Like most of you, I scale back my attention to the Mighty Bucs when things hit the skids. It's just not that rewarding a hobby, duh, and there other things, like going to the zoo, that I can do with my time.
So I missed Dejan Kovacevic's M.A. Thesis on the financial health of the Bucs.
The way I see it, the payroll is more or less tied to tickets sales. The Bucs sell about 55% of their tickets. The quickest and easiest way to double the payroll would be to sell 95% or more of the tickets. The big-payroll teams sell 75% or more.
The PG estimates the team made about $13M last year. Their sources indicate that that Bucs are still more than $100M in debt for god knows what, Operation Shutdown I guess.
An additional $12M of payroll is not going to magically turn this team into a playoff contending dynasty, even if it's well spent. And what are the odds of spending it well? Drop $12M into players and what do you get - a Magglio Ordonez? a Chan Ho Park? or a Todd Helton? Can you get a Todd Helton for $12M?
Given that the Bucs have holes all over the diamond, I was on board with the plan to hold the money. We were all pretty terrified they'd blow the dough on Jeromy Burnitz or Juan Encarnacion, two guys Littlefield wanted, and now I think it's not unfair to say we were wrong about that. We could have used Burnitz's April or Encarnacion's April.
A lot of fans don't seem to get that the owners don't look to be profiting from the team. I hate penny-pinching illiberal callous-hearted bastard-bosses as much as the next person. In no way do I give a damn about Nutting's reputation. Let's all damn him to hell if he makes all his employees miserable and fills his newspapers with shit. Sign me up for that. But even if the evil Emperor Palpatine is stuffing that $12M in a mattress, and not applying it to the team's large debt, he's still making less than most of the superstar players. Last year, A-Rod made twice what the PG estimates the Nuttings could have plundered. The owner is not all-powerful here. There's no point hoping that these owners (or any other owners, for that matter) will swoop in and pour $100M of their own money into the payroll. That's not going to happen. That's not ever going to happen.
So how will the Pirates return to respectability? First, by catching some fucking breaks with the young players, that's how. They've already had a decent share of good luck with Jason Bay and Oliver Perez (2004 edition). They need to keep playing their cards the way they've been playing them and hope for more breakouts than busts. To state what should be obvious, the fate of the team is in the hands of the players we got, at PNC and in the minors. They own this team as much as the Nutting boys.
Second, to get a more competitive payroll, the Bucs are going to have to sell out most of their home games. Rising attendance will increase the value of the media contracts. Everything is tied to attendance, which is tied, duh, to winning.
We're not going to the ballpark to watch a team with a .400 winning percentage. Not when the zoo is less than half the price and every bit amusing for our small children.
You go to the ballpark, you drop a lot of cash. If the Pirates win, you love it and leave thinking, how soon can I come back here? Who can I bring with me? Fans want to share the winning experience. If the Pirates lose, you leave with some kind of nasty sick feeling. Some people blame themselves and say they are a jinx on the team. Others indulge all kinds of bitter vitriol. Others are disappointed to the point of depression.
One of these years the Bucs will have some kind of promising offseason. And they will start hot in Pittsburgh. If the Bucs were 16-9 instead of 9-16, much greater walk-up ticket sales would be there when they return to PNC.
It's like the old boating license story. You need experience on a boat to get the license, but you need a license to get experience on a boat. The Bucs need to win to sell out the stadium, and they need to sell out to win.
The only way out lies with the players we got. The addition of one $6M slugger and one $6M starter will not be enough. We need the guys we got to realize more of their potential.
The players own this team. If I'm the Nuttings, I offer an ownership share as part of the next long-term deal tendered to some worthy young man.
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