Tuesday, April 20, 2004

Kendall's value

Brian O'Neill writes about Kendall earning his paycheck. Yes, Kendall earns his paycheck, or most of it at least. There's no doubt he's a good player to have around and a valuable part of a winning team. It's good that so many Pirate writers are realizing this and rallying behind him.

The way I understand the pay scale in this league, salaries go up exponentially as a player's ability rises slightly above that of his peers. In other words, a catcher with a total Platonic ideal value of x may be worth $1M per year and a catcher with a total Platonic ideal value of 2x may be worth $4M per year. 3x, $12M per year. Even at $8M per year, Kendall shouldn't be expected to be eight times the catcher you could get at $1M per year. You can only field nine players at a time and to get some separation from the other clubs you have to pay a high premium for what might be a slight (but significant) upgrade at one of those nine positions. This is especially true up the middle (C, SS, 2B, CF). Giles is a great, great player, but it's easier to replace at least a good portion of his production since he is a corner outfielder. The dropoff from Jason Kendall to Humberto Cota or Dan Wilson is much greater than the dropoff from Giles to Mondesi.

We also have to think of the money invested in our catcher as an investment in the pitching staff. The Pirates can't afford to start some rookie klutz behind the plate. They need a highly-intelligent and agile signal caller who can help the young pitchers by calling a good game, exuding confidence, preventing wild pitches, minimizing passed balls, and being in position when the ball is in play and runners are moving. A rookie catcher might be a klutz behind the plate, and he won't know the hitters, and he won't have any kind of skill handling the zone or umpires or preventing tantrums on the mound.

Right now, the young pitchers appear to be coming along just fine. What role did Kendall play in the unexpected emergence of Van Benschoten and Burnett this spring? If the future of the team depends on Oliver Perez's continued progress, wouldn't be penny-wise and pound-foolish to dump Kendall's salary, considering that it may jeopardize the fragile success of the rookie starters? Maybe Kendall is not part of the reason they have looked good this season. Still, shouldn't we be reluctant to fix what isn't broken?

Benson is a different story. He can leave anytime. We have a long line of starting pitching prospects who are ready for his spot. Benson won't be here next year so the Pirates would be wise to get something for him when they can. His heath history suggests any run of good pitching from him might be fleeting. Trade him when his stock is high. He may be the next Jason Schmidt. That's fine. Maybe he'll win 17 games as a Diamondback. I can live with that. Even in such a best-case scenario, he's not as valuable a player as Kendall. I don't care how many home runs Jason Kendall hits. That doesn't matter too much at all. There are plenty of inferior players signed to equally inflated contracts. One or two guys per team is par for the course. The Tigers had their Damion Easley, the Indians have their Omar Vizquel. No club can expect every one of their long-term deals to look brilliant as it ages. Even Ken Griffey Jr.'s contract is an albatross. Let's get over the value of Kendall's salary. He isn't Derek Bell, as I've argued before. Let's concentrate on his ability to help the team win now and not begrudge him his payday.

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