Tuesday, May 01, 2007


Brian O'Neill looks at the new deal, fangraphs.

I admit I'm underwhelmed by these things. Of course the win probability goes up as the end of the game approaches. A football version would show how a last-second field goal wins the game, and for this a person might be tempted to argue that field goals are terribly important and field-goal kickers, terribly clutch. But we all know, as one of the tenets of the higher criticism, that football games are not won and lost on last-minute field goals. Both teams had 59 minutes to achieve a field-goal-proof position.

The same is true in baseball. A run is a run. In a 2-2 game, a run in the eighth is not important without the two runs scored earlier in the game. If the team wins 3-2, it sounds foolish to me to talk like the third run figured more in the win than the first or the second run. All runs count equally on the scoreboard. Preventing runs in the first is just as important as preventing runs in the eighth. And so on and so forth.

That said, Matt Capps and Ian Snell have been as good as anyone in the NL. There's no denying it. All hail Matt Capps, all hail Ian Snell.

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