.
McAnaney goes to college
28th round pick Patrick McAnaney will go to college. Be careful, buddy. College is not the best place for a future major-leaguer.
Horse-trading news
T.R. Sullivan of the Star-Telegram reports that the Rangers are debating the future of Mark Teixeira (Tuh-SHARE-uh) and Adrian Gonzalez and weighing their need for a starting pitcher. Teixeira's already making $2.6M so cross him off our list. They'd rather deal Fightin' Blue Hen Kevin Mench, whose claim to fame also lies in the fact that he has the largest hat size known to man. Mench is 26, hits right-handed, has some range in the outfield, and runs the bases like a blooper-show clown. Gonzalez is 22, bats left-handed, and plays first. Clearly, Gonzalez sounds like the better fit.
Randy Miller at Phillyburbs.com reports that a team source told him "the Phils have been scouting very available Pittsburgh pitcher Kris Benson, but are unlikely to deal for the right-handed starter." Ah, now we know they really want him.
Jon Heyman of Newsday reports the Mets could have had Carlos Beltran or Freddy Garcia for David Wright. The Yankees and the Mets are both scouting Benson. The Yankees prefer the Big Unit and the Mets also feel they need another bat.
Shannon Countryman of the Illinois Lincoln-Courier disses Matt Morris for losing to the "lowly Pirates" and argues they need an ace. Sorry, St. Louis, you can't have him.
Thursday, July 01, 2004
Kris Benson vs. Jason Schmidt
When Jason Schmidt was traded in 2001, I was fed up with his injuries and his inconsistencies and his character and his tantalizing yet unrealized potential. He got healthy, the Pirates traded him, and he became one of the very best pitchers in baseball.
Here's a comparison of Benson's present-day career stats and Schmidt's career stats on the day he was traded to San Francisco.
| Age | |
| Benson | 29 |
| Schmidt | 28 |
| IP | |
| Benson | 746 |
| Schmidt | 883 |
| Starts | |
| Benson | 121 |
| Schmidt | 142 |
| Wins | |
| Benson | 40 |
| Schmidt | 49 |
| Losses | |
| Benson | 48 |
| Schmidt | 53 |
| Win % | |
| Benson | 33.1% |
| Schmidt | 34.5% |
| Tm Wins, Avg | |
| Benson | 71 |
| Schmidt | 79 |
| K/9 | |
| Benson | 6.45 |
| Schmidt | 6.75 |
| BB/9 | |
| Benson | 3.54 |
| Schmidt | 3.79 |
| HR/9 | |
| Benson | 0.95 |
| Schmidt | 0.95 |
| ERA | |
| Benson | 4.33 |
| Schmidt | 4.59 |
| WHIP | |
| Benson | 1.43 |
| Schmidt | 1.47 |
A few words of explanation: "Win %" indicates not the overall winning percentage but the percentage of starts a pitcher won. "Tm Wins, Avg" indicates the average number of wins of his team while the pitcher was a member. For 1996, since Schmidt pitched about 1/3 of his games for the Pirates and 2/3 for the Braves, a number was reached by weighting the finish of both teams appropriately.
In 2001, when Jason Schmidt was traded to the Giants, he was 6-6 after 14 starts with a 4.65 ERA. Right now, Kris Benson is 5-7 after 15 starts with a 4.78 ERA. The Giants were 58-49 on the day they acquired Schmidt, in third place in the NL West. Schmidt went 7-1 the rest of the way. The Giants finished at 90-72. Schmidt made $3.2M that year and was granted free agency on November 5, 2001. Five weeks later, he signed as a free agent with the Giants.
Dave Littlefield got Ryan Vogelsong and Armando Rios for a three-month rental of Jason Schmidt. Now that he's asking for prospects like David Wright, is it fair to say that he's "asking for the moon"? David Wright, unlike Scott Rolen, has never played a game at the major-league level. Let's not wet our pants over a guy with no big-league experience. Perhaps such a deal is not in the best interest of the Mets, but Wright is a reasonable demand for a pitcher of Benson's ability. Schmidt's post-trade history does not guarantee how Benson will pitch the rest of the year, but Schmidt's case does provide a reasonable precedent.
Mesa in demand
Benson will continue to pitch well. He could be pitching here or in New York. No matter where he goes, the better he pitches, the more money he'll make on his next deal. I'm looking forward to his next start.
Q & A with Dave Littlefield
Ed Eagle interviews Dave Littlefield. Short version: The Bucs are after major-league-ready position players with power and they are ready to deal pitching. Evaulating the season to date:
"It was a pretty solid first couple of months and a poor June. We underachieved as far as the talent level of our starting pitching, played defense probably about per our expectations, and we've hit better than our expectations."
Main goal for the second half: Win more games.
Mighty NL Central
If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. This is no surpise to us - we pointed this out a month ago - but here it is from a conspicuously impartial source.
Meyer's Q & A
Paul Meyer is back from Key West to answer questions. There's a lot of good stuff in this one. A fan writes to ask why the Pirates can't get by as "lovable losers" and Meyer has the answer at the end of his paragraph: Pittsburgh fans don't abide losing teams.
He's also got the Davis-for-Mateo decision measured. I think the Pirates fear losing Davis because (a) he's a former #1 pick and (b) they were caught off guard with all the hullabaloo about losing the Rule V players. As you can see in more than one report, Mac is sick of hearing about J.J. Davis.
Of the five, only Jeff Bennett has contributed this year and he looks lost at times. I've never thought the Pirates lost much worth keeping in that draft, but I can't deny that they had room on the 40-man to protect one or more of these guys. Even had they protected one or two of those five players, how could they know Bennett was the one to protect? Sure, blunders were made, but the team received criticism - especially from the national media - that was far out of proportion to the crime.
Sam Ross Jr. on Mac
My experience has me agreeing strongly with this first paragraph.
Ross also breaks down both sacrifice hits from yesterday's game. McClendon did not order the first one and wouldn't have, not with Kendall already on second. That was all Jack Wilson.
Haiku
Bones wrote this haiku Monday night:
Suppan no-no? No:
All-Star Jack runs in circle,
Man-god Mesa wins!
Smizik recalls Bonifay's House of Horrors
I don't know how you call Tony Womack a "thick" slice of anything, but this rest of Smizik's reminiscence is very well done. It's been a hairy-go-round at 2B since Womack left.
Ah, the horrors of Cam Bonifay. If Smizik didn't write such things, I'd be more successful at keeping these horrible, horrible memories from visiting me as I sleep.
Benson update
Meyer has it. The Pirates want someone who can play now. Add the fact that other "performing" players are in demand - it doesn't take much imagination to guess which players other teams want right now - and I guess the Pirates are looking to package Benson and "a performer" for a deal that includes someone like Jason Bay or David Wright. (The New York Daily News reports here that the Pirates are bent on Wright, as they should be, in their talks with New York.)
Speaking of which, if there is one untouchable "performer," it has to be Jason Bay. If two, add Oliver Perez. The rest of the team should be available. When you're 11 games under .500, there's no point in getting too attached to the guys who started while you were getting there.
... New York papers focus now on Ty Wigginton as trade bait. He's too much like our current Pirates to help our current Pirates, if you know what I mean.
...what could the Rangers offer? How about that Adrian Gonzalez? he's a left-handed work-in-progress at first that might fit well with the Pirates' plans for 2005.
...the Indians are rumored to be eyeing Benson and, with greater lust in their heart, Kip Wells. I'd trade Kip in a heartbeat if we could get a good collection of booty for him. (Don't worry; the link is safe for work.) That Grady Sizemore hits left-handed and looks ready for promotion. Since he starred for Akron, one Altoona's main competitors, in the Eastern League, surely the Bucs have a good measure of him. From what I can tell sitting here at my Pismo, Sizemore looks like a pretty big jewel to lay on top of such a chest.
