One reader writes this morning to ask where he can get one of those hats that Luis Clemente wore on TV yesterday. 70s yellow (not early 70s mustard) with the handsome Pirate logo. I've seen them on kids at the stadium and thought they had to be a promotion; I vaguely remember there being the name of a bank or supermarket on the back.
Friday, July 09, 2004
Turn back the clock night
Look for the '69 style uniforms tonight. Ed Eagle reports:
Friday, the Pirates and Expos will turn the clock back to 1969, the first year of the Montreal franchise, by wearing uniforms from that season. The Bucs' sleeveless gray road jerseys will differ only in that the lettering across the front will read "Pirates," rather than "Pittsburgh," and there will be no name plates on the back."
Raise your hand if you remember the '69 Expos uniform.
I'd like to see the Expos go to Las Vegas, where they could become the Explorers and adopt the same lettering style and general look as the Montreal team. There would be no way to reincorporate that tri-color M. The current script on the chest of the uniforms could be retained, though. And Expos->Explorers would give Vegas a good excuse to be yet another team with red, white, and blue colors. That may be the happiest of possible endings for that franchise.
Roberto Clemente
With the Pirates in San Juan, there are a lot of reports about Clemente and the way the Pirates and Expos are honoring his memory. Steve Novotney has a number of great anecdotes. Joe Rutter notes the pregame honors. Bob Dvorchak does the same in his notebook. Ed Eagle has a note with a picture of Clemente in a tux on his wedding day. Lookin' good, Roberto.
Scoops
Bob Barrickman catches up with Al Oliver for the Beaver County & Allegheny County Times. Turns out he's a deacon living in Ohio now.
"Scoops" got his nickname because he made 140 errors in two seasons as a minor-league first baseman. That's in the so-bad-he-must-be-good category. Like a twenty-game loser, the guy who makes that many errors must be contributing somehow for his team to put up with such numbers.
Kevin Jarvis
A sign that the Pirates will need starters at AAA Nashville: they signed Kevin Jarvis, that guy the Mariners wanted to trade to us, to a minor-league deal. Link takes you to Joe Rutter's notebook, one of many sources reporting this today.
Thursday, July 08, 2004
Trade deadline rumormongering
Two general reports worth noting. Chris De Luca at the Chicago Sun-Times provides a list of available players and breaks down needs and desires on a team-by-team basis. He has both Benson and Wells on the list. His "source" is "writers covering all 30 teams." Not sure what that means; some of the worst and most unreliable writers are the guys who cover all 30 teams in a superficial fashion. I'm also suspicious of writers who insist the Pirates "are going nowhere."
Chris Kucharski at PittsburghLIVE.com did some homework and highlights some of the prospects the Pirates might be examining.
Phillies
Speaking for Phillies fans, Chuck Hixson writes that the Phillies would be "lucky" to acquire a pitcher of Benson's caliber. Brett Myers was awful last night; they need help. Interestingly, Ken Mandel catches the Phillies lowering fan expectations with Ryan Howard. Howard is a big boy on a home-run hitting tear. He's 24 and has no major-league service time. Here is his bio from Reading's home page.
230 pounds, hits left-handed, one of the slowest men on the basepaths. Sound familiar? In Howard's defense, he is 6'4" so the weight is not as heavy as it would be on a 6'0" slugger.
Ken Mandel reports that teams are not asking for Howard. It sounds like he's a few years away from the show and, at 24, that doesn't bode well for the upside of his career.
Giants
Kevin J. Cunningham offers his analysis of the trade market on a Giants fan site.
Mets
Jim Duquette signed a Cuban defector to relieve some of their need for starting pitching. Soler is a month away from helping. Duquette continues to bad-mouth the Pirates. He's using his bully pulpit - the New York media - in an attempt to browbeat Littlefield into making a deal that solves all the Mets' problems. That, or he's trying to blame the Pirates for his reluctance to make the deals that will help his team. "Hey, sorry fans, I tried to get Carlos Beltran and Kris Benson but those other GMs - who let them out of the asylum?" Fuck off, jackass. David Wright is not your first-born son, and he's not an unreasonable demand for a team that can't use Ty Wigginton and needs a third baseman. You don't see Dave Littlefield telling P-G reporters that Jim Duquette is stubborn and self-deluded.
Yankees
Sam Borden at the Daily News reports that Benson is "unappealing." The Yankees are making noise about doing OK with Kevin Brown and El Duque. Steinbrenner wants a deal, reports Mark Topkin of the St. Pete Times.
Finally, don't overlook Steve's report on what Benson says about a possible trade right now.
...just up: Bob Nightengale of USAToday says the Bucs are "lucky" Benson can pitch well. He talks up Colorado's Jason Jennings as the best available starter, and advises the Pirates to give Benson to the Mets. Thanks for the advice, Bob. Enjoy your free Mets tickets.
Stink night
WTF? Did they hand out scratch-n-sniff cards as a promotion? Who came to the park just to help Altoona "salute odors of all kinds"?
Willis Roberts
He's throwing 92-95 with a good sinkerball, according to the notebooks of Bob Dvorchak and Joe Rutter. They will catch you up on the weight loss and injury rehab he's done since the spring.
Mac on pitch counts
One of these days I'll collect all Mac's comments on pitch counts and see how they add up to some consistent philosophy. He's of the opinion that pitchers shouldn't throw too many pitches when they are tired. Here's a quote Joe Rutter's recap of last night's Kendall-charged victory:
Perez (5-4) won his second consecutive start even though he exited after five innings having allowed two runs. The departure was hastened by a 0-pitch first inning in which the Marlins took a 1-0 lead. Thirty-five of those pitches came after Perez got the second out."Another five and I'd have to go get him," McClendon said. "You're in dangerous territory with that amount of pitches in one inning."
It was 40-pitch first (note to Trib editors), so Mac says here that 45 pitches is the most he'd let a guy throw in one inning.
Pitch counts concern me not so much because of injury but because they indicate the total number of innings the team can expect to get from a starter. The odds that any starter will give the team 3300 pitches are not great so that looks to me like a reasonable expectation for a maximum number. My hunch is that the team should hope to get 200 innings from the rotation anchors. The Marlins got 201 from Pavano last year, the 2002 Angels got 200 plus from Ramon Ortiz and Jarrod Washburn, the 2001 D'Backs got 250 innings from Schilling and Johnson, the 2000 Yankees got 200 from Clemens and Pettitee. To get 200 innings out of 3300 pitches, a starter can't average more than 16.5 pitches per inning. Fogg, Benson, and Oliver Perez are under that bar, but Kip Wells, signed to be the ace of this year's team and often discussed as the ace of next year's team, is way up there at 18.4.
We have to pay attention to that if we're thinking about how to shape this team into a World Series champion. If he can only deliver 180 innings, and we've penciled him in as the ace, that's 20 or 30 innings he's throwing on the bullpen and/or on the back end of the team's rotation. That could be five starts for one of the AAA guys or half a season's worth of work for one of our scrubbier relievers. We'll take quality innings in whatever quantity a pitcher delivers them. If Wells is great for 180 innings, I'm happy, but let's plan for that and recognize him not as a number one guy but as a number three guy.
To get to the point, he's not been great and by paying attention to pitch counts we can get some idea of how to project the rest of the season. In Kip's case, the pitch counts were also a good indicator that something was wrong. Over half a season, when we see a slump in a pitcher's efficiency, that's a better indication that his ERA or won-loss record that something is different.
Another reason to focus on pitch counts is that they give a more accurate measure of a pitcher's workload than innings pitched. All pitches are not created equal but obviously 120 pitches from Kip Wells is probably more work than 80 pitches from Kip Wells. With the smaller parks and the reduction of foul terrority, pitchers have to throw more pitches than their predecessors a generation or two ago. If we focus on pitches as a measure of overall use, then we avoid the trap of thinking four innings are the same here and there, then and now, So there's a lot of good to keeping track of these things.
That said, there's also a lot of simple-minded thought on the use of pitch counts as a measure. Last month, Dan Malcolm posted a rant at Baseball Primer on the subject. It's not super-well written, but it's worth reading as it provides one man's candid overview of the ongoing debate.
Reporters and interviewers looking for an idea for an article or a series of questions might consider asking Mac, Spin, and Littlefield how the team uses pitch counts to evaluate a specific player. They are going to say that they do it differently for each pitcher. Try to get past that and see if you can learn some other rules-of-thumb they are implementing such as the one Mac mentions at the top of this post. Is 45 per inning the limit just for Oliver? If so, why that number and how does it compare to the numbers they have for the other starters?
