Sunday, January 28, 2007

On defense

John Perrotto has a report about Wilson's weight and the overall defense. This is worth reading and thinking about. I've come around on this subject. Call it Stockholm Syndrome if you want, but I think I now understand how it might be wise to put so much stock in players like Jack Wilson and Chris Duffy.

The Pirates were right, too, to trade the shortstop prospect before they deal Duffy. You can look through the archives on this blog for the last month or so and find posts from me explaining how I came to this position. To make a long story short, I figure Duffy over McLouth in center is worth a double a week. If you call their defense even and add a double a week to Duffy's offensive production, you realize that you are looking at a player that is very good. Also note that the Braves, who can do no wrong in some circles, wanted Duffy (Perrotto reports) to start in center for them in 2008. The Braves consider him a worthy heir to Andruw Jones' job, and that should be noted by his detractors.

Jack Wilson is another guy who I think is a good major-league player. He has to be on his game, defensively, but with the exception of last year, he has always been on his game, defensively. As Perrotto points out in that report, linked above, Jack Wilson was still an above-average defender in 2006.

When the shortstop makes an outstanding play in the field, it's probably not worth as much as when the centerfielder does the same. The shortstop has twice the opportunities, however. If a defender like Duffy prevents about one double per week (compared to a below-average centerfielder like McLouth), then I'd guess a shortstop like Wilson prevents two singles per week (compared to a below-average shortstop). But even if we call it one single per week, when you add that to Wilson's offensive numbers for the sake of comparing him to a better-hitting, less-spectacular defender, then I think Wilson would still hold his own.

I'm not saying he's a great hitter, and this has nothing to do with where he should hit in the batting order. So don't start in the comments on those themes. He is a good to great defender, I am saying, and this atones for the average to below average offense he provides. He is a good player. It's not his fault that the team does not win 81 games year after year.

Bones and I have been debating whether or not Jack Wilson is "overrated." He thinks he is--or, he thinks Jack might be the most overrated player on the team. I say no. I see no love for Jack Wilson anywhere. To be overrated, I think, a player has to be highly rated. The Pirates' front office love him, obviously, and his face is on the team's home page. And they do silly promotions with him, like the Jack-in-the-Box toy. But outside of that circle of people, I see no one trying to say that Jack Wilson is more than a mediocre to below-average ballplayer. Would you agree? Any non-Pittsburgh baseball pundits out there writing nice things about Jack Wilson? I don't see it. I'd say the Pirates have few or no players that are highly rated outside the 15212 zip code, so I doubt it's fair to say any of these guys are "overrated."

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