...more news that the Phillies want him. Cole Hamels is a left-handed starter the Phillies won't use this year. But he's on a the DL with left elbow inflammation ... that's a huge red flag. And Marlon Byrd ... is he the next Ruben Mateo?
...FWIW, Pirate fans run down Benson more than we should. Sure, his career record is not so great and it's been marked with injuries and periods of rehabbing in the majors. Reminds me of another guy who was "injury-prone," "inconsistent," 47-51 lifetime, and sporting a career ERA close to 5.00 (Benson's was 4.27 coming into 2004) when he was traded.
Good recap
Paul Meyer did a nice job with today's recap. The bit about Kuntz putting the stop sign on Wilson made me laugh out loud. I also like how Meyer doesn't bother to explain the bottom of the ninth. Yeah, he's right, we already know. That's a good piece of writing.
Jason Bay Rookie of the Year?
Rotowire suggests that Bay should be in the hunt for the 2004 Rookie of the Year award.
Someone help me out. My understanding is that a player needs less than 130 at-bats or 45 days on a MLB roster in the previous year to qualify as a rookie. Bay meets the at-bat requirement but the service time is close, especially if his 2003 DL time counts. Anyone know for sure?
I don't really give a damn about RoY awards or All-Star appearances. As a fan, for me they are distractions from the main event - the winning and losing - and I'd almost rather have a Pirate not win such awards. With RoY, you get these added expectations the following year. Better to come in under the radar I think. With the All-Star appearances, you miss three days of rest and risk injury in a mid-season exhibition game. Plus, both awards would surely increase a player's value at arbitration time. Sure, that's cold and calculating, but if you don't put the wins first when you're losing long and often, when do you put the wins first? After five in a row the Pirates are still eleven games under .500.
That said, out of a basic love of humanity, I have to root for our boys to win such things if those things help to motivate them and make them happy and so forth. They may be trivial to some fans, but I'm sure they are a big deal to some of the players.
Wednesday, June 30, 2004
Five in a row!
Another sweet victory as the Bucs beatdown the first place Cards with a broom. A solid team effort: Kendall, Jack, Mack-o-wack, and Rake Tedman combine for 10 hits. Chulo looks ugly on the basepaths but makes a nice play at first. Mesa's first blown save of the year is forgiven (Pujols can hit sometimes). Maybe now Bobby Hill will pinch-hit more often.
Big four game series with the Beer guys starts on Friday as the Bucs will continue to try to claw their way out of the cellar.
Down to the river time
I'm taking off Wednesday to enjoy the sunshine at PNC Park, and probably won't post again before Thursday morning. Enjoy the day people.
Game 75, Matt Morris at Kip Wells
As you've probably heard by now, Matt Morris is a home run machine with a miraculously low ERA of 4.27. He's given up 24 longballs this year, and he's on pace to surrender 51 (!) in 233 innings. All but three have been solo or two-run jobs. He's given up 100 hits in 110 innings so far, and of those 100, he's allowed 42 extra-base hits. He's a flyball pitcher so he's going to give up home runs. The strange thing is more homers (24) than doubles (18). In every other year, he's given up about two doubles for every home run. I'm guessing Matt Morris is pretty sick of hearing about this and won't give up any home runs for a couple of starts.
His strikeout rate has really come down over the last few years and his walks have stayed about the same. So when he's on and accurate, he's not going for the strikeout like he once did. He's brought his pitches per inning down under 15, which is good, and means he's a lot more likely to give you seven innings on 100 to 110 pitches. That's also good because he appears to be limited to something like 220 pitches for any two consecutive starts. If that pattern holds, since he went almost 120 the last time out, he may only go 100 this afternoon.
The lower K rate makes Morris a finesse pitcher, and that's also trouble since the Pirates haven't hit much off finesse guys this year. Even worse, his track record against the Pirates is outstanding. The current team is a collective 21-for-105 with only three extra-base hits off him.
In contrast, Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen are card-carrying members of the Kip Wells fan club.
Kip and the Bucs have their work cut out today. Go get 'em, Bucs.
Tuesday, June 29, 2004
Bucs win
Hey, that was a dandy. Sean Burnett is beginning to look like a keeper. And, it's great to string some wins together.
But let's not talk about a winning streak while the team is an inexcusable twelve games below .500. Twelve games below .500! That sucks. Maybe they will do something about it tomorrow.
Rake Tedman I mean Tike Redman "was the offensive star on a night in which the two teams combined for 12 hits" (says Ed). He's looking a little more like the guy we saw in the second half of last year. Just a little - let's not go overboard - but he gets a star for his pretty starless cap tonight.
Randall Simon had a hit and walked again. The walk was intentional so he's putting the fear of Sausage into someone right now.
All the jabbering Pirate fans pretty much agree that he shouldn't play now because he's not part of the future. (Myself included, of course.)
How do we know that? Not too many Pirates are signed for next year. How do we know who's part of the future and who's not?
Maybe the Pirates can get creative and re-sign Simon to some kind of one-year contract (with a pay cut; $800K is too much) that automatically voids if he reports to camp above a certain weight.
Or maybe not ....
Game 74, Chris Carpenter at Sean Burnett
We all know the story with Sean Burnett, our 21-year-old finesse lefty. The Cardinals have no reason to fear him. Edgar Renteria will be looking for a big day.
Chris Carpenter might be the closest thing to a power starter the Cardinals have right now. He's been their ace, but he's not much of a power pitcher. Oliver Perez is averaging 10.76 Ks per 9 innings and Kip Wells is averaging 8.47 Ks per 9 innings. Carpenter, at 7.13, is the best the Redbirds appear to need in that department. He sports a mid-90s fastball with a nice curve, and he's had excellent control this year. None of the Pirates have seen much of Carpenter.
He's a good story since he's really battled back from injuries. He had arthroscopic shoulder surgery on his right (throwing) shoulder last July after aborting a comeback from surgery to repair a tear in labrum the previous fall. The Cardinals kept his pitch count under 100 for most of this year. They stretched him out in his last start, however: he threw 120 pitches and outpitched Matt Clement with eight shutout innings. Carpenter felt strong at the end:
"I felt better the last few innings than I did the first few," Carpenter said. "I'm going to keep on going. I feel comfortable. I feel like I don't run out of gas. I expect to pitch well and go deep into games."
Expect the Pirates to pound Carpenter in the early innings and score, I don't know, eight or twelve runs off him.
Ward's thumb
Paul Meyer has the news in his notebook. He could be out for a while, but he's not lost for the season just yet.
Joe Rutter quotes Ward saying he'll be back in about two weeks.
The injury sounds like something that once limited Austin Kearns, but what do I know.
O'Neill on Simon again
Brian O'Neill has some fun playing at GM of the Pirates. His comparison of Stynes/Nunez to Benjamin/Nunez is a good one.
If Simon can get hot - he has four walks and two extra-base hits in his last eight at-bats, so maybe he's coming around - let him start and contribute. He can platoon with J.J. Davis. If/when Davis shows us he's ready for more, then let Simon go and replace him with someone who can pinch hit. It would be nice to have the big guy on the bench as a left-handed righty-killing pinch-hitter, but his track record as a pinch-hitter has never been good enough to believe he can do it better than Abe Nunez or Bobby Hill. A player like Simon can't sit. I'm not sure how it happens, but it seems like he gains two pounds every time he watches a game from the bench, and he's no good unless he's all lathered up. Maybe they could get him on the exercise bike for the first six innings and see if that doesn't improve his pinch-hitting?
Cook: deal Benson now
Yes, sure, makes sense to me. But let's not all get too eager and spoil the deal. Benson will continue to pitch well.