Steve Novotney
Steve Novotney has been on a roll for The Intelligencer/Wheeling News-Register. Today he has a report on Benson's side of all this trade deadline fun. Earlier in the week, he reported on the youth of the Bucs. He had another story on Jack Wilson's reaction to his All-Star nod, but they seem to have it taken it down off the website for now.
Tickets in San Juan
Tickets for the Pirates-Expos series are not available through the MLB.com website, and there is no explanation, either, of how to obtain them. If anyone has suggestions about how to get tickets for these games, post them in the comments. Good luck, everyone who is looking for them!
Wednesday, July 07, 2004
Pirate attendance
The Bucs have averaged 19,676 fans per game this year in their 37 home dates. That's near the bottom both as an overall figure and as a percentage of capacity figure.
Curiously, though, they are the seventh-best road attraction measured by capacity (home teams sell 71.2% of their tickets hosting the Pirates) and ninth-best road attraction measured by total ticket sales. See for yourself here. In 2003, they were the 12th-best by both measures.
Why? I don't know. Two answers come right to mind. First, the Central has three of the top ten home draws: the Cubs, the Astros, and the Cardinals sell a lot of home tickets and the Pirates play there often. Second, the Pirates have a national reputation for being a doormat, and since people like to go to games and see the home team win, maybe they choose the games when the Pirates are in town.
Both explanations fail, though, because Milwaukee has similar home attendance numbers and a similar reputation for being a doormat. This year the Brewers are 14th as a road draw by percentage and 18th as a road draw by raw numbers. In 2003, the Brewers were 16th (by pct) and 18th (by raw numbers).
Here's the third explanation: everywhere, people love the Pirates. That Harris poll suggested as much. Why the low sales numbers, then, in PNC? Because Pittsburghers have contempt for losers? Or is it just the poor weather? The promotions have been great. How can you not go for Sauerkraut Saul Bobblehead night?
Pirates in San Juan
Don your Roberto Clemente jerseys: the Pirates start a series in San Juan tomorrow.
The Braves hit six home runs down there tonight.
Baseball America: Twins
The Twins are said to be looking for a starting pitcher, and they are unusually deep with prospects. Jim Callis of Baseball America runs down the current state of their "Top 15" list in his latest column.
Game 82, Oliver Perez at Carl Pavano
No internet the rest of the day for me so here's a thread for tonight's game.
Carl Pavano is a right-handed, tank-sized finesse pitcher (6'5", 240 pounds) who gets his groundballs. He's a lot like Jeff D'Amico (the one who started 29 games for us last year). Once upon a time, Pavano was traded in multi-player deals for Pedro Martinez and later, for Cliff Floyd, as he struggled in the early years of his big-league career. He's been great for some time now.
He should bounce back from his last start. He was the NL Pitcher of the Month for June. He's been very good all year. The Pirates have their work cut out for them.
Tonight's game will set the tone for the rest of the first half.
How they respond to the end of their streak will tell us more about the team than the streak itself.
Smizik: Sign Jack long-term
Bob Smizik makes the case.
Jack Wilson only won his arbitration case last year because he didn't ask for much.
Say the Pirates wanted to keep him, and they don't think they could better spend the money on, say, Craig Wilson.
Arbitration was good for him. Real good for him. See here, here, here. So, I'd do it again. He might make Carlos Guillen money - $4M to $5M for next year - and maybe he'll win his case. Heck, if he does, congratulate him. But don't give him his payday without reading him the riot act. He's not a perfect ballplayer; he can get better. And he got a lot better in well-targeted areas after going through arbitration. So I'd do it again.
Good news in the minor leagues
Mowing the grass
Check out this article on the Pirates' ground crew. I'm not sure why I liked this article so much.
Benson news
Today's Paul Meyer Q & A coaches the fans who are reluctant to part with players. Trade 'em all, that's my philosophy. When the team is in last place and would need to sweep a few series to get back to .500, everyone is available for the right price.
You never trade players just to get rid of them, but you can't be afraid to trade good players if you expect to get good players in return. Who knows what Craig Wilson might fetch? It could be worth a deal. One other thing: check out Meyer's rum-addled speculation about the Ruben Mateo trade. I hope he's right on that one. No hint of a source in that speculation so we'll have to wait and see. The Q & A closes with a full-on rant from Charlie Wilmoth worth beholding. I wish I could agree with him.
After overlooking Jason Bay as your 2004 National League Rookie of the Year, Peter Gammons has this about Kris:
"There is absolutely no pitching around right now except for Kris Benson," lamented one AL GM on Monday. "And Dave Littlefield knows what he's doing -- he has the one legitimate starting pitcher and he's going to hold out until he gets a position player who can step in soon." Thus teams like the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees who have chatted about Benson right now don't seem likely to get him.
For Gammons, the Twins appear to be the team with the depth to make a trade with Littlefield.
In Philadelphia, the players are whining to the media that they can't win a championship without help. That should put some pressure on the GM to make a deal.
The Mets want Kris Benson and insist cowardly they won't trade David Wright for him. Shit or get off the pot, Jim Duquette. Are you trying to win a championship this year, or are you just faking it, and hoping to satisfy the fans? If he wants to win now, he is compounding the error he made with Carlos Beltran. Any time you are contending and can trade some overhyped child for a Carlos Beltran or a Kris Benson, you do it. For all we know, Wright will hit like Jack Cust when he gets to the majors. Don't con yourself into thinking David Wright is the equal of Scott Rolen: he's never swung a bat in a major-league game. As we wrote yesterday, perhaps, if Duquette asks, the Pirates will throw in Abraham Nunez, who would immediately become the Mets' best pinch-hitter.
More and more I think Duquette is just faking it. He's too smart to not know the Mets could have anyone they wanted (Adrian Beltre, for example) starting at third next year if they make the playoffs this year. He's playing games with the fans, that's all.
The Yankees need a pitcher and the Unit is the talk of their clubhouse. They don't have much to trade so I doubt they can make a deal. Not unless they want to throw us a huge pile of money: "Here's $10 million for Kris Benson; go get yourself a third baseman."
Tuesday, July 06, 2004
Game 81, Josh Fogg at Dontrelle Willis
It's game 81, the mid-point of the 162-game season. And the Bucs are playing pretty well.
Doug Jones Josh Fogg will don the funny wig, the red ball nose, and the oversized shoes for the Pirates. He's starting on short rest but no worry. Said Josh,
"I don't throw the ball hard enough to get any wear and tear," Fogg joked. "When you are throwing the ball 85 miles an hour, you are not really straining yourself too much."
Are we sure he was joking? Thanks again to Ed Eagle for putting that quote in his recent report.
Dontrelle Willis is having your basic sophomore slump. In his last three starts, he hasn't lasted five innings. He's allowed three homers, seven walks, and twenty-five hits in his last thirteen innings. We all know that means he's due for a good game tonight. The Pirates haven't seen much of Willis. And that's always an advantage for the pitcher provided the pitcher can take advantage of that advantage (to paraphrase Tony LaRussa). Kendall has four hits in six at-bats against him. Maybe he'll continue to climb out of the mini-funk he's been in for the last ten days or so.
Pictures or no pictures?
So far the w/pictures look has only got jeers. What say you? Keep the pictures on the side - I was planning to add a few more - or stay text-only? There's no danger of images ever usurping the visual weight of text. Not here. And the pictures are small and shouldn't drag on 56K users. So I guess I'm leaning for. Still, I'd like to know how more people think. Reader e is a known crank so his vote only counts 1/2 (just kidding). Send email or leave comments and I'll respond one way or the other. Thanks and let's go Bucs.
Now with Pictures
Thanks to ImageShack.
Let's see what happens if I put one into a post:
You should see a Pirate ship.
I can't test the w/ pictures look in many browsers or with many operating systems. Kindly do me a favor and leave a note in the comments (or send an email) if they break your browser or don't display. Thanks.
Now pinch-hitting ... Abe Nunez, revisited
Today, Brian O'Neill calls out McClendon for leaning on Abe Nunez as a pinch-hitter. This is a glaring need for the Pirates right now. This year, the top two in pinch-hit at-bats are Noonie at .212 / .229 / .303 and Bobby Hill is .308 / .400 / .462. After Hill, no one on the team has distinguished himself as a pinch-hitter this season.
This is an obvious and well-known grouse and it's good to get it out in the open and subject it to the cleansing air of public debate.
