The Bucs would probably like to start 2005 with Wells, Perez, and some combination of VanBenschoten, Burnett, Vogelsong, Dave Williams, and/or a veteran or two off the free agent market. VanBenschoten and Burnett need a full year at Nashville, I think, after starting 17 and 27 games at Altoona in 2003. Dave Williams will start for Nashville this year.
I don't think Oliver Perez has earned a rotation spot this spring, especially after he went to Mexico this offseason to pitch his heart out for Tomateros de Culiacán. The Pirates preferred that he not pitch in winter ball, but they consented as they learned of the "enormous pressure" he felt to pitch in his home country. Lots of things feel like enormous pressure to 22-year-olds. When I was 22, I felt enormous pressure to do all kinds of stupid things. Something about Perez's decision sends up a huge red flag for me. Is he that weak, mentally, that he cannot stand up to such pressure, and will jeopardize his career and, more important, the good of the Pirates, so he can look good to his friends back home? Does he take his place in the Pirates' staff for granted? Seriously, would he pull that stunt as a member of another team? Any way you spin it, I can't see how the decision sends a message to Pirates fans that Perez wants nothing more than to help Pittsburgh make the playoffs in 2004.
But that's not all. Since he threw his balls off for a month this winter, and since he's a 22-year-old, he really ought to be on a strict pitch count this season. Even if he turns things around, and stops doing this, a closer look at his career stats suggests he's not ready. In 216 big-league innings - roughly a full season for a good 6 1/2 inning starter - Perez has walked 125 batters and given up 35 home runs. The 235 Ks are nice, but let him succeed on a more consistent basis before you hand him a starting job. The Bucs should start Perez at Nashville and tell him they want better control and fewer long balls. And limit that pitch count. I'm not a huge fan of strict pitch counts in the big leagues, but when the player has control problems and wastes so many pitches throwing balls, I think it makes sense to do whatever you must to force the player to have more respect for the value of each and every pitch. If you waste money, you should make and respect a budget. If you waste pitches, you should respect a pitch count.
Remove Perez from the Pirates' rotation and the Bucs are a bit stuck in the short-term. By all means, if Vogelsong stays sharp, give him the job. He started 26 games at Nashville last year. If he looks ready, he should have a spot on the big-league roster this spring. That will send a strong, positive message to Burnett, VanBenschoten, and Oliver Perez. Take care of business at Nashville, and you'll have an inside track for a spot in Pittsburgh. Make them earn it each step of the way.
The longer the Bucs hold onto Kris Benson, the easier it will be to ensure stability in the development of the Nashville staff. If Rick Reed can get make three starts in the second half of April, the first on April 11, the Bucs will be fine with Benson - Wells - Fogg - Vogelsong - Reed. If Benson is traded for prospects, or if someone gets hurt, call on my main man Brian Meadows. He's only 28. Perhaps he's on the Esteban Loaiza career path (a top comp for Meadows on Forman's site). He's never been that good, but his value for the Bucs as a starter in 2004 would mainly reside in his ability to keep the Nashville boys in Nashville. If Meadows bombs - I mean really sucks - Salomon Torres can start here or there. If all hell breaks loose, the Bucs can trade an outfielder to St. Louis or Los Angeles for someone like Danny Haren or Wilson Alvarez. Or they can deal Randall Simon back to the Cubs for Juan Cruz. It's not like the Pirates will start the season low on trade bait, and plenty of teams have arms to spare in the first half of the season.
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