Nate Silver thinks Schuerholz robbed DL. Silver's PECOTA projections think Lillibridge was one of the top fifteen prospects in all of baseball. If Lillibridge outperforms Jack Wilson this year or in years to come, we'll look back on yesterday much differently. But in a world where players break their backs, kick laundry carts, get hit in the head with a teammate's bat while stretching in the tunnel, etc., attrition is the most likely outcome.
One day after the trade, I still like it. DL had a plan (!), dealt from a position of ridiculous strength, and acquired the guy he wanted to fill a position of desperate need.
... [6:25pm] Rowdy here. Nate Silver's PECOTA works from sound premises but achieves questionable results. I'll admit the system has not worked well for me with fantasy drafts the last two years, not well at all in fact, so maybe that's why I'm skeptical. There are other evaluations out there of Lillibridge. John Sickels just posted his grade, for example.
It's ironic, too, that a BP author would praise a GM for trading a high-OPS slugger for a "proven closer." For years that was one of their great hobby horses, i.e., debunking the notion (a) that closing was hard or (b) that teams should pay much, in salary or trade, for a "proven closer."
The notion that this A-level prospect may be the best player in the deal is laughable. It's knee-jerk contrarianism. It's the kind of stuff that would belong in The New Republic of baseball journalism. That said, it got Bones' attention and has some of the Pirates' fans a little shaken. Kudos for Nate for doing what it takes to have that kind of influence on people. All hail PECOTA, beast of the jungle.
Twenty-four hours later, I still love the trade.
No comments:
Post a Comment