When I discussed this previously, I wrote that I wished I knew the NL averages. Well, I found the stats, finally, and it was easy to cut and paste into Excel. We've been on the laugh-at-Abe bandwagon for too long now. It's time to be honest and admit Abe has value as a pinch-hitter.
With these pinch-hitting numbers, I can now report the 2004 NL averages for pinch-hitters are 0.231 BA / 0.306 OBP / 0.364 SLG. (Those numbers remind me of last year's Jack Wilson: .256 / .303 / .353. Next year, look for all pinch-hitters to make a huge leap forward.)
So Abe Nunez has been a little below average. But further study shows that many teams lack a pinch-hitter with his level of ability. Seriously, five teams in the NL have been more of a miserable failure in the pinch-hitting department: the Mets, the D'Backs, the Padres, the Marlins, and the Expos. Three of those teams are contenders today. Let's break it down.
The Mets are getting by with Eric Valent as their go-to guy. At .208 / .367 / .333, he's been getting on base for them. The next two most-frequent pinch-hitters, Todd Zeile (2 for 17) and Shane Spencer (3 for 17) make Noonie look good.
The Padres have leaned on Kerry Robinson and Terrence Long. Noonie (2004 build) has both those guys beat. They are clocking in at .130 / .160 / .130 and .200 / .261 / .250.
In a pinch, the Marlins turn to proven veteran Lenny Harris. Damion Easley and Mike Mordecai also fill in often. These top three pinch-hitters are murdering the ball at the rate of .125 / .160 / .167, .063 / .167 / .250, and .200 / .333 / .200. Only Mordecai has hit at Noonie's level.
Since the Mets, the Padres, and the Marlins all fancy themselves in the playoff race, clearly they need to go out and acquire a real professional pinch-hitter before the end of the month. The solution is obvious. Sure, Abraham Nunez struggled in his first two years as the primary pinch-hitter, but his day has come. He's getting better. Why, just the other day, he hit his first pinch-hit home run. Surely more will follow.
The Pirates should package Noonie with Benson and trade him for that left-handed, power-hitting, no-big-league-experience-having, can't-miss corner infielder. When Abraham Nunez drives home the winning run in the final game of the 2004 NLCS, Mets fans everywhere will celebrate the day they parted with David Wright.
Googling Benson news
Google news is too easy to use. Current highlights:
Mets
Matt Ginter (1-2, 4.74 ERA) will pitch Thursday against the Phillies, but his status - and Jae Seo's, despite praise from Art Howe - remain tenuous with Erickson potentially nearing a return and the Mets in pursuit of a pitcher via trade, particularly Pittsburgh's Kris Benson. -- Adam Rubin, New York Daily News, 7/6/04
DEAL/MOVE TO MAKE NOW: Get pitcher Kris Benson from the Pirates and send Matt Ginter back to the minors. This is more of a necessity than bringing up third baseman David Wright. -- David Waldstein, Star-Ledger, 7/6/04
Giants
Many Giants fans would like to see Sabean add a starter for a possible postseason run, and Pittsburgh's Kris Benson is the current flavor of the month. However, it's costly to get a starter and Sabean got burned with Sidney Ponson last year. My guess is that he'll try to strengthen the bullpen and wait to make big changes until the offseason, when he has more room on the payroll. -- Glenn Dickey, San Francisco Chronicle, 7/6/04
Ten in a row
It's hard not to enjoy the recaps when they describe the team's tenth win in a row.
Charlie Nobles hits on the highlights, such as Rob Mackowiak's diving catch in his report for MLB.com. Said Moses:
McClendon said, "Mac is probably our best athlete. He plays all over the field. He's a great leaper, sprints well, comes in on the ball well and has a strong arm. That was a heck of a play."
Joe Rutter leads with a signature joke in his recap for the Tribune-Review. Click over and see for yourself.
The rest of Rutter's report emphasizes the fact that the win was a team effort. Moses answered and said,
"When you're winning, everyone steps up and contributes," manager Lloyd McClendon said. "You get production from a lot of different people."That's the truth, Mac. A winning team is a group of equals characterized by each of the players taking control of the game at unexpected times and in an unexpected order. If a player can't step up and be the leader on occasion, he doesn't belong on the team. If one player dominates the leadership responsibilities, the team lacks the spirit of equality that invites lesser players to step up, and you wind up with a loser like Alex Rodriguez's Rangers.
Bob Dvorchak focusses on Wells' performance as part of a recent trend in his report for the Post-Gazette. He summarizes the defensive plays as contributions to Wells's final numbers, and he tempers the impressiveness of the win by noting that the Marlins have not been playing well. He closes with Moses. Moses said,
"The thing that's most amazing is the guys in that locker room haven't changed. They have the same attitude as when we lost nine in a row," McClendon said. "There's not a lot of things that affect them. This is most workmanlike group I've been associated with. They go about their business day in and day out. It's nice to see."
That's a good thing to hear from the manager. Even if it isn't true, it should be, and this wouldn't be the worst way to remind the players that they have to keep their wits about them. The last time they had some emotional wins, they followed them up with one of the worst losing streaks in team history.
Blessed be Moses
I really like the biblical side of Lloyd McClendon. It adds great texture to the passionate ranting and the Job-like suffering. John Perrotto also enjoys it in his report about the contributions of young lefties Oliver Perez and Sean Burnett.
You don't want to be overhasty signing guys to long-term contracts, but if I was scripting this soap opera, I'd give the first one to Oliver Perez. There aren't many guys like that in all of pro baseball, and he's tailor-made for PNC Park.
Expect Sean Burnett to continue his young Mark Buehrle impersonation.
Clemente and San Juan
For the Tribune-Review, Gabrielle Paese reports on the legacy of Roberto Clemente. The Pirates close out the first half of the season down there. Surely some of the players will stick around an extra day or two and have themselves a nice vacation, too.
Now pinch-hitting ... Abe Nunez
Some things are too obvious to overlook. Brian O'Neill looks at Noonie's history as a pinch-hitter in his latest Stats Geek.
Monday, July 05, 2004
More trade rumor reports
Yeah, we enjoy this.
Ken Rosenthal at The Sporting News reports that in addition to Benson, Wells and Meadows are also drawing some attention. There were nine scouts at Benson's last start. The Cardinals would like him and would offer Danny Haren. Haren was decent last year but got creamed the only time he pitched in the bigs this year. We don't need another pitching prospect, and we don't need to see Benson in St. Louis.
Rosenthal notes that the Rangers would be interested in Kip Wells and would consider dealing Adrian Gonzalez. If the Pirates can get power-hitting prospects of that caliber with that little service time for both pitchers, they should trade Wells and Benson. The rookies can fill out the rotation for the rest of the year and the Pirates can bring some Jeff Suppan/Rick Reed type into camp next year to compete for a roster spot.
Game 80, Kip Wells at Josh Beckett
The defending World Champs are in the middle of the NL East and right around .500 as we cross the midpoint of the season. Here are the current hitting stats, here are the current pitching stats. On offense, they are paced by three speeds guys (Pierre and Castillo) and three sluggers (Lowell, Cabrera, and Choi). The bullpen recently received Billy Koch in trade to shore up the ranks of the setup guys. Their closer, Benitez, has been outstanding.
Tonight's starter, Josh Beckett, is pretty famous for his playoff performance last year. He's great when he's healthy. Beckett is coming off the DL to start against the Pirates. He was out with a strained back.
Kip Wells will try to get back into a good kind of groove.
Steinbrenner wants Benson
As he should. From Dan Graziano's report for the Star-Ledger:
As they survey more realistic options, and are being told to wait on such potentially available arms as Jamie Moyer and Russ Ortiz, Steinbrenner is losing patience, which means they are back in the hunt for Pittsburgh's Kris Benson.The Yankees' front office isn't high on Benson, a talented right-hander who has a reputation as a bad clubhouse guy and whose wife, Anna, has her own Web site and a habit of calling talk radio stations to complain about criticism of her husband.
But Steinbrenner likes him and could order the front office to get into the hunt. Benson is making $6.1 million in this, the final year of his contract, and the Pirates are so determined to get rid of his contract that they may be willing to accept less in a trade from a team that can afford to pay him.
The criticism of his wife is frivolous and hateful. Obviously she's no distraction to Kris, and we can't start talking like baseball players are so easily distracted by radio call-in shows, regardless of who calls in to rant. If that's the strongest case his detractors can make against the pitcher, the Pirates should have no problem getting what they want for him.
