Game 69, Sean Burnett at Roger Clemens

Roger Clemens is just your garden-variety Hall of Famer coming off two bad starts.

Bob Dvorchak reports Burnett's respect for Clemens in a recent notebook. Joe Rutter was all over that too. The old guy / young guy angle has been picked up by the wire services, too.

The Pirates used the same lineup the last three games. Why expect anything different? Maybe Mackowiak or Bay will need a day off to nurse some achy body part.

Of course, none of the Astros have seen Burnett. Berkman switch-hits and crushes righties and lefties alike. Elsewhere in the lineup, Craig Biggio has been pounding lefties this year; Ensberg, Bagwell, and Everett have been pretty impotent against them.

No Pirate has more than six at-bats against the Rocket.

Looking ahead, we see the Pirates will head to Cincinnati after tonight's game. For the Reds today, the Mets gift-wrapped an easy victory real pretty. Mike Cameron got naked in centerfield and delivered it singing-telegram style. Sean Casey left the game with an ache in his hammy. I'd never hope for an injury to the Mayor but it would be OK if he sits out this weekend's series.

Double play rates

According to BP's measure of double play rates, Simon is the second-worst Pirate in that department. The top double-play maker so far this year? Bobby Hill. (Scroll down to the bottom to see the worst in this department.) Hill has six GIDPs in twenty-three opportunities; Hill has six in eighteen.

I'm not sure this is the way to measure the damage a hitter does with his tendency to GIDP. An overall measure would subtract base hits in GIDP opps from GIDPs. Anytime you put the ball in play you risk the GIDP, and you have to put the ball in play to generate scoring. Hill has surely done more in the other twelve opps than Simon has in his other seventeen. At least their current hitting averages suggest that.

Still, let the record show that, by this (flawed) measure, Simon's not the worst Pirate in the GIDP department.

Castillo learning third

The great Ed Eagle reports today:

Rookie second baseman Jose Castillo, a converted minor league shortstop, will begin taking ground balls at third base during batting practice in the coming weeks. McClendon believes the 22-year-old has the potential to develop enough power at the plate to contribute offensively as a corner infielder. "I think he'll get stronger," said McClendon. "Projection is always a tricky thing, but I believe he will eventually hit for some power.""

The Bucs may be looking ahead and wanting more room at 2B and SS for Bobby Hill, Freddy Sanchez, Terry Shumpert, and Jeff Keppinger.

Mac on Chulo

Mac got in a good one about Simon, and Bob Dvorchak caught it:

McClendon had already decided that Vogelsong wasn't coming back for the seventh. His pitch count had reached 107, and McClendon had been itching to give his bullpen a lead to protect. So with two runners aboard, the manager sent up Randall Simon to pinch hit. Simon, who has underachieved at the plate, drew only his third unintentional walk of the season to set up Kendall.

"That might have been the biggest accomplishment of the night," McClendon said of the walk to Simon."

Bwa-ha-ha.

World Cup nonsense

We don't give too many damns about the World Cup of baseball and think it's contrary to the interest of MLB in all ways save their current & asinine & ultimately self-destructive bent on world conquest globalization. Look here for an "AP Exclusive" on the effect a March tournament would have on the Spring Training schedule. This is a PR disaster waiting to happen, and far stupider & annoying that having opening day at 5 a.m. in some other country.

Bullpen woes

Bob Dvorchak sums it up in his notebook. Note the physical problems: Meadows has a sore back; Johnston has a sore elbow. (2pm update: Johnston just went on the DL; Mark Corey is up in his place.) Grabow is already putting on career-high appearance numbers.

Who could stabilize the bullpen better than Josh Fogg?

Vogelsong should stay up

Joe Rutter writes about the coming roster move to resolve the current six-man rotation. Once these guys come up, if I directed this soap opera, they'd stay the rest of the season. If you want to evaluate players, you need good stats. Stats must be interpreted in context, and if the context is shaky and unstable, the stats don't mean as much. Better to isolate variables and see what you get that way.

Joe writes:

If Burnett stays, the Pirates could put Vogelsong in the bullpen. Or Burnett could return to Class AAA Nashville, with a reliever joining the Pirates. A decision might not be reached until after Kip Wells' start Friday in Cincinnati.

...

McClendon doesn't think sending Vogelsong to the minors is the answer.

"I believe Ryan Vogelsong will be better served working under (pitching coach) Spin Williams than having him go to Triple-A and have him dominate at that level," he said. "

Either one of those guys could be dynamite in the bullpen.

If a Benson trade is in the works, and we need to buy a little time to make it happen, why not bump Fogg to the bullpen for a few weeks and keep Burnett and Vogelsong rolling in the rotation? The team could more or less schedule Fogg to come in after Burnett since it's not likely Burnett will be pitching too many complete games. Fogg is not a big-ego crybaby and he would understand how this could help the team develop these young arms.

Phillies, Yankees scouting Benson

Joe Rutter, "Mr. Eagle Eye," saw their scouts in Houston.

Hmmm ... what could the Phillies offer? Marlon Byrd?

Jerome Bettis with the Curve

Check out the Curve home page. The Curve have won 16 of their last 20.