Jack confesses: it was dumb
Good partisan that I am, I was inclined to think that maybe Jack's baserunning wasn't quite as stupid as it first looked. After all, he did score and win the game.
Jack confesses, however. Here's the story.
With one out and the score tied at 1-1, Wilson drove a pitch from Julian Tavarez (2-1) into the left-field corner for an apparent double. However, Wilson kept going to third when he saw second base uncovered and mistakenly thought first baseman Albert Pujols was not trailing the play.That is John Perrotto's fine reporting. For those of you who thought the local media would play this up as hustle and flash, check out Joe Rutter's story and Paul Meyer's report. (Looks like Meyer is back from vacation. Send in your rants for his Q&A.)Pujols, though, was backing up, took the throw into the infield from left fielder Ray Lankford and threw to third base for what appeared to be an easy out. However, Pujols' throw sailed past third baseman Scott Rolen and into the tunnel leading from the Pirates' dugout to clubhouse, allowing Wilson to trot home with the winning run on the error.
"I've made some dumb plays in my time but trying to go to third base was my dumbest," Wilson said. "As soon as I took off and saw Rolen standing there ready to catch the throw I just kept thinking this is going to be all over ESPN and Fox Sports Net and how the headlines in all the newspapers was going to be 'Wilson's Blunder Costs Pirates Game.'
Mac on Burnett
Steve Novotney reports comments from Mac on Sean Burnett. From Steve's article I learned a number of interesting things:
The team's original plan called for Burnett to pitch the majority of the 2004 campaign for Class AAA Nashville. Once he missed action during spring training and in April with shoulder discomfort, not many expected Burnett would appear as a Pirates starter until after the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.So at the end of March, the Bucs didn't plan to bring him up here at the half-way point. And Novotney's wording makes it sound like McClendon was the one who made the decision on keeping Burnett around. Also we hear Mac shrugging off Sean's "bad" AAA numbers as the consequence of little injuries.However, after the start against Houston, McClendon decided to unseat right-handed rookie Ryan Vogelsong (2-7, 7.13 ERA) from the rotation and add Burnett.
"The fact is he's a talented individual who knows how to pitch. He's one of our best options to try and win games, and that's why he's in the rotation.
"He's had some little injuries that have made it tough for him to find his groove this season, but I think he'll be fine. He's built up now to where he can go out there and throw 110, 115 pitches just like the rest of them."
"He's missed some starts this year (with Nashville), Pittsburgh farm director Brian Graham explained. "But he wouldn't be up here if we didn't think he was ready physically. Nothing is that important. We're not rushing him at all.
Elsewhere in the article, Burnett complains that he's never been allowed to throw more than 100 pitches per game since he signed with the team.
All in all, I'm really pleased with the way the team has handled this guy. My expectations are low in the short-term but high in the long-term. I think he'll be a good one.
Pedro Feliz & Chris Truby
In the spring I suggested that the Pirates should be suspicious of Chris Truby's improved hitting. I compared him to Pedro Feliz. Well, now it seems Pedro Feliz is not the laughingstock at the plate that he used to be. After knocking the ball good in March, Truby has settled in at Nashville to rip it at a .300 BA / .554 SLG pace. These Sportsnetwork stats pages don't provide OBP (how dare they!) but Truby has 22 walks in 240 at-bats. 35 of his 72 hits have been for extra bases. Truby is 30 so he better rip it up at AAA.
I am not suggesting that the Pirates should bring up Truby and audition him at third base. If Pedro Feliz can put it together at 29, however, maybe Truby could do well all of a sudden at 30. Perhaps I was wrong to laugh him off in March. Fair is fair, so here's a spot in the weak sun of the blogosphere for Chris. If trades or injuries lead the Bucs to consider him as a short-term answer at 3B, we'll support him when he comes up.
Monday, June 28, 2004
Happy Jack
...Dave Pinto summarizes the play at Baseball Musings. His take makes it sound not like daredevil baserunning but like heads-up aggressive baserunning.
Mets want Benson
Yes, the Mets are interested. As they should be.
If that gutty Ty Wigginton hit left-handed, and was signed at the minimum for a year or two . . .
Seriously, what should the Pirates want for Benson from New York? Scott Kazmir or David Wright would be nice, of course. I don't know much about their minor-league players. Blake McGinley throws with his left hand and he has good numbers this year. But he's a AA set-up guy. How about Neal Musser, a 23-year-old AA left-handed starter? I don't know if he looks too exciting on paper. Binghamton leads the Northern division of the Eastern league so there must be some decent players there.
...tues ... Here's how Baseball America graded the Mets' prospects coming into the season. Preseason prospect lists are obsolete by now - Kaz Mat is there at #1 - but that's a list of names the Pirates surely know as they look into a deal with the Mets.
Baseblogger blues
Brian, at Redbird Nation:
As Dan over at Get Up, Baby! pointed out recently, winning is often less interesting than losing, particularly for a baseblogger. How much more fun it is to pick over the latest faux pas, the downward trends, and the all-too-human failings of our favorite teams.Groan.
Davis will start vs. lefties
Ed Eagle spoke with Mac about his plans for getting J.J. into the lineup. Sounds like he'll start the next time we see a left-handed starter. In the NL Central, that will be ... August? Seriously, with Milwaukee (four games), Florida (three games), and Monteral (three games) left before the All-Star break, he could get starts against Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, Dontrelle Willis, Michael Tejera, or Scott Downs in the next few weeks.
Josh Sharpless
John Perrotto has a report about Sharpless, our Hickory hurler who's afraid of spiders.
"I scream every time I see one. I can't help it. I hate them. It's awful."His recent streak of dominance coincides with him growing his hair long.
"I sweat 100 times more than I used to and I've got hair going everywhere," Sharpless said with a grin. "It's working for me, though."Funny stuff.
Royals get Bautista
For cash. I wonder if the D'Rays held a little auction and sent him to the highest bidder.
Game 73, Jeff Suppan at Kris Benson
The Redbirds have been the tops in the NL Central on the strength of leading the NL in runs scored. Their offense has been powered by Pujols, Rolen, and Edmonds. In six games this year, the team has roughed up the Pirate pitchers at the rate of .296 / .377 / .479. They outscored the Pirates 39 to 23 and won five of six.
The Cardinal pitching has been good this year. Their pitchers have been solid if unspectacular and plenty good enough to win games with the strength of that offense. LaRussa has a number of good left-handers in the bullpen. As with the previous two series, however, the Pirates will only see right-handed starting pitching. Randall Simon may start at first throughout the series, then. He's been a maniac the last few days, drawing walks, hitting for power, and diving around to make good plays at first base. The only flaw in his recent play has been his inability to understand the signs given him by the third-base coach.
Former Pirate Jeff Suppan beat the Pirates on back-to-back starts in late May and early June. He's a finesse pitcher who gets a lot of flyballs. We haven't done much against finesse guys this year.
The Cardinals beat up Kris Benson in his two starts against them this year.
Look for all the trends to reverse. Jason Bay and Randall Simon will both have multi-homer games and Benson will outpitch Suppan by a wide margin.
That would be cool.
Ken Rosenthal Benson rumors
TSN's Ken Rosenthal reports that the Yankees, the Cardinals, and the Angels have been debating the acquisition of Benson:
The Yankees scouted Pirates potential free-agent RHP Kris Benson recently; the Tampa faction of their front office is said to like him, but the New York faction does not. The Cardinals and Angels are among the clubs touching base on Benson, but numerous scouts and executives question whether the pitcher can handle the pressure of a pennant race. "He's such an underachiever, it's sick," one executive says. "He's tough to watch. It doesn't look like he has a pulse.". . .Ouch.
Clay, thanks for this find.
