Tuesday, May 24, 2005

Bucco pitching, May 3 to May 23

Looking at the numbers for the last three weeks, I see that the pitching has been good, but not as good as I thought it had been.

  • Mark Redman has been a stud. He's thrown just under 30 innings and held hitters to a .200 /.241 /.286 line, a 527 OPS, which is sick. He faced Houston, San Francisco, Milwaukee, and Colorado. His control has been good, not great. He struck out an average number (15), walked a few (6), and probably was more lucky than not with balls in play.
  • Kip Wells has been good. For a power pitcher, he still needs to change some of his walks into strikeouts before we'll see elite performance. 20 Ks in 27 IP is decent, but 12 BBs in the same period cancels out some of that strikeout goodness. Hitters only managed a utility-infielder-esque .237 / .325 / .333 off Kip. He faced Houston, Arizona, Milwaukee, and Chicago. Redman's BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .235 looks lucky to me; Kip's BABIP in the same period, .289, looks more sustainable. The best part of Wells' recent success has been his ability to go deep into games. He's gone 6, 7, 6, and 8 innings without throwing more than 110 pitches. The combination of effectiveness and less-than-stellar power rates makes me wonder if Kip is becoming less of a thrower and more of a pitcher.
  • Josh Fogg is a pitcher. He continues to houdini sublime effectiveness from mediocre to poor rate stats. In his last 26 innings, he has struck out 11 (not good) and walked 10 (not good). "Control" does not come to mind looking at those numbers. Nevertheless, he held the Diamondbacks, the Giants, the Cubs, and the Rockies to autility-infielder-esque 0.232 / 0.303 / 0.337. Fogg does more with less. His .255 BABIP probably speaks of more good than ill luck; with that number Fogg has averaged right around .300, with the rest of the league, the last two years.
  • Dave Williams has imitated Mark Redman to good effect. He had similar K/BB numbers, a more average BABIP (.287), did about six innings per start, and held the Diamondbacks, Giants, Brewers, and Cardinals to a fourth-outfielder-esque 0.258 / 0.305 / 0.404 line. Three of those starts were on the road. His performance may be just as impressive as Redman's.
  • Ollie started twice in those three weeks, at Arizona (disaster) and home against Colorado (better). He's back at square one, stuck in March 2004 form. He struck out a bunch (9 in 10 IP), walked way too many (6), and got pounded at a three-hitter-esque rate of .293 / .396 / .537.
  • The bullpen has not seen much action with the starters going 6-7 innings per start. Vogelsong and Grabow have pitched less than five innings, Rick White six.
  • Jose Mesa has been wild, hittable, and lucky. In eight high-leverage innings, he has struck out few (3), walked a ridiculous number (7), and been pounded with five extra-base hits. It all adds up to a .292 / .412 / .583 line. I would call that wild and hittable. The .240 BABIP suggests it could have been worse. His BABIPs for 2004 and 2003 were .320 and .340. With hidden vigorish, maybe he'll finish 2005 around .280. On the year, though, he's around .302.
  • Mike Gonzalez has 9 Ks in his last 7 2/3 innings. You don't need luck if the opposing hitters can't put the ball in play, but he's had some, too, with his .217 BABIP. He's been wild, too, walking an Ollie-esque 4 batters in that period. That said, no one could hit this guy. Opponents went .115 / .233 / .154 off him.
  • Salomon Torres has been wild - 1 K and 6 BBs in 7 IP. But he's been effective without too much in the way of visible luck. Like the three soft-tossing starters, he appears to be getting the most from what's he got.
On the whole the pitchers have been average or better. They are not hurting the team's chances at finishing at or just above .500. It would unrealistic to expect these guys to shut down the better-hitting teams and win 2-0 games. But I think they will continue to pull their weight. Paired with a sick-hitting offense, this staff could take a team to the playoffs. I also take comfort in the team's depth here. With Zach Duke and Ian Snell more or less ready, or at least qualified, to work as the fifth starter, the pitchers look set to do their part.

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