Fogg and Bay
Great quote from Josh Fogg, who will go tomorrow on three days' rest:
"I don't throw the ball hard enough to get any wear and tear," Fogg joked. "When you are throwing the ball 85 miles an hour, you are not really straining yourself too much.
Fogg is one of those guys who suceeds by getting other people to underestimate him.
Jason Bay sat out yesterday with some tightness in his surgically-repaired shoulder. Expect him to miss games periodically the rest of the season. The Pirates have plenty of incentive to give him plenty of rest.
In the meantime, we'll enjoy seeing more of Tony Alvarez. Mac on Alvarez:
"He is a wild, parts-flying-everywhere type of player," said McClendon. "You take the good with the bad. He'll screw up from time-to-time and he'll do some good things from time-to-time. As he matures and gets to play a little bit more, hopefully you'll see less and less of the bad.
Both quotes from Ed Eagle's report.
Flamethrowers
OK, 7 games under .500 in the basement still stinks on ice, but hey... 9-game winning streaks RULE! GO BUCS!
While our glasses are raised, let's toast this badass for his Jose Mesa impression with the homegrown PVC flamethrower.
Sunday, July 04, 2004
Dust my broom
I'm gon' write a letter, telephone every town I know . . .
So ... Howlin' Wolf or John Hammond? Tina w/ Ike Turner or Etta James? Elmore James? So many versions to choose from ...
We'll play them all after a few glasses over discussion of this question: how much does it suck to be seven games under .500?
Enjoy the 4th, Pirate fans. I know we will.
Game 79, Chris Capuano at Sean Burnett
Chris Capuano is a left-handed Tommy John retread who did time on the DL recently for back problems.
Sean Burnett needs no introduction.
...interesting lineup today. We could call it the "leave no stone unturned" lineup. Alvarez, Davis, and Stynes are starting against the lefty:
Kendall C
Wilson SS
Alvarez LF
Wilson 1B
Davis RF
Stynes 3B
Redman CF
Castillo 2B
Bay, Mackowiak, and Simon get the early innings off and, with Bobby Hill and Nunez, give Mac a great bench.
... arggggggggh ... that J.J. Davis drives me crazy. He just misplayed a possible out in right field and probably cost Burnett an out & an single. This after looking awful in his first at-bat. Then a run scores on a sacrifice fly and J.J. Davis overthrows the cut-off man. Or did he think he could get the runner at home after he crossed the plate and went into the dugout?
... home run chris stynes! ... maybe his bat is coming around ...
... two-run double chris stynes! ... nice to get some return on that investment ...
... tony alvarez just made another great play in left field ... he's blowing davis away if the two are in a competition for playing time down the road ...
Anna Benson trade rumors
Who knew she was a writer too? Check this out:
KRIS BENSON has been awesome through six innings in each of his past four starts, fading in the seventh in two of them. Scouts have clocked his fastball at 93-97 mph and one said his slider has been terrific. But teams are still wary of the Pirate starter's heart, his $6 million salary and the effect he could have on team chemistry. Benson's wife, Anna, has written extensively about the couple's sex life and that of some of his Pirates teammates and had a Web site that reportedly crashed because it received so many web hits.That's Lawrence Rococca of the Star-Ledger.
Not cool if that's the kind of crap other GMs are using against us in trade negotiations. "Our players are sex maniacs, and they'd be distracted with fears that Anna Benson would learn about that and write it up." Leave the missus out of it.
Saturday, July 03, 2004
Game 78, Pirates win
John Grabow's ready to come in for the eighth. That's a good Pirate name. Kinda like "Jack Nyargh." Grrrrrrabow.
Get more runs please.
...nice finish to that one. But eight games under .500 is just as disgraceful as nine games under .500. Sean Burnett tomorrow will try to do something about that. In the meantime, gather round the punch bowl and toast the jolly roger.
Jacob Luft on Benson
Jacob Luft wrote this back in April for Sports Illustrated. It begins like this:
Three years ago, the Pirates traded away a career underachiever on the verge of free agency.Jason Schmidt, upon becoming a member of the Giants, instantly became the top-of-the-rotation workhorse the Pirates had been lacking. Schmidt went 7-1 for San Francisco down the stretch in 2001 and followed with 13-8 and 17-5 records in 2002 and '03, respectively.
Schmidt again
From John Shea's mid-July article for the San Francisco Chronicle:
The problem is there aren't many available starting pitchers. For every 10 position players on the trading block, there's one starter. And for every one starter, there's .01 aces. This year, it seems there's no equal to Randy Johnson (traded in July 1998 from Seattle to Houston) or Curt Schilling (July 2000 from Philadelphia to Arizona).David Wells is 8-1 in the postseason, but he's likely out for the rest of the year. Chan Ho Park, a free agent next winter, was shopped earlier, but the Dodgers' recent surge in the standings prevents them from making a move. The Mets wouldn't mind dumping Al Leiter's contract, but it would be tricky because he can block trades to 10 teams, including interested suitors such as Seattle and Cleveland, plus the Giants.
We're left with Pedro Astacio (the Rockies are hesitant to exercise his $9 million option for next year), Rick Reed (the Mets need to start over), Sterling Hitchcock (a year removed from Tommy John surgery), Jason Schmidt (new Pirates GM Dave Littlefield may have other ideas) and Jeff Suppan (the low-budget Royals don't want to pay $3.8 million next year).
Other possibilities: San Diego's Woody Williams, Cincinnati's Pete Harnisch, Tampa Bay's Albie Lopez and the White Sox's James Baldwin.
The dilemma is they're all expensive, either in terms of dollars or talent required in return, so the Giants and A's will probably take a pass. It is what it is.
The "other ideas" alluded to there reflects the confusion among some observers as to whether or not Littlefield would enter a "rebuilding" mode by dealing Schmidt for a prospect or two.
The Giants didn't pass, of course, as they got Jason Schmidt in a deadline deal that burned a bunch of other teams and forced some crappier deals for crappier pitchers in the final day of the 2001 trading season. Schmidt was no sure bet to become the equal, for a few seasons at least, of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, but the potential was there and the change of scenery - one from a club that struggled for years to a club that was in the thick of a playoff race - did him a world of good.
Jason Scmidt like Denny Neagle
Here's Stan Savran in the July 28, 2001 Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:
It strikes me as rather ironic that Jason Schmidt is now in the position Denny Neagle was in five years ago.Sound familiar?Although Schmidt is nowhere near as accomplished as Neagle was then, there are great similarities in the circumstances surrounding these two men who were traded for one another about this time in 1996. Despite his unrealized potential, which, in turn, has resulted in unfulfilled expectations, Schmidt is the Pirates' most realistic, tradeable commodity. Not because of who he is, but because of what he is: a competent starting pitcher.
With the possible exception of Seattle -- what do you get for the team that has everything -- all the contenders are on the lookout for starting pitching. You catch Schmidt on a good night with a significantly better team behind him, you've got something.
One might legitimately ask, "Given the potential upside, why wouldn't the Pirates keep him?"
Because they can no longer afford to wait for him to reach that tantalizing potential, because he'll be a free agent and because whichever team signs him for whatever money, they'll do so at an inflated price.
Game 78, Wes Obermueller at Kris Benson
Wes Obermueller is pitching his way out of a starting job. The Brewers have given him eight days' rest to prepare for today's start so expect some scrappiness from a guy whose back is against the wall. Wes hails from Cedar Rapids, IA, and pitched for the Hawkeyes in college. He is a finesse righty with no good strikeout pitch and some serious weakness against left-handed hitting. Fortunately for the Pirates, some of our best lineups are those stacked with our left-handed and switch-hitters.
Kris Benson goes for us. Benson is not comfortable against Geoff Jenkins. Jenkins has not been hitting much lately or this year in general. He's streaky and he's always dangerous.
Hopefully the Pirates will come out and play with some urgency and some pride. Nine games under .500 is no place to be seen. They need to put that behind them.
Benson like Schmidt
Sam Ross Jr. has a take on the Benson-like-Schmidt theme in his latest.
Benson's age (29) is no strike against him for a team looking for a two- to three-month rental. For that matter, it's no strike against him for a team looking to sign him to a three- or four-year deal. Whether or not he lives up to the standards of Randy Johnson or Sandy Koufax is a pretty silly standard; there's plenty of good years left on his arm for him to live up to the standard of Jason Schmidt. It's not like Benson is 37 or 41 years old.
In other Benson news, the Twins are scouting him, too. They have some good prospects, including a left-handed slugging first baseman that would fit our needs pretty well.