Smizik: Play Davis, bench Simon
His argument makes a lot of sense. I'm not sure I'd like to see that exhibition spirit in the middle of the season, however. Usually if a guy can't press his way into the lineup, then he's not worth starting. And it undermines morale across the team when some favorite son has a starting job and hasn't earned it the good old-fashioned way.
For sure, give Davis a start per series. The last time he played - or the last time I remember him playing - he was so bad, he would have cleared waivers eight hours later if every club had seen the tape of that game. It was bad out there in right field. Doug Frobel bad.
If Davis can't press for more time, don't give it to him. I may not be right about that, but that's the way I see it.
Home sweet home
As the Bucs come home, why not remind everyone that our home field is super-swanky.
Paul Hagan of Philly News toured them all and likes ours best. Jim Caple said the same thing, only louder some time ago.
I know I agree. I haven't even been to all the parks.
Sunday, June 27, 2004
Pirates score 14
After tonight's game, they are on pace to score 727 runs, which is just what we expected. But they are also on pace to allow 833 runs, which is about 100 runs worse than we expected. The Orioles had a similar scored/allowed split last year and they finished with 71 wins. If the Pirates keep up the .403 winning percentage they'll finish with 65 wins.
Last year, they scored 753 and allowed 801. And they won 75 games.
Revisiting the Giles trade
Oliver Perez, Jason Bay, and the work-in-progress PTBNL Cory Stewart for Brian Giles.
A lot of writers said Littlefield made a "horrible blunder" there because he couldn't get San Diego to take Jason Kendall. One website asked, "This makes us wonder, what was the point on the Pirates side of dealing Giles, if they can't also get rid of Kendall's contract?" The transactions expert for another prominent website wrote that "Stunt Chimp" could have made a better trade. After some false graciousness on the impossibility of Littlefield's situation, the conclusion was this: "That said, clearly, on the surface, Dave Littlefield blew it, not getting an awful lot" for Giles.
As usual, the people who were most wrong (and negative) about the current Pirates franchise were national-audience writers who pay little attention to the Pirates. Take Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci, for example, who wrote that the trade demonstrated "misguided thinking" and that Littlefield acquired "a whole lot of mediocrity" that "won't bring this franchise back to respectibility." (If you read that link, notice that Verducci leads with a letter from a San Diego fan who writes to gloat confirm his notion that the Padres made out well with the deal.)
Pirate fans live with such nonsense twice. First, we have to endure it as it happens. Then, we have to listen to it as it is recycled by people who know even less of the subject than the "expert" who fed them that line in the first place. Since a majority of all baseball fans are flattered when a guy like Tom Verducci goes negative on any one losing franchise, it's no surprise that such ideas spread and endure. Unless you are a Pirate fan, such essays provide another reason to feel good about your attachment to your team. (I.e., "at least I'm not rooting for that team.")
The thing is, despite the negativity of a lot of writers, most of the fans liked the deal well enough when it went through. Certainly the majority of Pirate fans were willing to wait and see, I think.
It's not wise or possible to evaluate fully any trade until three or four years have gone by. In the meantime, however, the trade is looking OK for the Pirates, and it's pretty safe to say that many analysts rushed to judgment.
Game 72, Josh Fogg at Paul Wilson
This is a day game after a night game, so look for a wacky lineup with a mainstay or two getting a day off.
Paul Wilson is a good work-ethic guy who gets the most out of mediocre stuff. STATS tells me his fastball rarely touches 90. Yet he's had a lot of success this year, perhaps because he's been more of a groundball pitcher this year. He doesn't strike many guys out and he gives up some walks. He's a finesse guy. He has no meaningful record against the Pirates.
Josh Fogg hasn't had a really good start since June 4th, with disasters in two of his last three. Griffey, Casey, and Dunn have four homers off him in 28 combined at-bats.
'79 Pirates looking up at Expos
It's Sunday, so the Trib has their feature on what the '79 Pirates were doing this time that year. They were four games above .500 and six games back of Les Expos.
Saturday, June 26, 2004
Huzza Tom Vilsack
The Kerry people are looking at Iowa governor Tom Vilsack as a potential veep choice. Vilsack, raised in Pittsburgh, also appears to be something of a baseball fan. From a NYT bio running tomorrow:
His great-grandfather founded Iron City Beer, the Iowa governor's mansion has a "Pittsburgh room," and Mr. Vilsack says he wants to be buried in a Pirates shirt with Willie Stargell's number and signature on the front and Roberto Clemente's number on the back.Right on, Governor Vilsack.
Huzza roster moves
In the car an hour or so ago, I heard Mac on the pregame show with the news that Vogelsong will pitch out of the bullpen for now. Burnett will stay up. The team has more patience than me with Josh Fogg & his Jimmy Haynes impersonation. That's a good thing I suppose; the GM has to be one of the most patient people in the organization.
Vogelsong will add a right-handed power arm to a bullpen that needs help. He's been pitching better lately. Here's hoping he comes through in the new role. Maybe he can do a creditable Brad Lidge impersonation for us.
Hooray for it looking like Burnett is here to stay with a chance to show us a dozen or more starts.
If the Bucs play their cards right, they can develop the organization's tremendous young starting-pitching depth into a $4M pitching staff. If they re-sign Kip Wells, I suppose that would be more like a $6M staff. Call these guys up one at a time, give them a half-season or more to show their stuff, and then fan them out around the various roles.
Another move that surprised me was Ward's transfer to the DL. Tony Alvarez gets another chance in his place. For more than a year I thought he was the future in CF. Tike Redman stepped it up with Mateo pushing him. Perhaps Alvarez can keep Redman honest too.
Alvarez is another right-handed outfielder. He hits for decent average, has moderate power, good speed, and while he doesn't walk much, he doesn't strike out much either. He turned 25 a month ago so time is on his side, too. Welcome back, Tony.
...Jeff Wallner of MLB.com reports the Vogelsong move now. Vogelsong's reaction is great, positive, upbeat, and both pitchers sound pleasantly surprised. Good solution to a nice problem to have.
..Bob Dvorchak's report indicates Vogelsong may be on standby to return to the rotation if/when the 'pen settles down and if/when Benson is traded.
...Rob Biertempfel also reports Vogelsong's role as long relief. He'll do some work that would otherwise go to Meadows or Torres.
Game 71, Oliver Perez at Aaron Harang
Ten games from the half-way mark, people. The season is flying by.
Of the Reds' big 3, only Sean Casey has done much against Oliver Perez in his brief career. Oliver threw a complete-game shutout against the Reds in late April.
Aaron Harang starts tonight against Kip Wells. Harang is coming off the DL. He was disabled for a sore right elbow in early June after two starts in which he gave up beaucoup hits and runs, and then he got roughed up in a rehab start for Louisville. The stiffness is gone from his elbow or was a few days ago when they cleared him to start, so he'll be throwing free and easy against our Bucs. Let's hope he fails to do anything about his 1.69 WHIP, his .325 BAA, or his 5.43 ERA. He's a huge guy (6'7", 240 pounds) but he doesn't strike out a ton (6.64 per 9 innings this year) and he gets an average groundball/flyball mix.
Craig Wilson has Harang's picture hanging in his locker. Jack Wilson and Randall Simon also have some hits off him.
Simon comes through in the clutch
From Bob Dvorchak's report on last night's game:
Rob Mackowiak got locked inside the lavatory in the visitor's dugout in the top of the eighth, with him due to bat. The door slammed behind him and wouldn't open. While maintenance men scrambled to find a key, Randall Simon grabbed a batting practice bat and whacked the door open after four or five tries.Jeff Wallner at MLB.com adds this quote:
"I had to hit the door real hard to get Mack out of there," said Simon. "He was getting frustrated. He didn't know what to do."