... oops, pictures randomly rotate on that page. Try here.

Huzza Cardinals

Not those Cardinals. Ball State's local paper has this on BSU grad Bullington's start in the Futures game. Brother sounds tired:

"I found out, I guess it was Monday, to play in Houston before the All-Star game and that will be nice," Bullington said. "It'll be good to get some airtime."

Bullington will team up with some of the best prospect players from around the United States to face the world team on ESPN2. Bullingon, who is 5-3 with a 4.11 ERA, says the Futures game will give him a good chance to recharge.

"Getting to the Futures game is just the kind of thing I need right now," he said. "It's a good chance to re-charge the battery so to speak, it's a good reminder that you're not that far away from the ultimate goal."

Bullington has started 14 games for the Curve, giving up 83 hits and 25 walks in 72 1/3 innings. He has struck out 25. His last start went pretty well. I hope he enjoys his airtime.

Huzza Albuquerque

Surfing Google News this morning, looking for new things about the team that I might otherwise miss, I found the following letter to the editor:

IS IT JUST MY IMAGINATION, or are the Pittsburgh Pirates receiving less coverage this year in the Journal? They have one of the most storied franchises in the major leagues. Two words: Roberto Clemente.
--Rick, Moriarty

This in the Albuquerque, New Mexico Journal. Two words for Rick of Moriarty: Damn straight. I don't care where you live, your local paper has a journalistic duty to cover the Pittsburgh Pirates often and well.

Jason Kendall picture

Here is a good picture to download, print, frame, and hang in your drinking room.

... larger version from the PG. Thanks guys.

Pirates win

I feel funny ... kinda weightless.

Game 68, Ryan Vogelsong at Pete Munro

Pete Munro is a right-handed flyball pitcher who doesn't strike out a ton of guys. At 29, he's not a prospect, and he's in the rotation only because he's holding Andy Pettitte's spot. Pettite embarrassed the Bucs earlier this year. We'll be happy to take our chances with Munro.

Over his short career, he hasn't had a lot of success as a starter, but he's been good as a reliever. This year, he's reversed the trend, and wasn't great in relief but has turned in two good starts since he joined the rotation on June 13. He's only thrown 73 and 86 pitches in these two starts so the Pirates can expect to see the Houston bullpen early if they can make Munro work. No Pirates have seen much of Munro.

In his thirteen starts this year, Ryan Vogelsong, our right-handed power/groundball pitcher, has not faced Houston. Two of his last three starts have been decent. He'll try to make it three of four. If he does, we'll begin to think that he's turned a corner.

Perhaps because Vogelsong generates lots of ground balls, Chris Stynes has started at third the last three times Vogelsong has started. Maybe we'll see him at third tonight.

J.J. Davis ends his rehab assignment today & will be back with the team tomorrow. He'll ride the pine, study the game from the dugout, and, sadly, not be an attractive pinch-hitting option for lefties or righties.

...while you're thinking about Ryan Vogelsong, go read Steve Novotney's article put up today.

Now pinch-hitting ... Abe Nunez

If you're like me, those words make you look quick and desperate for the closest drink of whiskey. Nothing better summarizes the losing ways the Pirates have endured the last so many years.

Why does Abraham Nunez pinch-hit so often? Because he's a switch-hitter? I'm not sure that's a good enough reason to explain how often he pinch-hits for the Pirates.

When a team is trailing late, a pinch-hit provides a huge lift. Yet pinch-hitting is hard. I can't find the MLB average for all pinch-hitters anywhere, but I'd guess it's below the average for all hitting. So we'll keep our expectations low as we review Abraham Nunez's pinch-hitting career. Here it is:

YR	PA	OBP	SLG
2002	47*	0.204	0.116
2003	30	0.161	0.038
2004	31*	0.219	0.300

The asterisk indicates that Nunez led the team in pinch-hitting appearances. In 2003, Nunez was second to Matt Stairs, who made 39 appearances as a pinch-hitter and did well with them. (His eight hits and four walks produced three runs and nine RBIs for a .317 OBP and a .457 SLG.) As you can see through that link, Noonie's .038 slugging percentage for last year is not a typo.

The most important thing a pinch-hitter can do is not make an out. Usually the pinch-hitter appears in a hole in a lineup - he hits for the pitcher, for example, and there is someone with a good bat on-deck. I don't think that OBP is the holy grail of statistics. Its value is often overrated, in my opinion. The pinch-hitter, however, must get on base to either start or continue a rally. With runners in scoring position, most forms of getting on base are going to produce an RBI, too. Anything but an out.

Trivia time. Guess who leads the major leagues in pinch-hitting? Leads in BA, OBP, and SLG? Minimum plate appearances of 25. Give up? answer here.

Abe Nunez has had three years to work on his pinch-hitting game. Admit it, Mac, he's been a rally-killer. An out machine. Someone that's good for the get-this-over-and-go-home set.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but it's fair to say that Abe Nunez has not been getting the job done the last three years. Give someone else a try.