...John Harper of the New York Daily News writes that "The Mets would love to get Kris Benson from the Pirates."
...Kevin Baxter of Knight-Ridder newspapers (reg. req'd) has the slow wit to include Benson in the "lackluster crop of available players" this summer. He also mentions Jason Jennings of the Rockies and Jamie "No, we're not trading him" Moyer of the Mariners. "Clubs don't want to wait too long because the two, three or four guys on the market might be gone to another team,'' Atlanta GM John Schuerholz told USA Today, reports Baxter reports H-Wags. Baxter's a little behind the curve. In his notes he writes that "One factor that has gone overlooked in Cincinnati's revival this season is the improved control of the pitching staff" and then goes on to talk about how the Reds are throwing strikes and not walking people. Not overlooked, Kevin.
Ron Cook on J.J. Davis
Ron Cook was impressed by Oliver Perez last night. We all were.
On J.J. Davis:
Give him a chance, Pirates fans say. Play him instead of Randall Simon. But every time Lloyd McClendon puts Davis in the lineup, he does something stupid. Last night, in the Pirates' 8-1 win in Game 1, he failed to run from first base on a 3-2, two-out pitch to Chris Stynes. You won't see a high school player make that mistake. It's inexcusable.Davis can become a better player, but don't expect Mac to be in a rush to start him again soon. He's definitely behind the Hot Dog on my depth chart.
Heck, he's behind Sauerkraut Saul, too.
We'll take two
We have to find some kind of 8-RBI picture to frame and hang in our drinking room.
Bucs are still a disgraceful nine games under .500. Tomorrow they'll have another chance to do something about that.
In the meantime, it's nice to see some fireworks at PNC Park. They outscored the Brewers 21-3 today. Fun stuff.
Friday, July 02, 2004
The Bucs and Moneyball
Just discovered Chris Kucharski's work at PiratesLIVE.com. He sees higher OBP the lower you go in the minor-league system and wonders if the Pirates are putting an emphasis on that as they draft. Good eye, Chris.
The A's went for OBP not because they thought it the most important hitting measure but because they saw good value in players Now that OBP is valued more appropriately, what's the next opportunity for a small-market team? Former prospects such as Jose Guillen, Ruben Mateo, or Bobby Hill? Some kind of defensive ability? Bunting ability? Basestealing and bunting seem to be out of fashion and might be a buying opportunity for a team that has confidence in their value.
Games 76 and 77, Friday doubleheader
The Brewers are in third place in the NL Central and view the next few weeks as ones that will determine if they are buyers or sellers in the late July trade market. Here are the overall numbers for the Brewers' batters this year. Here's what they did last month. No one looks particularly hot or cold to me. They are a good team, even without Scott Podsednik, who has been limited and might sit out with some kind of plague. The Brewers are coming off a three-game sweep of the hapless Rockies in Colorado.
Chris Stynes will tell you it's damn hard to hit on the road after a cushy stretch on Planet Coors. If the Pirates can get a lot of movement on their pitches today, they could take advantage of this.
The Pirates will miss the Brewers' best pitcher, Ben Sheets, in the four-game, three-day series that begins today. Works for me.
For the men in wheat, game one will feature Doug Davis, a soft-tossing lefty with a handsome goat. An American-League castoff, he's won his last two starts and he's enjoying the best year of his career. He generates loads of groundballs.
The Pirates have seen him two times in 2004. In April he gave up many hits and the Brewers lost in extra innings. More recently, he threw six shutout innings to beat Kip Wells on a good day. No current Pirate has a meaningful record against Doug Davis. Chris Stynes owns a 5-for-12, one double performance. As a summary of past performance, that's exactly true; that's what happened. As a predictor of future performance, the margin of error on a sample of twelve is something like .280. All the 5-for-12 means, then, is that there is a 95% chance Stynes's "true" ability against Davis lies between .137 and .697. And that's only if you believe that hitters have "true" or "intrinsic" abilities up there in Plato's world of forms. (And this makes you an idealist. In America, we call such people "gamblers," "statisticians," or "crazy transcendentalists.") Anyway, such a thinker would consider Stynes' ability against Davis as a subset of his ability against all left-handers. He's hitting .159 this year off left-handers but .292 off them in 2001-2003. Confused? Imagine how Mac feels.
Perhaps the best case for getting him into the lineup tonight is the fact that the team has to play two. With his barky knee, Mackowiak is not a good candidate for eighteen innings a day. A manager normally uses his entire bench in the course of a doubleheader, so Stynes will be in there one way or another. Sad to say, but fans will boo and heckle him all night unless he makes a big hit or outstanding defensive play early. A lot of Pirate fans want Stynes to go away.
Why do we keep talking about Chris Stynes? My bad. No more writing about Stynes for a week, I promise. Let's talk about California-boy John Grabow, who was a maniac on Wednesday against the Cardinals. I'd like to see him do his strike-'em-out routine again this weekend.
Oliver Perez, our Amish-Mexican left-handed flamethrower, will start for the Pirates in game one. If you have been living in a submarine for the last year, Ron Cook's latest will catch you up on the who's and what's of this guy. Cook says "phenom" and other nice things. (Also note how Cook describes the Giles trade as "wonderful." Last year he called it "a horrible blunder" but, to be fair, there's no inconsistency given that he conceded Perez and Bay had a "chance" to be good. By "blunder" Cook alluded to not trading Kendall. If Littlefield sealed the deal by making the Padres grateful for not taking on Kendall's contract, then he deserves some serious credit as a horse trader. Or maybe he got lucky. Who knows. Either way, it's not sensible to make conclusive judgments on a trade that happened less than a year ago. We can only say: so far, so good wonderful.)
Joe Rutter also has game-day coverage of Oliver Perez's gradual emergence.
The Brewers tagged Perez on May 1 in a game the Bucs eventually won in overtime. Even with that rough start, the Brewers have a collective .641 OPS off Oliver. Better is the lack of power: they have no home runs and two doubles in fifty-three at-bats against him. How'd they score five runs off him in early May? They bunched up some singles. Here's hoping that doesn't happen tonight.
In game two, an unknown pitcher will take the mound for the Brewers. Their AAA ace, Ben Hendrickson, pitched Tuesday night so he'll receive no Sean Burnett-type callup. My wild-ass guess is going to be Matt Kinney, an enormous (6'5" 230 lb) 27-year-old righthander who started the season in the rotation. The Pirates haven't seen him this year, but Simon had two homers off him in a previous life. He hasn't been very good as a starter. With Wes Obermueller due up this weekend and struggling, perhaps they will give Kinney a shot to prove he's worth another turn in the rotation.
Dr. Jekyll Josh Fogg beat the Brewers on May 22. Geoff Jenkins likes Josh Fogg a lot.
Mac on pinch-hitting
Mac calls pinch-hitting "the most difficult thing to do in baseball." Bobby Hill is good at it. This from Paul Meyer's notebook.
McAnaney goes to college
28th round pick Patrick McAnaney will go to college. Be careful, buddy. College is not the best place for a future major-leaguer.
Horse-trading news
T.R. Sullivan of the Star-Telegram reports that the Rangers are debating the future of Mark Teixeira (Tuh-SHARE-uh) and Adrian Gonzalez and weighing their need for a starting pitcher. Teixeira's already making $2.6M so cross him off our list. They'd rather deal Fightin' Blue Hen Kevin Mench, whose claim to fame also lies in the fact that he has the largest hat size known to man. Mench is 26, hits right-handed, has some range in the outfield, and runs the bases like a blooper-show clown. Gonzalez is 22, bats left-handed, and plays first. Clearly, Gonzalez sounds like the better fit.
Randy Miller at Phillyburbs.com reports that a team source told him "the Phils have been scouting very available Pittsburgh pitcher Kris Benson, but are unlikely to deal for the right-handed starter." Ah, now we know they really want him.
Jon Heyman of Newsday reports the Mets could have had Carlos Beltran or Freddy Garcia for David Wright. The Yankees and the Mets are both scouting Benson. The Yankees prefer the Big Unit and the Mets also feel they need another bat.
Shannon Countryman of the Illinois Lincoln-Courier disses Matt Morris for losing to the "lowly Pirates" and argues they need an ace. Sorry, St. Louis, you can't have him.
Thursday, July 01, 2004
Kris Benson vs. Jason Schmidt
When Jason Schmidt was traded in 2001, I was fed up with his injuries and his inconsistencies and his character and his tantalizing yet unrealized potential. He got healthy, the Pirates traded him, and he became one of the very best pitchers in baseball.
