Pat at WHYGAVS breaks down the second half stats and concludes that the Bucs haven't really been playing that much better, but have been getting lucky. While at WHYGAVS, look in the upper right, and vote for whether you'd rather see the Bucs lose a bunch more and get a top two draft pick or win enough to pass the Cubs and avoid the cellar. Tough call. At first I leaned towards winning (to beget more winning) with the assumption that DL would tank a top pick, but later decided that I'd love to see what DL's replacement will do with the second pick and voted for losing.
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