Saturday, July 10, 2004

Pythagorean standings before and after an 11-0 win

Read this article from the New York Times if you've never heard of Pythagorean standings. It's a beautiful and simple formula that estimates a team's winning percentage based on the runs they have scored and the runs they have allowed. I used it earlier in the year to predict the Pirates would finish with 83 wins after guessing they might score 725 and allow 700-710. (FWIW, they are on pace to score 750 and allow 765.)

Coming into tonight, the Pirates had scored 377 and allowed 396, giving them a Pythagorean winning percentage of 0.478 which is good for 39.7 wins in 83 games. (You can have tenths of a win in higher realms of truth). After tonight, they have scored 388 and allowed 396 for a Pyth. winning percentage of .491. That's good for 41.2 wins in 84 games.

If you are a dreamy idealist and believe their is a higher realm of truth, perhaps you believe that some form of the Pythagorean standings is more true than the real, material current standings. If that is the case, the Pirates won not one but 1.5 games tonight. All Hail Jason Bay, indeed.

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