Here's a comparison of Benson's present-day career stats and Schmidt's career stats on the day he was traded to San Francisco.
| Age | |
| Benson | 29 |
| Schmidt | 28 |
| IP | |
| Benson | 746 |
| Schmidt | 883 |
| Starts | |
| Benson | 121 |
| Schmidt | 142 |
| Wins | |
| Benson | 40 |
| Schmidt | 49 |
| Losses | |
| Benson | 48 |
| Schmidt | 53 |
| Win % | |
| Benson | 33.1% |
| Schmidt | 34.5% |
| Tm Wins, Avg | |
| Benson | 71 |
| Schmidt | 79 |
| K/9 | |
| Benson | 6.45 |
| Schmidt | 6.75 |
| BB/9 | |
| Benson | 3.54 |
| Schmidt | 3.79 |
| HR/9 | |
| Benson | 0.95 |
| Schmidt | 0.95 |
| ERA | |
| Benson | 4.33 |
| Schmidt | 4.59 |
| WHIP | |
| Benson | 1.43 |
| Schmidt | 1.47 |
A few words of explanation: "Win %" indicates not the overall winning percentage but the percentage of starts a pitcher won. "Tm Wins, Avg" indicates the average number of wins of his team while the pitcher was a member. For 1996, since Schmidt pitched about 1/3 of his games for the Pirates and 2/3 for the Braves, a number was reached by weighting the finish of both teams appropriately.
In 2001, when Jason Schmidt was traded to the Giants, he was 6-6 after 14 starts with a 4.65 ERA. Right now, Kris Benson is 5-7 after 15 starts with a 4.78 ERA. The Giants were 58-49 on the day they acquired Schmidt, in third place in the NL West. Schmidt went 7-1 the rest of the way. The Giants finished at 90-72. Schmidt made $3.2M that year and was granted free agency on November 5, 2001. Five weeks later, he signed as a free agent with the Giants.
Dave Littlefield got Ryan Vogelsong and Armando Rios for a three-month rental of Jason Schmidt. Now that he's asking for prospects like David Wright, is it fair to say that he's "asking for the moon"? David Wright, unlike Scott Rolen, has never played a game at the major-league level. Let's not wet our pants over a guy with no big-league experience. Perhaps such a deal is not in the best interest of the Mets, but Wright is a reasonable demand for a pitcher of Benson's ability. Schmidt's post-trade history does not guarantee how Benson will pitch the rest of the year, but Schmidt's case does provide a reasonable precedent.
Mesa in demand
Benson will continue to pitch well. He could be pitching here or in New York. No matter where he goes, the better he pitches, the more money he'll make on his next deal. I'm looking forward to his next start.
Q & A with Dave Littlefield
Ed Eagle interviews Dave Littlefield. Short version: The Bucs are after major-league-ready position players with power and they are ready to deal pitching. Evaulating the season to date:
"It was a pretty solid first couple of months and a poor June. We underachieved as far as the talent level of our starting pitching, played defense probably about per our expectations, and we've hit better than our expectations."
Main goal for the second half: Win more games.
Mighty NL Central
If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. This is no surpise to us - we pointed this out a month ago - but here it is from a conspicuously impartial source.
Meyer's Q & A
Paul Meyer is back from Key West to answer questions. There's a lot of good stuff in this one. A fan writes to ask why the Pirates can't get by as "lovable losers" and Meyer has the answer at the end of his paragraph: Pittsburgh fans don't abide losing teams.
He's also got the Davis-for-Mateo decision measured. I think the Pirates fear losing Davis because (a) he's a former #1 pick and (b) they were caught off guard with all the hullabaloo about losing the Rule V players. As you can see in more than one report, Mac is sick of hearing about J.J. Davis.
Of the five, only Jeff Bennett has contributed this year and he looks lost at times. I've never thought the Pirates lost much worth keeping in that draft, but I can't deny that they had room on the 40-man to protect one or more of these guys. Even had they protected one or two of those five players, how could they know Bennett was the one to protect? Sure, blunders were made, but the team received criticism - especially from the national media - that was far out of proportion to the crime.
Sam Ross Jr. on Mac
My experience has me agreeing strongly with this first paragraph.
Ross also breaks down both sacrifice hits from yesterday's game. McClendon did not order the first one and wouldn't have, not with Kendall already on second. That was all Jack Wilson.
Haiku
Bones wrote this haiku Monday night:
Suppan no-no? No:
All-Star Jack runs in circle,
Man-god Mesa wins!
Smizik recalls Bonifay's House of Horrors
I don't know how you call Tony Womack a "thick" slice of anything, but this rest of Smizik's reminiscence is very well done. It's been a hairy-go-round at 2B since Womack left.
Ah, the horrors of Cam Bonifay. If Smizik didn't write such things, I'd be more successful at keeping these horrible, horrible memories from visiting me as I sleep.
Benson update
Meyer has it. The Pirates want someone who can play now. Add the fact that other "performing" players are in demand - it doesn't take much imagination to guess which players other teams want right now - and I guess the Pirates are looking to package Benson and "a performer" for a deal that includes someone like Jason Bay or David Wright. (The New York Daily News reports here that the Pirates are bent on Wright, as they should be, in their talks with New York.)
Speaking of which, if there is one untouchable "performer," it has to be Jason Bay. If two, add Oliver Perez. The rest of the team should be available. When you're 11 games under .500, there's no point in getting too attached to the guys who started while you were getting there.
... New York papers focus now on Ty Wigginton as trade bait. He's too much like our current Pirates to help our current Pirates, if you know what I mean.
...what could the Rangers offer? How about that Adrian Gonzalez? he's a left-handed work-in-progress at first that might fit well with the Pirates' plans for 2005.
...the Indians are rumored to be eyeing Benson and, with greater lust in their heart, Kip Wells. I'd trade Kip in a heartbeat if we could get a good collection of booty for him. (Don't worry; the link is safe for work.) That Grady Sizemore hits left-handed and looks ready for promotion. Since he starred for Akron, one Altoona's main competitors, in the Eastern League, surely the Bucs have a good measure of him. From what I can tell sitting here at my Pismo, Sizemore looks like a pretty big jewel to lay on top of such a chest.
...more news that the Phillies want him. Cole Hamels is a left-handed starter the Phillies won't use this year. But he's on a the DL with left elbow inflammation ... that's a huge red flag. And Marlon Byrd ... is he the next Ruben Mateo?
...FWIW, Pirate fans run down Benson more than we should. Sure, his career record is not so great and it's been marked with injuries and periods of rehabbing in the majors. Reminds me of another guy who was "injury-prone," "inconsistent," 47-51 lifetime, and sporting a career ERA close to 5.00 (Benson's was 4.27 coming into 2004) when he was traded.
Good recap
Paul Meyer did a nice job with today's recap. The bit about Kuntz putting the stop sign on Wilson made me laugh out loud. I also like how Meyer doesn't bother to explain the bottom of the ninth. Yeah, he's right, we already know. That's a good piece of writing.
Jason Bay Rookie of the Year?
Rotowire suggests that Bay should be in the hunt for the 2004 Rookie of the Year award.
Someone help me out. My understanding is that a player needs less than 130 at-bats or 45 days on a MLB roster in the previous year to qualify as a rookie. Bay meets the at-bat requirement but the service time is close, especially if his 2003 DL time counts. Anyone know for sure?
I don't really give a damn about RoY awards or All-Star appearances. As a fan, for me they are distractions from the main event - the winning and losing - and I'd almost rather have a Pirate not win such awards. With RoY, you get these added expectations the following year. Better to come in under the radar I think. With the All-Star appearances, you miss three days of rest and risk injury in a mid-season exhibition game. Plus, both awards would surely increase a player's value at arbitration time. Sure, that's cold and calculating, but if you don't put the wins first when you're losing long and often, when do you put the wins first? After five in a row the Pirates are still eleven games under .500.
That said, out of a basic love of humanity, I have to root for our boys to win such things if those things help to motivate them and make them happy and so forth. They may be trivial to some fans, but I'm sure they are a big deal to some of the players.
Wednesday, June 30, 2004
Five in a row!
Another sweet victory as the Bucs beatdown the first place Cards with a broom. A solid team effort: Kendall, Jack, Mack-o-wack, and Rake Tedman combine for 10 hits. Chulo looks ugly on the basepaths but makes a nice play at first. Mesa's first blown save of the year is forgiven (Pujols can hit sometimes). Maybe now Bobby Hill will pinch-hit more often.