Everyone who thinks Chulo isn't contributing, dwell on this tale for a minute. Such intangible clubhouse qualities don't come through in the statistics.
More on J.J. Davis.
Steve Novotney has a report on the decision. Rob Biertempfel has an entry in his notebook.
Bautista on waivers
Rule V secret agent Bautista is on waivers right now. Now that Tampa Bay is winning big and gunning for their first division championship, they've decided they can't carry him. He could be coming back.
Friday, June 25, 2004
Six-run seventh = six-buck fifth
Uhh. The bullpen has been a weakness lately.
Ray of light: Bobby Hill was first man off the bench to pinch-hit. He struck out against Danny Graves. I wonder if he can maintain his good pinch-hitting numbers if Mac starts calling on him first. Only one way to find out.
Ruben Mateo was designated for assignment which means, if I understand this right - and nothing is more complicated than this stuff - (a) he's on waivers and it could take nearly a week for him to clear, or (b) the team needs written permission from him to send him to Nashville, and he's thinking about it. He's in his sixth season so he should be out of options. Players with five full years have the right to refuse an assignment to the minors - this is the "five" part of the five-and-ten rule for veteran players - but it's not clear to me if Mateo's 250 games over five and a half seasons qualify him as that kind of veteran. I doubt it. Either way, there's a good chance he won't play again for Nashville. Who would claim him off waivers right now? Kansas City? It's hard to believe someone wouldn't take a flyer on the centerfielder.
I don't know why the Pirates didn't expose him to more right-handed pitching to see if he could hit well enough to be a viable alternative to Tike Redman. That said, he came cheap, and the Bucs have a lot invested in J.J. Davis. And Tike Redman has been a better player later. It was a lose-lose situation for the front office.
Game 70, Kip Wells at Jose Acevedo
Here are the 2004 Reds. Half way through the season, they have three guys on pace for 100 RBI seasons: Sean Casey, Ken Griffey, and Adam Dunn. All three of those guys are left-handers so it's too bad we won't get a chance to hit them with Oliver Perez and Sean Burnett this series.
Tonight, if Adam Dunn comes to the plate with a big smile, maybe it's because he's 9 for 21 off Kip with four extra base hits. Those numbers don't indicate much, except that Adam Dunn is Adam Dunn vs. Wells, but I'd come to the plate with a smile if I was remembering all my extra-base hits.
Pitching-wise, the Reds have had excellent work from their bullpen. With a lead John Riedling, Todd Jones, and Danny Graves have been outstanding. The starters have been so-so.
The steady diet of right-handed starters continues for the Pirate lineup. Earlier in the week it looked like Aaron Harang would start, but now I see it's going to be Jose Acevedo, who has struggled for a month or so. He's a little guy for a pitcher (6'0", 185 pounds) with a much better K/BB ratio than Aaron Harang. His 5.31 ERA probably has something to do with the fact that he's given up 17 home runs in just under 80 innings. OUCH. That's not good. Project that over 200 innings and you'd have 43 dingers. Yeah, he's a league leader in that category. Only Matt Morris of the Cardinals has given more joyrides (23). FWIW, Milwaukee's Wayne Franklin led the bigs in HR allowed last year with 36. Acevedo has also given up 23 doubles; opponents are slugging .517 off him. Here's hoping he forgot to eat his Wheaties this morning.
Kip Wells is a power pitcher, of course, who gets a lot of fly balls, so we may see the all-hands outfield - if the Bucs have such a thing these days. Watch his pitch count tonight. If he can get through three innings in 45 or 50 pitches, that's progress; if he's thrown 80 after four, he's the mystery Kip we've been seeing all year.
Jack Wilson on being an All-Star
Steve Novotney interviewed Jack Wilson about the improbability of Wilson being elected an All-Star. There's no doubt about it: he deserves to be an All-Star this year. I've heard that at least a dozen times from play-by-play guys covering other NL teams in their broadcasts of non-Pirate games. Some will disagree, but it's fair to say that a lot of people think Wilson should represent the NL at short this year.
Wilson sees it as a small-market thing. He may be right, but I think he's laboring under a greater disadvantage, namely, the losing team disadvantage. Due to their long and distinguished history as a National League franchise, the Pirates are one of the more popular teams around the country. Most Pirate fans are slumbering with the "wake me when something good happens" look on their faces. (Exceptions can always be found, however.)
Pirate fans have never enjoyed teams of "lovable losers." Losing is not comfortable with us. Look at our mascot - since when has this team based its appeal on being cute? Even gutsy doesn't do it when it's not backed up with BOOTY I mean W's.
When the team starts to win more than they lose, many old fans will be back, and many new fans will join the crowd. When the Pirates put together back-to-back 90-win seasons, we can expect some of their better players to win All-Star elections. In the meantime, it sucks for Jack. But if you don't win with this franchise you can't expect the fans to get too sentimental about all the double plays you turn.
Tipping pitches
Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune has this dissertation on tipping pitches. Print a copy and give it to J.J. Davis. Maybe it will help as he studies the game from the bench.
Roster move today
J.J. Davis will join the team in Cincinnati and the Pirates will have to move a position player off the roster to make room. My guess is Ruben Mateo will head back to Nashville. I won't like it, but it makes sense that Davis would displace the last outfielder recalled.
...maybe not today. In his notebook, Joe Rutter explains they could keep Davis on the DL a bit longer, too.
Thursday, June 24, 2004
Burnett good
The Bucs just lost to Roger Clemens and Brad Lidge, but Sean Burnett was good tonight. 109 pitches got him through seven. Except for the high walk number (4), he was just as we expected - five hits, one K, no home runs. Burnett passed this test, on the road, against a lineup that includes more than one future HOFer. The best thing for Burnett's development would be to leave him in the rotation and see what he can do in 13 big-league starts. Something would have to give for this to happen.
Read Bob Dvorchak's report for more & better.
Joe Rutter's report suggests McClendon will make the decision on Burnett's immediate future after Friday night's game. Sounds like plan A will proceed if Wells is healthy and pitches well. Question, then: what the heck is plan A?
Game 69, Sean Burnett at Roger Clemens
Roger Clemens is just your garden-variety Hall of Famer coming off two bad starts.
Bob Dvorchak reports Burnett's respect for Clemens in a recent notebook. Joe Rutter was all over that too. The old guy / young guy angle has been picked up by the wire services, too.
The Pirates used the same lineup the last three games. Why expect anything different? Maybe Mackowiak or Bay will need a day off to nurse some achy body part.
Of course, none of the Astros have seen Burnett. Berkman switch-hits and crushes righties and lefties alike. Elsewhere in the lineup, Craig Biggio has been pounding lefties this year; Ensberg, Bagwell, and Everett have been pretty impotent against them.
No Pirate has more than six at-bats against the Rocket.
Looking ahead, we see the Pirates will head to Cincinnati after tonight's game. For the Reds today, the Mets gift-wrapped an easy victory real pretty. Mike Cameron got naked in centerfield and delivered it singing-telegram style. Sean Casey left the game with an ache in his hammy. I'd never hope for an injury to the Mayor but it would be OK if he sits out this weekend's series.
Double play rates
According to BP's measure of double play rates, Simon is the second-worst Pirate in that department. The top double-play maker so far this year? Bobby Hill. (Scroll down to the bottom to see the worst in this department.) Hill has six GIDPs in twenty-three opportunities; Hill has six in eighteen.
I'm not sure this is the way to measure the damage a hitter does with his tendency to GIDP. An overall measure would subtract base hits in GIDP opps from GIDPs. Anytime you put the ball in play you risk the GIDP, and you have to put the ball in play to generate scoring. Hill has surely done more in the other twelve opps than Simon has in his other seventeen. At least their current hitting averages suggest that.
