Tuesday, July 19, 2005

Mike Lowell rumor

They'll play two.

Mike Lowell is not a terrible idea. He's come around after a bad-luck-driven poor start, but I wouldn't expect him to return to his 2002-2004 peak. His 2005 numbers look bad compared to that stretch, but they look more typical compared to his career numbers. STATS wrote this about him in the last offseason:

Lowell always had been a dead-pull hitter, but he made a concerted effort last year to hit more balls to right-center, where he has enough power to take pitchers out of the park. He showed better pitch selection and built his walk total to a career best. He still likes the ball middle-in and thigh high, and will yank inside mistakes over the relatively short porch in left at Pro Player Stadium. He's a marked flyball hitter who can have trouble with high fastballs and breaking balls away, although in general he did a better job of tracking breaking stuff. He crushes lefties and holds his own against righthanders. Lowell has been one of the club's most reliable clutch hitters, but last year only nine of his 27 homers came with men on base.

Here's the bad: It does not sound like he's built for PNC Park. He has two-and-a-half years on his contract; it's worth about 8M per year. He has been as inconsistent as Rob Mackowiak. His monthly OPS splits for 2004, a peak year, were 993 / 1183 / 692 / 927 / 619 / 790.

What I like about him: he's done his best hitting as a cleanup hitter. Rob Mackowiak still has a 1000+ OPS as a third baseman, but he has not been much of a cleanup hitter. He plays third base. Jose Bautista looks a year or more away.

Lowell looks to me like a 277 / 346 / 477 hitter - no Aramis Ramirez but no Chris Stynes or Ty Wigginton, either. If he gets slumpy, he can start against lefties, and Rob Mackowiak can take some of his at-bats against righties. A Lowell / Mackowiak platoon could be very strong.

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