Big four game series with the Beer guys starts on Friday as the Bucs will continue to try to claw their way out of the cellar.
Down to the river time
I'm taking off Wednesday to enjoy the sunshine at PNC Park, and probably won't post again before Thursday morning. Enjoy the day people.
Game 75, Matt Morris at Kip Wells
As you've probably heard by now, Matt Morris is a home run machine with a miraculously low ERA of 4.27. He's given up 24 longballs this year, and he's on pace to surrender 51 (!) in 233 innings. All but three have been solo or two-run jobs. He's given up 100 hits in 110 innings so far, and of those 100, he's allowed 42 extra-base hits. He's a flyball pitcher so he's going to give up home runs. The strange thing is more homers (24) than doubles (18). In every other year, he's given up about two doubles for every home run. I'm guessing Matt Morris is pretty sick of hearing about this and won't give up any home runs for a couple of starts.
His strikeout rate has really come down over the last few years and his walks have stayed about the same. So when he's on and accurate, he's not going for the strikeout like he once did. He's brought his pitches per inning down under 15, which is good, and means he's a lot more likely to give you seven innings on 100 to 110 pitches. That's also good because he appears to be limited to something like 220 pitches for any two consecutive starts. If that pattern holds, since he went almost 120 the last time out, he may only go 100 this afternoon.
The lower K rate makes Morris a finesse pitcher, and that's also trouble since the Pirates haven't hit much off finesse guys this year. Even worse, his track record against the Pirates is outstanding. The current team is a collective 21-for-105 with only three extra-base hits off him.
In contrast, Albert Pujols and Scott Rolen are card-carrying members of the Kip Wells fan club.
Kip and the Bucs have their work cut out today. Go get 'em, Bucs.
Tuesday, June 29, 2004
Bucs win
Hey, that was a dandy. Sean Burnett is beginning to look like a keeper. And, it's great to string some wins together.
But let's not talk about a winning streak while the team is an inexcusable twelve games below .500. Twelve games below .500! That sucks. Maybe they will do something about it tomorrow.
Rake Tedman I mean Tike Redman "was the offensive star on a night in which the two teams combined for 12 hits" (says Ed). He's looking a little more like the guy we saw in the second half of last year. Just a little - let's not go overboard - but he gets a star for his pretty starless cap tonight.
Randall Simon had a hit and walked again. The walk was intentional so he's putting the fear of Sausage into someone right now.
All the jabbering Pirate fans pretty much agree that he shouldn't play now because he's not part of the future. (Myself included, of course.)
How do we know that? Not too many Pirates are signed for next year. How do we know who's part of the future and who's not?
Maybe the Pirates can get creative and re-sign Simon to some kind of one-year contract (with a pay cut; $800K is too much) that automatically voids if he reports to camp above a certain weight.
Or maybe not ....
Game 74, Chris Carpenter at Sean Burnett
We all know the story with Sean Burnett, our 21-year-old finesse lefty. The Cardinals have no reason to fear him. Edgar Renteria will be looking for a big day.
Chris Carpenter might be the closest thing to a power starter the Cardinals have right now. He's been their ace, but he's not much of a power pitcher. Oliver Perez is averaging 10.76 Ks per 9 innings and Kip Wells is averaging 8.47 Ks per 9 innings. Carpenter, at 7.13, is the best the Redbirds appear to need in that department. He sports a mid-90s fastball with a nice curve, and he's had excellent control this year. None of the Pirates have seen much of Carpenter.
He's a good story since he's really battled back from injuries. He had arthroscopic shoulder surgery on his right (throwing) shoulder last July after aborting a comeback from surgery to repair a tear in labrum the previous fall. The Cardinals kept his pitch count under 100 for most of this year. They stretched him out in his last start, however: he threw 120 pitches and outpitched Matt Clement with eight shutout innings. Carpenter felt strong at the end:
"I felt better the last few innings than I did the first few," Carpenter said. "I'm going to keep on going. I feel comfortable. I feel like I don't run out of gas. I expect to pitch well and go deep into games."
Expect the Pirates to pound Carpenter in the early innings and score, I don't know, eight or twelve runs off him.
Ward's thumb
Paul Meyer has the news in his notebook. He could be out for a while, but he's not lost for the season just yet.
Joe Rutter quotes Ward saying he'll be back in about two weeks.
The injury sounds like something that once limited Austin Kearns, but what do I know.
O'Neill on Simon again
Brian O'Neill has some fun playing at GM of the Pirates. His comparison of Stynes/Nunez to Benjamin/Nunez is a good one.
If Simon can get hot - he has four walks and two extra-base hits in his last eight at-bats, so maybe he's coming around - let him start and contribute. He can platoon with J.J. Davis. If/when Davis shows us he's ready for more, then let Simon go and replace him with someone who can pinch hit. It would be nice to have the big guy on the bench as a left-handed righty-killing pinch-hitter, but his track record as a pinch-hitter has never been good enough to believe he can do it better than Abe Nunez or Bobby Hill. A player like Simon can't sit. I'm not sure how it happens, but it seems like he gains two pounds every time he watches a game from the bench, and he's no good unless he's all lathered up. Maybe they could get him on the exercise bike for the first six innings and see if that doesn't improve his pinch-hitting?
Cook: deal Benson now
Yes, sure, makes sense to me. But let's not all get too eager and spoil the deal. Benson will continue to pitch well.
Jack confesses: it was dumb
Good partisan that I am, I was inclined to think that maybe Jack's baserunning wasn't quite as stupid as it first looked. After all, he did score and win the game.
Jack confesses, however. Here's the story.
With one out and the score tied at 1-1, Wilson drove a pitch from Julian Tavarez (2-1) into the left-field corner for an apparent double. However, Wilson kept going to third when he saw second base uncovered and mistakenly thought first baseman Albert Pujols was not trailing the play.That is John Perrotto's fine reporting. For those of you who thought the local media would play this up as hustle and flash, check out Joe Rutter's story and Paul Meyer's report. (Looks like Meyer is back from vacation. Send in your rants for his Q&A.)Pujols, though, was backing up, took the throw into the infield from left fielder Ray Lankford and threw to third base for what appeared to be an easy out. However, Pujols' throw sailed past third baseman Scott Rolen and into the tunnel leading from the Pirates' dugout to clubhouse, allowing Wilson to trot home with the winning run on the error.
"I've made some dumb plays in my time but trying to go to third base was my dumbest," Wilson said. "As soon as I took off and saw Rolen standing there ready to catch the throw I just kept thinking this is going to be all over ESPN and Fox Sports Net and how the headlines in all the newspapers was going to be 'Wilson's Blunder Costs Pirates Game.'
Mac on Burnett
Steve Novotney reports comments from Mac on Sean Burnett. From Steve's article I learned a number of interesting things:
The team's original plan called for Burnett to pitch the majority of the 2004 campaign for Class AAA Nashville. Once he missed action during spring training and in April with shoulder discomfort, not many expected Burnett would appear as a Pirates starter until after the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.So at the end of March, the Bucs didn't plan to bring him up here at the half-way point. And Novotney's wording makes it sound like McClendon was the one who made the decision on keeping Burnett around. Also we hear Mac shrugging off Sean's "bad" AAA numbers as the consequence of little injuries.However, after the start against Houston, McClendon decided to unseat right-handed rookie Ryan Vogelsong (2-7, 7.13 ERA) from the rotation and add Burnett.
"The fact is he's a talented individual who knows how to pitch. He's one of our best options to try and win games, and that's why he's in the rotation.
"He's had some little injuries that have made it tough for him to find his groove this season, but I think he'll be fine. He's built up now to where he can go out there and throw 110, 115 pitches just like the rest of them."
"He's missed some starts this year (with Nashville), Pittsburgh farm director Brian Graham explained. "But he wouldn't be up here if we didn't think he was ready physically. Nothing is that important. We're not rushing him at all.
Elsewhere in the article, Burnett complains that he's never been allowed to throw more than 100 pitches per game since he signed with the team.
All in all, I'm really pleased with the way the team has handled this guy. My expectations are low in the short-term but high in the long-term. I think he'll be a good one.
Pedro Feliz & Chris Truby
In the spring I suggested that the Pirates should be suspicious of Chris Truby's improved hitting. I compared him to Pedro Feliz. Well, now it seems Pedro Feliz is not the laughingstock at the plate that he used to be. After knocking the ball good in March, Truby has settled in at Nashville to rip it at a .300 BA / .554 SLG pace. These Sportsnetwork stats pages don't provide OBP (how dare they!) but Truby has 22 walks in 240 at-bats. 35 of his 72 hits have been for extra bases. Truby is 30 so he better rip it up at AAA.
