Tuesday, October 12, 2004

Honest Wags NFL pick 'em: week 5 results

Ten underdogs covered in week 5 and the pick 'em results are not for the faint of heart. The junto was badly fooled in the tb-NO game and the oak-IND game: not one of us had the right answer there. No one can claim to have had a good week, but Scoop and his horse sense best survived the storm. Week 5: Scoop 7-7 (0-1 best bets), Rowdy 6-8 (2-4), Bones 4-10 (2-3). Scoop and Bones continue to hold sparkling YTD records, with Scoop at 44-30, Bones at 42-32, and Rowdy far behind at 35-39. No one is doing well with the best bets; good thing we never wager real cash on our genius. Bones leads in that department, 12-10. Rowdy has gone 12-15, and Scoop is hanging back at 5-8.

Week 6 features some surprising lines. I look at the matchups for the next week on Sunday night and guess who will be favored. This week, I'm surprised to see Washington favored at Chicago, Denver favored at Oakland, and Kansas City favored at Jacksonville. Jacksonville gets no respect from Vegas ... there were also underdogs when hosting Indy a week or two ago and when hosting Denver even earlier in the season. They've been a persistent bargain this year.

I smell a trap. In chess such things are called "poison pawns." You know there's something fishy about their availability, but you can't resist taking what you're given. A few moves later, you understand you've been a sucker. Chicago, Oakland, and Jacksonville look like poison pawns to me. I guess I'll be taking them regardless.

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