Still, let the record show that, by this (flawed) measure, Simon's not the worst Pirate in the GIDP department.
Castillo learning third
The great Ed Eagle reports today:
Rookie second baseman Jose Castillo, a converted minor league shortstop, will begin taking ground balls at third base during batting practice in the coming weeks. McClendon believes the 22-year-old has the potential to develop enough power at the plate to contribute offensively as a corner infielder. "I think he'll get stronger," said McClendon. "Projection is always a tricky thing, but I believe he will eventually hit for some power.""The Bucs may be looking ahead and wanting more room at 2B and SS for Bobby Hill, Freddy Sanchez,
Mac on Chulo
Mac got in a good one about Simon, and Bob Dvorchak caught it:
McClendon had already decided that Vogelsong wasn't coming back for the seventh. His pitch count had reached 107, and McClendon had been itching to give his bullpen a lead to protect. So with two runners aboard, the manager sent up Randall Simon to pinch hit. Simon, who has underachieved at the plate, drew only his third unintentional walk of the season to set up Kendall.Bwa-ha-ha."That might have been the biggest accomplishment of the night," McClendon said of the walk to Simon."
World Cup nonsense
We don't give too many damns about the World Cup of baseball and think it's contrary to the interest of MLB in all ways save their current & asinine & ultimately self-destructive bent on world conquest globalization. Look here for an "AP Exclusive" on the effect a March tournament would have on the Spring Training schedule. This is a PR disaster waiting to happen, and far stupider & annoying that having opening day at 5 a.m. in some other country.
Bullpen woes
Bob Dvorchak sums it up in his notebook. Note the physical problems: Meadows has a sore back; Johnston has a sore elbow. (2pm update: Johnston just went on the DL; Mark Corey is up in his place.) Grabow is already putting on career-high appearance numbers.
Who could stabilize the bullpen better than Josh Fogg?
Vogelsong should stay up
Joe Rutter writes about the coming roster move to resolve the current six-man rotation. Once these guys come up, if I directed this soap opera, they'd stay the rest of the season. If you want to evaluate players, you need good stats. Stats must be interpreted in context, and if the context is shaky and unstable, the stats don't mean as much. Better to isolate variables and see what you get that way.
Joe writes:
If Burnett stays, the Pirates could put Vogelsong in the bullpen. Or Burnett could return to Class AAA Nashville, with a reliever joining the Pirates. A decision might not be reached until after Kip Wells' start Friday in Cincinnati.Either one of those guys could be dynamite in the bullpen....
McClendon doesn't think sending Vogelsong to the minors is the answer.
"I believe Ryan Vogelsong will be better served working under (pitching coach) Spin Williams than having him go to Triple-A and have him dominate at that level," he said. "
If a Benson trade is in the works, and we need to buy a little time to make it happen, why not bump Fogg to the bullpen for a few weeks and keep Burnett and Vogelsong rolling in the rotation? The team could more or less schedule Fogg to come in after Burnett since it's not likely Burnett will be pitching too many complete games. Fogg is not a big-ego crybaby and he would understand how this could help the team develop these young arms.
Phillies, Yankees scouting Benson
Joe Rutter, "Mr. Eagle Eye," saw their scouts in Houston.
Hmmm ... what could the Phillies offer? Marlon Byrd?
Jerome Bettis with the Curve
Check out the Curve home page. The Curve have won 16 of their last 20.
... oops, pictures randomly rotate on that page. Try here.
Huzza Cardinals
Not those Cardinals. Ball State's local paper has this on BSU grad Bullington's start in the Futures game. Brother sounds tired:
"I found out, I guess it was Monday, to play in Houston before the All-Star game and that will be nice," Bullington said. "It'll be good to get some airtime."Bullington has started 14 games for the Curve, giving up 83 hits and 25 walks in 72 1/3 innings. He has struck out 25. His last start went pretty well. I hope he enjoys his airtime.Bullington will team up with some of the best prospect players from around the United States to face the world team on ESPN2. Bullingon, who is 5-3 with a 4.11 ERA, says the Futures game will give him a good chance to recharge.
"Getting to the Futures game is just the kind of thing I need right now," he said. "It's a good chance to re-charge the battery so to speak, it's a good reminder that you're not that far away from the ultimate goal."
Huzza Albuquerque
Surfing Google News this morning, looking for new things about the team that I might otherwise miss, I found the following letter to the editor:
IS IT JUST MY IMAGINATION, or are the Pittsburgh Pirates receiving less coverage this year in the Journal? They have one of the most storied franchises in the major leagues. Two words: Roberto Clemente.This in the Albuquerque, New Mexico Journal. Two words for Rick of Moriarty: Damn straight. I don't care where you live, your local paper has a journalistic duty to cover the Pittsburgh Pirates often and well.
--Rick, Moriarty
Wednesday, June 23, 2004
Jason Kendall picture
Here is a good picture to download, print, frame, and hang in your drinking room.
... larger version from the PG. Thanks guys.
Game 68, Ryan Vogelsong at Pete Munro
Pete Munro is a right-handed flyball pitcher who doesn't strike out a ton of guys. At 29, he's not a prospect, and he's in the rotation only because he's holding Andy Pettitte's spot. Pettite embarrassed the Bucs earlier this year. We'll be happy to take our chances with Munro.
Over his short career, he hasn't had a lot of success as a starter, but he's been good as a reliever. This year, he's reversed the trend, and wasn't great in relief but has turned in two good starts since he joined the rotation on June 13. He's only thrown 73 and 86 pitches in these two starts so the Pirates can expect to see the Houston bullpen early if they can make Munro work. No Pirates have seen much of Munro.
In his thirteen starts this year, Ryan Vogelsong, our right-handed power/groundball pitcher, has not faced Houston. Two of his last three starts have been decent. He'll try to make it three of four. If he does, we'll begin to think that he's turned a corner.
Perhaps because Vogelsong generates lots of ground balls, Chris Stynes has started at third the last three times Vogelsong has started. Maybe we'll see him at third tonight.
J.J. Davis ends his rehab assignment today & will be back with the team tomorrow. He'll ride the pine, study the game from the dugout, and, sadly, not be an attractive pinch-hitting option for lefties or righties.
...while you're thinking about Ryan Vogelsong, go read Steve Novotney's article put up today.
Now pinch-hitting ... Abe Nunez
If you're like me, those words make you look quick and desperate for the closest drink of whiskey. Nothing better summarizes the losing ways the Pirates have endured the last so many years.
Why does Abraham Nunez pinch-hit so often? Because he's a switch-hitter? I'm not sure that's a good enough reason to explain how often he pinch-hits for the Pirates.
When a team is trailing late, a pinch-hit provides a huge lift. Yet pinch-hitting is hard. I can't find the MLB average for all pinch-hitters anywhere, but I'd guess it's below the average for all hitting. So we'll keep our expectations low as we review Abraham Nunez's pinch-hitting career. Here it is:
| YR | PA | OBP | SLG |
| 2002 | 47* | 0.204 | 0.116 |
| 2003 | 30 | 0.161 | 0.038 |
| 2004 | 31* | 0.219 | 0.300 |
The asterisk indicates that Nunez led the team in pinch-hitting appearances. In 2003, Nunez was second to Matt Stairs, who made 39 appearances as a pinch-hitter and did well with them. (His eight hits and four walks produced three runs and nine RBIs for a .317 OBP and a .457 SLG.) As you can see through that link, Noonie's .038 slugging percentage for last year is not a typo.
The most important thing a pinch-hitter can do is not make an out. Usually the pinch-hitter appears in a hole in a lineup - he hits for the pitcher, for example, and there is someone with a good bat on-deck. I don't think that OBP is the holy grail of statistics. Its value is often overrated, in my opinion. The pinch-hitter, however, must get on base to either start or continue a rally. With runners in scoring position, most forms of getting on base are going to produce an RBI, too. Anything but an out.