...P.S. Nunez has been pretty weak against lefties since 2001. 130 plate appearances between 2001 and 2003 produced 24 hits and a .211 / .326 / .246 line. This year, in limited action against lefties, he's hitting .231 / .286 / .231. He should only be an option against right-handed pitching with those kinds of splits.

Mac must want to kill Randall Simon. Here's this big-ass left-handed hitter on the pine and all he can do against righties this year is .187 / .244 / .227. In 2003, he managed .277 / .310 / .441. In 2002, his career year (at the age of 27, no less, that magical most-often best year in a ballplayer's career), he hit .320 / .342 / .510 against RHP for the Detroit Tigers.

Baseball in Virginia

Here's a profile of some dudes who want to bring baseball to Virginia. I found it on Primer, thanks to the immortal Repoz. Primer has a thread for discussion if you care.

I'm rooting for Las Vegas. Kick the Expos out of the NL East, and move Pittsburgh back into a division that doesn't play most of its games in another time zone. The 8 o'clock starts pretty much suck if the game is close and goes late.

Bud has already said MLB would like to move Colorado to the Central and Pittsburgh to the East. That won't tip the scales toward any potential host for the Expos, though.

Game 67, Kris Benson at Roy Oswalt

Roy Oswalt was throwing well the last time we looked in at the numbers from Houston. Since then, he's been subpar, losing his last two starts to Milwaukee and Chicago. He's a power guy who generates an average groundball/flyball mix.

No significant data on Pirates against Oswalt, but Ruben Mateo homered off him the last time he saw him, so hopefully we'll see him at the plate tonight. If he gets into the lineup, he'll probably appear in place of Bay or Redman. And maybe Bobby Hill will start tonight too.

...7pm so what do you know, it's the same lineup as last night. They did score five runs yesterday. Maybe my man Ruben will get to pinch-hit.

...11pm nuts.

More Ruben Mateo

Brian O'Neill busts out the OPS to ask why Ruben Mateo hasn't been playing more.

A few week or so ago I looked at the Pirates' 21-day stats and was impressed that the better a player was hitting, the more he was playing. The only exception was Ruben Mateo, but he was recently called up. I've been disappointed that he hasn't been in the game lately. For sure, of late the story is the horrible bullpen work we've been getting. That and the lousy starts. But we can always use more home runs, and Mateo didn't get into the game at all last night. I even sat on the floor looking at this picture. For some reason, a "matchup" one I guess, Abe Nunez and Randall Simon were ahead of him on the pinch-hitting depth chart.

If this is a you-produce, you-play team, Mac will be giving some starts to Mateo. My sense is he won't disappoint.

Mac on Simon and Stynes

Ed Eagle reports these comments from Mac on the fans' sense that the team might be better without Simon and Stynes:

Chris Stynes and Randall Simon have been at the top of the hit list. Stynes, a .280 career hitter entering this season, is batting .212 with no home runs and 11 RBIs in 132 at-bats. Simon, a .297 career hitter before this year, is batting .200 with no home runs and three RBIs in 85 at-bats. The Bucs' Opening Day third baseman and first baseman draw a chorus of boos at PNC Park each time they fail to produce.

McClendon, who said that he understands the fans' dissatisfaction, explained why the two remain valuable to the club even as they continue to struggle.

"I understand people's frustrations," said McClendon. "The first thing they say is 'Get rid of them.'

"OK. Let's release them. Then what happens? What happens to young guys who come up and can't compete at this level? Where is your depth? Then you get hit in the [behind] because you have nothing left."

In Mac's defense, he hasn't been starting these guys and he's wise to think about depth.

In our defense, Stynes is fine as a bench player who specializes as a defensive replacement, but we have Abraham Nunez and we don't really need both of those guys. If Stynes can't play well enough to start, he's gotta be high on the list of first to go. Him or Noonie or Bobby Hill.

Simon only started his last game because Bay was a late scratch. If Simon could lose some weight and get speedier, he'd get on base more often and he'd be more likely to hit like his track record suggests he's capable of hitting. In the meantime, it doesn't look like he's competing at this level. The Pirates could get the same "production" from Carlos Rivera. The team should never make a move like that just to make a move, of course, but with Ward's strong play, Craig Wilson's ability to play first, and Carlos Rivera's ability to play a bit, the Bucs don't look exposed on the first-base depth chart without Simon.

The fans don't know if the team plans to trade one or more of the position players, so we can't know how exposed the team might be down the road if they lose Simon or Stynes. It does seem pretty clear, though, that once these guys have played themselves into bench roles, it won't impact the team a whole lot if they stay or if they go.

One other thing, Mac: now is not the time to talk like our current collection of players can compete at this level. I'd say we've been hit in the ass pretty good already.

... 2:30pm update ... on second thought, that's a pretty impossible situation Mac was in. What's he going to say, "Yeah, we sure got some deadwood on this roster." Depth is a good talking point for retaining people. He could also talk about patience, gotta be patience, and he could say when they produce more, they'll start more. He can't back into that corner where he's defending the deadwood like they've been productive or will be for sure a week or two from now.

Note to Bob

Re: fourth paragraph. Can we stop counting? I can only take so much mind-numbing. When the Bucs win five of their next nine, then we can look back and laugh at what a good time June has been.