Thursday, October 27, 2005

Littlefield's off-season work

Chris Kucharski has some new posts at his usually-quiet Trib-R Bucco Blog. Also see Dejan Kovacevic's Q & A and Ed Eagle's interview with Littlefield.

I have posts working on most of the subjects he raises. If my drafts were more temperate, I'd be closer to a whole series of posts about the 2005 and 2006 rosters. Now is the time for us to debate the offseason moves.

Kucharski suggests:

Trade analysis: The Pirates should swing for the fences when making a trade. Don't forget though. You have to give up something to get something. That's why it is important for Littlefield to get the right guy. Tracy or Dunn would be my first choices, and I would give up anyone except Zach Duke to get either one. They both can play two positions, which gives you some flexibility. If they trade for someone, they might have to resort to free agency to fill one of the other holes, even if that means going back to those mid-tier free agents. Bottom line: Here is what I would like to see: Trade Oliver Perez, Ian Snell, Jeff Miller and Humberto Cota for Dunn. Sign Bill Mueller to play third base. Sign Tom Gordon to be your closer. Dunn has two more years of arbitration left and then would become a free agent for the 2008 season. He made $4.6 million this past season and should make around $6 million this year. This would add around $15 million to the payroll next season.

The Pirates need a Jason Bay-caliber bat to play 155-160 games. Odds are they can only find that in RF and/or 1B.

All the other needs are secondary.

I saw Sanchez tear through September, and I noted Mackowiak's struggles in centerfield (playing him there for a whole month was McClendon's worst decision of 2005, in my opinion). So I don't think third base is that great a problem. A Sanchez/Mackowiak platoon at third could be great. Sanchez hit .326/.369/.459 against left-handers. Rob Mackowiak hit .312/.385/.471 as a third baseman, and Mackowiak saw few lefties in there (he can't hit them). Mackowiak's 2005 stats suck mainly because of the awful numbers he posted as an out-of-position CF (.202/.261/.290).

I would trade Zach Duke. His future is Mark Buehrle-esque. That's awesome, but we have a lot of starting pitching. You have to trade off the top of your deck if you expect to get a top-notch player in return. I am not eager to trade Zach Duke. Rather I think we have enough in the soft-tossing lefty department to dangle him for the kind of hitter we so need.

I would love to sell Oliver Perez high and invest that money into a steady hitter. The Pirates can't afford dot-com stocks like Ollie. He went past the point of no return for me this season. I don't trust him to get his act together and patiently dominate the league for another season.

Kip Wells I would give away. See how I have no credibility? I think Kip Wells has proven that his ceiling is in the Brett Tomko / Ramon Ortiz / Jimmy Anderson level. He had his chances to prove otherwise. If we can keep him at low cost as a fifth starter, then I'm OK but not happy. In the meantime, I roll my eyes at all talk of him breaking out into a bona fide #1 or #2 starter.

Regardless, at this point the Pirates should be willing to trade anyone. Bay would be my only untouchable.

Adam Dunn will be frightfully expensive in a year or two. That is the kind of player we need, though. I would seriously explore what it would take to get him for two years. Could we get a FA like Brian Giles for just one year? If we could, I think that would be wise.

I also think Chad Tracy would make a good fit.

Hank Blalock looks like a good target, too. He can't hit lefties so he would need a platoon partner.

Another guy I'd consider is Lyle Overbay. He's not worth Zach Duke, but he's steady. We've learned that we can't depend on streaky types like Craig Wilson. When they slump viciously, the team falls into a deep hole. Like an overmatched power-running football team, the Pirates have to begin 2006 with the strategy of Staying in the Game.

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