Trivia time. Guess who leads the major leagues in pinch-hitting? Leads in BA, OBP, and SLG? Minimum plate appearances of 25. Give up? answer here.
Abe Nunez has had three years to work on his pinch-hitting game. Admit it, Mac, he's been a rally-killer. An out machine. Someone that's good for the get-this-over-and-go-home set.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but it's fair to say that Abe Nunez has not been getting the job done the last three years. Give someone else a try.
...P.S. Nunez has been pretty weak against lefties since 2001. 130 plate appearances between 2001 and 2003 produced 24 hits and a .211 / .326 / .246 line. This year, in limited action against lefties, he's hitting .231 / .286 / .231. He should only be an option against right-handed pitching with those kinds of splits.
Mac must want to kill Randall Simon. Here's this big-ass left-handed hitter on the pine and all he can do against righties this year is .187 / .244 / .227. In 2003, he managed .277 / .310 / .441. In 2002, his career year (at the age of 27, no less, that magical most-often best year in a ballplayer's career), he hit .320 / .342 / .510 against RHP for the Detroit Tigers.
Baseball in Virginia
Here's a profile of some dudes who want to bring baseball to Virginia. I found it on Primer, thanks to the immortal Repoz. Primer has a thread for discussion if you care.
I'm rooting for Las Vegas. Kick the Expos out of the NL East, and move Pittsburgh back into a division that doesn't play most of its games in another time zone. The 8 o'clock starts pretty much suck if the game is close and goes late.
Bud has already said MLB would like to move Colorado to the Central and Pittsburgh to the East. That won't tip the scales toward any potential host for the Expos, though.
Tuesday, June 22, 2004
Game 67, Kris Benson at Roy Oswalt
Roy Oswalt was throwing well the last time we looked in at the numbers from Houston. Since then, he's been subpar, losing his last two starts to Milwaukee and Chicago. He's a power guy who generates an average groundball/flyball mix.
No significant data on Pirates against Oswalt, but Ruben Mateo homered off him the last time he saw him, so hopefully we'll see him at the plate tonight. If he gets into the lineup, he'll probably appear in place of Bay or Redman. And maybe Bobby Hill will start tonight too.
...7pm so what do you know, it's the same lineup as last night. They did score five runs yesterday. Maybe my man Ruben will get to pinch-hit.
...11pm nuts.
More Ruben Mateo
Brian O'Neill busts out the OPS to ask why Ruben Mateo hasn't been playing more.
A few week or so ago I looked at the Pirates' 21-day stats and was impressed that the better a player was hitting, the more he was playing. The only exception was Ruben Mateo, but he was recently called up. I've been disappointed that he hasn't been in the game lately. For sure, of late the story is the horrible bullpen work we've been getting. That and the lousy starts. But we can always use more home runs, and Mateo didn't get into the game at all last night. I even sat on the floor looking at this picture. For some reason, a "matchup" one I guess, Abe Nunez and Randall Simon were ahead of him on the pinch-hitting depth chart.
If this is a you-produce, you-play team, Mac will be giving some starts to Mateo. My sense is he won't disappoint.
Mac on Simon and Stynes
Ed Eagle reports these comments from Mac on the fans' sense that the team might be better without Simon and Stynes:
Chris Stynes and Randall Simon have been at the top of the hit list. Stynes, a .280 career hitter entering this season, is batting .212 with no home runs and 11 RBIs in 132 at-bats. Simon, a .297 career hitter before this year, is batting .200 with no home runs and three RBIs in 85 at-bats. The Bucs' Opening Day third baseman and first baseman draw a chorus of boos at PNC Park each time they fail to produce.In Mac's defense, he hasn't been starting these guys and he's wise to think about depth.McClendon, who said that he understands the fans' dissatisfaction, explained why the two remain valuable to the club even as they continue to struggle.
"I understand people's frustrations," said McClendon. "The first thing they say is 'Get rid of them.'
"OK. Let's release them. Then what happens? What happens to young guys who come up and can't compete at this level? Where is your depth? Then you get hit in the [behind] because you have nothing left."
In our defense, Stynes is fine as a bench player who specializes as a defensive replacement, but we have Abraham Nunez and we don't really need both of those guys. If Stynes can't play well enough to start, he's gotta be high on the list of first to go. Him or Noonie or Bobby Hill.
Simon only started his last game because Bay was a late scratch. If Simon could lose some weight and get speedier, he'd get on base more often and he'd be more likely to hit like his track record suggests he's capable of hitting. In the meantime, it doesn't look like he's competing at this level. The Pirates could get the same "production" from Carlos Rivera. The team should never make a move like that just to make a move, of course, but with Ward's strong play, Craig Wilson's ability to play first, and Carlos Rivera's ability to play a bit, the Bucs don't look exposed on the first-base depth chart without Simon.
The fans don't know if the team plans to trade one or more of the position players, so we can't know how exposed the team might be down the road if they lose Simon or Stynes. It does seem pretty clear, though, that once these guys have played themselves into bench roles, it won't impact the team a whole lot if they stay or if they go.
One other thing, Mac: now is not the time to talk like our current collection of players can compete at this level. I'd say we've been hit in the ass pretty good already.
... 2:30pm update ... on second thought, that's a pretty impossible situation Mac was in. What's he going to say, "Yeah, we sure got some deadwood on this roster." Depth is a good talking point for retaining people. He could also talk about patience, gotta be patience, and he could say when they produce more, they'll start more. He can't back into that corner where he's defending the deadwood like they've been productive or will be for sure a week or two from now.
Note to Bob
Re: fourth paragraph. Can we stop counting? I can only take so much mind-numbing. When the Bucs win five of their next nine, then we can look back and laugh at what a good time June has been.
Joe Rutter and Josh Fogg
Joe Rutter and Josh Fogg trade comic lines in Joe's latest on the ongoing Ray Charles festival the Bucs have been enjoying in the locker room.
Minor league update
Lynchburg is back to .500, but Nashville just fell to .500. More as always here. We read this Trib feature daily.
Altoona in PNC Park
Remembering the 1997 Pirates
Seems like an a good idea right about now. Steve Novotney has an article about Lamont's club.
Gammons making stuff up
In his latest essay, Peter Gammons makes up a trade that "makes sense" for the Pirates:
4. The Padres trade Xavier Nady to Pittsburgh for Kris Benson. In his start last Thursday, Benson threw better than in a long while, and this atmosphere might be perfect for him. Nady was almost in the Brian Giles deal last season, and could play first, third or the outfield.Nady is a 25-year-old rightfielder who has some power. Nate Silver's PECOTA projection system compares Nady to Kevin Mench and a ton of other very similar players including Bill Robinson (Yankees version), Tony Perez, Bob Watson, and Eduardo Perez. Nady's been playing at Portland for most of this year. With Burroughs at third and the need for three centerfielders in that Petco outfield, it's easy to see how the Padres could be induced to part with him.
For the record, it doesn't look like Gammons has any evidence there has been any talk of such a deal. It's not even a rumor. It's just Gammons playing matchmaker & making stuff up.
Monday, June 21, 2004
Josh Fogg tonight
Good picture here. He should grow one of those Amish beards and then he'd look more like Oliver Perez.
Game 66, Josh Fogg at Tim Redding
Monday's starter for Houston, Tim Redding, is a right-handed finesse pitcher & average ground/flyball guy. He's run hot and cold this season and has been mediocre this month.
No Pirate hitters have much of a meaningful record against Redding. Kendall's 1-for-14 at Enron whatever this year and usually he hits pretty well there so I anticipate a correction.