I am not suggesting that the Pirates should bring up Truby and audition him at third base. If Pedro Feliz can put it together at 29, however, maybe Truby could do well all of a sudden at 30. Perhaps I was wrong to laugh him off in March. Fair is fair, so here's a spot in the weak sun of the blogosphere for Chris. If trades or injuries lead the Bucs to consider him as a short-term answer at 3B, we'll support him when he comes up.
Monday, June 28, 2004
Happy Jack
...Dave Pinto summarizes the play at Baseball Musings. His take makes it sound not like daredevil baserunning but like heads-up aggressive baserunning.
Mets want Benson
Yes, the Mets are interested. As they should be.
If that gutty Ty Wigginton hit left-handed, and was signed at the minimum for a year or two . . .
Seriously, what should the Pirates want for Benson from New York? Scott Kazmir or David Wright would be nice, of course. I don't know much about their minor-league players. Blake McGinley throws with his left hand and he has good numbers this year. But he's a AA set-up guy. How about Neal Musser, a 23-year-old AA left-handed starter? I don't know if he looks too exciting on paper. Binghamton leads the Northern division of the Eastern league so there must be some decent players there.
...tues ... Here's how Baseball America graded the Mets' prospects coming into the season. Preseason prospect lists are obsolete by now - Kaz Mat is there at #1 - but that's a list of names the Pirates surely know as they look into a deal with the Mets.
Baseblogger blues
Brian, at Redbird Nation:
As Dan over at Get Up, Baby! pointed out recently, winning is often less interesting than losing, particularly for a baseblogger. How much more fun it is to pick over the latest faux pas, the downward trends, and the all-too-human failings of our favorite teams.Groan.
Davis will start vs. lefties
Ed Eagle spoke with Mac about his plans for getting J.J. into the lineup. Sounds like he'll start the next time we see a left-handed starter. In the NL Central, that will be ... August? Seriously, with Milwaukee (four games), Florida (three games), and Monteral (three games) left before the All-Star break, he could get starts against Doug Davis, Chris Capuano, Dontrelle Willis, Michael Tejera, or Scott Downs in the next few weeks.
Josh Sharpless
John Perrotto has a report about Sharpless, our Hickory hurler who's afraid of spiders.
"I scream every time I see one. I can't help it. I hate them. It's awful."His recent streak of dominance coincides with him growing his hair long.
"I sweat 100 times more than I used to and I've got hair going everywhere," Sharpless said with a grin. "It's working for me, though."Funny stuff.
Royals get Bautista
For cash. I wonder if the D'Rays held a little auction and sent him to the highest bidder.
Game 73, Jeff Suppan at Kris Benson
The Redbirds have been the tops in the NL Central on the strength of leading the NL in runs scored. Their offense has been powered by Pujols, Rolen, and Edmonds. In six games this year, the team has roughed up the Pirate pitchers at the rate of .296 / .377 / .479. They outscored the Pirates 39 to 23 and won five of six.
The Cardinal pitching has been good this year. Their pitchers have been solid if unspectacular and plenty good enough to win games with the strength of that offense. LaRussa has a number of good left-handers in the bullpen. As with the previous two series, however, the Pirates will only see right-handed starting pitching. Randall Simon may start at first throughout the series, then. He's been a maniac the last few days, drawing walks, hitting for power, and diving around to make good plays at first base. The only flaw in his recent play has been his inability to understand the signs given him by the third-base coach.
Former Pirate Jeff Suppan beat the Pirates on back-to-back starts in late May and early June. He's a finesse pitcher who gets a lot of flyballs. We haven't done much against finesse guys this year.
The Cardinals beat up Kris Benson in his two starts against them this year.
Look for all the trends to reverse. Jason Bay and Randall Simon will both have multi-homer games and Benson will outpitch Suppan by a wide margin.
That would be cool.
Ken Rosenthal Benson rumors
TSN's Ken Rosenthal reports that the Yankees, the Cardinals, and the Angels have been debating the acquisition of Benson:
The Yankees scouted Pirates potential free-agent RHP Kris Benson recently; the Tampa faction of their front office is said to like him, but the New York faction does not. The Cardinals and Angels are among the clubs touching base on Benson, but numerous scouts and executives question whether the pitcher can handle the pressure of a pennant race. "He's such an underachiever, it's sick," one executive says. "He's tough to watch. It doesn't look like he has a pulse.". . .Ouch.
Clay, thanks for this find.
Smizik: Play Davis, bench Simon
His argument makes a lot of sense. I'm not sure I'd like to see that exhibition spirit in the middle of the season, however. Usually if a guy can't press his way into the lineup, then he's not worth starting. And it undermines morale across the team when some favorite son has a starting job and hasn't earned it the good old-fashioned way.
For sure, give Davis a start per series. The last time he played - or the last time I remember him playing - he was so bad, he would have cleared waivers eight hours later if every club had seen the tape of that game. It was bad out there in right field. Doug Frobel bad.
If Davis can't press for more time, don't give it to him. I may not be right about that, but that's the way I see it.
Home sweet home
As the Bucs come home, why not remind everyone that our home field is super-swanky.
Paul Hagan of Philly News toured them all and likes ours best. Jim Caple said the same thing, only louder some time ago.
I know I agree. I haven't even been to all the parks.
Sunday, June 27, 2004
Pirates score 14
After tonight's game, they are on pace to score 727 runs, which is just what we expected. But they are also on pace to allow 833 runs, which is about 100 runs worse than we expected. The Orioles had a similar scored/allowed split last year and they finished with 71 wins. If the Pirates keep up the .403 winning percentage they'll finish with 65 wins.
Last year, they scored 753 and allowed 801. And they won 75 games.
Revisiting the Giles trade
Oliver Perez, Jason Bay, and the work-in-progress PTBNL Cory Stewart for Brian Giles.
A lot of writers said Littlefield made a "horrible blunder" there because he couldn't get San Diego to take Jason Kendall. One website asked, "This makes us wonder, what was the point on the Pirates side of dealing Giles, if they can't also get rid of Kendall's contract?" The transactions expert for another prominent website wrote that "Stunt Chimp" could have made a better trade. After some false graciousness on the impossibility of Littlefield's situation, the conclusion was this: "That said, clearly, on the surface, Dave Littlefield blew it, not getting an awful lot" for Giles.
As usual, the people who were most wrong (and negative) about the current Pirates franchise were national-audience writers who pay little attention to the Pirates. Take Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci, for example, who wrote that the trade demonstrated "misguided thinking" and that Littlefield acquired "a whole lot of mediocrity" that "won't bring this franchise back to respectibility." (If you read that link, notice that Verducci leads with a letter from a San Diego fan who writes to gloat confirm his notion that the Padres made out well with the deal.)
Pirate fans live with such nonsense twice. First, we have to endure it as it happens. Then, we have to listen to it as it is recycled by people who know even less of the subject than the "expert" who fed them that line in the first place. Since a majority of all baseball fans are flattered when a guy like Tom Verducci goes negative on any one losing franchise, it's no surprise that such ideas spread and endure. Unless you are a Pirate fan, such essays provide another reason to feel good about your attachment to your team. (I.e., "at least I'm not rooting for that team.")
The thing is, despite the negativity of a lot of writers, most of the fans liked the deal well enough when it went through. Certainly the majority of Pirate fans were willing to wait and see, I think.
It's not wise or possible to evaluate fully any trade until three or four years have gone by. In the meantime, however, the trade is looking OK for the Pirates, and it's pretty safe to say that many analysts rushed to judgment.
Game 72, Josh Fogg at Paul Wilson
This is a day game after a night game, so look for a wacky lineup with a mainstay or two getting a day off.
Paul Wilson is a good work-ethic guy who gets the most out of mediocre stuff. STATS tells me his fastball rarely touches 90. Yet he's had a lot of success this year, perhaps because he's been more of a groundball pitcher this year. He doesn't strike many guys out and he gives up some walks. He's a finesse guy. He has no meaningful record against the Pirates.
Josh Fogg hasn't had a really good start since June 4th, with disasters in two of his last three. Griffey, Casey, and Dunn have four homers off him in 28 combined at-bats.
'79 Pirates looking up at Expos
It's Sunday, so the Trib has their feature on what the '79 Pirates were doing this time that year. They were four games above .500 and six games back of Les Expos.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)