Saturday, January 14, 2006

Capping the Steelers-Colts game, part 2

One thing going for the Steelers tomorrow is the fact that this is their second straight road game. Recently, all visitors, regardless of the spread, have won about 42% of all games. If you break that down into teams that are coming off a home game and teams that are coming off a road game, the team that has just hit the road wins about 41% and the team playing the second consecutive road game wins about 45% of all games.

Before you read on, keep in mind that all of this is alchemy and for entertainment purposes only. I don't wager real money on NFL games, mainly because you must win 60% or more to break even under the current tax laws.

In games where the home team is favored by three or more points, those numbers fall considerably for the visitor. Here the visitor wins about 27% of the time, with the visitor coming off a road game winning 31%.

Also favoring the Steelers here is the fact that visitors coming off a convincing win (SU and ATS) do better than visitors who only won, only covered, or lost miserably the previous week. To a lesser extent than baseball, football is a game of streaks. You can do OK by simply riding the hottest teams.

In games like tomorrow's case, with the visiting team coming off a road game in which they won SU and ATS, since 2002, the visitors won 13 of 38 games in which the home team was heavily favored. That's 34%, which is a robust winning chance for a heavy-underdog visitor.

So there are factors here that make me like the Steelers a lot ATS. (Visitors covered 25 of 38 in that same sample, or 66% of the time.) They are on the road again. And they just won convincingly, and thus can be fairly judged as on the rise. And I like the under, as I explained in the previous post.

I know the Steelers lost by 19 points in their last game, when their offensive line, quarterback, and running game were not close to full strength. The current line of about ten points measures public opinion more than it measures a scientific difference between the teams. In the Sagarin ratings, for example, the Steelers trail the Colts by three points overall and by only one point in "PREDICTOR," his best measure for forecasting games. Given the state of the Steelers the last time they played, and their improved health now, I'd say a more rational line would be in the four to six point range, which includes three points for home-field advantage.

I like the under and for sure I like the Steelers to cover that spread. Will they win the game outright? That's all that matters. I guess their chances to win straight up are better than most believe. I bet the number is 34% or more. Maybe 40%. As a Steeler fan, I've been on the wrong side of this kind of playoff game too often. It's not easy dominating all season long, then playing a home playoff game as a heavy favorite against an experienced and long-winning team. The Colts will have a struggle.

My gut says the game will play something like the Steelers-Patriots playoff game last year. The Steelers pounded the Patriots in the regular season, and then they got pounded in the playoffs. As the Sports Pickle reminds us in that satire (previous post), the Colts do not have a lot of positive playoff experience.

That said, it's more likely that a bunch of false start penalties and a porous third-down defense will give the game away. It's hard to see how the Steelers should be favored to win outright.

But the Steelers have more than a fair shot to shock the world and win this thing.

I'll go out on a limb and offer a prediction in which the Steelers win. Should they win, I see something like a 24-16 nailbiter in which they get a lead, sit on it, dominate the time of possession in the second half, and turn back a last-minute no-huddle drive for the tie.

No comments:

Post a Comment