Josh Fogg, our right-handed finesse guy, leads the Pirates. Fogg has been generating more ground balls this season and you have to wonder if that's one reason for his recent success.
The big story tonight might be Daryle Ward's return to Enron Orange Juice Park. His career numbers there are better than the rest of his career numbers: .282 / .328 / .479 with 22 doubles and 14 home runs. The Astros were disappointed with his play in his 27th season; 2002 was his second straight "down" year after a most promising 2000 season. They dealt him for Ruddy Lugo - months before running his brother out of town for some off-the-field allegations - to Los Angeles in January 2003. The story then was that Ward was underachieving, the Astros wanted to reduce payroll, and Craig Biggio was going to play centerfield. Hunsicker's remarks at the time must have been irritating:
``I'm disappointed that we're not going to see him reach his full potential in an Astros uniform,'' Houston general manager Gerry Hunsicker said. ``He is still a young player with great talent, and I hope this opportunity will be positive for his career. We certainly wish him well.''Ward proved him right, however, with his poor play last year in Los Angeles. Like Ruben Mateo, Ward has a chance to fulfill the considerable potential most people saw in him as a young man. It would be a great story if he plays this well all year, and it would provide Pirate fans with something to consider when they see Jose Guillen blossoming years after leaving the Bucs as an underachieving prospect.
Ron Cook on ripping the Pirates
Don't miss his latest. That throw from the outfield was godawful, and made me reverse my dim idea that Craig Wilson should be the first guy signed for next year. Trade him to the AL where he can DH and get mad prospects for him. We can find another bat for right field.
Interview with Ralph Kiner
Steve Serby has this interview with Ralph Kiner in yesterday's New York Post. Kiner, who dated Elizabeth Taylor, rates her an "11."
Being a fan
Inspired by Brian of Redbird Nation's analogy, here's some thoughts about being a fan.
What does it mean to be a fan? History can help. The word "fan" comes not from "fanatic" but from "fans" which derives from "fancy." This word, "the fancy," was used to describe the enormous crowds that assembled to watch the epic bare-knuckle prizefights of the nineteenth century. The fancy was a diverse mix of men from all social stations. They interacted as equals and had a grand time watching the fight, betting on it, drinking and getting drunk, fighting with one another, and doing all the other fun things people would do at such things. If the sun was shining and you had a spare dollar and the day off, you wanted to go and be a part of that crowd. "The fancy" became "the fans" and an individual member of the crowd became "a fan." The play on "fanatic" was obvious from the beginning of the usage of "a fan," I'm sure.
The sports fan is often caricactured as a man of id. And no doubt we do turn to sports because it allows us to indulge certain passions and self-delusions that we couldn't possibly indulge in our regular working lives. But sports does far more than deliver that high or sanction that rowdyism.
Being a fan means different things for different sports and in different places. A given team might have a fan culture that breaks down into a wide range of subcultures, too. At Wrigley Field, for example, not all Cubs fans are there to gratify their id's directive to swill beer and holler. Uh ... bad example. You know what I mean.
The basic thing that sports does is bring people together for diversion. The basic characteristic of a fan is not some lack of self-control but an eagerness to go and be a part of that crowd. It's an eagerness to be with lots of friends and lots of like-minded strangers in a setting where everyone agrees to ignore all the usual and painful objects of our attention - work, illness, pain, war - and enjoy all the amenities and distractions of the arena together.
After all, why are you reading this, right now? Not because you're still high off last night's Pirate game. And not because you are jonesing for a hit of irrationality, and not because you feel a duty to perform your religious devotions. Odds are, you're goofing off. You're at work, or you should be at work. You are taking a break. You have gone somewhere that's characterized by lots of people ignoring work. It feels good to be among such people, when you are so inclined. Even if you don't leave a comment or read some comment written by some total stranger, you still have the luxury of knowing you're among other people who are also goofing off.
That said, more Ruben Mateo please!
Sunday, June 20, 2004
Down to the river time
Cue the Ray Charles. Chris Adamski has the kindness to add 'em up and tell the world the Pirates have lost 17 of their last 20 games. Ouch. Put it that way and the Pirates are looking like ET in the river.
It's not that bad, though it is depressing. But let's not get mawkish.
A sentimental bluesHere's hoping the Astros think they'll have an easy time this week.
Will worry you
And make you do
Things that you
Wouldn't do
Only when you
Hear these blues
A sentimental blues
Will wet your eye
You wonder why
You heave a sigh
You start to cry
Each time that you
Hear these blues
Sigh, sigh, sigh
And drool
Cry, cry, cry
You fool
Yes, I know that it's cool
Steve with Kendall
Steve Novotney writes about a conversation he had recently with Jason Kendall. I'm not sure what Jason means when he says that money has ruined baseball. It's doesn't look ruined to me. He's earned his jack and we don't begrudge Jason one dime of his salary. If has the impression that all the fans think his contract "ruins" our team, well, he's wrong.
Here's one of many good quotes from the article:
"Listen, if there is one other thing I've figured out playing this game, it's that the easiest thing to do in baseball is to hustle. Hitting is hard. Fielding is hard. Pitching is hard. There are other factors that go into how well you hit, field and pitch, but hustling is entirely under your control. There's just no excuse."Go read it yourself for the rest.
Joe Rutter: Mac is "green"
Joe Rutter shares our inability to understand why the MLB front office has abused Mac this season.
If "spraying" was a suspendable offense in the NFL, imagine how often Bill Cowher would watch the game from his office.
Oliver Perez
Perez threw 107 pitches to get through six today, or 17.8 pitches per inning, up a bit from the 15.4 pitches he averaged going into today's game. The last three starts he averaged 15.7 pitches per inning. He looks pretty tired here in the top of the seventh; his pitches are missing their spots. Here's come Mac to pull him. Good effort from Oliver Perez today, but not his best for sure.
Darlye Ward hits No. 10
Ward has been hitting well lately after that 1-for-23 stretch earlier this month. He went 10-for-37 (.270) with four extra-base hits (but no walks) in the nine games previous to this afternoon's match. Ward is one of the "washed-up," "mediocre" free-agent signings that has worked out pretty well so far for Dave Littlefield.
Craig Wilson gets the day off
He's in a rut, Mac says in this report by Joe Rutter.
Right fielder Craig Wilson didn't get the ball out of the infield, went 0 for 3 and is hitless in his past 18 at-bats. He has gone 2 for 34 in the past 10 games, dropping his batting average from .349 to .309.So ... Craig Wilson will find and mend the holes in socks as he rides the pine today?Wilson is the only Pirates player to start all 64 games. Perhaps the grind is finally catching up to him. McClendon doesn't think that's the case.
"He's just in a rut and that's only normal," he said. "I think he'll be fine. His approach is fine and he's staying aggressive. ... He'll find his holes."
Another Simon start, another GIDP
Simon has a track record of hitting, but not, I think, at his current weight. Bottom of the first, runners on first and third, one out, Pirates with a chance to have a big inning, Randall Simon at the plate, guess what happens.
It's important, when your starters are struggling, to score often and early and let them pitch with a lead. Kip Wells wrote about this a while back. I suppose Simon will continue to get one start per series so long as he's on the roster, but here's to hoping it's not much longer. The man's a weak-hitting GIDP machine this season.
How often has Kip pitched with a lead this season? Not often, I'd guess, seeing that he's often matched up against another team's ace.
Game 65, Garcia vs. Perez, Father's Day
Enjoy those promotional hats for Father's Day at PNC Park. The Pirates will face another power pitcher, Freddy Garcia. Garcia's name is often mentioned in trade rumors these days. (Click here for Peter White's essay arguing for a Garcia trade at Mariners Musings. Here's to hoping the Bucs score often and early and give Oliver Perez a good lead to protect.
And Happy Father's Day.
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