Nick Cafardo wrote this master's thesis on the current trade market for the Boston Globe. It suggests that lots of things are happening. If Wily Mo Pena becomes available for a starting pitcher, I would think that our "small-market GM" would be inquiring. Not to say that this is DL:
One GM of a small-market NL team said, ``When you're a big-market team, you can trade a pitcher like Arroyo because you can always replace him. I'm not saying you snap your fingers and it happens, but you can deal or you can sign a guy, take on a bigger contract, whereas a small-market team like ours, if you have a reasonably priced starting pitcher, you hold on to him for as long as you can."
But it could be.
The Red Sox and other high-profile perennial contenders probably control the pace of trading more than the Pirates right now, so if you are truly jonesing to calculate the odds that certain players become Pirates, you might do well to study the news on other teams, making your best effort to separate the credible reports from the less confident and more speculative.
Ken Rosenthal is another daily if not hourly source, at this point in the season, for mind-altering trade rumors.