The winter April cold can be a real buzzkiller for the players. They've been in Florida for more than a month. The guys who played winter ball, plus some of the guys who have been on vacation, haven't spent time up North in months and months. Now they'll play in cold, crappy conditions. We'll probably have some miserable rain delays.
The cold usually affects the hitters. It could be because it can be painful to make contact, or it could be because the umps get generous with the strike zone when the temperature is below 40. After their hot Florida play, it would be ironic but not surprising if Bobby Hill and Jose Castillo start the season a combined 5 for 50. Chris Stynes can't struggle all month at the plate and not expect everyone to bring up his miserable year with Colorado and his anemic spring hitting. Jack Wilson got off to a great start in March but understandably lost a bit of focus recently.
The pitchers should be OK so long as they can get loose and stay comfortable on the mound. Since the rotation is a strength, the cold weather should mean that the Pirates will be in for a run of low-scoring games. If the cold weather might encourage one problem - say none of the infielders can get the bats going - on the other hand, it might help another: a generous zone and frigid swinging will facilitate a quick, smooth start for the veterans in the bullpen.
Frankly, Boehringer and Mesa have to be two of the biggest question marks here on April 5th. Three quick and easy saves will buy time for them to screw up later. Get it done, guys. It doesn't get easier as the season advances. Mesa did OK this spring but you have to worry about a closer who strikes out four and walks three in ten innings of "good" work. Spring players hit .378 off Boehringer. Torres wasn't much better. Keep an eye on these guys. They worry me.
The April schedule looks good. The Pirates have four weekday series and three weekend series. The weekend games are against fellow doormats (a home-and-home against the Reds, a series at Shea). The weekday series are against teams that the Heathers consider powerhouses. They go to Wrigley and get the Phillies, the Cubs, and the Astros at home.
The Phillies are in for an interesting month since they will open their new stadium next week after a trip to PNC and a trip to Florida. No doubt they want to win two in Pittsburgh so one win at the NL Champs will have lock up a respectable 3-3 record to bring into the home opener. The Bucs and the Reds know that opening a new stadium is no slam-dunk. It will be interesting to see if the Phillies keep their composure amid all the high expectations.
Looking at the Cubs' schedule, it looks like MLB has decided that it's in the league's best interest to get Chicago off to a fast start: two series with the Reds, two series with the Pirates, one series with the Mets, and a series with Atlanta and Arizona make up the April schedule. The Pirates will put on their Washington Generals Tampa Bay Devil Rays visitors' uniforms to play in the Cubs' home opener (Monday, April 12th). How sweet would it be to win that one? If I'm counting right, the Pirates will miss Maddux in that series and face Clement, Zambrano, and Wood. Since the Cubs have nothing better to worry about in April, they probably won't look past the Pirates.
The Bucs catch a break at the end of the month when Houston comes to town fresh off a weekend in Colorado. Playing in Colorado has a delayed effect on hitters. Adjusting to the movement on pitches in Colorado is one thing. The tough part is getting back into a groove hitting a moving ball near sea level. Ask Chris Stynes what can happen to a Rockie on that first trip after a long homestand. Mac will no doubt have all the curveball specialists break 'em off that first Tuesday night.
The Pirates won't blow too many teams off the diamond this year. They'll win by keeping it close and finding a way to win at the end. There should be no shame in bobbing just under .500 for the first stretch of the season. With four of the first seven series against highly regarded teams, if the Bucs can finish April at 11-12, they should be knowing that they are on pace for a 83-win season.
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