Tuesday, May 04, 2004

.378 OBP = poor plate discipline?

Idly touring about different basball sites, in two places we find writers expressing cynicism about high-BA, low-walk-rate hitters this year. Adrian Beltre and Jack Wilson are the objects of "enlightened" skepticism (as though enlightenment and cynicism ever go hand-in-hand). Both are hitting in the .360s with just a few walks. Since there's no risk in predicting that both players will finish the year with lower batting averages, it's absurd to venture that argument like a prophet, even if you come bearing evidence of low walk rates.

Sure, no one expects either hitter to keep up that batting average. But here's what I don't get. If you are hitting .360, how can it be said that you have shown poor plate discipline? The point of plate discipline is hitting pitches with authority. A guy who hits .220 with few walks is a fair target, but anyone hitting in the .360s has shown great plate discipline in my book. You can't hit in the .360s without being selective and judicious at the plate.

Another thing to consider is that the prototypical high-BA, high-OBP slugger (e.g., Albert Pujols) draws a lot of walks because teams pitch around him or refuse to give him anything good to hit. Jack Wilson doesn't have the power to draw those kinds of walks. Over the last 21 days, he's hitting .338 with one walk in fifteen games. Only five of his fifteen hits have gone for extra bases. If he does that all year, the man has awesome plate discipline. That .358 OBP considerably exceeds our hopes and dreams for the little guy. He won't be Albert Pujols but he will be a big plus in the number two hole if he can maintain this kind of production. If the walks don't pick up when the hits fall off, then we can start to question his approach at the plate. Until then, let's not be fools and whine that he's not walking as often as Albert Pujols or Manny Ramirez.

Tike Redman is a good example of a guy who should be encouraged to show more patience at the plate. He's hit .216 with one walk in his last 74 appearances. This guy is pressing and the few walks don't suggest he's just going through a spell when he's not getting pitches to drive.

...8pm update: Steve Novotney at the Intelligencer/Wheeling News-Register reports that Jack Wilson has a .400 OBP as a goal this season. Don't tell me he doesn't want to draw walks when he doesn't see a pitch he can crush. And speaking of crushing pitches - holy crap - Jack Wilson just crushed a monster home run off Andy Pettitte. Wow.

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