10%

The Bucs are now at 28-30. The BP crew project 81 wins and a ten percent chance of making the playoffs.

Is this a championship team? Who cares. As Jesse Jackson used to say, the question is moot. In baseball, all you need to do is make the playoffs. Then you have a good chance, esp. if you have a pair of aces, of making the World Series. The question shouldn't be "is this a championship team," but "is this a playoff team?" The answer now is maybe.

Or probably not. One in ten is far short of fifty percent or more, the measure that defines "probable." But one-in-ten sure beats the Powerball. So it's not accurate to use words like "hopeless."

Small victories: we'll take them. If you buy into the theory that the Bucs, going forward, will be more like the May-June team than the April team, you might expect those chances to improve. I buy into that theory. (1) Tike Redman is now a fourth OF. (2) Ty Wigginton is in the minors. (3) Craig Wilson is not slumping as a cleanup hitter. (4) Jack Wilson is back to 2004 form after starting the year out of shape. (5) Oliver Perez is back to 2004 form (knock on wood) after starting the year out of shape. (6) Kip Wells has got on a roll. (7) Jose Castillo is off the DL. (8) Rob Mackowiak has shown improvement. (9) Daryle Ward has shown consistency. (10) Ryan Doumit is up and should do some catching. (11) Matt Lawton continues to play well with regular rest. (12) The bullpen has not imploded.

I could maybe come up with a list of reasons to expect the team to revert to the April version, but I doubt it would be as long.

How cool would it be for the Bucs to go into Yankee Stadium with a record that's better than the Yankees? The New Yorkers are 29-30 and play three games in St. Louis. The Bucs are 28-30 and host the Devil Rays for three games. Stranger things can happen. On one hand, you know the media attention would fire up the Yankees. On the other hand, it would give the lie to the bullshit economic determinism that justifies so much intellectual laziness among the less creative half of the baseball punditocracy. I'm not denying that payroll is not a big factor. I am denying that the correlation between salary and performance is not as strong as some people argue.

I won't get my hopes up, however. If this reads like so much breathless optimism, look closer. It's been a long time since the Pirates have been able to sustain a .550 clip for more than a few weeks. They bobbed along just under .500 for much of last year, and little good came of it.