Tuesday, February 06, 2007

2007 playing time estimates for Pirates, a.k.a. the Pirates sudoku

Non-pitcher Pirates enjoy about 5715 plate appearances each season. Recently they tend to be distributed, from an average high of 699 PA to an average low of 652 PA, along the positions in this order: CF, SS, LF, RF, 1B, 3B, C, 2B. You people will recognize that pattern as the typical McClendon/Tracy lineup.

Here are the players now on the 40-man roster with PA estimates by moi.

In center I see Duffy, Bautista, and McLouth getting time. At short, Wilson and Sanchez. In left, Bay and Bautista. In right, Nady, Doumit, Bautista, and McLouth. At first, LaRoche and Doumit. At third and second, Sanchez and Castillo, with Bautista backing up at third and Sanchez backing up at second. Catching, Paulino with Cota on Sundays. McLouth, Gerut, Cota, Rajai D., Eldred, and Doumit get some to a smidge of PT from a bench-like miscellaneous category which brings the YTD non-pitching PA total to 5715.

Here are the totals, in descending order, from most to least PA. Wilson and Bay, 650. Sanchez 600. Castillo and LaRoche, 550. Paulino and Duffy, 500. Bautista, 450 350. Nady, 425. Doumit, 350 250. Cota, 200. Jose Hernandez, 200. McLouth, 190. Gerut, 50. Eldred and Rajai D., 25.

Any surprises there for you? I will amend or defend whatever estimates you question in the comments.

... later ... updated to include 200 PA for Jose Hernandez. This is why the Jose Hernadez signing depresses people. You know he's going to play. He would be good insurance for the insurance. He would fine as a backup to Bautista and Doumit, the two guys who have less PT so Jose can get his 200 PA. But you know he won't back them up. So the team pours valuable playing time into this old veteran and willfully blocks the developing of two somewhat promising younger players.

If Jose Hernandez (and Danny Kolb, for that matter) are truly going to bring much in the way of "veteran leadership" and/or "intangibles," then hire them as coaches. I will acknowledge that some of the players gave credit to Jose Mesa - a similar signing - for teaching them how to be relievers. It could be the case that players like this have an unseen benefit for helping younger players to better realize their potential. But for every Mesa signing, there's at least one Burnitz signing. Or so it seems.

No comments:

Post a Comment