Pirates and Reds

Tonight, MLB.tv, seven o'clock.

I've been looking at other teams in the NL this past week. The Reds puzzle me. What the hey are they doing? I see two 600-PA players: Dunn and Lopez. Encarnacion looks great now, but he's a rook. And my attitude with newbies is this: until they play a full 650-PA season, I'll skeptical they can. He'll probably wear down in August and September. Ryan Freel should play a lot, but so will the utility infielders, Rich Aurilia and Tony Womack. If the Reds don't come up with some bodies worth playing often (Holbert? Snyder? Who are these guys?), I don't see how they will avoid Aurilia and Womack combining for more than 800 PA.

At first base, it's hard to see Hatteberg taking the field every day. He's seen a lot of time at DH in his career.

The bigger mystery is their outfield. Even with Dunn playing a lot in left, they have Griffey and Kearns for center and right. Griffey's a 400-450 PA player at this point; it would be imprudent to bank on any more than that from Mr. Hamstring's-connected-to-the-Ass-Bone. Austin Kearns has averaged in the low 300s the last three seasons. He's not durable. I foresee a lot of playing time falling to their backups, who now look to be -- Quenten McCracken and Jacob Cruz? That guy Dewayne Wise? It looks to me like they do not have enough players.

Some teams can afford to get more players any time they please. The Reds aren't one of those teams. The Opening Day lineup will be good, but I pity the Reds fans for what they'll likely see on August or September 1. Unless Griffey and Kearns both prove surprisingly more durable than they've been in the past, I predict we'll see one of the utility players - probably Womack - starting in left field, for a month or more, unless they somehow come up with younger options worth the tryout.

...that younger guy would be Chris Denorfia. JD Arney runs down the in-house options here.

...speaking of Hatteberg, it appears that Cincinnati has yet to embrace him as Casey's replacement. From Hal McCoy's Q & A posted yesterday:

Q — Didn't they trade Sean Casey because he didn't hit for enough power or drive in enough runs for a first baseman? Then why do they plan to play Scott Hatteberg at first base when his numbers are worse than Casey's? Hatteberg's a guy who has never hit more than 15 homers or driven in more than 82. — Gib, Washington, D.C.

A — And you forgot that Hatteberg's career batting average is nearly 35 points lower than Casey's. All this proves is that Casey's trade to Pittsburgh was a Salary Dump — capital S, capital D — because Hatteberg is not the offensive player Casey is. Bob Castellini's baseball people, led by former GM Dan O'Brien, convinced the new owner that the trade was a baseball trade. If it was, Dave Williams better be very, very good.

FWIW, McCoy adores Casey.